Career concerns incentives: An experimental test

Holmström’s [Holmström, B., 1982/1999. Managerial incentive problems: a dynamic perspective. Review of Economic Studies 66, 169–182. Originally published in: Essays in Economics and Management in Honour of Lars Wahlbeck, Helsinki] career concerns model has become a workhorse for analyzing agency issues in many fields. The underlying signal jamming argument requires players to use information in a Bayesian way, which is difficult to directly test with field data: typically little is known about the information that individuals base their decisions on. Our laboratory experiment provides prima facie evidence: (i) the signal jamming mechanism successfully creates incentives on the labor supply side; (ii) decision errors take time to decrease; (iii) while subjects’ average beliefs are remarkably consistent with play, a mild winner’s curse arises on the labor demand side.     

An experimental investigation of Hobbesian jungles

Hobbes's state of nature serves as the analytical starting point for much of what economists have written on anarchy and the formation of government. Unfortunately little historical evidence exists about how men behaved in a “state of nature”, if such a situation ever even existed. We conducted a laboratory experiment to create a Hobbesian state of nature and observe the level of economic efficiency subjects achieve. We also investigate Buchanan's conjecture that people would unanimously agree to a social contract against theft.     

An experimental investigation of Colonel Blotto games

This article examines behavior in the two-player, constant-sum Colonel Blotto game with asymmetric resources in which players maximize the expected number of battlefields won. The experimental results support the main qualitative predictions of the theory. In the auction treatment, where winning a battlefield is deterministic, disadvantaged players use a “guerilla warfare” strategy that stochastically allocates zero resources to a subset of battlefields. Advantaged players employ a “stochastic complete coverage” strategy, allocating random, but positive, resource levels across the battlefields. In the lottery treatment, where winning a battlefield is probabilistic, both players divide their resources equally across all battlefields. However, we also find interesting behavioral deviations from the theory and discuss their implications.     

How individuals choose health insurance: An experimental analysis

An individual choosing a health insurance policy faces a complex decision environment where a large set of alternatives differ on a variety of dimensions. There is uncertainty and the choice is repeated at least once a year. We study decisions and decision strategies in a laboratory experiment where we create a controlled environment that closely mirrors this setting. We use an electronic information board that allows to carefully monitor the individual's decision strategy. The number of alternatives, switching costs, and the speed at which health deteriorates are varied across treatments. We find that most subjects' search is based more on attributes than on policies. Moreover, we find that an increase in the number of alternatives increases decision-making time; makes subjects consider a lower fraction of the available information; makes it more likely that subjects will switch; and decreases the quality of their decisions. The introduction of positive costs of switching makes people switch less often but improves the quality of their decisions. Finally, if health deteriorates only gradually, individuals tend to stick to their current policy too long.     

管理者亲社会违规对员工创新行为的影响

基于多焦点社会交换理论,分析员工传统性以及不同焦点的心理契约在管理者亲社会违规对员工创新行为影响机制中的作用,并通过259份员工问卷统计验证上述作用。研究发现：①管理者亲社会违规对员工创新行为具有直接正向影响;②管理者亲社会违规通过上级—下属心理契约履行正向影响员工创新行为;③管理者亲社会违规通过组织—员工心理契约违背负向影响员工创新行为;④员工传统性越高,管理者亲社会违规对上级—下属心理契约履行的正向影响越强,且对组织—员工心理契约违背的正向影响越弱;⑤员工传统性越高,组织—员工心理契约违背的间接效应越弱,但对上级—下属心理契约履行的间接效应影响不显著。     

Personal characteristics and lying: An experimental investigation

We explore the relationship between personal characteristics and the decision to lie to an anonymous partner in a cheap talk environment. We find that sex, age, grade point average, student debt, size of return, socioeconomic status, and average time spent in religious observation are not related to the decision to lie. A subject’s major of study, the marital status of their parents, whether or not they were raised by a single parent, religious importance and whether or not the subjects came to collect their pay were important explanatory variables.     

The measurement of Poverty: An experimental questionnaire investigation

We re-examine some of the standard axioms used in the literature on poverty measurement. Using a sample of 486 students from Australia, Israel and the USA we investigate the extent to which individuals' perceptions of poverty correspond to the axioms. We find that axioms such as anonymity, growth of the poor and monotonicity are resonably well supported. However there is very little support for the focus axiom and the principle of transfers was the least well supported of the eight specific criteria for poverty measurement that we examined.     

Bayesian learning in social networks

We extend the standard model of social learning in two ways. First, we introduce a social network and assume that agents can only observe the actions of agents to whom they are connected by this network. Secondly, we allow agents to choose a different action at each date. If the network satisfies a connectedness assumption, the initial diversity resulting from diverse private information is eventually replaced by uniformity of actions, though not necessarily of beliefs, in finite time with probability one. We look at particular networks to illustrate the impact of network architecture on speed of convergence and the optimality of absorbing states. Convergence is remarkably rapid, so that asymptotic results are a good approximation even in the medium run.     

An experimental investigation of persuasion through selective disclosure of evidence

We experimentally study the interaction between a persuader and a decision-maker. The former would like to persuade the latter to approve a project by providing evidence on the project's value. He may choose a selective disclosure strategy on the basis of his private information. Our experimental design contrasts situations where the persuader observes private information or not and where the decision-maker interacts with a human or robot persuader. The experimental results confirm the theoretical prediction that the human persuader manipulates the production of evidence. Although the decision-maker does not adequately take into account such manipulation, the comparative static analysis across treatments is mostly consistent with theoretical predictions with a rational decision-maker. Our findings on the welfare effect of the persuader's manipulation on the decision-maker are consistent with theory. In particular, the decision-maker may benefit from such manipulation. However, the welfare effect on the persuader is not always consistent with theory, in that there are instances in which the persuader is not hurt by manipulation even though theory predicts that he is.     

An experimental investigation of overdissipation in the all pay auction

Pervasive overbidding represents a well-documented feature of all-pay auctions. Aggregate bids exceed Nash predictions in laboratory experiments, and individuals often submit bids that guarantee negative profits. This paper examines three factors that may reduce pervasive overbidding: (a) repetition (experience), (b) reputation (strangers vs. partners), and (c) active participation. Reputation and repetition reduce aggregate overdissipation, but they eliminate it only in conjunction with active participation.     

Species preservation versus development: An experimental investigation under uncertainty

The safe minimum standard (SMS) is a decision rule to preserve renewable resources, unless the social costs of doing so are intolerable. While unpersuasive to many, support for the SMS has been advocated by some economists for settings involving irreversibility and a high degree of uncertainty. The objective of this paper is to explore decision-making involving species preservation versus development within an experimental laboratory setting, and involving uncertainty. The experimental design implements a number of prior game-theoretic investigations of the SMS (Bishop, 1978; Ready and Bishop, 1991; Palmini, 1999), involving insurance, and lottery or combined games against nature. The choices are between species preservation, which possibly provides a cure for a disease, or developing habitat, leading to irreversible depletion. Econometric results from a random parameters logit model, using responses from 117 participants (across both U.S. and Mexican university student samples) and 9 treatment choices, indicate that support for the SMS varies across the type of game, the imposed maximum regret condition concerning the relative magnitude of the costs of disease and net benefits of development, a constructed measure of respondents' risk aversion, and other factors. There is also strong evidence of unobservable heterogeneous preferences for preservation within our sample.     

Gender differences in socially responsible consumption. An experimental investigation

We report on a simple experimental study designed to investigate the different gender attitudes towards socially responsible consumption. We use the Vote-with-the-Wallet Game, (VWG), a version of a repeated multiplayer prisoner’s dilemma that mimics the characteristics of the choice between a conventional and a socially responsible product. More precisely we test the effect of three factors: two different frames and an ex-post redistribution mechanism that transfers resources from purely self-interested consumers to responsible ones. We find that women remain significantly more cooperative (choosing more often the responsible good) when the redistribution mechanism is interrupted and are significantly less satisfied about the behaviour of the other players in that treatment.     

An experimental investigation of entry cost effects in sealed-bid dollar auctions

We experimentally study the effect of entry costs on bidding and entry behavior in common value auctions. We find, with entry costs, players bid lower in first price and higher in second price auctions, compared to no entry fee auctions.     

An experimental study of adaptive behavior in an oligopolistic market game

We consider an oligopolistic market game, in which the players are competing firms in the same market of a homogeneous consumption good. The consumer side is represented by a fixed demand function. The firms decide how much to produce of a perishable consumption good, and they decide upon a number of information signals to be sent into the population in order to attract customers. Due to the minimal information provided, the players do not have a well-specified model of their environment. Our main objective is to characterize the adaptive behavior of the players in such a situation.     

An experimental test of observational learning under imperfect information

Summary. Nearly all observational learning models assume that individuals can observe all the decisions that have previously been made. In reality, such perfect information is rarely available. To explore the difference between observational learning under perfect and imperfect information, this paper takes an experimental look at a situation in which individuals learn by observing the behavior of their immediate predecessors. Our experimental design uses the procedures of Çelen and Kariv [9] and is based on the theory of Çelen and Kariv [10]. We find that imitation is much less frequent when subjects have imperfect information, even less frequent than the theory predicts. Further, while we find strong evidence that under perfect information a form of generalized Bayesian behavior adequately explains behavior in the laboratory, under imperfect information behavior is not consistent even with this generalization of Bayesian behavior.Received: 29 January 2002, Revised: 12 May 2004, JEL Classification Numbers: C92, D8. Correspondence to: Boaçhan ÇelenWe completed most of this paper when we were both graduate students at New York University. This research was supported by the Center for Experimental Social Sciences (C.E.S.S.) and the C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics at New York University. We are grateful to Andrew Schotter for his guidance and to an anonymous referee for his comments. We benefited from the expositional suggestions of William Baumol. We also acknowledge helpful discussions of Colin Camerer, Liran Einav, Xavier Gabaix, Douglas Gale, Charles Holt, David Laibson, and Matthew Rabin. We also benefited from suggestions by the participants of the 2002 International ESA Meeting and seminars at several universities.     

Compulsory versus voluntary voting: An experimental study

We report on an experiment comparing compulsory and voluntary voting institutions in a voting game with common preferences. Rational choice theory predicts sharp differences in voter behavior between these two institutions. If voting is compulsory, then voters may find it rational to vote insincerely, i.e., against their private information. If voting is voluntary so that abstention is allowed, then sincere voting in accordance with a voter's private information is always rational while participation may become strategic. We find strong support for these theoretical predictions in our experimental data. Moreover, voters adapt their decisions to the voting institution in place in such a way as to make the group decision accuracy differences between the two voting institutions negligible. The latter finding may serve to rationalize the co-existence of compulsory and voluntary voting institutions in nature.     

Culture and labour productivity: An empirical investigation

Culture is considered as one of the most powerful forces that shape human behaviour and thereby economic activity. This paper investigates the effects of culture on labour productivity and examines the cultural traits driving this relationship. Using panel data analysis, empirical evidence is provided covering a sample of 34 OECD countries over a wide period of three decades. Our empirical results suggest a significant positive relationship between the cultural background and labour productivity. The main channels of this positive impact are control and work ethic environment, while obedience has a negative impact on productivity. These findings are robust to a series of robustness checks, including alternative cultural measures, additional control variables, various country samples, and alternative specifications.     

An experimental investigation of the explosive effect in almost common value auctions

With only two bidders, a slight private value advantage in a common value auction is predicted to have an explosive effect on the allocation and revenue of the auction when using a second price and/or English clock mechanism. This paper uses the “wallet game” in an English clock mechanism with two players to test these predictions. The results show that the effect is proportional, not explosive, confirming the results of past experiments. A behavioral model with two types of players, naive and sophisticated, is developed and tested against the experimental data. In the model, naive players use a rule of thumb bidding function, while the sophisticated players are fully rational and, when forming their strategy (choosing the best response), correctly account for the probability that a rival is naive or sophisticated. We use cluster analysis to classify the players in the symmetric auctions as naive or sophisticated and a strict win/lose criteria to classify players in the asymmetric auctions. We find that those players classified as sophisticated are more aggressive in responding to high signals or advantaged status than their naive counterparts, but do not lower their bids relative to the naive players when receiving low signals or when regular.     

An experimental investigation of wage taxation and unemployment in closed and open economies

We investigate experimentally the economic effects of wage taxation to finance unemployment benefits for a closed economy and an international economy. The main findings are the following. (i) There is clear evidence of a vicious circle in the dynamic interaction between the wage tax and unemployment. (ii) Employment is boosted by budget deficits but subsequent tax rate adjustments to balance the budget lead to employment levels substantially lower than theoretically predicted. (iii) A sales risk for producers due to price uncertainty on output markets appears to cause a downward pressure on factor employment. For labor the wage tax exacerbates this adverse effect.