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在控制理论的基础上,综合运用订货点补货策略、指数平滑预测方法以及滑动平均预测方法,在传统的供应链传递函数上进行改进,得出基于供应商管理库存(VMI)的传递函数,并通过该函数的结构图对其进行了Simulink仿真分析,验证了该方法控制“牛鞭效应”的有效性. 相似文献
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为了提高液压伺服系统的控制精度,文章对液压伺服系统中的一些非线性参数进行了预测与估计。参数估计之前,首先对目标液压工作系统进行了建模与参数化描述,抽取了其控制和工作模型,计算并推导了模型中主要的液压参数直接的数学关系,如液压受力分析、受力传递函数、噪声信号过滤函数等。在此基础上,采用最小二乘估计算法对液压伺服系统中的非线性参数进行预测,给出了详细的参数分析过程和预测参数推导过程,建立了主要参数的估计计算公式。最后,对所估计的非线性参数进行了仿真和测试。结果表明,文章所选择的参数预测结果与实际的运行结果基本吻合,预测算法参数估计误差小。 相似文献
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为了提高液压伺服系统的控制精度,文章对液压伺服系统中的一些非线性参数进行了预测与估计.参数估计之前,首先对目标液压工作系统进行了建模与参数化描述,抽取了其控制和工作模型,计算并推导了模型中主要的液压参数直接的数学关系,如液压受力分析、受力传递函数、噪声信号过滤函数等.在此基础上,采用最小二乘估计算法对液压伺服系统中的非线性参数进行预测,给出了详细的参数分析过程和预测参数推导过程,建立了主要参数的估计计算公式.最后,对所估计的非线性参数进行了仿真和测试.结果表明,文章所选择的参数预测结果与实际的运行结果基本吻合,预测算法参数估计误差小. 相似文献
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针对矿井自动化排水问题,提出了基于涌水量预测的矿井自动化排水控制方法。首先构建自动化排水网络,然后采用历史数据对矿井涌水量进行预测,利用预测结果确定投入工作的水泵数量。在MATLAB中仿真表明,该方法具有较好的适应性。 相似文献
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指数趋势模型在工程成本预测中的应用 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
在实施"低成本战略"市场环境下,各种成本预测方法层出不穷。针对工程项目的实际情况,把工程项目进行从粗到细的层次划分;然后提出了一种新的预测算法——指数趋势模型算法,对施工企业的工程成本进行预测;最后,以一个算例对该模型的运用进行分析。 相似文献
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运用GM(1,1)模型对"十二五"规划期间广西航空市场货邮吞吐量进行了预测,得出"十二五"末广西航空货邮吞吐量将达到15.8万吨。通过预测数据与实际数据对比表明该方法的预测精度较高,有一定的应用价值。 相似文献
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研究了煤矿机电生产成本发生的行业特点,阐述了矿井机电成本管理控制应当以历史数据为参考"正推"分解机电成本管理目标方法,采取设计、技术创新、全员成本控制等机电过程成本控制方法,实现客观过程成本的优化,同时加强人本成本控制理念,在"隐性"机电成本上实现最大的节约。总结了机电成本的事前预测、事中控制、事后分析过程控制方法,实现煤矿机电生产成本控制的最优化。 相似文献
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《International Journal of Forecasting》2019,35(1):170-180
Forecasts have traditionally served as the basis for planning and executing supply chain activities. Forecasts drive supply chain decisions, and they have become critically important due to increasing customer expectations, shortening lead times, and the need to manage scarce resources. Over the last ten years, advances in technology and data collection systems have resulted in the generation of huge volumes of data on a wide variety of topics and at great speed. This paper reviews the impact that this explosion of data is having on product forecasting and how it is improving it. While much of this review will focus on time series data, we will also explore how such data can be used to obtain insights into consumer behavior, and the impact of such data on organizational forecasting. 相似文献
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电力的充足供应能够有效保证人们的社会生活良好运转,确保电网系统的正常稳定运行是维持电力持续供应的关键,而电力负荷控制系统则能够为电网系统正常供电提供保障。电力负荷控制系统的工作特性决定了其在需求侧管理中能够发挥很大的作用,控制系统能够及时了解电力使用者的电力负荷变化,从而为电力预测工作提供信息基础。 相似文献
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R F Palevich 《Hospital materiel management quarterly》1999,20(3):54-63
This article describes how Do It Best Corp. has used technology to improve its supply chain management. Among other topics it discusses the company's use of electronic data interchange, the Internet, electronic forecasting, and warehouse management systems to gain substantial savings and increase its competitiveness. 相似文献
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基于供应链成员间知识转移的过程视角,对供应链成员间知识转移的过程进行系统分析。从理论上探讨供应链成员间知识转移的主要因素,基于变量间的逻辑关系推演出供应链成员间知识转移影响因素与知识转移绩效关系的概念模型。引入加权小世界网络分析方法,构建了供应链成员间知识转移绩效的定量评价模型,为供应链成员间以最小的成本来减少知识转移阻力,提高知识转移绩效提供了指导。 相似文献
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协同规划、预测和补给(CPFR)是20世纪90年代末出现的一种新型供应链管理技术,更是一种面向供应链的新型合作伙伴关系策略,对于供应链伙伴改善合作关系、提高预测准确度和供应链效率、减少库存、提高消费者满意程度等均有重要的意义。本文阐述了协同规划、预测和补给(CPFR)的概念和特点,分析了基于CPFR的合作任务、合作关系和其运作流程。 相似文献
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Trichy V. KrishnanAuthor Vitae Tony BeebeAuthor Vitae 《International Journal of Forecasting》2011,27(4):1160
Business-to-Business (B2B) services companies invest heavily in acquiring very expensive assets that they hire out to serve their clients (e.g. UPS buys huge warehouses and hires them out to companies), and hence they engage in careful long-term planning and forecasting, especially when it concerns a new market. It is interesting to note that the client-firms, on the other hand, decide to hire those assets based mostly on the prevailing short-term market forces. Hence, it is important for the companies which provide the assets for hire to also build the prevailing short-term market trends into their long-term forecasting and planning. In this paper, we develop a model for tracking these two simultaneously evolving and interacting patterns, namely the asset-availability (i.e. supply) and utilization (i.e. demand) patterns, in order to better understand the underlying processes, and thereby provide a basis for better forecasting. We test our models using three sets of data collected from the oil drilling industry, and find the proposed model to provide a good fit and forecasting efficiency. 相似文献
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运用纳什均衡和贝叶斯更新模型,得到了供应链联合预测均衡的存在条件。模型中,供应商和零售商均需决定在预测技术上的投资水平,双方的需求预测将会被汇总成一个统一的预测。结果表明,双方预测能力越接近中等水平,越容易实现联合预测。预测能力偏离中等水平越远,越容易出现搭便车行为,即至少有一方不进行预测。 相似文献
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《International Journal of Forecasting》2022,38(1):209-223
Retailers supply a wide range of stock keeping units (SKUs), which may differ for example in terms of demand quantity, demand frequency, demand regularity, and demand variation. Given this diversity in demand patterns, it is unlikely that any single model for demand forecasting can yield the highest forecasting accuracy across all SKUs. To save costs through improved forecasting, there is thus a need to match any given demand pattern to its most appropriate prediction model. To this end, we propose an automated model selection framework for retail demand forecasting. Specifically, we consider model selection as a classification problem, where classes correspond to the different models available for forecasting. We first build labeled training data based on the models’ performances in previous demand periods with similar demand characteristics. For future data, we then automatically select the most promising model via classification based on the labeled training data. The performance is measured by economic profitability, taking into account asymmetric shortage and inventory costs. In an exploratory case study using data from an e-grocery retailer, we compare our approach to established benchmarks. We find promising results, but also that no single approach clearly outperforms its competitors, underlying the need for case-specific solutions. 相似文献