商业银行非系统性风险识别、网络传染及规模测度

商业银行的"影子银行"业务促使银行间市场交易量剧增,系统性风险积累严重,而系统性风险大小与各家商业银行非系统性风险、风险传染路径与规模有关。通过考察现有金融市场环境下银行间市场交易特征,引入一系列假设和变量对商业银行非系统性风险进行识别,利用网络模型估测风险传染及规模,并最终运用Logit模型找到影响因素。研究发现,(1)商业银行各类表内影子银行业务存在明显的业务替代性和刚性,并对银行间市场流动性资金过度依赖,系统性风险持续积累;(2)在复杂的金融网络结构下,商业银行风险传染体现为流动性风险与偿付性风险的交叉传染过程。当前我国银行系统体现为较强的流动性风险;(3)风险传染与商业银行非系统性风险有关,而非系统性风险与银行资产配置、交易头寸以及资本金等多项因素有关。     

我国银行系统性风险传染的风险估测

近年来的金融危机凸显了评估一个国家或地区系统性风险传染效应的紧迫性和重要性,是否存在系统性风险成为衡量金融安全的一个重要方面。本文利用矩阵法构建我国银行的风险传染模型,用最小二乘法和相对熵两种方法分析了不同损失水平下单家银行倒闭可能引起的系统性风险传染。结果表明:最小二乘方法下的风险敞口矩阵更符合实际;2005年的银行风险传染过程会发生一到二轮,且受到负面影响的主要是股份制银行;由于银行核心资本的提高,2009年的风险传染则几乎不会发生。     

基于传染渠道的银行系统性风险研究述评

2007年~2009年的金融危机更加强调了银行系统性风险在金融危机形成中的作用,从而引起了学术界和金融监管部门对银行系统性风险更为广泛的关注。文章在对银行系统性风险内涵梳理的基础上,从银行系统性风险的有形传染渠道和无形传染渠道,对银行系统性风险相关理论与实证研究进行了系统的评述,最后对银行系统性风险未来研究方向做出了展望。     

浅析影子银行对商业银行的影响及风险管控措施

近几年,影子银行与商业银行密而广的联系,日益突出,存在的风险交叉传递,对商业银行体系稳定性形成威胁,有产生系统性风险的可能性,探讨影子银行对商业银行的影响及风险管控措施显得尤为重要。     

我国影子银行与商业银行融合及风险防范的研究

近年来,影子银行在我国迅速发展,很大程度上促进了商业银行业务创新,弥补了商业银行业务覆盖不足的问题。但是,影子银行在发展过程中本身所存在的问题会影响到银行体系的稳定,加大了系统性风险发生的可能性,同时削弱宏观调控的效果。如何在融合过程中防范风险的发生,二者能够良性互动是亟待解决的问题。     

防微杜渐：供应商企业应对核心客户财务风险传染策略研究

财务风险的集聚和传染是引发系统性金融风险的潜藏路径,如何在供应链条上识别和防控财务风险的传染对防范化解系统性金融危机具有重要意义。基于2010—2020年A股上市公司构建的“客户-供应商-年度”样本,深入考察核心客户财务风险对供应商的传染效应以及供应商采取的应对策略。研究结果表明：(1)核心客户的财务风险会传染到其供应商企业,供应商采取公司治理提升策略和信息披露质量改善策略能有效应对风险传染。(2)财务风险传染机制识别发现,利益联动效应和资源联动效应是核心客户财务风险传染到供应商的可能路径。(3)异质性分析发现,当行业环境动态性越高和供应链经营波动性越强时,核心客户财务风险对供应商企业的传染效应越显著,而供应商通过公司治理提升策略和信息质量改善策略对核心客户财务风险传染的应对效果更为显著。     

中国式影子银行的发展研究

2008年美国爆发次贷危机进而金融风暴席卷全球,影子银行一时之间迅速成为各国监管当局和国际货币基金组织的关注重点,影子银行一词也广为人知。金融理事会(FSB)将影子银行定义为游离于正规银行监管体系之外的信用中介机构。影子银行的发展情况与各国的金融资本体系和政策制度息息相关。我国的影子银行业务相较于发达国家起步较晚,业务多为传统银行的间接融资范畴,涵盖范围较小。但目前来看,随着我国金融市场的不断开放和扩大,影子银行对我国经济发展的影响程度也在不断扩大,影子银行在活跃一国市场经济的同时也会带来相关的系统性风险,但同时我们也要知道影子银行在任何一个国家的发展和存在都是十分有必要的。本文将对现阶段我国影子银行的发展情况做进一步的研究和讨论。     

中国宏观经济面临的风险及其应对策略

"中国宏观经济所面临的风险主要有,欧洲主权债务危机不确定风险,中国实体经济下行的风险,股市、房市等资产泡沫破裂的风险,地方政府债务风险,影子银行引致的金融系统性风险,财政风险与金融风险的相互转移叠加风险等。     

我国影子银行的风险及法律监管

自2008年美国金融危机爆发以来,对影子银行的讨论和研究愈加深入,影子银行实际上是一把双刃剑,蕴藏风险的同时也有益处。我国金融市场仍然处于起步阶段,若对影子银行持一概否定的态度进而取缔以规避风险,会严重阻碍我国金融市场的创新发展。目前,我们需要做的是正确分析影子银行存在的系统性风险、信用风险等,并建立合理的信息披露制度,创新监管机构的监管职能,使影子银行阳光化。     

我国影子银行的系统风险及监管

随着2008年美国次贷危机的到来,影子银行出现在人们面前,由于近些年来影子银行如火如荼的发展,其备受人们的关注。本文通过分析我国影子银行的发展现状,及其所面临风险,得出防范我国影子银行风险的对策。     

Does diversification promote systemic risk?

We measure systemic risk when faced with simulated shocks through the systemic model of banking originated losses. The formation mechanism of systemic risk is explored from the perspective of investment diversification and asset similarity. The results indicate that contagion risks formed by the over similarity of investment assets are the main cause of systemic risk. The similarity generally promotes contagion risks, however, it shows a double-faced effect for state-owned commercial banks that disperse shocks from counterparties through their too-big-to-fail advantages. The similarity is determined by diversification, which initially promotes similarity and disperses it after a threshold. The diversification acts on the contagion process of systemic risk by the mediation of the similarity. Therefore, diversification generally has a nonlinear impact on systemic risk. The results provide regulatory implications for the systemic stability of the banking system.     

Risk contagion in the banking network: New evidence from China

Based on data from 111 Chinese banks over the 2013–2016 period, this paper estimates the interbank bilateral lending matrix using the maximum entropy method. The estimated matrix is used to simulate the effects of credit and liquidity shocks on China’s banking network. Simulation results show that, under the extreme pressure scenario, the contagion arising from a liquidity shock is significantly stronger than the effect of a credit shock, indicating the importance of liquidity in the banking system. The contagion effect arising from a credit shock does not vary much over the sample period. However, the contagion effect arising from a liquidity shock decreases significantly, which could be attributed to contraction in interbank business due to stricter interbank business supervision. The simulation results also identify the most important and most vulnerable nodes of the banking system. An increase in the level of capital level can enhance the ability of banks to withstand credit and liquidity shocks. Our analysis also suggests that risk contagion faced by China’s banks varies across banking network structures.     

Robustness of banking networks to idiosyncratic and systemic shocks: a network-based approach

We propose a network-based structural model of credit risk to demonstrate how idiosyncratic and systemic shocks propagate across the banking system and evaluate the costs. The banking system is built as a network of heterogeneous banks which are connected with one another. In such a system, single credit events propagate through the interbank market from debtors to creditors and across the system. The shock is imposed as an unexpected event. We demonstrate that while idiosyncratic shocks cannot substantially disturb the banking system, a systemic shock of even a moderate magnitude can be highly detrimental. Such shock includes a huge contagious potential. We demonstrate that the costs of the shock are largely determined by the extent of contagion and range from negligible to catastrophic. The results imply that a severe crisis has to be initiated by a systemic shock of at least moderate magnitude. Capital ratio and the bank size are two additional factors of the banking system stability. Finally, credit risk analysis is sensitive to the network topology and exhibits a profound nonlinear characteristic.     

Portfolio diversification and systemic risk in interbank networks

This paper contributes to a growing literature on the ambiguous effects of risk diversification. In our model, banks hold claims on each other’s liabilities that are marked-to-market on the individual financial leverage of the obligor. The probability of systemic default is determined using a passage-problem approach in a network context and banks are able to internalize the network externalities of contagion through their holdings. Banks do not internalize the social costs to the real economy of a systemic default of the banking system. We investigate the optimal diversification strategy of banks in the face of opposite and persistent economic trends that are ex-ante unknown to banks. We find that the optimal level of risk diversification may be interior or extremal depending on banks exposure the external assets and that a tension arises whereby individual incentives favor a banking system that is over-diversified with respect to the level of diversification that is desirable in the social optimum.     

Shadow Banking,Chinese Style

Shadow banks are broadly defined as entities which conduct credit intermediation outside the formal banking system. Poorly regulated, engaging in opaque forms of intermediation, deeply interconnected with the official banking system, and operating with implicit government guarantees, they pose a major source of systemic risk. Yet shadow banks provide an important service by channeling credit to excluded investors, and can complement the formal banking sector. What explains the rapid proliferation of shadow banks in China? How large are they and what forms do they take? What types of risks do they pose to the financial system? And how best can China utilise the services of shadow banks while at the same time ensuring that they do not create systemic risks for the financial system?     

Contagion effect of systemic risk among industry sectors in China’s stock market

This paper constructs a tail event driven network to investigate the interdependence of tail risks among industries in the Chinese stock market from 2014 to 2019, and identifies systemically important industries that have made significant contributions to risk contagion by systemic risk decomposition technique. The empirical results suggest strong linkages among industry sectors. The risk profiles of certain industries under close supply–demand relationships are positively correlated, whereas the financial industry, particularly banking, proves to be the principal risk diversifier in the network, with the household appliance, food and drink industries performing likewise an important role in risk diversification. Based on the TENQR model, further study on additional information provided by the industrial chain structure demonstrates that the upstream industry dominates the spread of risks under extreme market conditions. Our findings are of constructive significance to the anticipative introduction of corresponding policies by regulatory authorities, and are also instructive to the investors’ allocation of assets.     

Topological properties of reconstructed credit networks and banking systemic risk

Financial bipartite networks provide channels for contagion risks and their topological properties determine financial stability. We enrich the bipartite network reconstruction methods proposed by Ramadiah et al. (2020) and extend them to the Chinese banking system. By comparing the reproducibility of the real credit market and the corresponding systemic risk, the impact of topological properties for different reconstructed bipartite networks on financial stability is analyzed. The empirical evidence shows that network reconstruction methods based on maximum entropy ensembles capture more properties in the real credit network. It also highlights that the different systemic risk level is mainly contributed by the topological properties based on common exposures. These analyses for topological properties provide regulatory insights for systemic risk prevention. It shows that reducing credit similarity across banks while increasing credit diversification in different sectors helps to control systemic risk. The results imply the possibility of increasing financial stability through the macro-regulation of the credit market structure.     

金融行业间的资产风险外溢影响

银行业、保险业和证券业因投资业务而构建起联系，并基于金融资产价格而具有了传染渠道。随着投资活动愈发频繁，金融行业中各行业内部的资产风险可能外溢至其他行业。本文首先从理论上分析金融行业资产风险通过投资资产外溢的过程，通过搭建资产抛售模型模拟资产风险的传染机制，从机构层面和行业层面分析资产风险的生成与传递。其次，基于金融机构实际数据的模拟分析结果显示，四大国有商业银行和中国平安具有外溢风险的能力，首先影响银行和保险公司，随后再扩散到整个金融行业，而证券业则相对较为独立。银行业的外溢影响最大，其次是保险业和证券业。但事实上很难发生足以对外部造成显著影响的损失事件。资产、投资比例、杠杆和监管要求水平在资产风险外溢的过程中具有一定的影响。     

Risk spillover analysis of China’s financial sectors based on a new GARCH copula quantile regression model

This study employs a new GARCH copula quantile regression model to estimate the conditional value at risk for systemic risk spillover analysis. To be specific, thirteen copula quantile regression models are derived to capture the asymmetry and nonlinearity of the tail dependence between financial returns. Using Chinese stock market data over the period from January 2007 to October 2020, this paper investigates the risk spillovers from the banking, securities, and insurance sectors to the entire financial system. The empirical results indicate that (i) three financial sectors contribute significantly to the financial system, and the insurance sector displays the largest risk spillover effects on the financial system, followed by the banking sector and subsequently the securities sector; (ii) the time-varying risk spillovers are much larger during the global financial crisis than during the periods of the banking liquidity crisis, the stock market crash and the COVID-19 pandemic. Our results provide important implications for supervisory authorities and portfolio managers who want to maintain the stability of China’s financial system and optimize investment portfolios.     

关于中国银行集中度风险的实证研究

本文采用熵值法分析银行业的集中程度。实证结果表明,熵值与银行业的风险是正相关,而熵值与银行集中度是负相关,也就是说银行的集中度越高,风险就越小,银行系统也就越安全。由此可以得出以下结论:开放经济情况下,银行业集中度的提高可以降低风险,尤其是在外部经济不确定的情况下,更应保持金融力量的集中,以此来对抗危机的冲击。