Low Wage Employment in Transitional Economies of Central and Eastern Europe

MOCT-MOST: Economic Policy in Transitional Economies -     

Spillover across Eurozone credit market sectors and determinants

We examine spillover and its determinants among Eurozone sector level credit markets using time and frequency domain spillover approaches. Based on network theory and connectedness analysis, we identify the sectors that are major transmitters and receivers of spillover during normal and crisis periods. The rolling window analysis shows that short-run spillover among credit market sectors intensifies during global and Eurozone crisis periods. Further, using Bayesian model averaging, we find that overall financial conditions and stock market volatility are the main drivers of total and sector-level spillover. Our findings have important implications for policymakers and investors interested in Euro-area credit risk at the sector level.     

Banking in Central and Eastern Europe

MOCT-MOST: Economic Policy in Transitional Economies -     

The happiness gap in Eastern Europe

Citizens in Eastern Europe are less satisfied with life than their peers in other countries. This happiness gap has persisted over time, despite predictions to the contrary by earlier scholars. It holds after controlling for a variety of covariates, such as the standard of living, life expectancy and Eastern Orthodox religion. Armed with a battery of surveys from the early 1990s to 2014, we argue that the happiness gap is explained by how citizens in post-communist countries perceive their governments. Eastern Europeans link their life satisfaction to higher perceived corruption and weaker government performance. Our results suggest that the transition from central planning is still incomplete, at least in the psychology of people.     

Innovation performance across Europe

The innovation performance of firms is primarily determined by their own innovative activities and the interaction with their innovation-related environment. This environment typically differs among countries. We assess empirically these differences on firms' innovation performance. To that end we first estimate the relationship between an aggregate innovation input measure and an aggregate innovation output measure, thereby explicitly controlling for structural differences between countries. We then consider the extent to which firms located in a particular country perform better or worse than this estimated benchmark performance. The analysis is based on a panel dataset that we have constructed from Eurostat's first and second Community Innovation Survey. In order to control for possible data contamination we employ an outlier-robust estimator. It appears that among the fourteen countries considered Italy, Germany and Ireland offer an environment that facilitates most the transformation of innovation-related inputs into commercial outputs while the environment in Denmark is the least facilitating.     

Wage Rigidity, Monetary Integration and Fiscal Stabilization in Europe

Flexibility in fiscal policy is a necessary ingredient in a policy package for EMU. Even with strong endogenous shock absorbers, such as real wage flexibility, fiscal policy can speed up the stabilization process in response to demand shocks. If real wages are rigid, as they typically are in Europe, fiscal policy cannot remove the adverse effects of asymmetric supply shocks, but it can successfully limit the divergence between member states. Monetary flexibility, a possible option in the run-up to EMU, cannot completely make up for the stabilization function of fiscal policy.     

Factor market distortions across time,space and sectors in China

In this paper, we measure TFP losses in China?s non-agricultural economy associated with labour and capital misallocation across provinces and sectors between 1985 and 2007. We also decompose the overall loss into factor market distortions within provinces (between state and non-state sectors) and distortions between provinces (within sectors). Over the entire period, misallocation lowers aggregate non-agricultural TFP by an average of twenty percent. However, after initially declining, these losses increased appreciably beginning in the mid-1990s. This reversal can be attributed almost exclusively to increasing misallocation of capital between state and non-state sectors within provinces, while losses from between province misallocation remained fairly constant. We argue that the recent increase in capital market distortions is related to government policies that encourage investments in the state sector at the expense of investments in the more productive non-state sector.     

Privatization Effects in Central and Eastern Europe

MOCT-MOST: Economic Policy in Transitional Economies -     

Oil prices and stock returns: nonlinear links across sectors

We present evidence of an asymmetric relationship between oil prices and stock returns. The two regime multivariate Markov switching vector autoregressive (MSVAR) model allow us to capture the state shifts in the relationship between regional stock markets and sectors. Results suggest that oil price risk is significantly priced in the sample used. The impact is asymmetric with respect to market phases, and regimes have been associated with world economic, social and political events. Our study also suggests asymmetric responses of sector stock returns to oil price changes and different transmission impacts depending on the sector analyzed. There is a high causality from oil to sectors like Industrials and Oil & Gas. Companies inside the Utilities sector were more able to hedge against oil price increases between 2007 and 2012. Historical crisis events between 1992–1998 and 2003–2007 do not seem to have affected the relationship between oil and sector stock returns, given the higher probability of remaining smoother. For all sectors there seems to be a turn back to stability from 2012 onwards. Finally, investors gain more through portfolio diversification benefits built across, rather than within sectors.     

Firm heterogeneity and Ricardian comparative advantage within and across sectors

This paper incorporates Melitz’s Econometrica (71:1695–1725, 2003) heterogeneous-firm trade model in the Ricardian model of comparative advantage with a continuum of sectors introduced by Dornbusch et al. (Am Econ Rev 67(5), 823–839, 1977). In particular, we characterise the equilibrium outcomes when neither sectors nor countries are symmetric. We find that trade patterns can follow Ricardian comparative advantage, while wage rates are proportional to market size due to a home market effect. Interestingly, trade liberalisation hurts the large country but benefits the small one by reducing the number of sectors with two-way trade and expanding those with specialised (one-way) trade. I would like to thank Mike Artis, Richard Baldwin, Frederic Robert-Nicoud, Matthias Helble, Giovanni Facchini, Thierry Verdier and a referee for their helpful comments and suggestions. Also I would like to thank Mike Artis for his excellent proof reading.     

Unemployment, Wage Developments and the Economic Policy Mix in Europe

The paper considers the importance of wage formation for the policy mix in Europe. When monetary policy is committed to price stability, unit labour costs are a crucial factor in achieving this objective. Traditional Phillips curve or modern NAIRU models focus on labour market flexibility to achieve coherent wage developments because they take a short run perspective where the capital stock is fixed. However, in a long term perspective, the capital stock adjusts to profit opportunities which depend on the portfolio choices of investors which in turn are influenced by monetary policy. The time path of the price level depends then on a trend that is set by unit labour costs and a mean reverting profit mark-up that is dependent on capital costs. Monetary policy can become growth-supporting, if unit labour costs remain consistent with the central bank's price objective.     

Long-run impacts of inflation across sectors in a small sample of countries

This article investigates the long-run effects of inflation on economic output for 10 sectors of the economy, with a sample of 7 countries. The analysis is done using long-run restrictions in a vector autoregression and reports long-run multipliers with bootstrapped confidence bands. The results suggest that some sectors seem to be affected differently than others, as well as significant heterogeneity across countries. The results suggest the strongest effects in the low inflation countries Germany and Japan as has been found in similar studies. In contrast to research using growth regressions, the evidence suggests a positive long-run effect of inflation on output.