Indonesia – Trade Policy Review 2007

This paper examines the 2007 WTO review of Indonesian trade policy. Indonesia undertook a major policy liberalisation in the late 1960s. Serious protectionist pressures emerged in the 1970s but for most of this period, and especially since the mid‐1980s, the economy has remained broadly open. We summarise the WTO report, update some of its analysis, highlight its key findings, and point to some trade policy issues that in our opinion warranted greater attention. The main theme of the paper is that Indonesia is a largely open economy, but that this openness on occasion remains precarious. There are both political economy, rent‐seeking forces opposed to the current openness and, perhaps more importantly, much of the country's influential public opinion is sceptical of the merits of an open economy and deeper global commercial integration. Nor is there a deeply institutionalised support for openness in the country's bureaucracy and polity. Seen from this perspective, a key question to answer is why the country has remained open, particularly since the deep economic and political crises of 1997–98.     

Malaysia – Trade Policy Review 2006

The Trade Policy Review (TPR) is an important document for small open economies like Malaysia. It provides an outsider perspective of its trade policies and implementation. In this paper we provide an update of the Malaysian economy emphasising the degree of competitiveness vis‐à‐vis other Asian counterparts. We also discuss the issue of regional and bilateral trading agreements involving Malaysia with a focus on the services sector. Finally, we briefly consider the issue of tariff protection – an issue raised by many commentators of the TPR.     

2004 Trade Policy Review – The United States

Many of the findings of the seventh Trade Policy Review of the United States are similar to those reached in earlier reviews: the US is unanimously acknowledged as having an open and transparent system; the US economy has remained amongst the world's most competitive, and has continued to support global growth by keeping its import market largely open. This review finds, however, that the US has developed a disturbing pattern of non‐compliance with WTO rules. During the period of review the United States enacted policies, most notably the infamous Byrd Amendment and the 2001–02 steel safeguard action, that were found to be clear violations of its WTO obligations. Despite these and other such findings, the United States has obstinately refused to bring its domestic statutes in line with WTO rules. In addition, in recent years the United States’ aggressive pursuit of regional and bilateral initiatives has led many Members to question whether the United States is committed to the multilateral approach espoused by the WTO. Overall, despite the US's many virtues, Member countries expressed concern that the US's stated leadership of and commitment to the WTO is not matched by its actions.     

From the Soviet Union to the European Union: Estonian Trade Policy, 1991–2000

This paper examines the political economy of Estonian trade policy in the 1990s. Estonia is a unique case in the world economy, in that the country rapidly implemented unilateral free trade after regaining independence and sustained it right through the 1990s. We analyse the circumstances, interests, ideas and institutions that have shaped Estonian trade policy during the past decade. Our stress is on institutions, particularly the national decision‐making setting for trade policy. Through this prism we try to understand how a free trade regime was implemented and sustained, and what this experience suggests for the feasibility of tree trade elsewhere. We also look at the increasingly ‘multi‐track’ nature of Estonian trade policy through bilateral free trade agreements, WTO accession and, especially, the movement towards EU accession. Although the other trade policy tracks to some extent provide a lockin for unilateral reforms, we argue that EU accession is undermining the simple, classical liberal trade policy regime that existed during the 1990s.     

Migration,Unemployment and Trade

Using an oligopoly model of trade with asymmetric costs, we study the individual and world welfare implications of a hub and spoke trade agreement where the hub country is more efficient than spoke countries. Under a hub and spoke trade regime, the hub country can benefit at the expense of the spokes relative to free trade. Furthermore, if the hub is sufficiently efficient compared to the spokes, such a regime can yield higher global welfare than free trade. Preferential treatment of the efficient hub country in its export markets improves world welfare because it helps allocate a larger share of the world’s output to a low cost location.     

内外贸一体化中的对外贸易政策调整

由美国次级贷款问题引发的愈演愈烈的全球金融危机,将使中国经济发展面临国际市场需求紧缩和国内需求市场疲软的双重压力。从中长期来看,积极推进内外贸一体化发展,是缓解内外压力,保持经济持续较快发展的重要途径之一。为此,必须深入研究内外贸一体化的客观经济机制,促进国内外贸易政策的协调。     

Chile's Trade and Regional Integration Policy: An Assessment

This paper examines the economics, politics and political economy of Chile's trade and regional integration (RI) policies, and reaches the following conclusions. First, Chile is likely to obtain static and dynamic benefits from a free trade agreement (FTA) with the US, though the benefits depend crucially on the extent to which its market access to the US improves and on the costs of implementing the intellectual property rights agreement and of enforcing the rules of origin. Second, potential benefits are more doubtful with respect to FTAs with MERCOSUR and the Andean Pact and Central American countries.Third, Chile should complement its ongoing negotiations with the EU by negotiating FTAs with key Asian countries.Fourth, Chile should bind all its tariffs at the WTO at the applied MFN uniform tariff rate. Fifth, the uniform MFN tariff should be reduced below six percent after 2003.     

Economic integration across Latin America: Evidence from labour markets, 1990–2013

Combining macroeconomic and microeconomic data and three indicators of international market integration, this paper assesses the degree to which Latin American labour markets are integrated. The results suggest that relative to East Asia, Latin American labour markets are somewhat more integrated, but considerable differences across countries persist. In addition, the evidence indicates that the degree of labour market integration across Latin American borders is significantly less than that of labour markets within the United States in two of the three indicators. These differences may suggest opportunities for efficiency gains from further labour market integration.     

One Market,One Money: Evidence from Canada–United States Economic Integration

In this paper, we focus on the evolution of the optimum currency area (OCA) properties between Canada and the United States. To this end, we specifically investigate the relationship between the intra‐industry trade dynamics of Canadian provinces with the United States and the increasing level of integration between the two countries from 1980 to 1998. Our findings lead us to support the view that integration (real and monetary) improves the conditions under which a monetary union can yield net gains in the long run for the integrating countries. We also find that exchange rate developments exert asymmetric effects on the Canadian provinces.     

Compositional Effects of Capital Controls – Theory and Evidence

This paper examines the effects of capital controls on the composition of inter‐national capital flows, paying particular attention to debt inflows versus equity inflows. A two‐period small open economy model with stochastic second‐period output and asymmetric information between domestic agents and international financiers is utilised to generate predictions regarding the effects of capital controls on the relative use of debt versus equity for financing first‐period investment. These capital control implications are then investigated with quarterly frequency panel data for Latin America. Capital controls are found to significantly affect the composition of the capital account.     

Trade Policy and Environmental Regulation in the Asia–Pacific: A Simulation

The Asia–Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) has the potential to become the world's largest free trade area, encompassing both developed and developing countries. At the same time environmental standards vary substantially in the region. A multilateral computable general equilibrium (CGE) model combined with environmental sub–models simulates the environmental effects of trade and environmental policy changes. The simulations show: (i) Even drastic reductions in trade barriers have only a small effect on pollution; (ii) Low environmental standards relative to trade partners do not necessarily result in increased pollution when trade is liberalised; (iii) Unilaterally raising environmental standards does not crowd out pollution to countries with laxer standards.     

The Return of the Reciprocitarians — US Trade Policy Today

‘We are always willing to be trade partners, but never trade patsies’— President Ronald Reagan, State of the Union Message, Washington, 1987     

Assessing the Impacts of US‐Japan Bilateral Trade Agreements, 1980–1995

The paper presents three different viewpoints on the effects of US‐Japan bilateral trade agreements and finds some evidence to support each one using trade data from 1980–1995. For most of the 25 industry‐agreement cases, the data do not support a conclusion of significant positive impacts of the agreements on Japan's imports of targeted manufactured products from either the US or non‐US sources. In at least one high‐profile case involving autos, I find evidence suggesting positive impacts on imports from the US, but in this case the data suggests trade diversion benefiting US0based producers at the expense of European ones. I also find a few cases where the agreements may have produced positive effects on Japan's imports from non‐US sources.