Real exchange rate (RER) as a policy tool for industrial diversification and growth in Africa

Appropriate exchange rate (ER) policies in some Asian and Latin American countries have led to improvement in industrial diversification and growth. The growth ‘miracle’ of the Asian countries centres on the effective use of ER and trade policies, specifically the adoption of depreciation of real exchange rate (RER). However, the case of Africa is different, as the continent is yet to adopt an appropriate ER policy that enhances industrial diversification and growth. Examining the effectiveness of the RER as a policy tool for industrial diversification and growth in 36 African countries, this study applied a dynamic generalised method of moments (GMM) estimation technique to determine how changes in RER affects the growth composition of the three main productive sectors – primary, secondary, and tertiary and their response rates. Our findings suggest that the primary sector leads to appreciation of the RER, while the secondary and tertiary lead to depreciation of the RER. This result has serious policy implication for the Africa continent that has relied so much on the production of primary commodities. Rather than pursue the policy of ER depreciation which affects the primary and secondary sectors, policy shift in favour of the tertiary sector should be highly encouraged.     

Capital Inflows and the Real Exchange Rate: A Comparative Study of Asia and Latin America

The nexus of real exchange rate (RER) and capital inflows is examined through a comparative analysis of the experiences of emerging market economies in Asian and Latin America during the period 1985‐2000. It is found that the degree of appreciation in RER associated with capital inflow is uniformly much higher in Latin American countries compared to their Asian counterparts, despite the fact that the latter experienced far greater foreign capital inflows relative to the size of the economy. The econometric evidence suggests that both the composition of capital flows and differences in the degree of response of RER to capital flows matter in explaining these contrasting experiences. While RER appreciation is a phenomenon predominantly associated with other (non‐FDI) forms of capital inflows (OCFW), a given level of OCFW brings about a far greater degree of appreciation of the real exchange rate in Latin America where the importance of these flows in total capital inflow is also far greater. On the policy front, Asian countries seem to have used fiscal contraction and nominal exchange rate adjustment more effectively to cushion the RER against the appreciation pressure of capital inflows. There is, however, no evidence to suggest that sterilised intervention can generate a lasting impact on the real exchange rate.     

Currency collapses and output dynamics in commodity dependent countries

This paper provides new empirical evidence on the relationship between currency collapses (i.e. large nominal depreciations or devaluations) and real output by paying a specific attention to commodity exporting countries. Using a dataset including 108 emerging and developing economies for the period 1970–2016, we document and estimate what happens to output growth during episodes of currency collapses for commodity-dependent and non commodity-dependent countries. One particular feature of our analysis is to control for war events. We find that currency crises occur more frequently in commodity-dependent countries (one crisis every 17 years versus 30 years for non commodity-dependent countries) and with a larger magnitude (median depreciation about 12% points larger for commodity-dependent countries). In both groups of countries, output growth declines in response to the currency collapse. It appears however that output growth starts to slowdown earlier in commodity-dependent countries while the impact is more persistent in non commodity-dependent countries. The magnitude of the output growth slowdown is very close between the two groups of countries. Finally, we find that the output growth-currency collapse relationship differs among commodity-dependent countries according to the category of their main exported commodity. More precisely, it turns out that currency collapses affect mainly the output growth of agricultural exporters while the impact on the output growth of energy or mineral exporters is not significant.     

Is the US Dollar a Suitable Anchor for the Newly Proposed GCC Currency?

Responses of inflation and non‐oil output growth from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries to monetary policy shocks from the United States (US) were estimated to determine whether there is evidence to support the US dollar as the anchor for the proposed unified currency. A structural vector autoregression identified with short‐run restrictions was employed for each country with Fed funds rate as the US monetary policy instrument, non‐oil output growth and inflation. The main results suggest that for inflation, the GCC countries show synchronised responses to monetary policy shocks from the US which are similar to inflation in the US, and for non‐oil output growth, there is no clear indication that US monetary policy can be as effective for the GCC countries as it is domestically. Consequently, importing US monetary policy via a dollar peg may guarantee only stable inflation for the GCC countries – not necessarily stable non‐oil output growth. If the non‐oil output response is made conscientiously – and there are concerns over the dollar’s ability to perform its role as a store of value – a basket peg with both the US dollar and the euro may be a sound alternative as confirmed by the variance decomposition analysis of our augmented SVAR with a proxy for the European short‐term interest rate.     

Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth in SSA: The Role of Institutions

This article examines the relationship among foreign direct investment (FDI), institutions and economic growth in sub‐Saharan Africa in different country environs. We employ a two‐step generalized methods of moments estimator with Weidmeijer corrected standard errors and orthogonal deviations to examine the empirical relations. In the full sample, we do not find evidence that FDI promotes growth. We also do not find a significant relationship between institutions and economic growth. Finally, we do not find convincing evidence that institutions alter favorably the effect of FDI on economic growth. In the subsample that excludes countries with developed financial markets, again we do not find a significant relation between FDI and economic growth. However, we find evidence suggesting that institutions play a direct role in spurring economic growth. Further, the quality of institutions seems to alter favorably the relationship between FDI and economic growth. Finally, in the sample that excludes countries with abundant natural resources, we find a direct and positive relationship between FDI and economic growth. We also find a direct relationship between institutions and economic growth. The growth‐enhancing effects of FDI, however, seem to reduce as the quality of institutions improves. The major implication from our study is that countries should take into consideration their own realities when they fashion policies to benefit from FDI in terms of achieving better growth outcomes. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

International financial integration and real exchange rate long-run dynamics in emerging countries: Some panel evidence

The aim of this article is to provide new empirical evidence on the impact of international financial integration on the long-run Real Exchange Rate (RER) in 39 developing countries belonging to three different geographical regions (Latin America, Asia and MENA). It covers the period 1979–2004, and carries out ‘second-generation’ tests for non-stationary panels. Several factors, including international financial integration, are shown to drive the long-run RER in emerging countries. It is found that the new financial environment characterised by international financial integration leads to a depreciation of the RER in the long run. Further, RER misalignments take the form of an under-valuation in most MENA countries and an over-valuation in most Latin American and Asian countries.     

Does the world real interest rate affect the real exchange rate? The South East Asian experience

Abstract

We analyze the consequences of US real interest rate rises on the real exchange rate (RER) in a two-good overlapping generations model of a semi-small open economy. The equilibrium RER depreciates (appreciates) when the world interest rate increases in a debtor (creditor) country. We then study empirically the reaction of the RER in a set of South East Asian (SEA) countries to shocks in US real interest rates. The results support the conclusions of the theory model at least for Singapore, Thailand and South Korea during the period 1980 – 2001. This points towards world interest rate shocks as possible trigger factors for exchange rate crises during the adjustment process towards the new equilibrium.     

New-structuralist exchange-rate policy and the pattern of specialization in Latin American countries

The present article critically examines the transmission channels from real exchange rate undervaluation to output growth adduced by New-Structuralism (NS). To this end, we slightly modify new-structuralist canonical model for small open peripheral economies, and make the underlying productive structure depend on income distribution. This allows us both to discuss: (a) the limits of the transmission channels adduced by NS in their own terms, that is, under the assumption that the tradable sector is the modern sector; and (b) the further limitations of these channels when the pattern of trade is more suitable to characterize Latin American countries, whose tradable sector mainly exports primary goods under conditions of differential rent. We conclude that the channels work under highly restrictive assumptions, and therefore the alleged positive relationship between real exchange rate and growth cannot be generally ascertained.     

Does real exchange rate depreciation increase productivity? Analysis using Korean firm‐level data

We examine the effects of real exchange rate (RER ) depreciation shocks on firm productivity. Using the firm‐level data of Korean manufacturing industries for 2006–13, we distinguish between yearly RER movement and persistent RER depreciation during 2007–09 and analyse how each affects productivity. We find the positive effect of RER depreciation on productivity among exporters, and this positive effect increases with higher export exposure. However, the positive productivity gain disappears when the depreciation persists. Our findings suggest that while immediate depreciation leads to productivity upgrade via price competitiveness and scale expansion, persistent depreciation nullifies the productivity gain by slackening the innovation effort.     

Export product range and economic growth in the EU countries

We analyse the number of different HS8 products in the EU countries’ exports in 1995–2015. We review what share, or coverage, of the total possible number of these products the countries have exported each year. The EU15 countries have typically witnessed a slow rise in this coverage rate, that is, a widening of their extensive margins. The exception is Finland where the share has declined considerably. On the other hand, Ireland, Greece, Portugal and the new member countries have seen a dramatic increase in their export product coverage. We analyse how the development in the coverage rate and, as a comparison, the diversification of exports as measured by the Herfindahl–Hirschman index are associated with GDP per capita growth. We find that changes in the former measure are positively associated with economic growth after we have controlled for GDP per capita catching‐up as well as investment and export activity. We also find that smaller EU economies do not specialise more than large ones in their exports as could perhaps be assumed.     

Trade structure and economic growth

Abstract

How do the number of trade partners and the concentration of trade among partners affect the economic growth of a country? We refer to these characteristics as the structure of trade, and explore this question empirically in this study. We find that the structure of trade, independently of the level of trade itself, has an important effect on the rate of economic growth. The results of the study suggest that the number of trading partners is positively correlated with growth across all countries, and this effect is more pronounced for rich countries. Trade concentration is positively correlated with growth for all countries, and the effect is concentrated in poor countries. Previous work has overlooked these characteristics of trade, although we find them to be quite relevant and that they could lead to new ways of understanding the trade – growth relationship.     

How Industry Dynamics Influence the Internationalization–Performance Relationship: Evidence From Technology‐Intensive Firms

The relationship between internationalization and performance has been the topic of a significant number of research studies, which report a mixed pattern of findings. However, the incorporation of global industry characteristics in the testing of this relationship has not been a facet of these studies. This article investigates the impact of intrafirm trade and differential market growth of the industry on the relationship between internationalization and performance. It focuses on technology‐intensive industries using a sample of 795 firms drawn from five countries. Findings indicate that internationalization has a positive relationship (which is quadratic in nature) with performance. Intrafirm trade and differential growth rates were found to interact with the relationship between internationalization and performance, thereby indicating the benefits of internationalization to be contingent on global industry characteristics. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Globalization and Economic Growth in Developing Countries: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa

This article investigates how globalization affects economic growth in developing countries. We use a dynamic growth model with data from 42 Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries, covering the period from 1980 to 2012. The evidence indicates an inverted U curve type response, robust to changes in globalization measures and to alternative model specifications. Our findings are promising and support the view that the relationship between globalization and economic growth is not linear for SSA. Accordingly, SSA countries have control of trade openness, particularly for the import level of consumption goods to boost their economic growth through international trade.     

Mobile Telephony and Economic Growth in Africa

This article analyzes the impact of mobile telephony on economic growth in Africa. It uses panel data on 36 African countries over the period 1995 to 2010, and estimates an econometric model made up of two equations–one expressing output as a function of mobile telephony, and the other, a demand function, reflecting the possibility of a reverse causation from the former to the latter. Given the importance of telecommunication in the development process and the dire state of fixed‐line telephones in Africa, the explosive growth in mobile telephony on the continent could potentially contribute to addressing some of the important challenges it faces today, including the lack of robust economic growth and of poverty alleviation. Employing panel data estimation procedures, this study finds evidence that supports the view that increased mobile penetration contributes to the growth rate of real gross domestic product (GDP). However, the increase in mobile telephone use was not found to have been significantly influenced by GDP growth. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Basic Needs,Government Debt and Economic Growth

This paper investigates the relationships between basic needs and economic growth where the interactions between output, health, nutrition and education are explicitly simultaneous. We find a unidirectional relationship that improving basic welfare contributes strongly to labour productivity change, but a clear reverse causation only from growth to nutrition. There are substantial differences in the patterns of simultaneous interactions at different income and welfare levels. There are strong self‐reinforcing effects of literacy and debt service on poverty, making it difficult for poor countries to rectify their situation. Channelling resources towards improving health, education and nutrition could bring dramatic economic returns.     

Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports: New Empirical Evidence from the Emerging East Asian Economies

This paper examines the impact of bilateral real exchange rate volatility on real exports of five emerging East Asian countries among themselves as well as to 13 industrialised countries. We recognise the specificity of the exports between the emerging East Asian and industrialised countries and employ a generalised gravity model. In the empirical analysis we use a panel comprising 25 years of quarterly data and perform unit‐root and cointegration tests to verify the long‐run relationship among the variables. The results provide strong evidence that exchange rate volatility has a negative impact on the exports of emerging East Asian countries. In addition, the results suggest that the pattern of bilateral exports is influenced by third‐country variables. An increase in the price competitiveness of other emerging East Asian countries has a negative impact on a country’s exports to a destination market, but the magnitude of the impact is relatively small. These results are robust across different estimation techniques and do not depend on the variable chosen to proxy exchange rate uncertainty. The results of the GMM‐IV estimation also confirm the negative impact of exchange rate volatility on exports and suggest that this negative relationship is not driven by simultaneous causality bias.     

Export diversification,composition, and economic growth: Evidence from cross-country analysis

We investigate the export-growth relationship at disaggregate levels – disaggregation both at the country level and at the level of exports – focusing on the diversification and the composition of exports of countries. In a sample of 65 countries for the period 1965–2005 the dynamic panel estimation reveals that both diversification and composition of exports are important determinants of economic growth after controlling for the impacts of other variables like lagged income, investment, and infrastructure. There is a critical level of export concentration beyond which increasing export specialization leads to higher growth. Below this critical level, diversification of exports matters for gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Growth of high technology exports also contributes tothe output growth; the relationship becomes stronger for countries that have share of manufacturing exports in their total exports greater than the world average. These results are robust even when the dataset isclassified in four sub-panels based on the export-economic growth relationship.     

Monetary Dynamics of Inflation in China

This paper investigates both the short‐run and the long‐run relationships between monetary growth and inflation in China between 1980 and 2010. We construct multivariate dynamic models based on Friedman’s quantity theory of money (but permitting money to be endogenous) and Meltzer’s monetarist model. The empirical results provide robust evidence that there is a bilateral causal relationship between monetary growth and inflation as well as between monetary growth and output growth. An indirect and implicit causal relationship between monetary growth and inflation is found through the asset inflation channel. There are also long‐run equilibrium relationships between money stock, price index and other relevant variables. The present paper further provides a historical exploration of the mechanism of the monetary dynamics of inflation in China over the underlying period. We conclude that the monetary growth rule is likely to be the most promising policy orientation for China to manage its inflation.