Small Business Credit Scoring and Credit Availability*

U.S. commercial banks are increasingly using small business credit‐scoring models to underwrite small business credits. The paper discusses this lending technology, evaluates the research findings on the effects of this technology on small business credit availability, and links these findings to a number of research and policy issues.     

基于Credit Metrics模型的CDS定价研究

信用违约互换（Credit Default Swaps,CDS）作为当今国际上最流行的的信用衍生工具,被广泛应用于商业银行的信用风险管理中。Credit Metrics模型被广泛运用于度量信用风险的大小,在应用Credit Metrics模型计算商业银行贷款的VaR基础上探讨CDS的定价问题。以单笔贷款为例来说明该模型探讨CDS定价实际运用过程,对我国商业银行信用风险管理的提高有一定指导作用。     

有违约风险贷款担保价值研究

在发达国家政府是贷款担保的主要担保人,对贷款担保定价研究的重要假设是担保人没有违约风险。在中国,绝大多数的贷款担保人有违约风险。本文研究了担保人有违约风险情况下提供担保和相互担保的财务特征和定价,对比分析了提供担保和相互担保行为对贷款担保人和银行价值的影响。研究表明,有违约风险担保的价值随着担保人公司价值和借款额的增大而增大,随着借款公司价值的增大而减少;银行的损失随着借款额的增大而增大,随着担保人公司价值和借款人公司价值的增大而减少。银行提供贷款时允许企业相互担保等于潜在为相互担保企业提供了免费的部分担保,随着借款人风险的增大,相互担保条件下的银行或有损失急剧增大,相互担保对于银行的价值有显著的负面影响。     

建立信用体系与大力开发消费信贷

我国商业银行向消费者个人推广信贷消费的各项条件是在1999年2月开始逐步形成的,这些条件包括政府的政策支持、消费者个人信用调查服务、信用工具的发展和信用管理技术.我国市场上常见的信用工具包括商业银行提供融资的分期付款方式消费信贷、购房按揭贷款、信用卡支付等.本文主要讨论在开发消费信贷中建立信用体系的问题.     

A Comparison of a Credit Scoring Model with a Credit Performance Model

Credit suppliers are interested in trying to predict which applicants are likely to default on repayments. They are also interested in predicting those who may miss one or two repayments rather than default by missing three. By considering a sample of 1001 bank credit card holders, this article compares those characteristics of borrowers which distinguish between (a) those who (in the sample period) never missed a repayment (‘goods') and those who missed at least one (‘slows'); (b) those who never missed a repayment and those who missed three consecutively (‘defaulters'); and (c) those who missed one or two repayments (‘bads') and those who missed three in succession.     

我国个人信用评分的发展趋势

随着经济的飞速发展和新巴塞尔资本协议在全球迅速推进,我国个人信用评分的重要性日益加强。由于个人信用的动态变化、信用评分目的转变,采用动态信用评分方法势在必行。     

Loan Officer Turnover and Credit Availability for Small Firms

This paper presents empirical evidence on the role loan officers play in facilitating small firm access to commercial bank loans. If loan officers use soft information (for example, assessments of character, information from customers and suppliers) to make lending decisions that would not otherwise be made on the basis of hard information (for example, tax returns or financial statements), then, frequent turnover in loan officers should be associated with an adverse effect on credit availability. This relationship is confirmed empirically using survey data of U.S. small firms in 1995 and 2001, where loan officer turnover is positively related to the turndown rate on the most recent loan application. Although loan officer turnover could be influenced by the turndown rate (for example, an owner changes banks and gets a new loan officer as a result of a recent turndown), its negative effect on credit availability persists under several different tests.     

信贷资产证券化的违约风险分析

识别和控制资产证券化过程中的风险是金融监管的客观需要。以信贷资产支持证券为例探讨资产证券化的特有风险—违约风险,并运用KMV模型测度个案违约风险,在此基础上提出一些控制违约风险的策略。     

A Credit Risk Model for Consumer Loan Portfolios

ABSTRACT

We propose a credit risk model for consumer loan portfolios in Brazil. Consumer profiles and the risk classification of credit operations are used to segment the portfolios. Credit loss distributions for each segment are selected and used in a Monte Carlo simulation process to generate the loss distribution of the portfolios. The dependence among the credit losses in the different segments of the portfolios is modeled through an elliptical copula function. Statistical tests are done and show that the proposed model is adequate to represent credit loss distributions in consumer credit in Brazil.

RESUMEN.Proponemos un modelo para los créditos de riesgo de la cartera de préstamos al consumidor en Brasil. Los perfiles del consumidor y la clasificación del riesgo de las operaciones crediticias se utilizan para segmentar la cartera. La distribución de las pérdidas de los créditos de cada segmento se seleccionan e utilizan en un proceso de simulación Monte Carlo, para generar la distribución de las pérdidas de la cartera. La dependencia entre la pérdida del crédito en los diferentes segmentos de la cartera se modela utilizando una función de cópula elíptica. Las pruebas estadísticas se realizan y muestran que el modelo propuesto es apropiado para representar la distribución de la pérdida de crédito en el ramo de los créditos a los consumidores en Brasil.

RESUMO.Propomos um modelo de crédito de risco para portfólios de empréstimos ao consumidor, no Brasil. O perfil dos comsumidores e a classificação de risco das operações de crédito são usados para segmentar o portfólio. As distribuições de perda de crédito para cada segmento são selecionadas e usadas num processo de simulação Monte Carlo, para gerar a distribuição da perda do portfólio. A dependência entre a perda do crédito nos diferentes segmentos do portfólio é determinada por uma função de cópula elítica. Testes estatísticos foram realizados e demonstram que o modelo proposto é adequado, para representar as distribuições de perda de crédito no crédito ao consumidor, no Brasil.     

基于社交信用的大学生网络信用贷款平台研究

本文基于社交信用对大学生信用贷款的潜在价值,对大学生贷款中P2P网络信贷的发展进行研究并提出解决方案。论文用PEST分析国内大学生网络贷款市场宏观环境,并将国内典型的大学生网络信贷平台进行对比分析。论文基于社交信用的视角,发现目前市场竞争的同质化、风险控制不够完善以及个人网络征信起步困难等问题,最后针对这些问题提出差异化的品牌营销策略、建立完善的风险控制体系和构建网络个人征信体系等对策。     

消费信贷违约影响因素的实证研究

本文探讨了消费信贷违约的影响因素,包括性别、年龄、受教育程度、年收入和职业类型等借贷人的个人特征对违约率的影响,以及贷款期限、执行利率、贷款金额、贷款种类、还款方式和担保方式等对违约可能性的影响。初步研究发现:质量越高的客户,贷款期限越长;受教育程度越高,越容易申请到长期贷款;贷款期限越长,则贷款质量越高;信用贷款的违约率不比保证贷款的违约率高,这和道德风险模型相一致。汽车贷款借贷者主动违约可能性远远大于住房信贷借贷者,这和基于看跌期权的违约模型相一致。选择等本金还款方式的借贷者比选择等额还款方式的借贷者面临更大的还款压力,因而更容易导致违约(逾期)行为的发生。     

Small Business Credit Scoring and Its Pitfalls: Evidence from Japan

This paper studies the Japanese credit scoring market using data on 2,000 small and medium‐sized enterprises and a small business credit scoring (SBCS) model widely used in the market. After constructing a model for determining a bank's profit maximization, some simulation exercises are conducted, and pitfalls of lending based on SBCS are indicated. The simulation results suggest that the reason why SBCS loan losses occur would be the combination of adverse selection and window‐dressing problems. In addition, omitted variable bias and transparency of financial statements are important.     

银行信贷、商业信用与企业出口

本文运用世界银行投资环境调查数据,使用tobit模型考察了融资渠道异质性对企业出口模式的影响。研究结果表明,融资渠道差异会影响企业出口模式的选择,并且商业信用比银行信贷的影响更大。进一步,我们发现融资渠道差异对于企业总出口的影响也有相同的结论。另外,区分企业规模的结果显示,中小企业融资约束对企业间接出口影响显著;而大企业融资约束对企业直接出口影响显著。     

论违约信用债交易市场之构建

限制违约信用债交易,使得投资者缺乏市场化退出手段,且容易积聚市场风险。我国已具备形成违约信用债交易市场的基本条件,比照类似性质的美国高收益债品种"堕落天使"收益曲线,我国违约信用债具有投资价值,违约信用债交易市场对化解债券市场违约风险、建设多层次债券市场以及债市国际化具有重要意义。市场的构建需遵循法制化、市场化、安全与效益平衡理念,应构建跨市场统一的违约信用债交易市场,并基于违约信用债特性制定针对性交易模式,合格投资者准入门槛,信息披露制度以及相应的配套制度。     

个人消费信用评级及贷款决策研究

近几年来,我国为了扩大内需,各级银行相继推出了住房、汽车、教育和旅游等个人消费信用,有效地启动和扩大了内需。仅2000年就有四成的银行新增贷款来自于个人消费信用。然而,由于我国个人信用制度建设的滞后,银行不得不以繁琐的手续和严格的条件抬高个人消费信用门槛。有调查表明,月收入8000元以上的“富人”阶层,其消费信贷需求与收入成反比。多数富人其实无须求助信贷而消费,并不在银行消费信贷对象内,中低收入者才是构成信贷消费的社会基础。如何解决“平民化”与“信用安全的矛盾,是我国个人信用制度建设急需解决的问题。个人信用制度的…     

我国农村小额信用贷款问题和对策

当前,我国现阶段农村小额信用贷款存在的问题,主要体现在农村金融信用环境差,农村小额信用贷款的风险多元化,农民还贷能力低,农村小额信用贷款期限和额度不合理,银行的内控机制不完善等方面。政府应从政策上重视农村小额信用贷款;积极引导农民的贷款投资方向,降低坏账率;制定优惠政策;增加贷款的透明度,从而切实解决农村小额贷款存在的问题。推动农村经济的发展。     

巨额财政刺激计划引发的物价上涨压力与银行信贷违约风险控制

为了应对由美国次贷危机引发的全球金融危机,中国推出了巨额财政刺激计划.在巨额财政刺激计划推出以后,中国银行部门的信贷投放出现了井喷态势.银行信贷的大量集中投放隐含着相当程度的通货膨胀风险和银行信贷违约风险.实施巨额财政刺激计划时,影响物价上涨压力和银行信贷违约风险的因素主要包括中长期银行信贷大量且集中投放和经济复苏时间被推迟等;通过调整法定存款准备金比率和促进经济有效增长,可在一定程度上缓解通货膨胀压力和银行信贷违约风险.     

论抵押贷款证券化在住房消费信用中的运用

八十年代中期,我国住房制度改革伊始,住房消费信用也随之开始发展.十多年后的今天,我国已初步建立起以住房抵押贷款为中心的住房金融体系,住房抵押贷款也因其贷款对象范围广、贷款金额灵活的特性而深受购房者的青睐.然而,深化住房体制改革,推动住宅产业的发展不能仅仅依靠一级市场的大量发放贷款,建立二级市场以保证抵押贷款资金的长期性、稳定性和流动性才是长久之计.由此,将抵押贷款证券化运用于住房消费信用成为大势所趋.