The deceptive allure of a Transatlantic Free Trade Agreement: A US perspective

The idea of a Transatlantic Free Trade Agreement enjoys strong support in both the United States and Europe. Our author takes a critical view of such an agreement in the light both of his overall assessment of the implications of regional trading pacts for the larger multilateral trading system and of issues raised by the particular details of a US-EU agreement. This article is based on a paper presented at the 1998 Congress of Istanbul, The New Atlantic Initiative, May 1–3, 1998.     

特惠贸易协定对出口复杂度的影响:基于中国的反事实分析

本文研究了特惠贸易协定(PTA)对于缔约国出口复杂度的影响。本文首先通过扩展Hausmann等(2007)的成本发现模型,研究特惠贸易协定影响出口复杂度的理论机制,结果表明:特惠贸易协定可以通过降低贸易成本和降低政策不确定性两个渠道提高缔约国的出口复杂度;然后,本文以中国为例,运用倾向评分匹配法(PSM)进行了反事实经验分析,结果显示,特惠贸易协定对于中国向缔约国出口的复杂度具有显著的正向影响,并且PTA的合作程度越深,对出口复杂度的影响就越大;此外,本文还运用广义精确匹配法(CEM)和双重差分法(DID)进行了稳健性检验,进一步证实了PSM模型的估计结果。     

Productivity Versus Employment: Quantifying the Economic Effects of an EU–Japan Free Trade Agreement

The European Union and Japan recently entered into negotiations over a bilateral free trade agreement intended to stimulate growth and create wealth. Since customs duties are already low, the success of the liberalisation process hinges on the elimination of non‐tariff barriers. The purpose of this paper is to shed light on two possible liberalisation scenarios: a less ambitious liberalisation and a comprehensive liberalisation. In contrast to classic studies, our paper builds on the modern trade literature, accounting for the dominance of intra‐industry trade in both economies and the existence of heterogeneous firms. Furthermore, we model a search‐and‐matching labour market, allowing us to quantify employment effects of trade liberalisation. We find that a comprehensive liberalisation increases Japanese GDP by 0.86 per cent, whereas the EU experiences only an additional 0.21 per cent of real GDP growth. Most of the growth in real GDP is due to firms' efficiency gains, whereas unemployment is reduced by only a small amount. Other world regions experience small reductions of GDP due to trade diversion effects.     

Canada-Chile Free Trade Agreement: An Analysis

ABSTRACT

The Canada-Chile Free Trade Agreement (FTA) came into effect in June 1997. This paper examines the rationale for free trade negotiations between Canada and Chile. Key trade and investment issues in the Canada-Chile FTA are also discussed. Although it is only a few years since the Canada-Chile FTA entered into force, the preliminary results indicate impressive growth in trade and investment between the two countries.

RESUMEN. El Acuerdo de Libre Comercio Canadá-Chile (ALC) entró en vigor en junio 1997. Este documento examina el razonamiento que respalda las negociaciones entre Canadá y Chile sobre el Acuerdo de libre comercio. También abraca los temas más importantes sobre el comercio e inversiones entre Canadá-Chile. A pesar del poco tiempo transcurrido desde que se implantó el acuerdo de ALC entre Canadá y Chile, los resultados preliminarios indican una impresionante tasa de crecimiento entre las inversiones realizadas entre ambos países.

RESUMO. O Acordo de Livre Comércio (ALC) Canadá-Chile entrou em vigor em junho de 1997. Este estudo investiga os fundamentos das livres negociaç[otilde]es comerciais entre o Canadá e o Chile. São abordados, também, o comércio principal e os investimentos realizados no ALC Canadá-Chile. Apesar de estar em vigor há poucos anos, os resultados preliminares deste acordo indicam um crescimento impressionante no comércio e nos investimentos entre os dois países.     

APEC实现自由贸易安排的可行性分析

APEC实现自由贸易安排的目的与WTO是一致的。APEC已经形成了实现自由贸易安排的平台;APEC已经具有了实现自由贸易安排的合作基础;APEC发达工业化成员经济体在努力推进自由贸易安排的实现;次区域经济合作的发展将推动APEC走向自由贸易安排。由此得出APEC实现自由贸易安排是可行的。     

美国众议院对自由贸易协议的态度:一个实证研究

运用贸易政策的政治经济学方法实证研究美国众议院对美国区域性自由贸易协议的态度及其决定因素.研究表明,众议员投票时体现的对自由贸易协议的态度与众议员的政党属性、收取的捐款、所在选区的行业分布等因素密切相关,共和党众议员比民主党众议员更支持自由贸易协议,收取工会组织捐款越多的众议员,越倾向于反对自由贸易协议,来自农业州的众议员更有可能支持自由贸易协议.     

ASEAN-India Free Trade Agreement: Evaluating Trade Creation and Trade Diversion Effects

The present study attempts to provide insight into the trade creation and trade diversion effects of ASEAN-India Free Trade Agreement in goods, which came into force in 2010. The paper applies a theoretically consistent gravity model and uses empirically robust procedures such as ordinary least squares and pseudo-Poisson maximum likelihood in order to analyze the ex post effects of the agreement at an aggregate level. The results reveal that standard gravity variables are statistically significant and report expected signs, yet a reduction in export flows has been observed following the implementation of the free trade agreement, giving rise to pure trade diversion effects.     

解析欧盟韩国自由贸易协定

2011年7月1日欧盟韩国自由贸易协定生效实施。该协定成为各自经济体与贸易伙伴签署的最大的自由贸易协定。该协定既是双边密切经济关系的需要,也是各自实施FTA战略的结果。欧盟韩国自由贸易协定是迄今为止在全球范围很全面的贸易自由化协定,开放深度和广度远远超过世界贸易组织。欧盟韩国自由贸易协定的出现推动了区域经济一体化的进程。韩国目前在中日韩三国各自实施FTA战略上占据了有利的地位。     

Putting Canada in the penalty box: Trade and welfare effects of eliminating North American Free Trade Agreement

Three years ago, very few economists would have imagined that one of the newest and fastest growing research areas in international trade is the use of quantitative trade models to estimate the economic welfare losses from dissolutions of major countries' economic integration agreements (EIAs). In 2016, "Brexit" was passed in a UK referendum. Moreover, in 2019, the existence of the entire North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) is at risk if the US withdraws—a threat President Trump has made if the proposed US–Mexico–Canada Agreement is not passed by the US Congress. We use state‐of‐the‐art econometric methodology to estimate the partial (average treatment) effects on international trade flows of the six major types of EIAs. Armed with precise estimates of the average treatment effect for a free trade agreement, we examine the general equilibrium trade and welfare effects of the elimination of NAFTA (and for robustness US withdrawal only). Although all the member countries' standards of living fall, surprisingly the smallest economy, Mexico, is not the biggest loser; Canada is the biggest loser. Canada's welfare (per capita income) loss of 2.11% is nearly two times that of Mexico's loss of 1.15% and is nearly eight times the US' loss of 0.27%. The simulations will illustrate the important influence of trade costs—international and intranational—in contributing to the gains (or losses) from an EIA's formation (or elimination).     

国外自由贸易协定研究新进展

在国际经济学的传统视野中,自由贸易协定曾经一度占据贸易自由化研究领域的核心地位。但当第二波区域主义抬头之时,传统的理论范式和方法论面对区域贸易模式变化、双边贸易协定增加、非成员国福利损益、国内政治因素制约以及多形式一体化共存等新现象的解释,显得无能为力。文章就自由贸易协定研究方面的新问题,对当前学界的主要观点与研究思路进行梳理,并从理论研究与经验实证两个方面对国外主要研究成果加以整理,以期对该领域的进一步研究有所裨益。     

Bilateral Free Trade Agreements and Customs Unions: The Impact of the EU Republic of South Africa Free Trade Agreement on Botswana

The EU has indicated that after 2008 its trade relationships with developing countries will be dominated by the development of preferential trade agreements. Although not a consequence of the Cotonou Agreement, the free trade agreement between the EU and the Republic of South Africa (EU RSA FTA) was clearly one of the first fruits of this approach to trade relationships. However, there is no evidence that the design of the EU RSA FTA incorporated a comprehensive general equilibrium evaluation of the agreement for either the signatories or the other southern African nations. The analyses reported here indicate that while the EU RSA FTA may substantially benefit the signatories, there are appreciable negative impacts for other states, especially the Republic of South Africa's immediate neighbours. Moreover, the analyses indicate that the structural adjustments for African economies signalled by the FTA are substantial, which implies that there will be substantial economic costs associated with the FTA.     

浅析《中国-巴基斯坦自由贸易区服务贸易协定》

2009年2月21日,中巴两国在武汉签署了《中国-巴基斯坦自由贸易区服务贸易协定》,该协定是迄今两国各自对外国开放程度最高、内容最为全面的自由贸易区服务贸易协定。本文从以下几个方面分析该协定:第一部分对协定内容进行简单的总结归纳;第二部分对协定的开放水平进行评析;第三部分对协定高水平开放服务贸易的背景进行评析。     

The Positive Effects of the Schengen Agreement on European Trade

Enacted in 1985, the Schengen Agreement is widely heralded as both a symbol and major institutional advancement of the European project. By eliminating passport requirements for workers, the compact ostensibly produces gains from travel, ease of market access and economies of scale. Yet despite these optimistic predictions, scholars know little about the actual effects of Schengen on trade. We fill this void by identifying why labour mobility should expand the cross‐country exchange of goods and services and then test our theory with data from Europe spanning the period 1980 to 2011. We argue that labour mobility resulting from Schengen yields positive effects on trade by increasing demand for foreign goods, improving awareness of low‐cost producers abroad and lowering the risks associated with buying and selling outside the country. Using the gravity model of trade, we show empirically that Schengen membership makes European states more robust trading partners.     

《美韩自由贸易协定》投资章刍议

《美韩自由贸易协定》投资章内容包括实体性规定和程序性规定,实体性规定主要体现在有关投资定义、待遇、征收补偿、转移、业绩要求和不符措施等条款上,这些规定体现了高水平的投资保护和投资自由化,对中国参与国际投资规则谈判乃至中国(上海)自由贸易试验区投资管理体制的改革提供有益的借鉴与启示。     

A Simple and Flexible Dynamic Approach to Foreign Direct Investment Growth: The Canada‐United States Relationship in the Context of Free Trade

This paper asks a simple question: Did Wilfred Laurier's dream of free trade with the United States, when it came to fruition in 1989, also impact on foreign direct investment (FDI) into Canada by US multinationals? This paper argues that the customary static econometric approach found in the FDI literature, along with the assumption that policy changes influence only the intercept term, are inadequate to address the question. Instead we introduce an innovative dynamic framework to support the testing of hypotheses on behavioural changes in the variables using a structural break framework. A key conclusion is that prior to signing the free trade agreement US FDI responded only to current growth in the Canadian economy, in a unitary fashion, and current exchange rate shifts. This can be described as a static relationship. The implementation of the free trade agreements between Canada and the USA increased the responsiveness of US FDI to growth in the Canadian economy by a factor greater than two. Furthermore, dynamics are found in the form of a lagged effect for changes in the growth in the Canadian economy and interest rate differentials. These conclusions challenge the dominant view, including that in official policy circles, that the free trade agreement had no impact on US firms’ FDI decisions in Canada.     

Welfare Analysis of the Dominican Republic-Central America-United States Free Trade Agreement: The Cotton Textile and Apparel Industries

This article studies the effects of the Dominican Republic-Central America-United States Free Trade Agreement (US-CAFTA-DR) on the world fiber market using a partial equilibrium modeling approach. We find the effect of the agreement on the U.S. cotton yarn and Caribbean cotton apparel industries to be positive while the U.S. cotton apparel industry suffers significant losses. Cotton apparel producers in the Caribbean region gain approximately $80 million under US-CAFTA-DR while gains by the U.S. yarn industry average about $120 million over current trade arrangements. The U.S. cotton apparel industry loses about $40 million per year under US-CAFTA-DR.