Short‐term Consequences of Trade Reform for Industry Employment and Wages: Survey of Evidence from Colombia

Recent research has focused on the short‐ to medium‐term implications of trade reforms for the labour market outcomes and poverty in poor economies. This article summarises the evidence on the short‐term consequences of the Colombian trade reform initiated in 1985 for industry employment and industry wages. Although the reform reduced manufacturing tariffs on average by 40 percentage points from 1984 to 1994, tariff declines were not significantly associated with labour reallocation across sectors. The reform, however, was associated with bigger declines in relative industry wages in sectors that experienced bigger tariff cuts. This evidence is in line with the predictions of short‐ to medium‐run models of trade in which labour is not mobile across sectors. It is also consistent with the predictions of models where imperfectly competitive industries share rents with workers and trade reduces the firms’ profit margins and thus workers’ rents.     

Sustainable Public Debt and Economic Growth under Wage Rigidity

We analyse the effects of public debt on economic growth in a basic endogenous growth model with persistent unemployment due to wages rigidities. We show that there exists either a unique balanced growth path or there are two balanced growth paths depending on structural parameters and on the flexibility of the labour market. Further, public debt does not affect long‐run growth and employment but only stability of the economy. Stability is more likely when governments put a high weight on stabilizing the debt to GDP ratio.     

Long‐term Effects of the Efficiency Wage Hypothesis in Goodwin‐type Economies

The existence of an efficiency wage mechanism in Goodwin‐type models may lead to the unexpected appearance of an economically meaningful equilibrium with zero labour share, which is globally stable for some parameter constellation and allows the system to attain its ‘maximal growth'. A subsequent ‘normative’ comparison between the possible long‐term regimes of the economy shows that (1) the zero labour share equilibrium can be the ‘preferred’ equilibrium in terms of welfare; (2) in all the long‐term regimes the welfare is higher than in the original Goodwin model; (3) a point of maximal welfare exists. Moreover, the effects of rational behaviour of firms are compared with the ‘traditional’ situation in which rationality is not explicitly assumed. A striking result appears: myopic rationality can have deleterious effects on the profit of firms and on the overall welfare of the economy.     

Trade,Technical Change,and Labour Market Adjustment

This paper empirically examines three possible reasons for the high and rising unemployment of low‐skilled employees in Germany: (i) an upsurge in inter‐industry trade, (ii) a skill‐biased technical change, and (iii) a failure of labour market adjustment. The empirical analyses indicate that an exogenous wage‐setting process as well as a bundle of factors, including a skill‐biased technical and structural change, have contributed to the decline in relative demand for low‐skilled employees in Germany. Thus, economic policy in Germany should focus on improving the employability of workers in the lower segment of the labour market and on raising the adjustment flexibility, above all the flexibility of the wage structure, of the German labour market.     

POST‐KEYNESIAN EFFECTIVE DEMAND AND CAPITAL–LABOUR SUBSTITUTION

This paper analyses the relationship between the real wage rate and employment when we induce capital–labour substitution within a Post‐Keynesian Kaleckian model. To avoid the over‐determinacy problem, we consider a non‐homogeneous production function and cost minimization, in contrast to recent work that assumed a homogeneous production function and profit maximization. As a result, we find not only that increasing returns to scale are important in sustaining the long‐run stability condition, but also that if the increasing returns to scale are small, then it is more likely that employment will increase.     

THE EFFECTS OF LABOUR MARKET FLEXIBILITY IN THE MONETARY THEORY OF PRODUCTION

The aim of the present work is to study the effects of labour market flexibility on aggregate demand, productivity and employment within the theoretical framework of the Monetary Theory of Production. It is shown that labour market flexibility may not produce unidirectional effects on aggregate demand, productivity and employment, the working of the monetary market being decisive in establishing their levels.     

A GOODWINIAN MODEL WITH DIRECT AND ROUNDABOUT RETURNS TO SCALE (AN APPLICATION TO ITALY)

This paper re‐formulates and tests statistically a hypothetical law (HL) of capital accumulation that manifests itself in three scenarios for Italian economy. HL refines Verdoorn law and ‘Ricardian’ relationship between employment and returns; it generalizes neoclassical and Goodwinian models. Big cycles are not sustainable in inertia Scenario I. Lowering direct diseconomy of scale does not alter a non‐trivial stationary state in stabilization Scenario II. Weakening an inverse relation between employment ratio and growth rate of capital intensity raises stationary relative labour compensation without deteriorating profitability in stabilization Scenario III. Stationary states with zero relative labour compensation are not economically relevant.     

Lessons Learnt from the Nordics: How to Fight Long-term Unemployment

This study examines policies that can successfully address long-term unemployment. It focuses on Denmark and Sweden, where, despite sizeable job losses during the crisis, labour market indicators are at present better than in any other EU country. By looking at the interaction between labour market flexibility (especially in hiring and firing regulations) and passive and active policies, we argue that well-designed active policies matter more than labour market flexibility for employment.     

Long‐term information,short‐lived securities

The authors explore strategic trade in short‐lived securities by agents who have private information that is potentially long‐term, but do not know how long their information will remain private. Trading short‐lived securities is profitable only if enough of the private information becomes public prior to contract expiration; otherwise the security will worthlessly expire. How this results in trading behavior fundamentally different from that observed in standard models of informed trading in equity is highlighted. Specifically, it is shown that informed speculators are more reluctant to trade shorter‐term securities too far in advance of when their information will necessarily be made public, and that existing positions in a shorter‐term security make future purchases more attractive. Because informed speculators prefer longer‐term securities, this can make trading shorter‐term contracts more attractive for liquidity traders. The conditions are characterized under which liquidity traders choose to incur extra costs to roll over short‐term positions rather than trade in distant contracts, providing an explanation for why most longer‐term derivative security markets have little liquidity and large bid‐ask spreads. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 26:465–502, 2006     

Effects of Relational Capabilities and Power Asymmetry on Innovativeness and Flexibility of Sub‐Sahara Africa Small Exporting Firms

The objective of this study is to examine the effects of relational capabilities and exercise of power on innovativeness, flexibility, and performance of Sub‐Sahara Africa small exporters. Data from a sample of 206 small fresh produce suppliers in Zimbabwe that had long‐term relationships with retail buyers in export markets were analyzed using structural equation modeling. Findings suggest that long‐term cooperation between small suppliers and buyers negatively influenced innovativeness and flexibility. However, trust and commitment, as well as dependence, positively impacted innovativeness of small suppliers but had negative effects on flexibility. Further, innovativeness negatively influenced firm performance, whereas a positive link emerged between flexibility and performance.     

Services Offshoring and its Impact on Productivity and Employment: Evidence from Germany, 1995–2006

Economists have recently recognised services offshoring as an important influence on domestic labour market outcomes. Services are of particular interest since their significance has grown in terms of both quantity and quality. Only one and a half decades ago, most services were considered non‐tradable, but the emergence and development of new information and communication technologies has made many services internationally tradable. The liberalisation of international trade in services trade has further accelerated the volume of services trade. Our econometric estimations focus on services offshoring by German manufacturing sectors. We use revised input–output data from 1995 to 2006. We first estimate the impact of services offshoring on labour productivity. We then measure the effects of services offshoring on labour demand. The results show that services offshoring increased sectoral labour productivity, but reduced German manufacturing employment. The overall results suggest that labour demand decreased over 1995–2006, because labour‐reducing productivity and substitution effects dominated labour‐augmenting scale effects from services offshoring.     

Exchange Rates,Employment and Labour Market Rigidity

In this paper, we study the effect of labour market rigidity on the impact of exchange rate shocks on employment. We use a panel dataset comprising 22 manufacturing sectors across 23 OECD countries. In our econometric model, the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on sectoral employment is mediated by the degree of openness and by a measure of labour market rigidity: the OECD's employment protection legislation (EPL) index. Our results suggest that greater labour market rigidity reduces the impact of exchange rate shocks on employment. This effect is statistically significant for low‐technology sectors.     

Employment relationships within European airport retailing

Despite undergoing major strategic change, airport retailing has remained a neglected area of academic study. As a consequence, the structure and operation of labour market operations within airport retailing remains largely undocumented. This article attempts to redress this issue by providing an examination of the factors that influence the employment relationship within an airport environment. Using a qualitative research methodology, it details the means by which airport authorities and retailers have attempted to restructure their employment relations in response to changing market conditions. The article takes the concepts of labour market segmentation and flexibility and examines the applicability of ‘dualist’ theory to airport retailing.     

Trade Liberalisation and Poverty: What are the Links?

This paper asks whether a developing country's own trade liberalisation could translate into increased poverty, and what information would be required to identify whether it will do so. It plots the channels through which such effects might operate, identifying the static effects via four broad groups of institutions – households, distribution channels, factor markets and government – and the dynamic issues of volatility, long–term economic growth, and short–term adjustment stresses. An increase in the price of something a household sells (labour, good, service) increases its welfare. Thus, the paper first explores the likely effects of trade liberalisation on the prices of goods and services, taking into account the distribution sector. Also critical is whether trade reform creates or destroys markets. Trade reform is also likely to affects factor prices – of which the wages of the unskilled is the most important for poverty purposes. If reform boosts the demand for labour–intensive products, it boosts the demand for labour and wages and/or employment will increase. However, not all developing countries are relatively abundant in unskilled labour and trade can boost demand for semi–skilled rather than unskilled, labour. Hence poverty alleviation is not guaranteed. Trade reform can affect tariff revenue, but much less frequently and adversely than is popularly imagined. Even if it does, it is a political decision, not a law of nature, that the poor should suffer the resulting new taxes or cuts in government expenditure. Opening up the economy can reduce risk and variability because world markets are usually more stable than domestic ones. But sometimes it will increase them because stabilisation schemes are undermined or because residents switch to riskier activities. The non–poor can generally tide themselves over adjustment shocks from a liberalisation, so public policy should focus on whether the initially poor and near temporary, setbacks. The key to sustained poverty alleviation is economic growth. There is little reason to fear that growth will not boost the incomes of the poor. Similarly, while the argument that openness stimulates long–run growth has still not been completely proven, there is every presumption that it will.     

Heterogeneous effects of competitiveness shocks on macroeconomic performance across euro area countries

This paper considers how competitiveness impacts macroeconomic performance in 11 euro area countries. VAR models are estimated for the individual countries using quarterly data from 1995Q4 to 2013Q4. Besides unit labour costs as a competitiveness measure, the models include GDP, the current account balance and domestic credit. The empirical analyses show that changes in unit labour costs help explain GDP dynamics in the short and medium term in most countries, whereas they have little explanatory power for the current account balance or domestic credit for most countries. Overall, the effects of the unit labour costs vary substantially across the countries in the euro area. The heterogeneity suggests that policy measures aiming to improve economic growth, correct current account imbalances and ensure financial stability need to take country‐specific features into account.     

Equity volatility,bond yields,and yield spreads

This study examines the impact of implied and contemporaneous equity market volatility on Treasury yields, corporate bond yields, and yield spreads over Treasuries. The CBOE VIX is the measure of implied volatility, and the measure of contemporaneous volatility is constructed using intraday squared S&P 500 returns. We find that bond yields and spreads respond to changes in equity market volatility in a manner consistent with a flight‐to‐quality effect. Both short‐ and long‐term Treasury yields fall in response to increases in implied volatility, and the yield curve flattens modestly. Yields on short‐term investment grade bonds fall in response to contemporaneous volatility shocks, while long‐term spreads on low‐quality issues widen. This indicates that investors “look ahead” in anticipation of changes in equity market volatility but respond more strongly to changes in contemporaneous market activity. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark     

The Effects of Globalisation on the US Labour Mark'et: Service Sectors Considered

How has globalisation affected employment and wages in the United States? Existing studies largely ignore the intersector labour movement between the manufacturing and service sectors by focusing only on the intrasector movement within the manufacturing sector. However, by decomposing the aggregate labour demand in the United States, we find that the intersector movement is more substantial than intrasector movement. Motivated by the decomposition results, this study presents a three‐sector model that includes a manufacturing sector and two service sectors at varying skill intensities. The model shows that offshoring might translate into smaller‐than‐expected wage changes because of the intersector labour movement. In line with the theoretical predictions, two notable empirical results are presented. First, an occupation's exposure to offshoring has non‐significant, albeit negative, effects on wages. Second, the more an occupation is exposed to offshoring, the lower its employment in the manufacturing sector as a share of its total employment. Furthermore, these effects are larger for more routine occupations or those requiring less education.     

Labour market characteristics and surviving import shocks

This paper investigates whether different labour market characteristics amplify or dampen the local labour market impacts from Chinese import competition exposure. I exploit state‐level variation in initial, pre‐shock labour market characteristics and regional variation across local labour markets in exposure to Chinese imports for identification. I find that local labour markets in states with higher union density experience more severe adverse consequences as a result of increased import exposure. Conversely, higher initial minimum wages help mute the negative impacts of the China shock. I also provide some evidence that exceptions to employment‐at‐will legislation can affect employment responses to increased Chinese imports. Finally, examining all policies together in an index, I show that higher levels of policies intended to benefit and protect workers can actually magnify the extent of the damage inflicted by import competition. My results suggest that initial labour market characteristics and policies can play an important role in understanding why local labour markets react differently to trade shocks.     

ASSET PRICES,OUTPUT AND MONETARY POLICY IN A SMALL OPEN ECONOMY

We formulate a macro‐model of a small open economy in order to investigate the relative performance of rules that respond to asset prices and those that do not. Our model consists of three asset prices: the stock price, the long‐term interest rate and the exchange rate. These asset prices interact with nominal wage and price Phillips curves, a law of motion for the labour share, a dynamic IS curve that describes output adjustment and a Taylor‐type interest rate policy rule. Estimations of the model show that policy rules that respond to asset price movements dominate rules that do not.     

Flexibility,Skill and Technical Change in UK Retailing

This article examines employment patterns in British retailing during the 1980s. It focuses on two debates central to contemporary economic sociology: the flexibility thesis and theories of skill and technical change. The data derive fiom the ESRC's Social Change and Economic Life Initiative and represent a sample of 72 retailing establishments fiom six localities in Britain. The article reveals that technological change had not produced much in the way of deskilling: rather, it had enskilled the work of already qualified and trained employees. Whilst part-time employment had increased in many stores, there was little evidence of any significant growth of other kinds of peripheral labour.