The impact of fiscal positions on government bond yields in CEE countries

This paper investigates the influence of government debt and primary balance on long-term government bond yields in 10 Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries in the period 2000–2013. The results indicate that a one percentage point increase in the stock of government debt is associated with an increase in government bond yields of 2.7–4 basis points, while a one percentage point increase in the primary deficit to GDP ratio is associated with an increase in government bond yields of 12.9–24.3 basis points. We also find evidence of non-linearities in the debt-interest rate relationship, whereby the threshold after which the impact of debt turns from negative to positive is significantly lower than in advanced economies.     

Democratic transition and fiscal policy in the Arab world

This paper investigates the relationship between democracy and public debt in the Arab world over the period 2002–2013. The results show strong evidence of an inverted U-shaped relationship between democracy and public debt. This means that democratization is associated with lower debt only when a certain level of democracy is reached. In an attempt to explain these findings, we assume that the effect of democracy on public debt operates mainly through its impact on government spending and government revenue. Our results show that the inverted U-shaped relationship between democracy and public debt stems from the inverted U-shaped democracy-government spending path and the U-shaped democracy-government revenue pattern. This implies that, at the earlier stages of democratization, democracy is associated with an increase in government spending and a decrease in government revenue, which stimulates public debt. However, beyond a certain level of democracy, further democratization reduces government spending and enhances government revenue, leading to lower levels of public debt. Hence, achieving some level of democracy is a key prerequisite to improve the effectiveness of public spending, enhance tax compliance, and thereby control public debt.     

Persistent deficits and the market value of government debt

This paper investigates whether postwar Canadian public financial policy satisfies a borrowing constraint. Direct tests of the present-value relation suggested by this constraint shed light on the sustainability of current policy. We examine monthly data on Canadian federal government finances using tests for cointegration. The finding is that the joint behaviour of real debt and real surpluses is inconsistent with intertemporal budget balance for the government. One interpretation of this finding is that the government is systematically paying real returns to bondholders by issuing further debt. Alternatively, bondholders may expect the government to finance future interest payments from a source other than primary surpluses, e.g. the sale of physical assets.     

Interim audit scope,client size and client familiarity: An empirical analysis

This study investigates the scope of an audit conducted during the first part of the annual auditing cycle. It measures empirically the probability of auditing various balance sheet and income statement accounts. The results indicate that current assets and liabilities have a higher probability for an interim audit than fixed assets, long-term debt and equity accounts. Furthermore, the likelihood of including each account in an interim audit increases with client size, so the larger an auditee, the wider the audit scope during the beginning of the audit cycle. Also, the empirical results indicate that the lower the familiarity of the auditor with the auditee, the wider the scope of an interim audit. These results seem to be consistent with auditing theory and intuition.     

Book Review

Following review of definitions of New Public Management (NPM), the paper assesses whether Canada has adopted the NPM, organized by Kernaghan and Charih's (1997) categories and using Loeffler's (1997) definition. Canada has reorganized the machinery of government, changed management methods and reduced the federal public sector substantially. Despite high debt, Canada's federal government reduced its expenditures and/or public service as much or more than the UK and New Zealand. Its expenditures as a proportion of GDP are now similar to those of the UK and New Zealand, the major proponents of NPM.     

Assessing Ricardian equivalence for the New Member States: Does debt-neutrality matter?

Using a structural model based on dynamic optimizing agents, we empirically test the Ricardian equivalence proposition (REP) for 11 New EU-Member States (NMS). We extend the basic model by including the government budget constraint, thus being able to evaluate whether individuals take the evolution of public debt into account. In the basic setting we cannot reject the validity of the REP for four NMS, in the extended model the relevance of the REP changes for six countries, implying that the development of government debt and long-term sustainability of public finances matters with regard to the validity of the REP.     

ON THE INEFFECTIVENESS OF FISCAL POLICY AS AN INSTRUMENT OF MACROECONOMIC POLICY

Spending depends on the quantity of money. If an increase in the budget deficit is financed by sales of government debt to non-banks, the quantity of money is unchanged and public borrowing 'crowds out' private spending. But – if the government finances its deficit (or buybacks of existing debt) from the banks – the quantity of money, and hence spending and national income increase.     

政府财务信息披露理论框架构筑

在透明性、服务型和绩效型政府建设的新时期,社会公众对政府信息公开的诉求日益强烈,作为反映政府资产负债状况及运营绩效的政府财务信息,其公开披露将有助于提升政府公信力、解除公共受托责任并帮助利益相关者进行决策。文章通过对政府财务信息披露的文献回顾与理论分析,构筑了包含目标、主体、载体和行为的政府财务信息披露理论框架,探讨了政府财务信息披露的实施机制与保障体系,为政府会计改革的顺利推进以及政府信息公开制度建设的不断深化奠定理论基础。     

所得税会计准则解析——资产负债观在新会计准则中的体现

2006年发布的所得税会计准则,要求采用资产负债表债务法,引入计税基础计量暂时性差异,重在规范递延所得税资产或负债的确认及计量,在资产及负债存量可靠、完整的基础上,从资产及负债的增减变动导出对所得税费用的影响金额,体现了资产负债观在我国会计规范中的运用。     

Public versus private provision of liquidity: Is there a trade-off?

To what extent is public debt private liquidity? Much policy advice given in the aftermath of the financial crisis rests on the assumption that increasing public debt relaxes borrowing constraints of private households. This is the case for ad-hoc debt limits, which are exogenous to public policy. Instead, if debt limits are fully endogenous, as e.g. in the case of the natural borrowing limit, public debt has no impact. We assume that borrowing limits arise because of limited contract enforceability and are therefore determined as equilibrium outcomes. Using an incomplete markets economy in which households are subject to uninsurable earnings shocks, we show that public debt provides some liquidity, but less so than it would if constraints were imposed ad-hoc. We show that generating borrowing constraints as an equilibrium outcome substantially alters the answers to other important questions, such as for the welfare effects of government debt or its impact on real economic activity.     

巧算所得税中的递延所得税资产(负债)

文章介绍一种计算递延所得税资产的简便算法,从演变所得税的计算公式入手,通过分析递延所得税资产(负债)对本期和未来所得税影响的关系,推算所得税中递延所得税资产和递延所得税负债。     

Optimal public debt redux

We examine the role played by government investment in infrastructure in determining the optimal quantity of public debt in a heterogeneous agent economy with incomplete insurance markets. Calibrating our model to the key aggregate and distributional moments of the U.S. economy for the period 1990–2015, we show that (i) the inclusion of infrastructure, and (ii) transitional dynamics between stationary states critically affect the characterization of the optimal level of public debt. Our results indicate that the inclusion of public infrastructure in the model specification implies a lower optimal debt level relative to the specification without infrastructure, both when comparing stationary equilibria and when accounting for transitional dynamics. When welfare comparisons are made by comparing stationary equilibria, we find that it is optimal for the government to accumulate assets (public surplus). However, once transitional dynamics are accounted for, accumulating debt becomes optimal, with the optimal share implied by our model being significantly higher than the average public debt-GDP ratio for the U.S. observed during our sample period.     

政府债务对经济增长的影响及作用渠道

基于1960～2010年113个国家的面板数据集,运用系统广义矩动态面板方法和稳健性分析,比较发达国家和发展中国家政府债务经济增长效应的差异,并尝试分析政府债务影响经济增长的渠道。研究结果显示,政府债务对经济增长有非线性影响;发达国家政府债务对经济增长、投资以及全要素生产率均无显著影响;发展中国家对政府债务的直接承受力更弱,但在一个宽松的临界点内,政府债务的增加可以提高投资率。     

债务率、偿债压力与地方债务的经济增长效应

研究目标：中国地方政府债务对于经济增长的门限效应。研究方法：基于债务率,即债务存量与地方政府综合财力的比值的视角,利用中国30个省份2010~2014年年底的地方债务余额数据,对地方债务的经济增长效应进行了实证研究。研究发现：中国地方债务存在明显的经济增长门限效应：当债务率高于112%左右之后,原本正向显著的经济增长促进作用基本趋近于无,而其作用渠道可以明确为如下传导机制,债务率高企带来地方政府偿债压力从而影响经济发展导向的财政支出。研究创新：引入债务率指标并基于偿债压力视角分析了地方债务对于经济增长的作用机制。研究价值：对于我国地方政府债务的管控治理和风险防范,具有重要的参考价值。     

Risk‐weighting debt implies more fiscal space

• ? Markets are more tolerant of fiscal expansion than governments typically fear. The composition of major economies' government debt has become safer and this is reflected in our estimates of a new indicator – risk‐weighted debt (RWD). Using RWD to measure debt provides a relatively benign indication of risks to sustainability in the major economies since 2004.
• ? Our RWD measures consist of six categories of debt holders, with weights allocated to their risk‐to‐flight potential. Debt holders range from riskier foreign banks and non‐banks (highly weighted), which would be most inclined to sell when times get tough, to safer entities such as central banks (zero weight).
• ? RWD looks less alarming than unweighted measures. Major economies' total public debt rose by 10% of GDP on average since 2011; RWD was up by just 1% of GDP.
• ? Japan and Italy show the biggest relative improvements when the focus shifts to RWD from debt‐to‐GDP. The two countries' RWD has fallen significantly since 2011.
• ? RWD improvements limit the extent to which indebtedness threatens sustainability.

     

Determinants of government underfunded public pension liabilities in the OECD

Underfunded government liabilities for public pensions constitutes a major expenditure in the management of social programmes in many countries, but to date has not attracted much attention from accountants as it does not easily fit within an accrual-based accounting system. This paper discusses major measurement problems associated with this liability and then examines determinants of variations in projected flow-based funding patterns among OECD governments. Alternative ‘behavioural persistence’ and ‘regression to the mean’ hypotheses about the determinants of underfunding practices are formulated and tested using an OECD data set describing the financial and socio-economic characteristics of government-sponsored public pension systems in these countries. Consistent with the behavioural persistence hypothesis, cross-sectional variations are found to be associated with the funding ratio and the rate of taxation required to keep government debt constant. Variations in underfunding practices across the sample are also sensitive to cultural differences in attitude towards public pension accountability between continental European and Anglo-American countries.     

负债风险控制视角下政府会计存在的问题及对策

鉴于负债风险控制视角下政府会计存在的制度规范不能满足政府对负债确认和报告的统一规定、收付实现制不能满足政府负债信息质量要求及财务报告不符合政府负债风险控制的要求等三方面的问题,在充分借鉴西方发达国家政府会计改革的成功经验的基础上,结合我国国情,提出了解决上述问题的政府会计改革的建议,即完善制度规范体系、引入权责发生制的会计确认基础和改革政府负债报告制度。     

What did Frederick the great know about financial engineering? A survey of recent covered bond market developments and research

This article is a survey of the covered bond market with a focus on recent developments in the U.S. Covered bonds are debt obligations secured by a pool of assets, usually consisting of residential mortgages or other public debt. The covered bond asset pool is ring-fenced, dynamically managed, and remains on the balance sheet of the issuer. The issuer replaces non-performing assets and maintains a minimum overcollateralization level. U.S. lawmakers, regulators, and financial institutions are currently working toward jump-starting a market for U.S. issued covered bonds. Recent academic research has focused on the determinants of covered bond spreads and whether these instruments can become an alternative source of mortgage financing in the U.S.     

国有企业“债转股”政策:功能缺陷与制度依赖——项基于国有企业“债转股”政策跟踪调查的研究

伴随着我国经济体制改革向纵深发展,国有企业负债比率过高的问题更加突出显示出来。为了解决这个问题,我国实施了“债转股”政策。本文讨论四个命题:(1)国有企业是负债比率过高还是收益率过低;(2)“债转股”政策究竟是使国有企业“财务解困”还是“体制解困”;(3)“债转股”政策究竟是转移金融风险还是化解金融风险;(4)资产管理公司为国有企业和国有商业银行解困,将来谁为资产管理公司解困。本文认为“债转股”政策设计存在功能缺陷与制度依赖。国有企业“债转股”政策的成功依赖于国有企业(商业银行)现代企业制度的建立与完善。     

资产负债观在我国新会计准则中的应用：意义与特征

资产负债观是面向资产负债表,以资产和负债为主的计价观,认为企业的收益是资产和负债变化的结果而不是收入和费用配比的结果。我国在新会计准则中引入资产负债观会计理念,有助于企业从传统的利润指标转向致力于企业的长期发展,从而推动我国资本市场的健康发展。本文结合资产负债观在新准则中的具体应用,揭示了其丰富的理论内涵及其在我国新会计准则中应用的特点和意义。