The Pricing of Italian Equity Returns

In this paper, we investigate the relationship between common risk factors and average returns for Italian stocks. Our research has identified the Italian stock market's economic variables by using the results from factor analyses and time series regressions. We study several multi‐factor models combining the relevant macroeconomic variables with the mimicking equity portfolios SMB (small minus big) and HML (high minus low) proposed by Fama and French (1993). The key question we want to ask ourselves, is whether the influential role of the size and book‐to‐market equity factors in explaining average stock returns can stand up well when competing with some macroeconomic factors. In other words, do stock returns carry some risk premium that is independent of either the market return or the economic forces that underlie the common variation in returns? Our empirical work estimates risk premiums using both traditional two‐pass procedures and one‐pass (full information) methodologies. We show that only the market index and variables linked to interest rate shifts are consistently priced in the Italian stock returns. The role of other factors, and in particular both the size and the price‐to book ratio, are crucially dependent on the estimation procedure. (J.E.L.: G11, G12).     

A Sectoral Approach Balancing Global Efficiency and Equity

This paper explores the idea that a properly designed sectoral approach could be the answer to two sets of constraints that hinder international agreements on climate change, namely a genuine concern from developing countries for economic growth and competitiveness issues from industrialized countries. Our sectoral approach builds on three premises: (i) cap-and-trade systems are established in industrialized countries and intensity targets in developing countries, (ii) sectors subject to international trade abide by the rules of the countries in which they trade and (iii) a fraction of the revenues from permits in industrialized countries go towards carbon mitigation in developing countries. We design an economic model that features interactions in three carbon-intensive sectors (two of which are internationally traded) and two countries (an industrialized country and a developing country). Two scenarios are constructed: an Enhanced Sectoral Approach, which refers to our proposal, and a Global Cap, which implements a uniform CO₂ price. We compare the two scenarios in terms of total welfare and equity. It is shown that, for a minor global welfare loss, the Enhanced Sectoral Approach ranks high in terms of equity for emerging countries. This approach also eliminates competitiveness and leakage issues.     

承销商托市对新股初始回报的影响--对上海A股市场的实证研究

新股初始回报地下是国内外研究关注的热点。承销商托市不仅是影响新股初回报的重要因素，还是使资本市场健康运作，保护投资者利益的一个关键。但迄今为止，国内对影响新股初始回报因素的讨论均未涉及承销商托市。为此，本文建立了中国股市的收益率分布偏度模型，证实了上海股市承销商托市的存在，发现了托市的行为模式、主要托市对象，分析了托市对股市的影响，为更全面、准确的掌握新股初始回报变化规律，了解中国股市的情况提供了条件。     

证券投资风险计量理论评述

证券投资是一种高风险高收益的金融投资。自Markowitz创立投资组合理论以来，对证券投资风险计量的研究一直是金融投资研究的热点问题之一。本文对现有计量理论进行评述，并对它们之间的关系进行分析，为证券投资风险计量的进一步研究提供基础。     

Persistence and Predictability of Skewness in Country Equity Market Returns

This article explores the skewness characteristics of eighteen developed country equity market returns. The empirical results indicate that country skewness tends to have the same sign for different measurement intervals. Also, the magnitude of country skewness increases as the measurement interval increases. Further, the results indicate that positive skewness is not a predominant phenomenon. In addition, this study examines the predictability of country skewness using a Spearman Rank Order test and an autoregression test. The findings generally indicate that past monthly country skewness could not be used to reliably predict the extent of skewness of future periods.

     

The Foreign Trade and Sectoral Impact of Truck Road Pricing for Cross-Border Trade

Truck road pricing is on the brink of beingintroduced in a number of European countries.The experience gained from Switzerland, thefirst country worldwide to implement such adistant-dependent pricing scheme, has provedinvaluable. Nevertheless, significant questionsstill remain. The present paper attempts toprovide some clarity by analysing the welfareand sectoral impact resulting from theintroduction of truck road pricing with respectto foreign trade. It is shown that this impactcan be separated into four effects: the pureterms of trade effect, the tax revenue effect,the transit tax revenue effect and the resourcegain effect (resources set free by a reductionin transport activity). A CGE simulation ofeach of these effects identifies theirquantitative implications. Out of the foureffects the pure terms of trade effect turnsout to dominate at both the sectoral andaggregate level. It triggers a trade-inducedwelfare loss. The tax revenue effect, and lessso the transit revenue effect, mitigate thisloss. For a full road transport costinternalization a trade-induced welfare loss isquantified for Austria at 1.3%. Sensitivity ofthis and other aggregate variables is high withrespect to household reaction to transport taxrevenue refunding. The trade-induced welfareloss of variable size as explored in thisarticle counterbalances a fraction of thewelfare gain due to internalization.     

基于半方差风险计量模型的组合投资分析

通过对马柯维茨的均值-方差模型(the μ-V)和笔者的半方差模型(the ESV)在组合投资中进行对比实证分析,文章廓清了笼罩在均值-方差模型及其风险定义上的迷雾,使半方差模型在组合投资中的突破性指导价值进一步明晰化.     

Exchange Rate Exposure of Sectoral Returns and Volatilities: Further Evidence From Japanese Industrial Sectors

In this paper we argue that the commonly employed exposure coefficient/beta is inadequate for capturing the entire impact of exchange rate changes on firms' future operating cash flows. Instead, we employ the bivariate Glosten–Jagannathan–Runkle generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity mean model to investigate four aspects of exchange rate exposure, including sensitivity of stock returns to exchange rate changes, sensitivity of stock returns to the volatility of exchange rate changes, sensitivity of conditional variance of returns to exchange rate volatility, and the dynamic conditional correlation between returns and exchange rate changes, respectively, using data from 10 industrial sectors in Japan. We find significant evidence of such exchange rate exposure which is not captured by the conventional measure. The diagnostic statistics confirm the adequacy of our model, and, hence, the robustness of the results.     

Portfolio Implications of an Equity Rain in Australia*

In the next decade Australia will experience a substantial privatization program. This represents a switch away from public debt financing towards public equity financing. In this paper, estimates of the likely effect of the government's privatization program on corporate financing are provided. The main result of an increase in the supply of equities along with a commensurate reduction in the supply of government debt is to cause a significant increase in the relative cost of equity, thereby creating incentives for corporate financiers to emphasize reliance on debt financing relative to equity financing. The estimated effect on the weighted cost of finance in the economy, while positive, is small     

欧元对中国对外经贸的影响

欧元作为一种交易货币和储备货币将为中国的经济发展提供机遇，使发展中国家获得一个重要的资金筹措市场，并为全球货币体系与世界金融制度改革提供了示范效应。但是，欧元对中国经济发展的负面影响不容忽视。     

Foreign Portfolio Equity Investments, Financial Liberalization, and Economic Development

Reform of local capital markets and relaxation of capital controls to attract foreign portfolio investments (FPIs) has become an integral part of development strategy. The proximity of market openings and large, sudden shifts in international capital flows gave credence to the notion that the liberalization was the primary culprit in precipitating the recent Asian crisis. Hence, this paper reassesses the benefits and costs of FPIs from the perspective of the recipients. Specifically, it discusses the various FPI contributions and presents empirical evidence regarding the relationship between FPIs and market development, degree of capital market integration, cost of capital, cross-market correlation and market volatility. It is clear that the evidence on benefits of FPIs is strong, whereas the policy concerns regarding resource mobilization, market comovements, contagion, and volatility are largely unwarranted. The authors make some policy suggestions regarding preconditions for capital market openings, market regulation, and liberalization sequencing.     

Two Tales on the Returns to Education: The Impact of Trade on Wages

This paper uses micro data from the Current Population Survey combined with data from the US International Trade Commission and Bureau of Economic Analysis to evaluate the impacts of international trade (import penetration and export intensiveness) on wages with a special focus on the returns to education. Consistent with the literature, our empirical analysis provides evidence that the wage rates of similarly skilled workers differ across net‐exporting, net‐importing, and nontradable industries. Our results add to the literature by showing that the wage gap usually found across importing and exporting industries vanishes for highly skilled workers (workers with college degree and beyond) when we control for the cross‐effect between international trade and education, but the wage gap due to international trade still persists for low‐skilled workers. This finding supports the view that education serves as an equalizer and counterbalances the adverse impact from import penetration on wages of highly skilled workers.     

基于风险调整指标RAROC的投资组合保险策略研究

投资组合保险策略一方面被用于规避和管理市场风险,另一方面由于策略本身的特殊性面临着潜在的风险。本文在传统的ROC指标中加入用来衡量组合保险策略风险的VaR,其核心思想是将未来可预见的损失也考虑在内,衡量经风险调整后的收益大小,构建出一个经风险调整后的指标RAROC,用来衡量组合保险策略单位风险的回报,并与传统的绩效评价指标期末资产值、收益率、偏度指标等进行比较,采用不同的风险乘数及不同的要保额度,分析在多头、空头及震荡市场条件下,CPPI策略和TIPP策略与买入持有策略的表现。结果显示,在引入风险因子来衡量单位风险带来的收益时,各种策略在不同的市场表现明显有差别。在多头市场,CPPI策略的表现明显优于TIPP策略;在震荡市场,TIPP策略的表现明显优于CPPI策略;在空头市场,CPPI策略的表现优于TIPP策略。     

The Impact of Regulatory Reform on the Portfolio Performance of Australian Credit Unions

This paper applies a portfolio approach to examine the effectiveness of the Financial Institutions (FI) Code (1992) in achieving the twin regulatory objectives of stability and efficiency in Australian credit unions. A model is developed to examine the allocation of credit union portfolios in unregulated and regulation-constrained environments. The impact of regulatory constraints on portfolio performance prior to and following the introduction of the FI Code is thus assessed. The paper concludes that, overall, the FI Code increased both the stability and the allocative efficiency of credit unions over that of previous regulatory regimes.     

The Volatility and Transmission of Equity Returns among the G-7 Countries: the post-Bretton Woods experience

This paper models the volatility of national stock market returns of the G-7 countries using ARCH and GARCH modeling techniques. Then, via the use of vector autoregression analysis, the international transmission of volatility among the countries is explored for the period between April 1973 and July 1990. Variance decompositions are calculated in order to quantify the impacts of volatility shocks in one market on the others. Impulse response functions are used to inspect the dynamic responses of domestic and foreign volatility shocks. Results indicate that volatility transmission among the G-7 countries is the norm in the post-Bretton Woods era. Further, we find that volatility shocks are generally absorbed within six to nine months.     

收益率分形分布下的一种组合投资模型

文章从资产收益率的分形分布和下方风险的角度构造了一种不相关资产的组合投资模型,并进行了相应的实例分析.     

The Effects of Risk,Inflation and Dividend Yield on Common Stock Returns: The case of Korea

This study examines whether market equilibrium models of capital asset prices have any empirical validity in the Korean stock market, which is thin and relatively under-developed. In any study of the Korean stock market, the impurity of its ex post stock price and the attendant presumption of suspected non-normality of the stock return distribution cannot be ignored. This study finds that the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) has some explanatory power in the Korean stock market. In particular when data are segmented by time periods, the results tend to validate the general premises of the CAPM for the most recent period, i.e., between 1984 and 1987. [313]     

股权规模、风险溢价与投资者理性--基于中国股市的经验研究

基于从市场模型出发,来研究风险溢价在中国是否存在,分析风险系数β值及规模因素对预测股票收益的作用,以及通过数据分段来分析我国股市处于不同运行周期情况下的投资者行为特征,发现:(1)在较为合理的估算方法下,β值对股票收益的作用得到很大的提升,而这一结论与国内一些学者研究的结论有着明显差异。(2)在两个观测期内都没有捕获到正风险溢价存在的证据,即在第一个观测期内存在弱小盘股效应,在第二个观测期内则发现较明显的大盘股效应和负风险溢价现象。研究结果表明,当股市处于较为正常的运行周期时,投资者呈现出较高的理性特征;而当股市处于长期熊市期间时,我国投资者呈现出明显的非理性特征。     

风险投资后管理对被投企业创业导向的影响研究

已有文献分别围绕风险投资后管理、创业导向展开研究,但缺乏两者间关系的研究。明确了投资后管理中增值服务的内容划分及界定,指出增值服务与创业导向间的资源纽带,提出网络资源支持、后续融资支持、战略支持、管理支持4种增值服务均正向促进被投企业的创业导向。基于委托代理理论,从风险资本与被投企业间的投资契约机理出发,厘清了投资后管理中监控影响创业导向的路径,指出监控负向影响创业导向。