THE RELATIVE PERFORMANCE OF FORMAL AND INFORMAL SECTORS IN INDIA

We evaluate the relative performance of formal and informal sectors in India by looking into their productivity difference. Recognizing the intersectoral linkages in the economy, the competitive general equilibrium prices are computed; these signal the productivities. Our model synthesizes frontier analysis with the general equilibrium approach to generate shadow prices. The formal activities are found to be more productive than the informal. However, the informal services sector is as efficient as the formal one. There would be an overall productivity gain of 22% to the economy if factors were allocated to productive activities. The shadow prices from the model indicate that the formal capital and informal capital are scarce factors, while it has been the opposite for formal (regular) and informal (casual) labour. Formal labour is more productive than its informal counterpart; formal capital and informal capital are equally productive.     

The impact of embodied and disembodied technical progress on productivity gaps—An applied general equilibrium analysis for Germany and Spain

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the impact of disembodied and of capital embodied technical progress on the closing of international productivity gaps. Within the framework of a partial equilibrium model the direct effect of technical progress on the change of productivity gaps can be calculated directly. However, since the two types of technical progress affect unit costs of industries differently, and hence the system of relative prices, an applied general equilibrium model is required in order to measure the indirect effect of technical progress on the change in productivity gaps. We employ variable cost functions with quasi-fixed effective capital, depending on the rate of embodied technical change, in order to generate a system of prices. Based on similarly structured applied general equilibrium models for Spain and Germany, we quantify the effects of sectoral embodied or disembodied technical change on reduction in national inflation as well as the effect on closing productivity gaps.     

Real rigidities, productivity improvements and investment dynamics

The theoretical literature on business cycles predicts a positive investment response to productivity improvements, a prediction we question from theoretical and empirical perspectives. We show that a short-term negative response of investment to a positive technology shock is consistent with a reasonably parameterized new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model in which firm-specific capital introduces an additional real rigidity, and monetary policy is not fully accommodative. Employing Bayesian techniques, we provide evidence that permanent productivity improvements have short-term, contractionary effects on investment. Although this result can be obtained from both firm-specific and rental capital models, only in the case of the former is the average price duration in line with the microeconometric evidence.     

Is technical change embodied in the capital stock or new investment?

The question of technical change and productivity growth is one of the fundamental empirical issues of our time. Surprisingly, Solow's original question of whether technical change is embodied in investment or the entire capital stock has been largely neglected. This paper seeks to bridge the early work of Solow and others on the extent of embodiment of technical change with the more modern approach to estimating the structure of production and technical change using multifactor cost functions. We also attempted to identify the source and structural nature of embodied technical change by decomposing it. Our theoretical model is applied to a pooled cross-section of six OECD countries for the 1965–1989 period. Our preferred model is one of full factor-augmenting embodied technical change because technical change augmenting the entire capital stock tends to overstate quality change in the aggregate capital stock more than that embodied in new investment. This model specification supports the view that technical change is embodied in the stock of capital structure and is embodied in new investment of capital equipment.     

STRUCTURAL CHANGES IN CHINA'S ECONOMIC GROWTH DURING THE REFORM PERIOD

We identify some empirical evidences for the structural changes in the determinants of regional growth, disparities and the convergence speed to the per capita GDP equilibrium during the reform period of 1978–1998 in China. We estimate a growth regression model by augmenting the Solow model with a provincial-level panel data set. The existence of conditional convergence is confirmed throughout the reform period, but the convergence speed is faster in the 1990s than the early reform period. Agro-industry-based rural development contributed to regional growth and eased interregional disparities in the early reform period. Foreign capital inflows took a significant leading role for regional growth during the 1990s, but aggravated interregional disparities. Education and non-state enterprises were among the other keys for regional growth throughout the reform period. These results implies that for achieving sustainable and balanced growth in future, it is essential to extend foreign capital investment to the interior regions, in association with further development of human capital resource and non-state local enterprises.     

进口贸易、吸收能力与国际研发技术溢出的实证分析

本文研究了以进口贸易为传导机制的国际技术溢出对我国全要素生产率的影响.结果表明,贸易伙伴国溢出的研发与我国全要素生产率之间存在着稳定的长期均衡关系,但是具体促进程度受到中国人力资本和贸易开放程度等吸收能力因素的制约.在此实证研究的基础上,本文提出了相应的政策建议.     

A portfolio approach to endogenous growth: equilibrium and optimal policy

This paper develops a portfolio approach to modeling endogenous growth in continuous time that is especially suitable for addressing fiscal and financial issues in policy design. The analysis focuses on the equilibrium relationship between fiscal and financial policy, rates of return and wealth allocation. We analyze two models. The first is based on the Arrow-Romer model with increasing returns and an external effect of capital on labor productivity. The second draws on Barro's analysis of government spending and endogenous growth. In both models, we study the equilibrium allocation and discuss the optimal fiscal and financial policy.     

Institutional Ownership, Strategic Choices and Corporate Efficiency: Evidence from Japan

Based on the tenets of capital allocation systems theory, stewardship theory, and 'going concern' concept of business, institutional ownership is proposed to affect corporate productivity, both directly and indirectly, in large Japanese corporations through a set of four firm-level choices: product/market development, R&D intensity, capital intensity, and leverage. Using data on 118 corporations drawn from five industry sectors in Japan, and applying a partial mediation technique, this study tests an integrated, causal model of the relationships among these variables. Results show mixed support for the model. No direct relationship between institutional ownership and productivity is observed. However, institutional ownership affects productivity indirectly through R&D intensity and leverage. Although product/market development and capital intensity also affect productivity, institutional ownership has no significant relationship with them.     

Factor Utilization and Adjusted Productivity Estimates for the UK*

This paper derives series for capital utilization, labour effort and total factor productivity (TFP) for the UK from a general equilibrium model with variable utilization and labour adjustment costs. Capital utilization tracks survey‐based measures closely, but persistent movements in total hours worked mean our labour effort series is not as highly correlated with its comparators. Our estimated TFP series is less cyclical than the traditional Solow residual, although a weighted average of capital utilization and labour effort – aggregate factor utilization – and the Solow residual are not closely related.     

Embodying Embodiment in a Structural,Macroeconomic Input-Output Model

In this paper, I develop a regression-based system of labour productivity equations that account for capital-embodied technological change and I incorporate this system into IDLIFT, a structural, macroeconomic input-output model of the US economy. Builders of regression-based forecasting models have long had difficulty finding labour productivity equations that exhibit the "Solowian' property that movements in investment should cause accompanying movements in labour productivity. The production theory developed by Solow and others dictates that this causation is driven by the effect of traditional capital deepening as well as technological change embodied in capital. Lack of measurement of the latter has hampered the ability of researchers to estimate properly the productivity-investment relationship. Recent research by Wilson (2001) has alleviated this difficulty by estimating industry-level embodied technological change. In this paper, I utilize those estimates to construct capital stocks adjusted for technological change and then use these adjusted stocks to estimate Solow-type labour productivity equations. It is shown that replacing IDLIFT's former productivity equations, based on changes in output and time trends, with the new equations, results in a convergence between the dynamic behaviour of the model and that predicted by traditional (Solowian) production theory.     

Dynamic and non-neutral productivity effects of foreign ownership: A nonparametric approach

This paper studies two novel productivity characteristics of foreign acquisition on high-tech manufacturing firms: the dynamic and the non-Hicks-neutral effects. A dynamic productivity effect of foreign ownership arises when adoption of foreign technology and management practices takes time to fully realize. Furthermore, these dynamic adjustments may be capital or labor augmenting as adoption of advanced production technologies tends to have non-neutral productivity implications in developed countries. We propose and implement an econometric framework to estimate both effects using firm-level data from China's manufacturing sector. Our framework extends a nonparametric productivity framework, in which identification is achieved using a firm's first-order conditions and timing assumptions. We find strong evidence of dynamic and non-neutral effects from foreign ownership, with significant differences across investment sources. Investment from OECD sources is found to provide a long-term productivity boost for all but the largest recipients, while that from Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan does not raise performance. These findings have implications for China's declining labor share and for the rising domestic value-added content of its high-tech exports.     

Further model-based estimates of US total manufacturing production capital and technology, 1949–2005

Production capital and technology (i.e., total factor productivity) in US manufacturing are fundamental for understanding output and productivity growth of the US economy but are unobserved at this level of aggregation and must be estimated before being used in empirical analysis. Previously, we developed a method for estimating production capital and technology based on an estimated dynamic structural economic model and applied the method using annual SIC data for 1947–1997 to estimate production capital and technology in US total manufacturing. In this paper, we update this work by reestimating the model and production capital and technology using annual SIC data for 1949–2001 and partly overlapping NAICS data for 1987–2005.     

Why are population flows so persistent?

A neoclassical model of local growth is developed by integrating the static equilibrium underlying compensating differential theory as the steady state of a neoclassical growth model. Numerical results show that even very small frictions to labor and capital mobility along with small changes in local productivity or local quality of life suffice to cause highly persistent population flows. Wages and house prices, in contrast, jump most of the way to their new steady state. The model suggests that cross-sectional regressions of local population growth can help to identify past and present changes in the determinants of representative-agent welfare. More generally, it provides a framework for interpreting observed local growth rates.     

Workforce churning,human capital disruption,and organisational performance in different technological contexts

We assess the influence of workforce churning on the relationship between organisational human capital and labour productivity. Building on collective turnover research and human capital theory, we examine how the components of workforce churning (i.e., voluntary turnover, involuntary turnover, and new hires) influence the relationship between existing human capital and labour productivity. Further, we examine how this influence varies according to a firm's technological intensity. Our data come from 1,911 Italian manufacturing firms and reveals that collective voluntary turnover negatively affects the relationship between organisational human capital and labour productivity regardless of an organisation's level of technological intensity. In contrast, collective involuntary turnover enhances the relationship between human capital and labour productivity, and its effect is even stronger for organisations with more technologically intensive operations. Finally, our results suggest that the integration of new hires disrupts the relationship between human capital and productivity, particularly for firms with technologically intensive operations.     

Technical efficiency and region The U.S. manufacturing sector 1972–1977

In this paper we estimate the extent of technological bias in an interregional context for U.S. manufacturing during the period 1972–1977 using a factor augmenting production function approach. We present estimates of the elasticity of factor substitution for each of the 48 states in the sample using a variable elasticity of substitution production function. Next, we use these estimates to generate estimates of the rates of change in the efficiencies of capital and labor inputs and compare these estimates across states and census regions. We also examine and compare estimates of total factor productivity across states and regions. We ,find that the average annual rates of growth of capital efficiency during the period are 5.5 percent in the Northeast, 5.3 percent in the Northcentral, 5.6 percent in the West and 3.1 percent in the South. The rates of change of the efficiencies of labor are found to be negative across all regions except the South. The rates of change of total factor productivity are found to be 1.7 percent in the Northeast, 2.3 percent in the Northcentral, 2.4 percent in the West and 1.7 percent in the South. We also find that between 33 percent and 56 percent of the growth of output across regions is due to technical progress.     

Indeterminacy in a finance constrained unionized economy

We introduce labor unions and unemployment in a finance constrained monetary economy with heterogenous agents and productive labor externalities. We find that unions, introducing endogenous markup variability, influence the dynamics of the model. Although a lower bound for labor externalities is always required for indeterminacy, this lower bound decreases with union power when the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor is above one. For values of this elasticity below one, this result is reversed. We also show that Hopf bifurcations may occur as union bargaining power crosses a critical value. Finally, we find that unions increase simultaneously steady state employment, capital accumulation and welfare iff the (equilibrium) marginal productivity of labor is decreasing in employment.     

Population,pensions, and endogenous economic growth

We study the effect of a declining labor force on the incentives to engage in labor-saving technical change and ask how this effect is influenced by institutional characteristics of the pension scheme. When labor is scarcer it becomes more expensive and innovation investments that increase labor productivity are more profitable. We incorporate this channel in a new dynamic general equilibrium model with endogenous economic growth and heterogeneous overlapping generations. We calibrate the model for the US economy and obtain the following results. First, the effect of a decline in population growth on labor productivity growth is positive and quantitatively significant. In our benchmark, it is predicted to increase from an average annual growth rate of 1.74% over 1990–2000 to 2.41% in 2100. Second, institutional characteristics of the pension system matter both for the growth performance and for individual welfare. Third, the assessment of pension reform proposals may depend on whether economic growth is endogenous or exogenous.     

Taxes, Federal Grants, Local Public Spending, and Growth

In a dynamic model with both private and local public capital accumulation, this paper examines how federal and local income taxes, local consumption tax, and federal matching grants for local public consumption and local public investment affect the long-run equilibrium (equilibria) of private consumption, private capital accumulation, local public consumption, and local public capital stock.     

Impact of ICT on the productivity of the firm: evidence from Turkish manufacturing

This paper aims to explore the impact of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) on labor productivity growth in Turkish manufacturing. This is the first attempt at exploring the impact of ICT on productivity in Turkish manufacturing at the firm level. The analysis is based on firm level data obtained from Turkish Statistical Institute (TURKSTAT) and covers the period from 2003 to 2012. The data used in the analysis includes all firms employing 19+ workers in Turkish manufacturing industry. Growth accounting results show that the contributions of conventional and ICT capital to value added growth are not significantly different from each other. On the other hand, results based both on static (fixed-effects) and dynamic panel data analysis highlight the positive influence on firms’ productivity exerted by ICT capital. The findings show that the impact of ICT capital on productivity is larger by about 25 to 50% than that of conventional capital. This contribution of ICT capital is higher than that of non-ICT capital for small sized and low-tech firms. Our findings imply that investing in ICT capital increases firm productivity by increasing the productivity of labor and also that convention growth accounting approaches may not be adequate to identify such linkages.     

资本市场扭曲对城市全要素生产率的影响研究——基于规模和技术视角

在创新驱动发展的背景下,资本市场化改革有助于提高资本配置效率,进而对全要素生产率产生影响。基于中国城市相关数据,利用生产函数法和随机前沿估计法测算资本市场扭曲,并利用DEA-Malmquist指数法对城市全要素生产率进行分解,从规模和技术视角切入,实证分析了资本市场扭曲对城市规模效率、技术效率和全要素生产率的影响。研究发现,资本市场扭曲增加对规模效率具有正向影响,对技术效率和全要生产率具有负向影响。反事实分析结果显示,当消除资本市场扭曲后,从全国层面看,规模效率平均下降0.54%,技术效率平均上升4.25%,全要素生产率平均上升1.54%。