On causality and the monetary approach to the balance of payments: The European experience

Using Sims causality test it is shown that the negative relationship between the rate of domestic credit creation and the rate of change of foreign exchange reserves is consistent with the direction of causality proposed by the monetary approach to the balance of payments and it is not simply the result of central bank sterilization or private bank credit policy. Evidence of such opposite causality is present in Sweden and the United Kingdom but it is part of a two-way feedback structure still consistent with the monetary approach.     

The Yugoslav deficit on balance of payments

The article sets out to analyse what measures would have been necessary to remove the persistant post-war Yugoslav deficit on balance of payments, and the problems and constraints, both economic and more broadly socio-political, that any given policy measure, or set of measures, might have run into. On the basis of this some conclusions are drawn on the nature of Yugoslav economic development since the war, and the relevance of Yugoslav experience to developmental problems in general. The article includes detailed statistics on the Yugoslav balance of payments.     

De-industrialisation and the balance of payments in advanced economies

This paper defines de-industrialisation as a secular declinein the share of manufacturing in national employment. De-industrialisation,in this sense, has been a widespread feature of economic growthin advanced economies in recent decades. The paper considersbriefly what explains this development and quantifies some ofthe factors responsible. It then examines the experience ofBritain and America, which are two countries that have combinedrapid de-industrialisation with a strong overall economic performance.The paper considers both the domestic situation of manufacturingindustry in these countries and its foreign trade performance.It concludes by examining in detail the British balance of payments,and documenting how improvements in the non-manufacturing spherehave helped offset a worsening performance in manufacturingtrade.     

Trade protection and balance of payments problems

A model to be used for planning short-term in-patient medical care is presented. The individual clinic is treated as a production unit which produces different kinds of treated wardcases with a given technique of production (given production-cost-structure). It is assumed to maximize the yearly number of treated wardcases under the constraints of (1) The yearly demand for different kinds of treated wardcases, which is assumed to be proportional to the number of citizens within the area which the clinic serves (the clinics population), (2) The yearly budget which is assigned by public authorities and has to cover all costs as the medical care is supplied free of charge, (3) The clinics physical capacity, measured by the number of beds.

The model has been applied to the branch of general medicine using the estimated production-cost-structure at an existing clinic within this branch. The kind of information that one can get is illustrated, for example: Given a clinic with a certain technique of production (production-cost-structure) which optimizes its production in the way that the model assumes, what is the marginal effects of changes in the size of budget, physical capacity or the size of population? In the case of an existing clinic, perhaps it serves too big a population (the marginal effect of reducing this constraint is zero)? or, when establishing a given kind of clinic what is the best combination of population size, size of budget and physical capacity? How much of the demand will be unsatisfied with different combinations, i.e. how large will the queues become?     

Tax rebating of exports and the balance of payments

Tax rebating has recently been given heavy emphasis as a means of improving a country's balance of payments and recommendations have been made for the substitution of taxes that are fully rebated on exports for taxes that are only partly rebated or are not rebated at all. This paper gives the conditions under which tax rebating would improve a country's balance of payments. It shows that whether tax rebating of exports improves the balance of payments or not depends upon the size of the price elasticity and of the import component of exports. It then shows that, with the available evidence concerning the size of the price elasticities and of the import components in a number of European countries, export rebating may harm rather than improve their balances of payments.     

The impact of technology imports on technology balance of payments in Korea: an ARDL bounds testing approach

This study empirically analyses the impact of technology imports on the technology balance of payments in Korea during 1981–2013 using the autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing approach of co-integration. We estimate the long- and short-run coefficients of the technology balance of payments with respect to technology imports. The results show that technology imports produce positive effects on the technology balance of payments in the long run, although it has negative effects in the short run.     

On the optimal distribution of income and educational expenditure

This paper extends the work of Arrow and Bruno on the optimal distribution of educational expenditure. It examines educational policies when both education and income redistribution policies are simultaneously optimised. The analysis is undertaken for both fixed and variable labour supply. It is shown that these modifications lead to more regressive educational policies than suggested by Arrow and Bruno.     

The relationship between healthcare expenditure and disposable personal income in the US states: a fractional integration and cointegration analysis

This paper analyses the empirical relationship between inflation and growth using a panel data estimation technique, multiple-regime panel smooth transition regression, which takes into account the nonlinearities in the data. By using a panel data set for 10 countries in the Southern African Development Community permitting us to control for unobserved heterogeneity at both country and time levels, we find that a statistically significant negative relationship exists between inflation and growth for inflation rates above the critical threshold levels of 12 and 32% which are endogenously determined. Furthermore, we remedy the cross-section dependence with the common correlated effects estimator.     

Finance,power, and the British balance of payments

ABSTRACT

The Brexit referendum marks a critical juncture in Britain’s political economy. Benjamin Cohen argues that a nation’s monetary sovereignty lies in its balance of payments (BoP) flexibility (2008, 2015). I argue that a country’s position in the global financial régime must also be accounted for when explaining its BoP dynamics. This allows us to understand why, while sterling has long lost its ‘world currency’ status, Britain’s BoP exhibits some of the same features associated with American ‘exorbitant privilege’. To appreciate the UK’s own BoP flexibilities as well as to flesh out the Anglo-American axis in the international financial order, I compare the UK’s external balance sheets with those of the US. Given the complexities and uncertainties inherent in BoP analyses, I advise against micro-analyses of the BoP in favour of a broader approach that takes into account macro-dynamics as well as the International Political Economy (IPE) concerns outlined above. Elaborating such an analysis for the UK BoP, I explore the potential implications of Brexit for Britain’s external balance sheets and its political-economic future. While Britain’s financial power has helped insulate its balance sheets from external shocks, Britain’s impending departure from the European Union heralds a period of considerable uncertainty.     

中国国际收支平衡:模式选择与目标方向

改革开放以来,随着我国积极参与国际分工合作,工业化和市场化进程不断加深,我国的国际收支状况发生了根本性的变化,主要矛盾由外汇短缺转为贸易顺差过大和外汇储备增长过快.自2001年中国加入WTO以来,国际收支"双顺差"高速增长所带来的人民币升值压力及其他相关负面影响已引起国家的高度关注(见图1),虽然采取了一系列旨在促进国际收支平衡的政策,但从效果来看尚未达到预想的目标,中国国际收支继续保持经常项目和资本项目"双顺差"持续快速增长格局.     

Political capitalism: The interaction between income inequality,economic freedom and democracy

We study the relationship between income inequality and economic freedom for a panel of 100 countries for the 1971–2010 period. Using a panel Granger non-causality approach, we reject the null hypothesis of Granger non-causality running from income inequality to economic freedom, but not vice versa. From a series of dynamic panel estimations we show that the effect of income inequality on economic freedom is negative and robust to the inclusion of additional controls. In particular, inequality is negatively associated with those components of economic freedom related to international trade, domestic market regulation as well as the rule of law and property rights protection. We argue that the negative effect of inequality on economic freedom is due to the economic elite converting its economic power into de facto political power to defend its economic interests; these interests run counter to economic freedom, discouraging innovation and competition as well as protecting the elite's rents. Finally, we show that economic freedom decreases with income inequality even in democratic countries, suggesting that democratic institutions do not prevent economic freedom from eroding. We argue that the latter finding corresponds to a system of political capitalism or captured democracy, where a powerful economic elite can nevertheless exercise de facto political power by cooperating with politicians and other decision-makers for their mutual benefit.     

Trade balance and income in historical perspective

This paper develops a dynamic analysis of the trade balance to investigate the roles of supply and demand shocks. It also introduces global shocks in the analysis to take into account the comovement of income across countries. The results, based on the long-run historical data and a structural VAR analysis, show that, in the U.K., Australia, Canada, and Sweden, domestic and global supply shocks, while dominant causes in long-term and cyclical changes in output, are unimportant for the trade balance. The trade balance is explained mostly by shocks that cause transitory changes in income. Transitory income shocks cause income and the trade balance to move in opposite directions in all countries except Sweden. The countercyclical behavior of the trade balance seems to be a robust feature in the U.K. and Canada but not in the smaller economies of Australia and Sweden.This research was supported by a summer research grant from the Carol Martin Gatton College of Business and Economics at the University of Kentucky. The grant was made possible by a donation of funds to the College by Ashland Inc. I appreciate the Editor, two anonymous referees, Dick Gift and Mark Toma for their helpful suggestions. All remaining errors are mine.     

Capital movements, growth, and balance of payments

This paper develops a stylized model to examine how the adjustments of balance-of-payments accounts along with the growth path depend on capital mobility, investment behavior, saving behavior, and the magnitude of stock variables. The dynamic investment theory developed by Uzawa and the dynamic portfolio behavior model developed by Metzler are the two building blocks of our model. A two-panel diagram is developed to illustrate the flow and stock aspects of short-run equilibrium. To analyze the pattern of economic growth, we employ dynamic phase diagrams.     

Growth promoting policies,distribution, and the balance of payments

This paper studies the consequences of growth promoting policies for income distribution, aggregate savings, and the balance of payments in a small open economy. We focus on the case of a reduction in capital income taxation. Then the traditional OLG model, which emphasizes the inter-generational distribution, predicts that both investment and consumption are boosted. It is obvious then that the trade balance deteriorates. However, we show that this result is no longer robust if one allows for heterogeneity of agents within each generation. Then the intra-generational distribution effect, which implies a negative relationship between the share of capital income and aggregate consumption, may cause consumption to decline, and the trade balance to improve. This effect concurs with the classical, or post-Keynesian view on the relationship between distribution and savings. This post-Keynesian effect is, however, important for the short run only; the long-term result for the trade balance is not essentially changed by allowing for intra-generational heterogeneity.     

A model for capital movements in Finland's balance of payments

In this paper a disaggregated quarterly model for capital movements in Finland's balance of payments is presented. This model is one block of the Bank of Finland quarterly econometric model of the Finnish economy.The structural equations are seen, in the case of Finland, mainly from the demand side. These equations are derived using the expected utility framework. However, supply conditions, in the form of domestic credit rationing and especially in the form of extensive controls on international capital movements, also play a considerable role.     

Pitfalls in the Theory of Growth: An application to the balance of payments constrained growth model

In 1851 the French Social economist Auguste Ott discussed the problem of gluts and commercial crises, together with the issue of distributive justice between workers in co-operative societies. He did so by means of a ‘simple reproduction scheme’ sharing some features with modern intersectoral transactions tables, in particular in terms of their graphical representation. This paper presents Ott's theory of crises (which was based on the disappointment of expectations) and the context of his model, and discusses its peculiarities, supplying a new piece for the reconstruction of the prehistory of input–output analysis.     

Time series analysis of the relationship between private consumer expenditure and disposable personal income for the case of Austria

Zusammenfassung In der vorliegenden Arbeit werden Verfahren der Zeitreihenanalyse zur Untersuchung des Zusammenhangs zwischen Konsum und Einkommen herangezogen. In der theoretischen Literatur wird die Existenz eines derartigen Zusammenhangs ja seit Jahrzehnten unterstellt. Die empirische Verifikation dieser evidenten Kausalbeziehung hat sich jedoch als sehr schwierig herausgestellt. Vor allem die Prognosefähigkeit der zahlreich geschätzten Regressionsgleichungen läßt zu wünschen übrig. Dies dürfte darauf zurückgehen, daß die restriktiven Annahmen, die bei der Schätzung von Regressionsmodellen über die Fehlerglieder gemacht werden, für Daten aus dem Bereich der Ökonomie nicht erfüllt sind.Ich verwende daher in der vorliegenden Studie Verfahren der Zeitreihenanalyse. Ein Vorteil dieser Methoden liegt nun darin, daß sie eine wirklichkeitsnähere Spezifikation des Modells für die Gleichungsfehler zulassen. Mit diesen Zeitreihenmodellen werden dann Prognosen der Konsum- und Einkommensentwicklung ermittelt. Ein Vergleich dieser Prognosen mit Vorhersagen, die mit traditionellen Verfahren erstellt wurden, zeigt, daß Zeitreihenmodelle — zumindest was Konsum und Einkommen betrifft — kleinere mittlere quadratische Prognosefehler aufweisen. Aus dieser Erkenntnis, die auch für andere wichtige makroökonomische Zeitreihen Gültigkeit hat, sollte jedoch nicht der Schluß gezogen werden, daß nur noch Verfahren der Zeitreihenanalyse für kurzfristige Prognosezwecke herangezogen werden dürfen. Zeitreihenmodelle und strukturelle Gleichungssysteme sind nämlich nicht völlig konträre Prognosemethoden, von denen nur die eine oder die andere angewendet werden darf. Ein optimales Prognosevorgehen sollte vielmehr Elemente beider Methodenkomplexe beinhalten. Strukturelle Gleichungssysteme erlauben die Aufnahme von Erkenntnissen der ökonomischen Theorie in die Modellstruktur, während Zeitreihenmodelle wertvolle Information für die Spezifikation der Lagstrukturen und Fehlermodelle liefern.     

Public expenditure,income distribution,and growth in OECD countries

Economic growth and the several topics related to it have been studied by economists since their earliest publications. Two different approaches to this area can be found in Neoclassical and Endogenous growth models. The economic growth analysis has focused its attention on the factors that influence the growth of nations, such as fiscal policy or improvement of human capital. Nevertheless, it is also interesting to study the effects of income distribution on economic growth to determine if it has positive effects on growth. The aim of this paper is to study these effects. The authors will develop a theoretical model in which they will introduce public capital in a typical Cobb-Douglas production function. They will estimate OLS, GLS, and SUR fixed effects models for time series and cross-sectional data.     

The impact of trade liberalisation on exports, imports and the balance of payments of developing countries

This paper uses panel data and times series/cross section analysis to estimate the effect of trade liberalisation on export growth, import growth, the balance of trade and the balance of payments for a sample of 22 developing countries that have adopted trade liberalisation policies since the mid-1970s. We find that liberalisation stimulated export growth but raised import growth by more, leading to a worsening of the balance of trade and payments. To the extent that this has constrained the growth of output and living standards, the findings have important implications for the sequencing and degree of liberalisation.     

Exchange rate differential and balance of payments under dual exchange markets

This paper develops a model of an economy that uses two exchange markets: an official market in which the exchange rate is determined by central bank intervention, and a free market in which the exchange rate is determined by market forces. The official market handles selected imports and exports, while the free market handles the remaining imports and exports, and capital transactions. The model is used to discuss the effects of various policies on the differential between the free and the official exchange rates and on the balance of payments.