论我国商业银行再造

我国的金融改革已进行了十多年,银行界和理论界一直在寻求最适合我国国情的改革途径。在加入WTO和外国银行强大的挑战面前,如何将这一改革深入下去,如何按照国际惯例和规范对业务流程、组织架构、经营管理模式进行“银行再造”是我国商业银行必须从理论和实践上加以解决的新课题。本文从三个方面论述了对银行业的再造,即:再造业务流程、再造组织模式、运用信息技术资源对银行进行再造。     

论我国商业银行再造

我国的金融改革已进行了十多年,银行界和理论界一直在寻求最适合我国国情的改革途径.在加入WTO和外国银行强大的挑战面前,如何将这一改革深入下去,如何按照国际惯例和规范对业务流程、组织架构、经营管理模式进行"银行再造"是我国商业银行必须从理论和实践上加以解决的新课题.本文从三个方面论述了对银行业的再造,即:再造业务流程、再造组织模式、运用信息技术资源对银行进行再造.     

发展战略视角下的中小商业银行组织架构分析

组织架构是商业银行业务运行和管理实施的组织方式,在商业银行的运营中发挥着重要作用。当前,我国中小商业银行效率低下的组织结构对市场需求和业务发展缺乏弹性和适应性,导致银行效率低下。本文认为,应坚持以客户为中心为原则,从业务流程管理、风险管理、服务创新、人才培养和团队素质建设综合入手,进行中小商业银行组织结构再造。     

商业银行小企业组织架构改革的目标模式与路径探索

组织架构是商业银行业务运行的有机载体,科学、灵活、高效的组织架构是商业银行业务持续发展、有效运转的基本前提。本文基于生产可能性边界和交易费用理论的经济学视角以及商业银行再造理论的管理学视角,总结近年来商业银行在小企业组织架构方面的探索和实践,将其归纳为"离行式"和"在行式"两种组织架构模式,并在介绍国外商业银行小企业金融组织架构的两种主流模式——事业部制和矩阵制的基础上,指明了我国商业银行小企业组织架构目标模式的改革方向和策略。     

我国商业银行经济资本管理的经验比较与启示

本文阐述我国商业银行经济资本管理的发展历程,对我国商业银行进行经济资本管理的做法进行比较分析,并在此基础上提出我国商业银行推进经济资本管理的思路:强化经济资本管理的理念、构建高素质的运营管理团队、建立经济资本考核体系、进行银行组织架构和业务流程再造、积累数据加快评级模型开发.     

商业银行组织架构改革

商业银行组织架构的整合和再造已呈燎原之势,学术界对该问题的讨论也日趋热烈,编者摘选了几篇有关的文章,或从整体或从某一业务条线的角度解释和分析了商业银行组织架构改革的必然性及其特征,在此以飨读者。     

推进信贷业务重组与流程再造

通过业务重组与流程再造使银行获取巨大、潜在的利益,并提升核心竞争力,已成为国内外银行界普遍的战略思维.信贷业务是商业银行的主要资产业务,也是收益的主要来源,进行信贷业务重组与流程再造是当前我国商业银行在建设现代商业银行的过程中亟待研究的重大课题.     

商业银行组织架构改革——欧洲商业银行组织架构改革简介

商业银行组织架构的整合和再造已呈燎原之势，学术界对该问题的讨论也日趋热烈，编选了几篇有关的章，或从整体或从某一业务条线的角度解释和分析了商业银行组织架构改革的必然性及其特征，在此以飨读。     

商行理财事业部制改革构想

近年来,我国银行理财市场规模以年均近100％的增速飙升,急速扩张的银行理财业务已经偏离了“代客理财”的轨道.理财资金流向高风险领域且存在严重期限错配、将表内转至表外的监管套利等等,由此积聚的风险问题已经成为银行理财市场健康良性发展的阻碍,有效隔离风险已成为当下银行理财业务发展的关键问题. 国外商业银行事业部制管理体制实践 20世纪90年代以来,随着商业银行经营环境的变化和业务规模的不断扩大,商业银行组织结构发生了较大的变化,欧美国家商业银行进行了以流程再造为重点的管理体制变革,按照“以客户为中心”的准则再造业务流程,进而以业务流程为中心再造组织流程、管理流程和决策流程.其核心是根据客户类别和客户需求进行组织架构和业务流程的再造和设计.     

农业银行经营机制再造思考

不断创新和完善经营机制是农行加快有效发展的必然要求和重要保障。本文主要通过对再造农行用工、激励机制、风险内控机制等进行分析研究,探索建立班代商业银行经营管理机制。一、加快组织架构扁平化改革,构建直通式运作机制组织结掏足否合理,对农行快速发展至关重要。再造组织体系架构,就是要减少管理层次,提升经营层次,克服由于历史原因形成的点多、面广、链条长以及人员多、工作效率低下等竞争弱势,实现业务发展过程中的人力、财力、     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…     

银行管理信息平台建设发展的思考

一、目前国内银行IT发展现状及面临的问题 银行数据集中工作的完成,标志着银行的业务由电子化建设阶段转入信息化建设阶段.一方面银行数据的集中提供了丰富全面的基础数据,面对日益庞大的数据源,如何将数字转化为对银行有用的信息,并从中发现知识,为银行的经营决策提供支持,是摆在银行IT人员面前的一个亟待解决的问题.另一方面用户对银行信息的需求日益增长,如果银行没有一套完整、实用的信息管理系统,将对业务发展非常不利.南京爱立信公司倒戈花旗银行事件曾经轰动一时,其中一个重要原因就是中国本地银行不能满足爱立信全球总部对南京爱立信公司的要求:每周财务上报和每天贷款限额管理.这一事件为中国商业银行的未来发展敲响了警钟,如果不加快管理信息系统的开发,迅速提升业务管理水平,类似的事件还会接连不断地发生,并最终导致国内商业银行在同国外商业银行的竞争中全面溃败.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.