Sequential decisions with tests

We consider a principal-agent problem where the principal wishes to be endorsed by a sequence of agents, but cannot truthfully reveal type. In the standard “herding” model, the agents learn from each other's decisions, which can lead to cascades on a given decision when later agents' private information is swamped. We augment the standard model to allow the principal to subject herself to a test designed to provide public information about her type. She must decide how tough a test to attempt from a continuum of test types, which involves trading off the higher probability of passing an easier test against the greater impact from passing a tougher test. We find that the principal will always choose to be tested, and will prefer a tough test to a neutral or easy one.     

Mechanism design with a liquidity constrained buyer: The 2×2 case

This paper studies the implications of buyers' liquidity constraints for the optimal selling strategy. The possibility that a buyer faces a binding liquidity constraint affects the seller's strategy in a nontrivial way. Specifically, when a seller has one unit of a good to sell to a buyer with a quasilinear utility function, the `no-haggling' result indicates that textbook monopoly pricing is optimal, absent liquidity constraints. Introducing a potentially binding liquidity constraint vitiates the no-haggling result, and can make it strictly beneficial for the seller to use nonlinear pricing, to commit to a declining price sequence, or to require the buyer to post a cash bond.     

A dynamic analysis of the differential incidence of capital and labour taxes in a two-class economy

This paper studies a differential incidence model, where a rise in a capital tax is accompanied by a change in a labour tax to hold constant the per capita government revenue, in a two-class growing economy. The major concern is to analyse the conditions necessary for the burden of such a tax substitution to fall solely, partially, or inconsequentially on capitalists or workers. The results obtained indicate that a higher rate of capital tax tends to impose a greater burden on workers.     

CANADIAN FARM INCOME SAFETY NETS AND U.S. COUNTERVAIL LAW

This paper provides an empirical analysis of the factors explaining U.S. countervail action. Factors that indicate changes in the political economic environment are incorporated into a logit model to explain the propensity to initiate a countervail suit. These factors, augmented by variables representing foreign subsidy specificity, are used in a logit model to explain the propensity to levy a countervail duty, once a suit is initiated. Evidence indicates that factors that would lead to political lobbying are significant in the initiation of a countervail suit. However, these variables are not significant in explaining the propensity to actually levy a duty; rather, the analysis finds that subsidy specificity criteria are the significant variables.     

Estimating fiscal policy reaction functions: The role of model specification

The literature has not yet come to a consensus on the actual responses of fiscal policy to output and to past public debt levels within industrialized countries. While the cyclical adjustment literature has suggested a strong response of the primary surplus to the output gap, the time-series literature has tended to report a far smaller response. However, recent theoretical findings suggest that some of this difference may be due to the way in which the time-series literature has typically handled the issue of autocorrelation, in a way which is incompatible with the timing of automatic stabilizers. In order to find a way around this problem, we formulate and estimate a set of fiscal policy reaction functions for the euro area, which allow for the primary surplus to feature three components: a fast-moving (stabilizing) response to the output gap, a consolidating response to the debt-GDP ratio, and an exogenous, persistent fiscal policy shifter. When we formulate a fiscal reaction function in this way, our estimates are compatible in magnitude with previous estimates from the cyclical adjustment literature. Furthermore, based on a set of model comparison exercises in line with what has been done in the monetary policy literature, we argue that our specification explains the data better than does the more commonly used specification.     

A Note on Inflation Targeting

The authors present a pedagogical graphical exposition to illustrate the stabilizing effect of price target zones. Based on a textbook AD-AS apparatus, they find that authorities' commitment to defend a price target zone will affect the public's inflation expectations and, in turn, reduce actual inflation. They also find that, when the economy experiences supply shocks, the announcement that the monetary authorities intend to defend a price target zone will reduce the variability of domestic prices but raise the variability of domestic output relative to a free-price regime. However, when the economy experiences demand shocks, a price target zone tends to lower the variability of both domestic prices and out-put relative to a free-price regime.     

Incentive Regulation of Prices When Costs are Sunk

We present a model featuring irreversible investment, economies of scale, uncertain future demand and capital prices, and a regulator who sets the firm’s output price according to the cost structure of a hypothetical replacement firm. We show that a replacement firm has a fundamental cost advantage over the regulated firm: it can better exploit the economies of scale because it has not had to confront the historical uncertainties faced by the regulated firm. We show that setting prices so low that a replacement firm is just willing to participate is insufficient to allow the regulated firm to expect to break even whenever it has to invest. Thus, unless the regulator is willing to incur costly monitoring to ensure the firm invests, revenue must be allowed in excess of that required for a replacement firm to participate. This contrasts with much of the existing literature, which argues that the market value of a regulated firm should equal the cost of replacing its existing assets. We also obtain a closed-form solution for the regulated firm’s output price when this price is set at discrete intervals. In contrast to rate of return regulation, we find that resetting the regulated price more frequently can increase the risk faced by the firm’s owners, and that this is reflected in a higher output price and a higher weighted-average cost of capital.     

REGIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT DISPARITIES: AN EVALUATION OF POLICY MEASURES*

This paper analyses the efficacy of regional and federal government policies in reducing inter‐regional unemployment disparities. We use as our framework a two‐region general equilibrium model with a given freely‐mobile supply of labour. We assume inter‐regional migration to occur in response to inter‐regional utility differentials. Each region has households, firms and a regional government. In addition to regional governments, there is a federal government. The firms in a region use a single factor, labour, to produce a single good which we assume to be different to that produced in the other region. It is supplied to households and to the regional government in the form of payroll taxes. Households consume some, trade some with households in the other region and give some up to the federal government as income tax. Firms and households bargain over wages and firms then choose employment to maximise profits. The resulting equilibrium will generally not be a full‐employment one. We simulate a linearised numerical version of the model. We examine seven alternative policies, six carried out by a regional government and one by the federal government. In the first group there are traditional tax/expenditure polices as well as policies which might be seen as attacking the natural rate of unemployment: changes in unemployment benefits, changes in union power, changes in the labour force and changes in labour productivity. The federal government policy is a regionally‐differentiated fiscal policy. Contrary to expectations, many policies which have traditionally been recommended to alleviate unemployment are found, in fact, to exacerbate the unemployment problem.     

Application of logistic analysis to the history of physics

Recently, two analyses have tried to put technological progress in a larger context. One interpretation hypothesizes that technological progress is likely to continue at increasingly higher rates of change. Another interpretation, which includes data from the beginning of the universe to the present, suggests that the universe is approaching a transition point in a logistic development of complexity. This logistic development is similar to the way ideas or products diffuse in a population, i.e., the rate of discovery in a field of knowledge is proportional to the amount discovered and the amount to be discovered. To test a part of this hypothesis, a leading indicator field (fundamental physics) was identified and the events in the history of this field were analyzed. Twelve subfields were identified and grouped into six stages. Each stage seemed to demonstrate a logistic-like development. By analyzing both the median time of development and the characteristic time of development of these stages, the overall development of this one field was found to suggest logistic development. These data seem to indicate that development in fundamental physics is slowing down, with at least one subfield beyond string physics yet to be developed. The data tend to support the hypothesis that a knowledge field can develop logistically.     

Reforming Social Security in a Transition Economy: The Case of Lithuania

This paper points out a number of problems associated with the existing pension system in Lithuania. Reforms are proposed, including (i) a substantial increase in the basic pension benefit rate, financed on a pay-as-you-go basis, provided universally, and regulated according to wage/price indexation; (ii) a significant cut in the tax contribution rate to the public pension system matched by a rise in the VAT; (iii) a rise in the retirement age to 65 for both men and women; and (iv) a gradual conversion to a private, funded, mandatory pension system to replace the earnings-related part of the current pension system.     

Niche overlap and limiting similarity: an ecological approach to the theory of the firm

This paper suggests an approach, based upon an analogy with different species competing in the environment for fixed resources, to the question of why variety is such a persistent feature of free market economies. Attention is centred upon a market characterised by a group of consumers with a distribution of incomes, which leads to a continuum of demands for different output qualities. The identification of various sufficient conditions then allows the argument to proceed through a mathematical structure first outlined in the theoretical ecology literature, resulting in a precise prediction regarding the limit to similarity between firms. This results is then applied to the U.K. Supermarket industry in 1988, and is used to provide guidance to the state of competition within the industry in that year.     

在推进主体功能区建设中增强区域可持续发展能力

作为促进区域协调发展的一项重要措施,十六届五中全会提出,要明确不同区域的功能定位,这预示着主体功能区划和主体功能区建设即将成为我国经济生活中的热点。本文在构建区域可持续发展能力分析框架和区域主体功能区划模型的基础上,分析了各类主体功能区的建设重点,最终得出主体功能区建设有利于增强区域可持续发展能力的结论。     

A tool for fiscal policy planning in a medium-term fiscal framework: The FMM-MTFF model

This paper describes the FMM-MTFF model, a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model developed to support the implementation of a Medium-Term Fiscal Framework (MTFF) in emerging market and developing economies. The model exhibits the following features. First, fiscal policy is defined in terms of multi-year fiscal plans, instead of restricting attention to univariate, single-period fiscal shocks. Second, the model temporarily deactivates the fiscal rule to avoid forcing fiscal policy to be mechanically countercyclical and sustainable. Third, the model is calibrated to match a three-sector, stylized version of a country’s input-output table, and finally, the model uses a chain-weighted procedure to measure GDP, a method consistent with what national account compilers do. The model is calibrated to Colombian and Peruvian data to illustrate the use of the model as a tool to quantify the scale of the fiscal challenges, to provide consistent medium-term macro fiscal projections and to assess the quantitative implications of past reforms and alternative fiscal policy plans on the economies, i.e., the typical questions of interest to an MTFF.     

A game-theoretic model of coalition formation among primates

This paper models the coalition formation process among primates as a sequential game. The population consists of individuals having distinct social ranks which is determined by the individual’s resource holding potential. Each member of the population is interested in gaining access to a food resource, either individually or via a coalition. At any given stage of the game, a player can either propose a specific coalition or he can be proposed to in order to join one. Hence, the strategy of a player consists of a sequence of decisions regarding who to propose to for the formation of a coalition and which proposals to accept or reject. We derive the preferences of the players over the various coalition structures under the assumption that the probability of a coalition to obtain the resource is given by a logistic distribution as a function of relative strengths of the players. We show that, given the primates’ strategic behavior, a variety of different coalition structures can emerge in equilibrium.      

A Pre-purchase Product Trial of a Monopolist with Multiple Products

For the heterogeneous consumers who do not know their individual utilities from a new product, a pre-purchase product trial would be helpful. We found out that a monopoly firm with two similar products would have a strong incentive not to allow a pre-purchase product trial, even though it is socially optimal to allow it. Furthermore, it is more likely for a monopoly firm with a pre-purchase product trial policy to introduce a new product to the market when introducing a new product is socially optimal.     

The value of nonindigenous species risk assessment in international trade

Managing the introduction of nonindigenous species is becoming a major goal of policy-makers at regional, national and international scales. Here we investigate, at the national level, the ideal design and expected net benefits of a risk assessment program for evaluating the desirability of nonindigenous species imports. We show how to enhance the statistical rigor of such a system by correcting a common non-random sampling problem encountered in the data. This correction enables model output to be interpreted in an economically relevant way and facilitates a theoretically rigorous characterization of the balance between trade and nonindigenous species establishment risk. Using reptiles and amphibians imported to the U.S. as a case study, we characterize economic outcomes over a range of cases and demonstrate substantial expected returns to such a screening program, relative to the current effectively open-door policy. Our results are informative for the current debate in the U.S. about whether to require federal agencies to apply risk assessment before allowing a species for import. The framework presented decomposes a complex argument about risk management into component economic and statistical parts, allowing for debate and improved understanding over each element to inform the overall program in a transparent fashion.     

Climate Change and the Polanyian Counter-movement: Carbon Markets or Degrowth?

In the midst of a wave of market expansion, carbon markets have been proposed as the best way to address global climate change. While some argue that carbon markets represent a modern example of a Polanyian counter-movement to the environmental crisis, we adopt a structural interpretation of Polanyi to refute this claim. Carbon markets represent a further expansion of markets that fails to address the underlying contradictions related to the commodification of nature. In addition, they increase risks to society and the domination of economic elites. While carbon markets further subject social and ecological relations to market mechanisms, we examine degrowth as a possible response to climate change that prioritises social and environmental goals over economic growth. While degrowth continues to be dismissed as impractical or impossible, a growing number of scholars, scientists and activists argue it is the only way to address global climate change. In contrast to carbon markets, we argue degrowth could represent a genuine Polanyian counter-movement in response to climate change. In addition, degrowth could help all those disenfranchised by market fundamentalism by addressing the triple crises related to the commodification of land, labour and money.     

Is it still economic to build a new coal-fired power plant in the U.S.? A real option analysis

In the U.S., virtually no new coal-fired power plants have been built in recent years. Both industry experts and academics seem to believe that no rational firm will build a new coal-fired plant. Will such a trend continue in the future? To provide insights into this question, we investigate the optimal decision of an electricity company with an irreversible and deferrable opportunity to build either a new coal-fired or natural gas-fired power plant as its new base-load resource. According to our real option analysis, the optimal decision depends on the location. In the case of the eastern U.S., it is optimal to choose a natural gas plant if a firm is given a choice among a new natural gas plant, a new coal plant and deferring the investment. However, contrary to the common sentiment in the industry and academia, building a new coal plant in the western U.S. is still more economical than building a new natural gas plant in the absence of emission pricing. Furthermore, introducing carbon pricing to western U.S. states, as California did, can substantially increase the probability that a firm will optimally choose a natural gas plant over a coal plant.     

择优分配最优化原理及其应用

本文讨论在资源约束条件下如何分配使产出的效果极大。从最简单的两块土地分配化肥使增产的粮食极大化开始,在边际上不断调整,得出一般约束条件下的最优化方法,即拉格朗日乘子法。此优化原理更可以推广到动态过程,借用物理学中的捷降线问题,把落差看成资源,在逐步分配落差中使旅程的时间最短,进而把动态问题一般化,推导出变分法中的欧拉方程。择优分配原理可以将拉氏乘数法和欧拉方程都解释为资源的优化配置问题,从而给出了它们的经济学意义。本方法为一基本的优化原理,有广泛的应用可能。     

How the source of the entrant's advantage limits entry‐deterring tying

I revisit a simple model of entry‐deterring tying—example 1 from Whinston's (1990) seminal paper—but allow the potential entrant to have either a cost advantage or a willingness‐to‐pay (WTP) advantage relative to the incumbent. I show that, compared to the usual case in which the potential entrant is cost‐advantaged, tying is less effective against an entrant with a WTP advantage because an entrant with a large WTP advantage may be able to induce the buyer to buy both the tied bundle and the entrant's product. I also show that tying but failing to deter entry can be less costly when facing an entrant with a WTP advantage than when facing an entrant with a cost advantage. For a firm facing uncertainty about, for example, the entrant's entry costs, this makes tying a more attractive entry deterrence strategy against a WTP‐advantaged entrant. These results shed light on the important policy question of which markets are most likely to be susceptible to entry‐deterring tying.