Understanding Markov-switching rational expectations models

We develop a set of necessary and sufficient conditions for equilibria to be determinate in a class of forward-looking Markov-switching rational expectations models and we develop an algorithm to check these conditions in practice. We use three examples, based on the new-Keynesian model of monetary policy, to illustrate our technique. Our work connects applied econometric models of Markov-switching with forward looking rational expectations models and allows an applied researcher to construct the likelihood function for models in this class over a parameter space that includes a determinate region and an indeterminate region.     

Multiple equilibria in dynamic rational expectations models: A critical review

Multiple equilibria are a ubiquitous feature of dynamic rational expectations models. Researchers have been divided on the implications of this phenomenon. Some have viewed this as a reflection of reality and a possible explanation of a wide range of economic phenomena. Others have suggested various selection criteria for choosing one among the many equilibria. This paper reviews the major selection criteria that have been proposed, and through application to three well-known models shows under what circumstances one might expect them to choose the same or different equilibria. In addition, this paper proposes a new criteria based on the limit of finite-horizon equilibria and investigates its relation to the other criteria.     

Uniqueness of ASM solutions in rational expectations models: An example

Using a technique recently proposed by Gourieroux, Laffont and Monfort (1979) we prove that for a process m_t asymptotically stationary in mean (ASM) the solution for the price level equation proposed in Fischer (1979) and in Blinder and Fischer (1979) is the unique ASM solution.     

The government behavioural constraint in rational expectations models

Models with rational expectations typically include state variables whose values are controlled by the government. Hence, the need to specify behavioural rules for the authorities. Our purpose is to show, in the context of a well-known Cagan type model of the demand for money, that the assumption of rational expectations imposes the hitherto neglected requirement of rationality of the postulated behaviour of government. In particular the occurance of non-unique solutions highlights the need for a rational choice between these on grounds other than mathematical convenience or ad hoc economic assumptions of minimum variance, terminal conditions etc.     

Two generalized rational models for forecasting innovation diffusion

This article demonstrates the development and use of two Generalized Rational Models I and II (GRM I and II) representing innovation diffusion. Specifically, the GRM II covers the same area as the NSRL model, which includes the Coleman and the Blackman/Fisher-Pry models, while the GRM I covers the same area as a modified NSRL model (mod. NSRL), also introduced hereby, and including Floyd, Blackman/Fisher-Pry, Sharif-Kabir and Exponential models. Both the GRM I and the GRM II provide a form of differential equation which always has for a solution a fact which cannot be met when dealing with the NSRL and mod. NSRL models.Some applications are presented, first to illustrate the wide applicability and the usefulness of the models and second to demonstrate the alternate use of the GRM I and mod. NSRL, and GRM II and NSRL models, which usually approximate very well.     

Cobweb versus rational expectations models: Lessons from the market for public school teachers

A cobweb model of occupational choice is found to fit the data almost as well as a rational expectations model, even though there are large forecastable changes in demand. Striking differences, however, are revealed when we simulate the two models.     

On the derivation of reduced forms of rational expectations models

This paper introduces a more intuitive and straightforward method to obtain the reduced forms of linear models containing expectations of the current endogenous variables formed rationally in various previous periods, besides the two proposed by Lucas and Aoki and Canzoneri. This method is then used, with the aid of some examples, to derive the conditions for complete (i.e., in mean and variance) policy ineffectiveness in this kind of models.     

An improved single equation estimation procedure for rational expectations models

This paper introduces a new readily programmable single-equation errors in variables estimation procedure for rational expectations models. For the illustrative example provided, this new estimator outperforms the currently available estimators.     

Nonlinear economic growth: Some theory and cross-country evidence

This paper aims to test the existence of different growth regimes, that is of different relationships between growth rate and income level. We propose a simple nonlinear growth model and test its empirical implications by estimating Markov transition matrices and stochastic kernels. We show that growth is indeed nonlinear: a first phase of slow or zero growth is followed by a take-off and, finally, by a phase of deceleration. We discuss the relevance of these results with respect to the issue of convergence and reversibility of development, in the light of models of structural change and technological diffusion.     

Bubbles in UK house prices: evidence from ESTR models

Recent movements in stock and house prices have led to an examination of the presence of bubbles. Whilst, there is extensive research on stock price data, there is relatively less for house prices. This paper uses a present‐value model for house prices to test for the presence of bubbles. The results support the presence of a non‐fundamental component within UK national and regional house prices. In particular, for the majority of series considered, evidence is presented of linear non‐stationarity within the fundamental present‐value relationship, and of non‐linear stationarity, implying the presence of a non‐fundamental, or bubble, component. Furthermore, evidence is presented that prices adjust quicker when they are below fundamental equilibrium, than when they are above fundamental equilibrium, i.e. there is downward price stickiness. These results support the hypothesis that house price dynamics can be characterised by price‐to‐price momentum. Finally, forecast evidence suggests that real prices are likely to adjust downwards and converge with fundamental value.     

Workplace risks and wages: Canadian evidence from alternative models

Three alternative models of compensating wage premiums for risk are estimated: the conventional OLS wage regression; an endogenous risk model that accounts for the simultaneity that may occur if workers of high potential earnings prefer safer jobs; and a self-selection model to account for the possibility that workers sort into jobs based on unobserved tolerance for risk that affects their productivity in dangerous work environments. The results suggest that the existing Canadian estimates, which have been based on the basic model, may seriously underestimate the wage premium for risk and hence the implied cost of fatal and non-fatal injuries. JEL Classification: J28, J31
Risques au travail et salaires: résultats canadiens pour plusieurs modèles. Les auteurs calibrent trois modèles pour évaluer la compensation salariale pour les risques au travail: l'équation conventionnelle de régression des salaires estimée par la méthode des moindres carrés ordinaires; un modèle de risque endogène qui tient compte de la simultanéité qui peut se produire si les travailleurs dont les revenus potentiels sont élevés préfèrent les emplois où il y a moins de risques; un modèle d'auto-sélection où les travailleurs se répartissent entre les emplois sur la base d'une tolérance non-observée pour le risque qui affecte leur productivité dans des environnements de travail dangereux. Les résultats suggèrent que les évaluations canadiennes en vogue, qui sont fondées sur le modèle de base, peuvent sous-estimer sérieusement la prime salariale de risque et donc les coûts des blessures mortelles ou non que les accidents entraînent.     

On linear models with rational expectations which admit a unique solution

Based on a generalization of Doob's theorem, the method used in this paper is applied to derive the unique reduced form a general linear model containing rational expectations of the current endogenous variables made in several previous periods. In this procedure there is no need for assumptions on the structure of the policy instruments.     

Involuntary saving through unanticipated inflation: Some further empirical evidence

In a recent paper Deaton formulated a novel disequilibrium theory of saving behaviour. The essence of his hypothesis is that individual consumers have no possible means of distinguishing relative from absolute price changes. This hypothesises subject to further empirical testing in our note. Using data for Canada, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States we re-examine the hypothesis assuming either static, adaptive, extrapolative or rational price and output expectations.     

Non-nested tests of new classical versus Keynesian models: further evidence

This paper re-runs the experiment conducted by Dadkhah and Valbuena (1985), using data generated by the Australian, Canadian, Japanese, Swiss and Swedish economies. The aim of this exercise is to discriminate between new classical and Keynesian accounts of the business cycle. The results obtained in the present study are broadly supportive of Dadkhah and Valbuena's earlier findings in that the Keynesian model generally outperforms the new classical alternative.     

The Velocity of Circulation: Some new evidence on international integration

This study tests for the integration of money velocity movements among the major European Union countries. For this purpose, a new test is employed that allows one to confirm or reject integration on the basis of whether or not the first largest principal component, based on deviations of velocity growth rates from a base country, is stationary. Using monthly data covering the last 25 years, this study finds that integration was strongest during the 1970s and during 1983-92. These findings modify the institutionalist view that common financial developments have meant that velocities have moved together on an upward secular trend over the last 40 years. Developments with regard to currency substitution along with exchange rate policy and capital controls can affect relative interest rates and income movements and therefore the co-movements in money velocities.     

Ordinary least squares versus principal components regression: Some simulation evidence

Simulation experiments are used to compare OLS and several principal components (PCR) estimators of the classical linear regression model. According to mean square error and mean absolute error criteria OLS dominates PCR in these experiments.     

Growth and export expansion in developing countries: Some empirical evidence

This paper analyzes the empirical relationship between economic growth and export expansion in developing countries as observed through an intercountry cross-section. Employing data from 55 middle income developing countries for the period 1960–1977, bivariate tests revealed significant positive associations between growth and various other economic variables including the growth of manufacturing output, investment, total exports, and manufacturing exports. A production function model was also specified and estimated with the cross-sectional data. The results indicated that export performance was important, along with capital formation, in explaining the intercountry variance in GDP growth rates during the 1960–1977 period.     

Industry margins and the business cycle: Some new microeconomic evidence

Analysis of margin flexibility is an important item on the research agendas in macroeconomics and industrial economics. Using a new panel data set for U.S. manufacturing industries, we offer new evidence on the cyclical sensitivity of price-cost margins and on the concentration-margins debate in industrial organization.     

The political economy of public goods: Some evidence from India

We are interested in how public goods get allocated by a centralized state. We use data on public goods and social structure from parliamentary constituencies in rural India to understand the allocation of these goods over the 1970s and 1980s. National policies and political agendas during this period emphasized universal access to basic amenities and financed a rapid expansion in rural infrastructure. We find evidence of considerable equalization in many of these facilities, reflecting perhaps the importance of these commitments. Among the historically disadvantaged social groups, those that mobilized themselves politically gained relative to the others. Measures of social heterogeneity that have been emphasized in the recent empirical literature on public goods are relevant but not overwhelming in their importance.