REGIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT DISPARITIES: AN EVALUATION OF POLICY MEASURES*

This paper analyses the efficacy of regional and federal government policies in reducing inter‐regional unemployment disparities. We use as our framework a two‐region general equilibrium model with a given freely‐mobile supply of labour. We assume inter‐regional migration to occur in response to inter‐regional utility differentials. Each region has households, firms and a regional government. In addition to regional governments, there is a federal government. The firms in a region use a single factor, labour, to produce a single good which we assume to be different to that produced in the other region. It is supplied to households and to the regional government in the form of payroll taxes. Households consume some, trade some with households in the other region and give some up to the federal government as income tax. Firms and households bargain over wages and firms then choose employment to maximise profits. The resulting equilibrium will generally not be a full‐employment one. We simulate a linearised numerical version of the model. We examine seven alternative policies, six carried out by a regional government and one by the federal government. In the first group there are traditional tax/expenditure polices as well as policies which might be seen as attacking the natural rate of unemployment: changes in unemployment benefits, changes in union power, changes in the labour force and changes in labour productivity. The federal government policy is a regionally‐differentiated fiscal policy. Contrary to expectations, many policies which have traditionally been recommended to alleviate unemployment are found, in fact, to exacerbate the unemployment problem.     

A dynamic analysis of the differential incidence of capital and labour taxes in a two-class economy

This paper studies a differential incidence model, where a rise in a capital tax is accompanied by a change in a labour tax to hold constant the per capita government revenue, in a two-class growing economy. The major concern is to analyse the conditions necessary for the burden of such a tax substitution to fall solely, partially, or inconsequentially on capitalists or workers. The results obtained indicate that a higher rate of capital tax tends to impose a greater burden on workers.     

A panel data analysis of the effect of corruption on tourism

This study empirically tests the hypothesis that corruption has a negative effect on tourism. Having to pay bribes while on holiday or a business trip increases the costs of travelling to a country where corruption is prevalent. Tourists are thus more likely to travel to countries where these additional costs do not need to be incurred. This hypothesis is tested using a panel data set of over 100 countries and 16 years. The results indicate that a 1-point increase in the Corruption Perception Index (implying a decrease in corruption) results in a 2% to 7% increase in tourist inflows. In addition, tourist inflows rise with GDP per capita, openness and growth and are higher in countries with a temperate climate.     

Exchange rate pass-through and inflation targeting in Peru

It has been widely documented that the exchange rate pass-through to domestic inflation has decreased significantly in most of the industrialized world. As microeconomic factors cannot completely explain such a widespread phenomenon, a macroeconomic explanation linked to the inflationary environment—that a low and more stable inflation rate leads to a decrease in the pass-through—has gained popularity. Using a structural VAR framework, this paper presents evidence of a similar decline in the pass-through in Peru, a small open economy that gradually reduced inflation to international levels in order to adopt a fully fledged inflation targeting scheme in 2002. It is argued that the establishment of a credible regime of low inflation has been instrumental in driving the exchange rate pass-through down.     

Niche overlap and limiting similarity: an ecological approach to the theory of the firm

This paper suggests an approach, based upon an analogy with different species competing in the environment for fixed resources, to the question of why variety is such a persistent feature of free market economies. Attention is centred upon a market characterised by a group of consumers with a distribution of incomes, which leads to a continuum of demands for different output qualities. The identification of various sufficient conditions then allows the argument to proceed through a mathematical structure first outlined in the theoretical ecology literature, resulting in a precise prediction regarding the limit to similarity between firms. This results is then applied to the U.K. Supermarket industry in 1988, and is used to provide guidance to the state of competition within the industry in that year.     

Reforming Social Security in a Transition Economy: The Case of Lithuania

This paper points out a number of problems associated with the existing pension system in Lithuania. Reforms are proposed, including (i) a substantial increase in the basic pension benefit rate, financed on a pay-as-you-go basis, provided universally, and regulated according to wage/price indexation; (ii) a significant cut in the tax contribution rate to the public pension system matched by a rise in the VAT; (iii) a rise in the retirement age to 65 for both men and women; and (iv) a gradual conversion to a private, funded, mandatory pension system to replace the earnings-related part of the current pension system.     

Bank loan portfolios and the Canadian monetary transmission mechanism

Abstract .  Following a monetary tightening, bank loans to consumers decrease. This is true for both mortgage and non-mortgage loans, and it is true for a tightening by the Bank of Canada that is, and is not, a response to a tightening by the Federal Reserve System. In contrast, business loans increase following a monetary tightening. The 'perverse' response of business loans cannot be explained by an increase in the demand for funds due to a reduction in real activity. These results are consistent with a change in bank portfolio behaviour in favour of business loans in response to a monetary tightening.     

Inflation persistence,inflation expectations,and monetary policy in China

This paper constructs a quarterly series of GDP deflator inflation for China from 1979 to 2009 and tests for a structural break with an unknown change point in the dynamic inflation process. Empirical results suggest a significant structural change in inflation persistence. Employing a counterfactual simulation method, we show that the structural change is primarily attributed to better conduct of monetary policy and the resultant better anchored inflation expectations. This finding implies that the quiescence of inflation in China over the past decade could well be followed by a return to a high inflation era in the absence of a determined effort by the monetary authorities in managing inflation expectations. Therefore, the use of a preemptive monetary policy to anchor inflationary expectations and to keep inflation moderate is warranted in China.     

SEQUENTIAL VOTING WHEN LONG ELECTIONS ARE COSTLY

This paper analyzes sequential voting in binary elections when voters are motivated by a desire both to elect their preferred candidate and to avoid a long and costly election. I find a unique equilibrium in which a voter's action depends both on the intensity of the voter's preferences as well as how well the candidates have done in earlier voting rounds. This equilibrium results in momentum in which voters are more likely to vote for the candidate currently in the lead. Furthermore, the probability a voter votes for a candidate is increasing in the size of the candidate's lead. As a consequence, a candidate is more likely to win the election if the candidate's stronger supporters vote earlier in the election.     

Devaluation,Inflation, and the Balance of Payments: A Short-Run Monetary Approach*

In this paper a model is presented to analyze, in a monetary setting, the effects of a once-and-for-all adjustment in the exchange rate in a small economy committed to a fixed exchange-rate system. The effects of such an adjustment are shown to be transitory. After a devaluation the domestic rate of inflation accelerates in relation to the rate of inflation in the rest of the world. The increase in prices reduces the real value of the nominal stock of money and, in order to restore real liquidity to its previous level, foreign-exchange reserves start to flow into the country. However, as monetary equlibrium is reached, the flow of reserves tends to stop and the domestic rate of inflation converges to the world rate.     

择优分配最优化原理及其应用

本文讨论在资源约束条件下如何分配使产出的效果极大。从最简单的两块土地分配化肥使增产的粮食极大化开始,在边际上不断调整,得出一般约束条件下的最优化方法,即拉格朗日乘子法。此优化原理更可以推广到动态过程,借用物理学中的捷降线问题,把落差看成资源,在逐步分配落差中使旅程的时间最短,进而把动态问题一般化,推导出变分法中的欧拉方程。择优分配原理可以将拉氏乘数法和欧拉方程都解释为资源的优化配置问题,从而给出了它们的经济学意义。本方法为一基本的优化原理,有广泛的应用可能。     

Application of logistic analysis to the history of physics

Recently, two analyses have tried to put technological progress in a larger context. One interpretation hypothesizes that technological progress is likely to continue at increasingly higher rates of change. Another interpretation, which includes data from the beginning of the universe to the present, suggests that the universe is approaching a transition point in a logistic development of complexity. This logistic development is similar to the way ideas or products diffuse in a population, i.e., the rate of discovery in a field of knowledge is proportional to the amount discovered and the amount to be discovered. To test a part of this hypothesis, a leading indicator field (fundamental physics) was identified and the events in the history of this field were analyzed. Twelve subfields were identified and grouped into six stages. Each stage seemed to demonstrate a logistic-like development. By analyzing both the median time of development and the characteristic time of development of these stages, the overall development of this one field was found to suggest logistic development. These data seem to indicate that development in fundamental physics is slowing down, with at least one subfield beyond string physics yet to be developed. The data tend to support the hypothesis that a knowledge field can develop logistically.     

Happiness,income and poverty

There is considerable evidence from a variety of sources to suggest that well-being is a function of relative income. These findings have been used to explain the Easterlin Paradox, whereby a rise in income for all does not lead to a rise in average happiness in a country (even though the cross section relationship between income and happiness is positive). This relativity of utility has led to calls for policy to focus away from GDP. I here first discuss some of the evidence that well-being is indeed relative in income, but then consider two relatively little-analysed issues to suggest that there may continue to be a role for GDP per capita in happiness-based policy: the inequality of subjective well-being, and the specific case of those in income poverty.     

Are benevolent dictators altruistic in groups? A within-subject design

We use a within-subject experimental design to investigate whether systematic relationships exist across distinct features of individual preferences: altruism in a two-person context, risk aversion in monetary outcomes, and social preferences in a group context. We find that altruism is related to demographic variables, including years of education, gender, and age. Perhaps most importantly, self allocation in a two-person dictator game is related to social preferences in a group context. Participants who are more generous in a dictator game are more likely to vote against their self-interest in a group tax redistribution game which we interpret to be an expression of social preferences.     

Appropriability,services and reputation

The appropriability regime (Teece 1986) that innovating service firms face is generally weaker than what firms in manufacturing sectors face. An important means to appropriate benefits from innovation that service firms can use is their reputation. This conceptual paper offers insights into how a firm’s reputation helps in appropriating value from innovation. Depending on the nature of a service, different kinds of third parties come into play in establishing reputation. In helping firms establish a reputation, such third parties influence customer decisions to acquire a service. While ‘to produce a service is to organise a solution to a problem’, and thus does not involve a third party, is true for pure services in particular, for a service firm to benefit from innovation such others are involved.     

Critical mass of users versus critical mass of services in a multiproduct information service system

In this paper we study the economic behaviour of the suppliers of a set of advanced telecommunications services with a joint adoption cost (common access facilities, learning process, etc.). In fixing the two-part tariffs for their services the suppliers have to share the burden of leaving to the users a surplus sufficient to cover the adoption cost. The lack of coordination in supplying a critical mass of services or in the pricing decisions has high changes to result in suboptimal or unviable diffusion of the new technology as a whole. We present a static optimization model of user behaviour, and derive access and usage demand with a two-part tariff and a joint adoption cost. We compare noncooperative and cooperative market equilibria in a duopoly with perfect information; finally we discuss the extension of our analysis to the case of imperfect information in a dynamic setting.     

The design of voluntary agreements in oligopolistic markets

This paper analyses the conditions under which a group of firms have the incentive to sign a voluntary agreement (VA) to control polluting emissions even in the presence of free-riding by other firms in the industry. We consider a policy framework in which firms in a given industry decide whether or not to sign a VA proposed by an environmental regulator. We identify the features that a VA should possess in order to provide firms with an incentive to participate in the VA and to enhance its economic and environmental effectiveness. Under very general conditions on the shape of the demand schedule, we obtain the following results. First, a VA does not belong to the equilibrium of the coalition game when benefits from voluntary emission abatement are a pure public good, unless an industry emission target is set by the regulator. Second, in the presence of partial spillovers—i.e. when signatories obtain more benefits from the VA than non-signatories—a VA can belong to the equilibrium only if a minimum participation rule is guaranteed. Third, a VA with a minimum participation rule and a minimum mandatory emission abatement may improve welfare (and even industry profits) compared to a VA in which firms are free to set their own profit maximizing abatement level.     

CANADIAN FARM INCOME SAFETY NETS AND U.S. COUNTERVAIL LAW

This paper provides an empirical analysis of the factors explaining U.S. countervail action. Factors that indicate changes in the political economic environment are incorporated into a logit model to explain the propensity to initiate a countervail suit. These factors, augmented by variables representing foreign subsidy specificity, are used in a logit model to explain the propensity to levy a countervail duty, once a suit is initiated. Evidence indicates that factors that would lead to political lobbying are significant in the initiation of a countervail suit. However, these variables are not significant in explaining the propensity to actually levy a duty; rather, the analysis finds that subsidy specificity criteria are the significant variables.     

The complementary nature of technological capabilities: Measurement and robustness issues

The application of composite indicators to complex phenomena in social science has come to remarkable prominence. As a result, they have been widely applied in wide-ranging fields. This paper explores the application of a composite indicator of technological capabilities that can be also valid for composite indicators in other fields. We focus on whether different methodologies to build composite indicators lead to different results. The arithmetic mean to aggregate technological capabilities variables has been widely criticized, as it allows for perfect substitutability between variables, thus disregarding the complementary nature of technological capabilities. We introduce a new aggregation rule, the concave mean, in order to take into account the complementarity argument in a Science-Technology-Innovation context. Using a dataset for 138 countries, we show that the arithmetic mean is biased in principle but robust in practice. This depends upon the fact that technologically more advanced countries tend to have a more complementary structure in their technological capabilities compared to less developed nations.     

The Increase in College Premium and the Decline in Low‐Skill Wages: A Signaling Story

The increase in the college premium over the last 30 years in the United States is to a large extent driven by a reduction in noncollege wages. We show that the signaling effects triggered by an improvement in the incentives to attend higher education can explain this fact, as well as the increase in the number of college graduates. Under imperfect credit markets and wealth heterogeneity, higher education is not only a signal of ability but also of individuals' (parents') wealth. General conditions on the distribution of wealth guarantee that after an increase in incentives to attend higher education, the absence of a college degree becomes a more evident signal of low ability. This results in a reduction in low‐skill wages but not necessarily in increased high skill wages. The increased incentives to enroll in college can either arise from a skill‐biased technology change or an improvement in access to higher education. An important difference is that while skill‐biased technology change always results in an increase in the college premium, that is not necessarily the case when the increased incentives to enroll arise from improved access to higher education.