基于企业主体的人民币对外负债业务管理思路研究

人民币对外负债业务主要是指我国境内经济主体与境外经济主体之间以人民币签约、结算并计值度量的对外负债。与外币负债相比,人民币对外负债有一定的优势,目前,人民币对外负债业务管理还存在一些问题。本文在分析问题的基础上,提出了基于企业主体的人民币对外负债业务管理思路。     

中国对外投资的特征与环境

中国对外投资的特征预示着巨大的效率损失。中国对外资产面临着越来越大的潜在风险中国对外投资的特征中国在较短的时间内变成了一个越来越重要的对外投资大国。从国际投资头寸表可以看出,近年来,中国对外资产的增长速度超过了对外负债的增长速度,积累了越来越多的对外投资净头寸。从2004年到2010年,中国的对外资     

对外金融资产负债及交易统计与企业会计核算之比较——基于解读《对外金融资产负债及交易统计制度》视角

本文从申报主体与会计主体、交易记录时间确认原则、计值方法、统计范围与核算范围、金融负债与所有者权益、金融资产和负债分类方式和关联关系共七个方面,比较了《对外金融资产负债及交易统计制度》与企业会计准则的异同点,针对统计上与会计上易混淆的相似概念,提出国际收支数据填报及核查时应予以关注的主要问题。     

谁在补贴美国?——美国对外资产负债规模及收益率差异分析

美国在对外净负债的情况下,其海外资产的收入仍超过其因对外债务支付的利息,这也就是不少学者所说的超级特权。通过对比美国与主要投资对象的资产负债头寸和收益率数据,我们发现亚洲出口大国和地区性金融中心为美国提供了资本补贴——既给美国提供大量廉价资本,又为美国在本地的投资提供高额回报。     

美国国际投资头寸的规模与结构变迁

20世纪80年代以来,美国的对外债权和对外债务相对快速增长,由于对外债务的增速快于对外债权的增速,形成了庞大的美国国际投资净债务头寸,美国已经由一个对外净债权国演变成一个对外净债务国,而且对外净债务还在急速膨胀。美国政府部门对外净债务是美国对外净债务头寸的主要构成部分,外国政府部门则持有大部分对美国的净债券,正是庞大的美国政府财政赤字造成了美国的对外净债务,也正是外国政府部门持有的外汇储备支撑了美国政府的财政赤字。     

美国货币政策溢出效应、中国资产价格波动与资本账户管理

本文以2016年美国加息事件为背景,研究美国货币政策对中国资本流动、资产价格和宏观经济的影响。基于小国开放动态随机一般均衡模型,本文梳理了美国货币政策溢出效应的具体传导渠道,发现国外利率升高后,资本流动具有外部性,导致国内资产价格下跌,其通过金融加速器进一步使国内投资下降、资产价格进一步下跌,从而使得国内资产预期回报进一步下降,加剧资本外流。基于政策和福利分析,本文发现资本账户管理可以有效缓解国外利率冲击对经济波动的影响,同时会提高货币政策的独立性,但也会影响国民财富的最优配置。因此,最优的资本账户管理应同时兼顾宏观审慎和效率两个方面。     

The attributes,behavior, and performance of U.S. mutual funds

This article examines the risk and return characteristics of U.S. mutual funds. We employ an equilibrium version of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) and a principal-components-based statistical technique to identify performance benchmarks. We also consider the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) as an alternative. We implement a procedure for overcoming the rotational indeterminacy of factor models. This procedure is a hybrid of statistical factor estimation and prespecification of factors. We estimate measures of timing ability for the CAPM and extend it to the APT. We find that this timing test is misspecified due to noninformation-based changes in mutual fund betas. We develop a modification of the timing measure that, under certain conditions, distinguishes true timing ability from noninformation-based beta changes.     

Individual investors’ attitudes towards listing requirements for foreign entities on U.S. stock exchanges and the promulgation of international accounting standards

The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) currently requires foreign issuers of securities listed on U.S. securities exchanges to either employ U.S. generally accepted accounting principles (U.S. GAAP) or include a statement of reconciliation to U.S. GAAP if they use their home country's accounting standards. With some exceptions, they are also required to comply with the provisions of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 (SOA). John Thain, CEO of the New York Stock Exchange, states that these requirements hamper U.S. investments, economic growth, and employment opportunities. The Chairman of the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB), Sir David Tweedie, echoed Thain's comments. An important stakeholder who is affected significantly by the U.S. listing requirements is the U.S. individual investor. Accordingly this study examines their attitudes involving the extant rules for foreign listings on U.S. exchanges and other aspects of the issue. The study also examines their perceptions regarding accounting standard promulgation authority and the use of a global set of accounting principles. The results indicate that although U.S. investors are very much in favor of the listing of foreign companies on U.S. exchanges, they also endorse the current rule requiring either employment of U.S. GAAP or reconciliation to it as well as mandatory adherence to the SOA. In the area of accounting standards, although a large majority believed that the U.S. should control the accounting standards for U.S. listings, a smaller majority also believed that there should be a universal set of accounting principles for all stock exchanges.     

战后美国经济周期再考察

二战后美国经济周期波动发生显著变化。相比二战之前,美国经济周期扩张期拉长,衰退期缩短,二者之间形成剪刀差。经济周期长度、扩张期跨度和紧缩期跨度的离散度远远大于战前。二战后至今,美国经济中周期出现(朱格拉周期)呈拉长的趋势,扩张期远远长于衰退期,中周期(朱格拉周期)和短周期(基钦周期)的波幅经历了从小到大的阶段性变化。     

寻求平衡:数字科技与美国版权法

由于美国版权法在数字时代发生很大变化,这就又引起美国版权学者的重视,主要这是由于数字科技快速发展而导致.本文试图从数字科技发展角度作为研究视角,结合数字时代美国版权法的变化,从而分析美国版权法与数字科技之间是如何寻求平衡.得出维护作者的权利是维持数字科技发展与美国版权法之间平衡的关键.     

美国联邦政府财务报告编制与审计研究

上世纪90年代开始的美国联邦政府财务报告编制与审计改革是联邦政府加强财务管理的一项重要内容。经过多次改革,形成了以权责发生制为主要会计计量基础的联邦政府财务报告体系,和以审计署的外部审计与监察长办公室的内部审计相结合的联邦政府财务报告审计模式。当前这种财务报告体系与审计模式仍处于发展与完善过程中,需不断改进财务信息质量和强化审计的作用。     

U.S. monetary policy indicators and international stock returns: 1970-2001

It is documented in the literature that U.S. and many international stock returns series are sensitive to U.S. monetary policy. Using monthly data, this empirical study examines the short-term sensitivity of six international stock indices (the Standard & Poor 500 [S&P] Stock Index, the Morgan Stanley Capital International [MSCI] European Stock Index, the MSCI Pacific Stock Index, and three MSCI country stock indices: Germany, Japan, and the United Kingdom) to two major groups of U.S. monetary policy indicators. These two groups, which have been suggested by recent research to influence stock returns, are based on the U.S. discount rate and the federal funds rate. The first group focuses on two binary variables designed to indicate the stance in monetary policy. The second group of monetary indicators involves the federal funds rate and includes the average federal funds rate, the change in the federal funds rate, and the spread of the federal funds rate to 10-year Treasury note yield. Dividing the sample period (1970-2001) into three monetary operating regimes, we find that not all policy indicators influence international stock returns during all U.S. monetary operating periods or regimes. Our results imply that the operating procedure and/or target vehicle used by the Federal Reserve Board (Fed) influences the efficacy of the policy indicator. We suggest caution in using any monetary policy variable to explain and possibly forecast U.S. and international stock returns in all monetary conditions.     

探析中美贸易逆差的原因及影响

近年来,随着中美经贸关系的日益紧密,分析不断扩大的美中贸易逆差具有十分重要的意义。本文主要研究了美中贸易逆差的原因和影响,结构安排如下：首先交代了研究背景,通过一些数据介绍了美中贸易逆差的现状,批出研究此问题的必要性。第二部分,分别采用国际收支平衡原理和要素禀赋定理两种方法进行分析,得出美国的国内政策是造成美国经济项目赤字的主要原因的结论,同进批出了一些流行说法的纰漏之处。可以看到,在全球储蓄结构巨大失衡情况下,单单通过削减美国财政赤字或通过人民币升值,都不有解决巨额美中贸易逆差。这一问题的解决需要中美双方的政策协调。     

中国高额持有美国国债的风险与对策

美国国债曾是公认的最安全的投资品。2001年以来,中国持有的美国国债随外汇储备的快速增长而增加;美国国债规模也随美国"双赤字"的扩大而膨胀。美国的政治生态及美元的霸权特性使得美国的"双赤字"难于控制,美国国债的潜在风险日益显现。中国主要面临退出困难及债权资产实际价值可能大幅缩水的困扰。建议中国利用最大债主的地位制约美国以维护自身权益;同时控制外汇储备增量优化外汇储备结构以掌握风险控制的主动权。