THE AUTUMN STATEMENT

The short-term prospects for output are weaker than our October forecast suggested - manufacturing output fell 1.8per cent in the third quarter and the CBI survey indicates a sharp decline in business confidence. This is reflected in the Treasury's Autumn Statement forecast of GDP growth this year of only 1 per cent followed by 0.5per cent in 1991. With inflation now passing its peak, there would be a case for lowering interest rates but this is not possible with the pound below DM2.90 - the ill-judged reduction in base rates on ERM entry combined with the challenge to Mrs. Thatcher's leadership has pushed sterling deep into its lower ERM band. The principal unknown in the Autumn Statement forecast is the level of interest rates which, in the Treasury's judgement, will be necessary to keep sterling at or close to DM2.95. The Treasury may envisage only a very modest decline in base rates to 13 per cent next year. This could explain why their forecast is relatively gloomier than ours; alternatively the Treasury's underlying view could simply be more pessimistic. Nevertheless we show that the gap between the two forecasts can be eliminated if we change a limited number of assumptions - notably on interest rates, North Sea oil output, general government consumption and stock-building.     

THE AUTUMN STATEMENT

The Treasury's forecast, published with the Autumn Statement, has been widely heralded as showing a surprisingly cheerful picture for next year as far as both output and inflation are concerned. In fact it is close to the forecast which we produced in October. Here we compare the two forecasts and then consider how our forecast is affected when we adopt the Treasury assumptions on asset sales and the exchange rate. We find that the Treasury is more optimistic than we are on investment and that holding the exchange rate - which is needed to produce the official inflation forecast - requires rather higher interest rates than we assumed in October and this widens the gap between our forecast for GDP and the Treasury's forecast.
We also consider how the government should respond to lower North Sea oil revenues. Taking a permanent income approach, we suggest that the PSBR should be allowed to rise by £2bn on this basis. The same approach, however, suggests that an extra £71/2bn of asset sales should be used to cut the PSBR not taxes. On balance therefore this analysis indicates that next year's PSBR target should be lowered by £1/2bn from the £71/2 bn contained in the 1985 MTFS.     

Economic Outlook 1985- 1989: The London Business School with Gower Publishing: Forecast Release: THE AUTUMN STATEMENT: IF YOU CAN'T BEAT 'EM

In announcing significant increases in public spending in the Autumn Statement, the government has recognised that the scope for further interest rate reductions ahead of the election is virtually nil. It has therefore sought to boost demand, and its own popularity, by a fiscal relaxation. It so doing, it is prepared to risk a PSBR. (excluding privatization) of £27bn, exactly in line with the estimates which we made in June of Labour Party policy. In terms of macroeconomic policy, therefore, the gap between the two parties is virtually closed, while that between Mr. Major's government and that of Mrs. Thatcher is evident. Front this starting point, we argue that honouring Mr. Laniont's pledge on income tax could be at the expense of removing tax relief on mortgage interest payments and that a Labour government which still cherishes higher public spending may be forced into continuing the privatization programme. Under either Party there is a strong political case for tax increases, or for rescinding some of the planned increase in spending, early in the life of the next Parliament in order to bring the economic and political cycles back into synchronisation from which they were disturbed by Mr. Lawson's tax-cutting Budget of 1988.     

成都楼市的“秋”与“旺”

根据国土资源部土地利用司对2003年全国城市地价监测结果看,全国省会城市、直辖市及计划单列市的平均地价最高的是北京,最低的是乌鲁木齐,而成都排在了第五位。由于新的土地政策的出台,所有经营性的土地都要公开交易,从而会形成2004年新增房地产的断档期。与土地价格紧密相关的房屋价格涨幅如何呢?春节过后,国家发改委公布的对包括成都在内的全国35个大中城市房地产市场的调查结果显示,全国平均房价去年全年上涨4.8%,而成都房屋销售价格在第四季度的强力拉动下去年全年上涨2.9%,仍低于全国平均水平,在35个大中城市中居第13位。这对成都来说…     

民族的 世界的

中国是具有五千年传统历史的文明古国,城市规划、建筑设计、景观设计都是传统文化中的重要组成部分,它们反映着古人对老庄哲学和古典美学＂天人合一＂的理想追求,更多体现的是一种诗情画意的意境创造。     

THE FUTURE OF THE NEWS IN THE DIGITAL ERA

Technical developments in the field of journalism and broadcasting are changing the shape of both media. Many of these developments are very welcome. However, there is a danger that the quality of journalism may fall and that part of society may disengage from news coverage. This may require a policy response but not necessarily the continued support of a single state-funded public service broadcaster.     

THE FUTURE OF THE SEABED

Increased commodity prices and improved technology have combined to increase the incentives to exploit natural resources located under the seas. However, an international seabed regime under the auspices of the United Nations presents dangers for free markets, sovereignty and security. Alternative institutional arrangements based on privatisation would produce better outcomes.     

THE AUSTRIANS AND THE CRISIS

The Austrian economists' analysis of the trade cycle and the Great Depression has relevance for the current global economic crisis. Excessive bank lending leads to unsustainable distortions in the economy causing the recession, which government spending can do little to mitigate. The long-run solution is a banking system with a high reserve ratio or competition in currencies.     

THE ECONOMY AFTER THE ELECTION

With the election out of the way and signs of recovery tentatively in place, the Government is likely to take steps to bring the economic and political cycles back into kilter so that it does not have to fight the next election under the handicap of recession. This suggests that its first priority will be to consolidate the progress on inflation with a tight fiscal and monetary stance, deferring until 1993-4 any significant relaxation of policy. Holding the exchange rate close to its present parity will therefore take priority over interest rate cuts which may have to wait on a lead from the Bundesbank. On fiscal policy the aim will be to reduce the budget deficit, which suggests a tough approach to public expenditure in this year's spending round.     

海外采珍

美国 房价又创新高 美国联邦房屋企业监督办公室（oFHEo）房价指数显示，到2005年第二季度末，全美房价年增长率为13．4％。新数据表明，这是自1979年以来房价涨幅最大的四个季度。OFHEO认为，目前没有迹象表明房价已经升到了顶点，而是将继续上升。从消费价格指数看，在过去一年，房价的上涨速度比非住房产品和服务快得多：房价上涨了13．4％，而其他产品和服务只涨了3．1％。     

小中见大 博览天下——首届中国中小企业博览会即将开幕

中国中小企业博览会(以下简称"中博会")组委会于2004年7月8日在北京召开新闻发布会,宣布首届中博会将于2004年10月18日至22日在广东省广州市举办.中博会由国家发展和改革委员会、国家工商行政管理总局、广东省人民政府联合主办,中国中小企业国际合作协会、中国个体劳动者协会、香港贸易发展局、澳门贸易投资促进局协办.