Factors and scenarios affecting a farmer’s grain harvest logistics

This paper explores how changes in Australia’s grain industry supply chains are likely to impact on the nature and profitability of an Australian farmer’s grain harvest logistics. A simulation model is used to show how receival site rationalisation, cheaper on‐farm storage, larger trucks, higher‐yielding crops and new harvest technologies, separately and in combination, affect the nature and profitability of a farmer’s grain harvest logistics. Applying the model to a typical Australian grain farm shows that many of these changes unambiguously advantage the farm business, and often, the combination of these changes increases a farmer’s harvest profits by at least 10 per cent. For many farmers, the task of efficiently designing and managing harvest logistics will be an increasingly difficult yet important series of choices due to the range of storage options, grain pathways, crop portfolios and market opportunities that are arising. A farmer’s decisions about cost‐effective on‐farm storage and transport, and their judicious use, will be a key contributor to additional profit in future years.     

INVESTING IN GRAIN STORAGE FACILITIES UNDER FLUCTUATING PRODUCTION*

Fluctuating annual harvest volumes create a peak load problem in the provision of grain storage capacity. There are a number of technologies for handling and storing grain, ranging from capital intensive to labour intensive methods. Optimal provision of grain storage capacity can therefore be analysed in the framework of the conventional peak load pricing model. An investment model of grain storage is outlined and the optimal technology choices are determined according to simple investment roles. Capacity of the more capital intensive storage types should be only provided if the extra capital cost is justified by the saving in operating costs, which depends on the expected utilisation of storage. Some level of supply failure is justifiable. An examination of grain storage costs in Western Australia revealed that horizontal storage was the best technology for dealing with most grain storage demand at sites where turnover is limited In the receival period. This concurs with the general investment choices in Western Australia. However, there appears to be a high level of overcapacity at many sites, implying that the cost of supply failure is perceived to be greater than the marketable value of the grain.     

ECONOMIES OF THROUGHPUT AND TRANSPORT BOTTLENECKS IN GRAIN DISTRIBUTION SYSTEMS

In this paper, a model is presented which shows the relationship between country grain storage costs and transport bottlenecks that exist in the harvest period. It is shown that transport bottlenecks limit the amount of grain that can be transported from receival points in the peak receival period. This constraint means that the cost of operating country receival points is high because the turnover of storage capacity is limited. However, system costs can be reduced by focusing the peak transport task at sites that are less intensive users of scare transport capacity. This allows more grain to be transported out of the system in the peak period, decreasing the need for costly long term storage at country sites. In the longer term, differences in the intensity of transport use means that optimal levels of investment in storage capacity (relative to grain receivals) will differ between sites. Relatively more storage should be constructed at sites that are intensive users of transport capacity (eg. those sites that are furthest from the port). Less storage capacity is needed at sites that are less intensive users of transport because a large depot-to-port transport task will be concentrated at these sites in the peak period.     

DEREGULATION AND EFFICIENCY IN GRAIN TRANSPORT

In this paper, it is argued that removing restrictions on road transport will not be sufficient to encourage efficiency improvements in grain freight industry while rail authorities continue to operate as public monopolies. This is because of the structure of costs in the grain freight industry, which imply that road transport cannot compete with rail transport in areas where road is the more efficient mode. While the tendency for a regulated monopoly to cross-subsidise inefficient operations is common place, the focus in this analysis is on the nature of the cross-subsidy in the grain freight industry, and shows that it is a type of cross-subsidy that is well hidden by aggregation. A model of investment in a rail network is presented where the monopoly power afforded to the rail industry is shown to be due to economies of traffic density. A case study of the grain rail network in Western Australia is presented where it is shown that the rail authority has been able to maintain very uneconomic sections of rail line, despite the introduction of road competition and apparently competitive pricing practices.     

Policy reform and farmers' wheat allocation in rural China: a case study*

Market‐oriented policy reforms often have important effects on farm‐level grain production and utilisation decisions in developing countries. China's grain farmers are of particular interest because of China's importance in world grain markets and because of China's recent major agricultural policy advances and retrenchments. An empirical evaluation of market liberalisation among farmers located in two provinces in China on farm‐level wheat consumption, market sales and on‐farm storage during 1994 is presented. The results indicate that policymakers should account for such changes in farm household behaviour in designing and assessing the consequence of market liberalisation programs for agricultural sectors in developing countries.     

On the nature and magnitude of cost economies in hog production

In this article, we assess the impact of farm size on production cost and evaluate the marginal costs and margins by considering that input prices may change with the scale of production. By using French hog farm data, we estimate a system of equations including a feed price function, input demand functions, and an output supply function based on a technology approximated by a combined generalized Leontief‐Quadratic form. Our results suggest that the marginal costs are over‐estimated when the adjustment of the feed unit prices to a change in farm size is not controlled for. More specifically, the cost economies for large farms (enjoying the highest profits) arise primarily from lower feed prices, with technological scale economies having little impact. In contrast, farms with no hired labor exhibit technological scale economies and reach higher price‐cost margins compared to larger farms.     

Evaluating the benefits from transport infrastructure in agriculture: a hedonic analysis of farmland prices

Access to transport infrastructure generates a range of benefits to the agriculture sector; many of which are difficult to measure directly. In this study, we use hedonic regression analysis of farm‐level data to examine the contribution of transport infrastructure to the value of farmland traded between 2009 and 2011 through its impact on farm productivity. We show that a one per cent reduction in the cost of transportation between farms and ports leads to a 0.33 per cent increase in land prices, and there is no significant difference between rail and road transportation at the aggregate level. Moreover, the benefits generated by particular types of infrastructure services vary between industries and with farm size, suggesting there are multiple channels through which public infrastructure influences agricultural production. Our findings help to inform future investment decisions in Australia and in other countries by providing new evidence regarding the benefits of existing transport infrastructure.     

Farm Size Growth and Participation in Agri‐environmental Schemes: A Configural Frequency Analysis of the Swiss Case

This paper examines the relationship between farm growth and participation in agri‐environmental schemes, using the example of meadow extensification schemes in Switzerland. As a result of small farm sizes in Swiss agriculture, theory would suggest that economies of scale are considerable for market production activities, so that for growing farms it would be rational to intensify. Configural frequency analysis is used to identify and describe combinations of farm size development and proportion of meadows placed under agri‐environmental schemes. In the Swiss case, growing farms are likely to reduce their participation, whereas shrinking farms have a growing share of their meadows under extensification schemes.     

EFFECT OF ASSEMBLY COSTS ON OPTIMUM GRAIN ELEVATOR SIZE AND LOCATION

This paper considers simultaneously the effect of assembly costs and economies of scale on optimum size and location of grain elevators. When assembly factors (transportation costs and grain sales density) are included, optimum elevator size may be as little as 25 to 50 per cent of the size when in-plant costs only are considered. These results are important to all parts of Canada's grain industry, but especially relevant in view of the importance currently associated with efficient grain assembly and in view of the significance of farmer cooperatives in Canadian grain assembly and storage.
EFFETS DU COUT DE RASSEMBLEMENT RELATIF A LA GRANDEUR OPTIMUM ET LA SITUATION GEOGRAPHIQUE ďELEVATEUR. - ľétude considère simultanément ľeffet du coût de rassemblement et des économies àľéchelle optimum et ľemplacement, des élévateurs. Quand le cout du transport et la concentration de ventes de graines est inclu, la grandeur optimum des élévateurs peut étre réduit de 25 à 50 p. 100 de la grandeur basé sur le coût ďusine seul Ces résultats ont une importance pour ľindustrie des graines dans tout le Canada mais plus spécialement à cause de ľimportance couramment attachéàľefficacité du rassemblement des graines et la position primordiale des coopératives rurales dans la tâche de rassemblement et de ľentreposage des graines.     

Economies of Size in Grain Farming in Saskatchewan and the Potential Impact of Rail Rationalization Proposals

This paper empirically examines the economies of size in both grain production and distribution by farm truck in Saskatchewan by using farm level data, and confirms that economies of size prevail. The examination also shows that economies of size in farm trucking reinforce the economies in production. The policy implication is such that the potential impact of an increase in rail freight rates and branch line abandonment would have a differential impact on individual producer's net income by farm size.
En utilisant les données relev'ees au niveau des fermes, ce document examine d'une façon empirique les exploitations agricoles de la Saskatchewan importantes tant du point de vue de la production céréaliere que de la distribution par camionnage et confirme que ce genre d'exploitations prédomine. L'analyse montre aussi que le camionnage par gros tonnage renforce la production. L'impact potentiel d'une augmentation des tarifs ferroviaires et I'abandon des voies d'embranchement auraient un impact sur le revenu net de chaque producteur variant selon la grandeur de son exploitation.     

Dynamic general equilibrium analysis of improved weed management in Australia's winter cropping systems*

A recent analysis indicated that the direct financial cost of weeds to Australia's winter grain sector was approximately $A1.2bn in 1998–1999. Costs of this magnitude represent a large recurring productivity loss in an agricultural sector that is sufficient to impact significantly on regional economies. Using a multi‐regional dynamic computable general equilibrium model, we simulate the general equilibrium effects of a hypothetical successful campaign to reduce the economic costs of weeds. We assume that an additional $50m of R&D spread over five years is targeted at reducing the additional costs and reduced yields arising from weeds in various broadacre crops. Following this R&D effort, one‐tenth of the losses arising from weeds is temporarily eliminated, with a diminishing benefit in succeeding years. At the national level, there is a welfare increase of $700m in discounted net present value terms. The regions with relatively high concentrations of winter crops experience small temporary macroeconomic gains.     

Adoption of improved chickpea varieties: KRIBHCO experience in tribal region of Gujarat, India

The study aims to track adoption of improved chickpea varieties, and assess their on‐farm benefits in some remote and backward tribal villages in Gujarat, India, where few newly developed varieties were introduced by a non‐government organization. It also determines key factors which were influencing their adoption. The study found that adoption of improved chickpea varieties was gradually increasing by replacing a prominent local variety. Duration of crop maturity, farm size, yield risk, and farmers' experience of growing chickpea crop were significantly influencing their adoption. The on‐farm benefits as a result of improved varieties were realized in terms of increased yield levels, higher income and labor productivity, more marketable surplus, price premium and stabilized yields in fluctuating weather. Breeding short duration varieties with stable yield levels under varying weather, and organizing seed multiplication and dissemination in regions, where moisture stress is a problem during maturity of chickpea, are the major suggestions.     

Traditional farm expansion versus joint venture remote partnerships

Traditionally, farms expand by buying out a neighbour. But might remote partnerships be a better way of expanding a farm business given projected climate change and price volatility? This question is addressed using farm business financial modelling. Representative farms at 27 locations in Western Australia are constructed to enable comparison of the value of buying out a neighbour versus expansion using geographically distant joint venture (JV) partners. The farm models consider economies of size, bulk purchase price discounts, the variability and correlation of returns associated with farm expansion, and impacts of climate change. Random selection of a remote partner generates little improvement in wealth; on average only 2.3 and 1.6 per cent, respectively, under current and projected future climate across all locations. However, there is large variation in wealth appreciation opportunities for each location and between locations. Preferred partnerships are a function of each farm's characteristics. Locations highly preferred as JV partners under current climate are similarly preferred partners under projected future climate. The main sources of additional wealth come from economies of size advantages, risk‐spreading benefits of combining geographically separated farms and bulk discounts. Farmers seeking business expansion will often benefit greatly from careful selection of a remote partner.     

How would global trade liberalization affect rural and regional incomes in Australia?

Agricultural protection in rich countries, which had depressed Australian farm incomes via its impact on Australia’s terms of trade, has diminished over the past two decades. So too has agricultural export taxation in poor countries, which has had the opposite impact on those terms of trade. Meanwhile, however, import protection for developing country farmers has been steadily growing. To what extent are Australian farmers and rural regions still adversely affected by farm and non‐farm price‐ and trade‐distortive policies abroad? This paper draws on new estimates of the current extent of those domestic and foreign distortions: first, to model their net impact on Australia’s terms of trade (using the World Bank’s Linkage model of the global economy); and second, to model the effects of that terms of trade impact on output and real incomes in rural versus urban and other regions and households within Australia as of 2004 (using Monash’s multi‐regional TERM model of the Australian economy).     

CENTRALIZED PRAIRIE GRAIN COLLECTION: SAVINGS RELATED TO MARKET EFFICIENCY

A great deal of controversy and debate has arisen as to how many grain delivery points should be maintained to serve the grain growing areas of the Prairies. Many proponents for a change in the system have opted for a need for centralization. In this study, changes in the grain collection system are analyzed for a small region of Saskatchewan using a total of farmers' trucking and storage costs, road costs, elevators' and railways' costs. A modified Stollsteimer model was used to determine the effect on systems cost (sum of the five costs) as the number of grain collection points changed. Centralization of the system tended to reallocate costs from elevator and rail, to farm storage, trucking and road components. Elevator efficiency, to a major extent, determined the number of delivery points required. For the existing system (in 1974) the optimum number of points were estimated to be 80 (of a total of 178). For various alternatives examined, the optimum number varied between 46 to 107, under the existence of the Crowsnest Freight rates. The study suggests that a highly centralized system, (such as that consisting of up to five points for the study area, equivalent to 25 for the province) would increase the total costs of grain handlings and transportation. II y a eu beaucoup d'opinions et de discussions au sujet des centres de livraison de grains qui devraient etre maintenus en service dans les régions de cultures de grains des “Prairies”. Beaucoup de gens favorables à un changement du système sont partisans de la nécéssité d'une centralisation. Dans cette étude, les changements dans le système de collecte des grains sont analysés pour une petite partie du Saskatchewan en utilisant les coûts de transport et de stockage payés par les fermiers, les coûts de transport par chemin de fer et par route, ainsi que les coûts des élévateurs. Un modèle “Stollsteimer” modifyé a été utilisé afin de déterminer les effets sur le système de coûts, lorsque le nombre de centres de livraison de grains variait. Une centralisation du système tend à redistribuer les coûts des élévateurs et des transports par chemin de fer vers les. trois autres composantes (stockage et transport payés par les fermiers et le coût de transport routier). II est clair que l'efficacité des élévateurs, en majeure partie, détermine le nombre des centres de livraison requis. Pour le système existant en 1974, le nombre optimal de centres était estimé a 80 (sur un total de 178). En fonction de la prise en considération de plusieurs variantes et en utilisant le système des prix “Crowsnest Freight rates”, le nombre optimal variait de 46 à 107. l'étude suggère qu'un système hautement centralisé (équivalent à un maximum de cinq centres pour la région étudiée et a vingt-cinq centres pour toute la province) augmenterait le coût total de transport et de maniement des grains.     

Institutional innovation and policy support to facilitate small‐scale farming transformation in China

While the Asian food economy has been experiencing significant transitions, it is widely believed that little transformation has occurred in farm land operation. However, the recent rapid emergence of middle and large‐size farms in many regions of China is striking, as is the increase in size of operational units. The overall goal of this article is to understand small‐scale farm transformation in China based on a unique dataset surveyed in Northeast and North China. The results show that the institutional innovation through establishing land transfer service centers to promote land rental markets and reduce transaction costs, policy support to speed up land consolidation, and farm mechanization services are major driving forces in the recent evolution of China's farm operations. The article concludes with policy implications on small‐scale farming transformation in China and the rest of world and identifies research issues for further study.     

Farm machinery use,off‐farm employment and farm performance in China

We analyse the joint impacts of farm machinery use and off‐farm employment on maize yields and agrochemical expenses from a household survey of 493 farmers in China. Our findings are obtained from an innovative two‐stage econometric procedure that combines a bivariate ordered probit model with an endogeneity‐corrected ordinary least square regression model. The results show that farmers are jointly making decisions to use farm machines and to work off the farm and that these two household activities affect maize yields and agrochemical expenses in different ways. We show that farm machinery use significantly increases both maize yields and agrochemical expenses, while off‐farm employment significantly decreases agrochemical expenses. Our findings highlight the importance of additional machinery use in increasing farm production; the need to account for possible endogeneity in estimation; and the statistical significance of key household characteristics (gender, education, and household size) on overall farm production.     

The costs and benefits of land fragmentation of rice farms in Japan*

Land fragmentation, in which a farm operates multiple, separate plots of land, is a common phenomenon in Japan and many other countries. Usually, land fragmentation is regarded as a harmful phenomenon as it increases production costs and reduces the advantages of scale economies. However, it is also known that fragmentation may have beneficial effects in reducing risk through spatial dispersion of plots. Thus, land fragmentation has both costs and benefits, and whether it is beneficial or harmful is determined by the magnitude of these costs and benefits. This article investigates the costs and benefits of land fragmentation empirically using panel data from Japanese rice farms. The empirical results reveal that fragmentation increases production costs and offsets economies of size, and these impacts strengthen as farm size increases. Moreover, although fragmentation does reduce production risk, its monetary value is far below the cost of land fragmentation. From these findings, we conclude that land fragmentation is an impediment to efficient rice production in Japan.     

Trends in China's regional grain production and their implications

The paper examines the growth of China's regional grain production during the reform period. Impacts of regional trends on China's interregional grain transfers and international trade are tackled. It linds that there are significant variations between regions in terms of magnitudes and patterns of growth. Northern regions experienced a faster growth than southern regions. There is a tendency to shift grain production centres towards north, leading to a modification of crop composition in total national output, a reversal of the prevailing direction of interregional transfers and a change in contents of grain flows. The study argues that this shift is an inevitable resulf of the uneven progress of reforms and economic development and, consequently, the varying opportunity costs of grain production in different regions. The analysis suggests that for China as a whole, further growth of grain output has been impeded by the lack ot new technologies and increasingly high opportunity costs of grain production. In the northeast region where the potential for increasing maize output is relatively high, production has been constrained by the shortage of transport and storage facilities as well as policy obstacles. The study concludes that there is a necessity for China to decentralize its grain international trade. In doing so, the imports of grain in the south will increase, and so will the exports of maize in the north.     

Tactical responses to seasonal conditions in whole-farm planning in Western Australia

In dryland agricultural systems, efficient farm management requires a degree of flexibility according to variations in climate from year to year. Tactical adjustments to the mix of farm enterprises can capitalize on good growing conditions and minimise losses under poor growing conditions. In this paper, a discrete stochastic programming model of dryland wheat-sheep farms in Western Australia is used to identify optimal tactical adjustments to climate and to calculate the value of these tactical adjustments. The model, MUDAS, includes nine discrete season types with a wide range of options for tactical adjustments in each. In the standard model, optimal tactical responses increase expected net cash surplus by approximately 22% relative to a fixed or inflexible strategy. In most season types, changes to the long term farm strategy are made on less than 10% of the farm area, although in some seasons over 25% of the farm can require adjustments to the enterprise selected. The benefits of flexibility are not evenly distributed across different season types but occur predominantly in the best and worst seasons. The magnitude of benefits is affected differently by different commodity prices. Benefits of flexibility are due to capitalizing on knowledge about the greater volatility of profits from cropping than from livestock production. Deterministic models and even stochastic models which don't include activities for tactical adjustments miss this key feature of the system.