How limiting is finance for Dutch dairy farms? A dynamic profit analysis

Accessibility to financial resources is considered a prevalent problem in the agricultural sector. We develop an approach to quantify the long-term opportunity costs of financial constraints in relation to peers who do not face any financial constraints. Using data on past financial performance, we assess creditworthiness and the size of an additional accessible bank loan to farmers. Combining this with data on reported expenditure, we determine the accessible finance. We quantify the opportunity cost as the forgone dynamic profit (intertemporal profit in current-value terms) from financial constraints. Using data envelopment analysis, we apply our approach to 264 specialised Dutch dairy farms for the years 2006–2017 and explore the potential impact of changes in finance provision for several scenarios. Our results show an increasing gap between frontrunners and other farmers, as the latter generate progressively less dynamic profit in comparison to their best peers. The gap between the dynamic profit of the average farm and that of its best peers from their production and investment decisions made over the span of 1 year grew from €40,040 in 2009 to €114,548 in 2017. However, the growth is not driven by insufficient access to finance. Financial constraints can only explain 6% of the forgone dynamic profit in 2009 and as little as 1% for 2017. The number of farms classified as financially constrained in comparison to their peers decreases in our sample from 44% in 2009 to 8% in 2017. This suggests that non-financial factors are driving the growing gap.     

Adaptation and Climate Change Impacts: A Structural Ricardian Analysis of Farm Types in Germany

Based on farm census data, we explore the climate‐dependent incidence of six farm types and the climate‐induced impacts on land rental prices in Germany. We apply a structural Ricardian approach by modeling the dominant farm type at 9,684 communities as depending on temperature, precipitation and other geographic variables. Rents per farm type are then modeled as depending on climate and other conditioning variables. These results allow the projection of the consequences of climate change as changes in our climate variables. Our results indicate that permanent‐crop farms are more likely to dominate in higher temperatures, whereas forage or mixed farms dominate in areas of higher precipitation levels. Land rental prices display a concave response to increases in annual precipitation, and appear to increase linearly with rising annual temperature. Moderate‐warming simulation results for future decades benefit most farm types but seem to penalise forage farms. Rental prices are projected to increase, ceteris paribus, for all farm types.     

Droughts and farms’ financial performance: a farm‐level study in New Zealand

We quantify the impacts of droughts in New Zealand on the profitability of dairy, sheep and beef farms using a comprehensive administrative database of all farms in New Zealand. For dairy farms, we found that drought events have positive impacts on dairy farms’ revenue and profit in the year of the drought. This effect is most likely attributable to drought‐induced increases in the export price of milk solids, as New Zealand is the market maker in this global market and almost all domestic dairy production is exported. All of these quantified impacts, however, are not very large, suggesting that, at this point in time, droughts have a fairly moderate impact on New Zealand dairy and sheep–beef businesses.     

Farm Type Effects of an EU‐wide Direct Payment Harmonisation

In this study, we analyse how three scenarios involving different levels of harmonisation of common agricultural policy (CAP) decoupled payments in the EU affect the distribution of farm income across regions and farm types. We use the farm type extension of the common agricultural policy impact (CAPRI) model, which captures farm heterogeneity across the EU. The first scenario (NUTS1) assumes uniform per‐hectare payments at the NUTS1 level. The second scenario (MS‐CONV) equalises the per‐hectare rates inside each Member State (MS) and partially harmonises the single payment scheme (SPS) across MS in line with the 2011 Commission proposal. The third scenario simulates a uniform per‐hectare payment at the EU level. Depending on the implementation of the SPS, the NUTS1 flat rate induces a substantial redistribution of payments across farm types and NUTS2 regions, particularly in regions that apply the historical SPS. The MS‐CONV and EU flat‐rate schemes have more significant impacts at the EU‐wide level. In the EU‐15, almost all farms lose payments from MS‐CONV and EU‐wide flat rates, whereas in the EU‐10, almost all farm types gain from these scenarios. Our conservative estimates indicate that the flat‐rate payments could redistribute up to €8.5 billion. Lower land rental costs partially offset the losses of farm income in the EU‐15 from payment redistribution. Land rents drop for all flat‐rate scenarios across most sectors and farm sizes in the EU‐15. In the less productive new MS, the landowners’ rental income is largely unaffected by the introduction of the flat rate.     

我国家庭农场发展的现状、问题及培育建议——基于农业部专项调查343万个样本数据

[目的]家庭农场作为一种新型农业经营主体,近年来受到国家的大力支持。对其发展情况进行调查分析有助于发现其存在问题,尽早提出解决措施,优化家庭农场的发展和培育。[方法]文章以农业部家庭农场专项调查数据为基础,从经营数量、经营规模、经营类型、经营效益4个方面,对家庭农场的发展现状进行了分析。[结果]家庭农场发展迅速,且增长速度逐年加快;目前已基本实现规模经营,其中70%的土地来自土地流转;农场数量和规模南北差异较大;经营类型以种植业为主,占六成以上;家庭农场的年销售产值高,但净利润低。除此之外,由于处在探索发展阶段,我国家庭农场在发展过程中面临着生产成本过高、质量认证缺乏和资金支持少等问题。[结论]最后针对这些问题,从加大政策扶持力度、加快农产品品牌建设和加强金融支持3方面提出对策建议,以期为未来家庭农场的培育提供参考价值。     

Impact of farm management diversity on the environmental and economic performance of the wheat–maize cropping system in the North China Plain

To assess the attainable greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation potential from crop production in China's most important grain production region, the North China Plain (NCP), single farm environmental and economic performances of 65 winter wheat–summer maize (WW–SM) producing households were determined. The results revealed a huge heterogeneity among farms, with up to five times higher environmental impact of worst compared to best performing farms. Astonishingly no trade-off between productivity and sustainability could be identified in the region, with high-yield farms emitting no different amounts of GHGs per hectare compared to low-yield farms. Building on cluster analysis, with farms grouped according to their economic and environmental performance into ‘poor’, ‘fair' and ‘good’ producers, the regional GHG mitigation potential was estimated. Under the scenario assumption that all grain in the NCP is produced under ‘good’ production conditions, 21% and 7% of GHG could be mitigated in wheat and maize production, respectively. The study shows that in the NCP, exemplary for China's rapidly developing agricultural sector, the crop management skills of a substantial share of farmers could obviously not keep pace with the massive input intensification. Among others, farmer–farmer trainings are recommended to close the gap in crop production performance among producers.     

农业产业化联合体实现机制及其决定因素——基于家庭农场调查数据的实证分析

[目的]农业产业化联合体是我国乡村产业融合发展的高级形态,对农业现代化起关键作用。探究家庭农场对联合体的满意情况及其影响因素,对于联合体的持续稳定发展有重要的现实意义。[方法]文章利用2020年对安徽合肥、亳州、六安和宿州等9个地市的农业产业化联合体调查数据,分析了安徽省各地区、各生产类型的家庭农场对农业产业化联合体满意情况,并对满意度影响因素采用多分类有序Logistic回归模型进行了实证分析。[结果]各地区的家庭农场对联合体的满意情况存在一定差异,但不同类型的家庭农场满意差距不大。家庭农场满意度受到结构因素的影响,其中种养规模、共同目标制定、沟通程度对满意度产生正向影响,而文化程度与机会主义行为对满意度产生了负向影响。过程因素中的合同履行与监督制度对满意度产生正向影响,结果因素中体现经济与社会效益的利润率增长和劳动力带动对满意度有正向影响。[结论]积极扩大家庭农场的生产规模、完善联合体的监督管理制度、加强利益联结等措施是实现农业产业化联合体可持续发展的关键。     

The impact of drought and water scarcity on irrigator farm exit intentions in the Murray–Darling Basin

Drought and future water scarcity in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) will continue to restructure the irrigation industry in the coming decades. There has been little work conducted in Australia that has modelled farm exit or exit intention. ABARES farm survey data were used to model irrigators’ farm exit intentions across the southern MDB from 2006 to 2013. In particular, we examined the hypotheses that drought and water scarcity positively impacted on farm exit intentions and that it is the poorest performing farms that intend to exit in times of drought. Results revealed that water scarcity impacts varied considerably. There was only weak evidence to suggest that irrigators’ exit intentions were higher in times of drought, but there was stronger evidence to support the influence of a lagged water scarcity impact on farm exit intentions during periods of nondrought (e.g. intending to exit at times when the property market was less depressed). There was also strong evidence that poorer performing farms (measured by rates of return and higher debt over a certain level) were more likely to have exit intentions in drought periods, but not necessarily so in nondrought periods. Older age is the most consistent predictor of farm exit intentions across all industries, though it was most significant in drought periods.     

How training and innovation link to farm performance: a structural equation analysis

The complexity of modern farm management places great demands on the skill, knowledge and capability of farm managers and their families. Keeping abreast of emerging technologies and innovations that can affect each key farm enterprise, and knowing how best to marshal the resources required for profitable farm production, are key tasks of farm management. This study draws on a longitudinal data set of 240 broadacre farmers to compare and analyse their farm performance over a decade. Using structural equation modelling, we examine relationships between the farm family's involvement in training, their human capital, their use of various innovations and ultimately the linkages of these factors to farm financial and productivity performance. Several statistically significant inter‐relationships are found, and some factors are shown to have significant positive links to farm performance. We find that training undertaken by the farm family, the farm family's human capital and their use of innovations, particularly key cropping innovations, have significant beneficial impacts on farm performance. The farmer's skills in time and organisational management, their engagement in business planning and the unique environmental characteristics of the farm also significantly and positively influence farm performance.     

Calculating environmental cost indicators of apple farm practices indicates large differences between growers

This study evaluates the environmental impact of current apple cultivation practices in Flanders, Belgium. It evaluates integrated production, the most common practice, and it compares this production method with conventional and organic production. The assessment was based on Farm Accountancy Data Network data from 2010 to 2012 for 64 farms in the region and a life cycle approach was used. The findings showed no significant improvement in environmental impacts for integrated farms compared to conventional farms and, even more, the former showed significantly higher average impacts per hectare for the categories ‘acidification’, and ‘non-renewable energy use’ in comparison with the latter. The organic production group showed higher average impacts per kilogram due to lower yields. Secondly, impacts related to the categories ‘acidification’, ‘eutrophication’ and ‘global warming potential’ were monetized based on the shadow price method in order to obtain external costs. Results show that external costs increase the production costs for integrated farming at least with 5%, both when these costs are expressed per kilogram and per hectare. However, the findings show a large variability in impacts and costs per farm. Farm-specific practices have therefore an important influence on the total environmental cost rather than production group-specific practices.     

Adaptive responses to landscape changes from onshore wind energy development in the Republic of Ireland

Covering 26 years of Irish onshore wind energy development, this article tracks patterns in landscape changes from wind farm construction and identifies adaptive responses in public policy and by stakeholder groups. Wind farms face well-documented challenges with social acceptance due to landscape changes; however, little research has examined interactions between landscape change and social adaptations over the long-term. This article systematically reviews 20 policy documents, undertakes spatio-temporal linear modeling of 212 wind farms using 9 landscape change metrics, and analyzes 5 stakeholder group interviews on adaptive responses to landscape changes. Upward trends occur in turbine height, impact accumulation, placement in agricultural landscapes, construction delays, and new farms built per year. Downward trends occur in the number of turbines per farm, visual disruption of protected areas, and placement in wetlands. Key patterns in stakeholder groups’ adaptations include conflicting interpretations of landscape amenities and evolution, and expanded community outreach, networking, and public participation after exposure to infrastructure. Stakeholders adapt to existing infrastructure separately from adapting strategies to respond to new wind farms. Overall, a mutual relationship emerges wherein landscape changes from wind farms respond to policies and stakeholder activities, while policies and stakeholder groups adapt to the physical realities of landscape change.     

Vertical coordination and farm performance: evidence from the catfish sector in Vietnam

Using an original dataset from the Vietnamese catfish sector, I analyze the impact of vertical coordination options, namely, contract farming and vertical integration, on farm performance, which is measured in terms of yields and revenue per hectare. The effects of vertical coordination are estimated using a maximum simulated likelihood estimator and a two‐stage least square regression with instrumental variables to account for endogenous farm and household characteristics and selection on unobservable characteristics. The results show that vertically integrated farms have substantially higher yields and revenue per hectare than nonintegrated farms. The levels of gains that can be attributed to integration are large and consistent under different estimation procedures, and there is no difference between nonintegrated and contract farms in terms of farm performance.     

Africa's changing farm size distribution patterns: the rise of medium‐scale farms

This study assesses changes over the past decade in the farm size distributions of Ghana, Kenya, Tanzania, and Zambia, drawing on two or more waves of nationally representative population‐based and/or area‐based surveys. Analysis indicates that much of Sub‐Saharan Africa is experiencing major changes in farm land ownership patterns. Among all farms below 100 hectares in size, the share of land on small‐scale holdings under five hectares has declined except in Kenya. Medium‐scale farms (defined here as farm holdings between 5 and 100 hectares) account for a rising share of total farmland, especially in the 10–100 hectare range where the number of these farms is growing especially rapidly. Medium‐scale farms control roughly 20% of total farmland in Kenya, 32% in Ghana, 39% in Tanzania, and over 50% in Zambia. The numbers of such farms are also growing very rapidly, except in Kenya. We also conducted detailed life history surveys of medium‐scale farmers in each of these four countries and found that the rapid rise of medium‐scale holdings in most cases reflects increased interest in land by urban‐based professionals or influential rural people. About half of these farmers obtained their land later in life, financed by nonfarm income. The rise of medium‐scale farms is affecting the region in diverse ways that are difficult to generalize. Many such farms are a source of dynamism, technical change, and commercialization of African agriculture. However, medium‐scale land acquisitions may exacerbate land scarcity in rural areas and constrain the rate of growth in the number of small‐scale farm holdings. Medium‐scale farmers tend to dominate farm lobby groups and influence agricultural policies and public expenditures to agriculture in their favor. Nationally representative Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data from six countries (Ghana, Kenya, Malawi, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Zambia) show that urban households own 5–35% of total agricultural land and that this share is rising in all countries where DHS surveys were repeated. This suggests a new and hitherto unrecognized channel by which medium‐scale farmers may be altering the strength and location of agricultural growth and employment multipliers between rural and urban areas. Given current trends, medium‐scale farms are likely to soon become the dominant scale of farming in many African countries.     

我国家庭农场发展现状及其对策研究

家庭农场是在我国农村现有基础上建立的,是新型的农业生产主体,是实行农业现代化的金钥匙。家庭农场的出现,既增加农民的收入,又可以实现农业生产的产业化。文章运用文献分析和实地调研相结合的研究方法,分析了当前我国家庭农场的发展现状,即我国家庭农场呈现出经营规模不同、经营品种不同、经营效益较好、具有市场竞争力等明显特征。家庭农场的发展面临大好机遇,但是也存在土地产权认识不明晰、资金短缺、劳动力缺乏等瓶颈问题。并提出明确家庭农场认定标准、引导土地向家庭农场流转、农民的技术培训、完善农业保险、政府给予一定的资金政策等建议,旨在为各地区制定发展家庭农场政策提供参考。     

Strategies to increase agricultural productivity and reduce land degradation: evidence from Uganda

This paper estimates a structural econometric model of household decisions regarding income strategies, participation in programs and organisations, crop choices, land management, and labour use, and their implications for agricultural production and soil erosion; based upon a survey of over 450 households and their farm plots in Uganda. Many factors have context-specific impacts and involve trade-offs between increasing production and reducing land degradation. Government agricultural extension and training programs contribute to higher value of crop production in the lowlands, but to soil erosion in the highlands. By contrast, non-governmental organization (NGO) programs focusing on agriculture and environment help to reduce erosion, but have less favourable impacts on production in the lowlands. Education increases household incomes, but also reduces crop production in the lowlands. Poverty has mixed impacts on agricultural production, depending on the nature of poverty: smaller farms obtain higher crop production per hectare, while households with fewer livestock have lower crop production. Population pressure contributes to agricultural intensification, but also to erosion in the densely populated highlands. Several household income strategies contribute to increased value of crop production, without significant impacts on soil erosion. We find little evidence of impact of access to markets, roads and credit, land tenure or title on agricultural intensification and crop production and land degradation. In general, the results imply that the strategies to increase agricultural production and reduce land degradation must be location-specific, and that there are few 'win-win' opportunities to simultaneously increase production and reduce land degradation.     

EU‐wide Economic and Environmental Impacts of CAP Greening with High Spatial and Farm‐type Detail

In this paper we analyse the economic and environmental impacts of CAP greening introduced by the 2013 CAP reform using the CAPRI model. CAPRI captures the farm heterogeneity across the EU and it allows to depict the implementation of the greening measures in high detail while integrating the environmental effects and the market feedback of the simulated policy changes. The simulated results reveal that the economic impacts (land use, production, price and income) of CAP greening are rather small, although some farm types, crops (fallow land and pulses) and Member States may be affected more significantly. The CAP greening will lead simultaneously to a small increase in prices and a small decrease in production. Farm income slightly increases because the price effects offset the production decline. Similarly to economic effects, the environmental impacts (GHG emissions, N surplus, ammonia emissions, soil erosion, and biodiversity‐friendly farming practices) of CAP greening are small, although some regions may see greater effects than others. In general, the environmental effects at EU level are positive on a per hectare basis, but the increase in UAA can reverse the sign for total impacts. Overall, simulated GHG and ammonia emissions decrease in the EU, while the total N surplus, soil erosion and biodiversity‐friendly farming practices indicator slightly increase due to the CAP greening.     

Strategies of disadvantaged mountain dairy farmers as indicators of agricultural structural change: A case study of Murau,Austria

The decline in the number of farms, seen as one of the main dimensions of agricultural structural change, is presumed to predominantly take place in areas with farming difficulties, such as the disadvantaged European Alpine mountain regions. Especially regarding dairy farms, facing profound changes due to pending EU policy reforms, many questions remain unanswered concerning structural change patterns. This paper presents a follow-up qualitative study that for the first time visualizes a pattern of farm household strategies among Austrian dairy farmers in a specific particularly disadvantaged mountain region. The pattern contains disengaging farms, professionalizing farms, and three differing types of stable reproduction farms. The examination shows that this revealed typology provides a suitable framework for the ex ante indication of agricultural structural change.     

Policy drivers of farm succession and inheritance

Farm succession and inheritance is increasingly considered a complex phenomenon which not only affects core dimensions of farm family life but also the agricultural sector more widely. Intergenerational farm transfer in particular is increasingly viewed as fundamental to the sustainability and development of global agriculture. In the majority of EU countries, the average age of farmers is increasing, while the number of farmers under 40 years of age is decreasing. There is growing concern that this demographic trend may have negative impacts on the agricultural industry because it is younger and not older farmers who are associated with more efficient and effective production practices. The question of what motivates decisions to transfer farms is a complex one, and research to date has not apparently enlightened agricultural policy to the extent that current trends towards an ageing farm population are being managed. This research aims to investigate economic and financial aspects of the policy drivers of farm succession and inheritance in Ireland to understand what it is about the policy environment that is failing to stimulate higher levels of farm transfer. It draws on the Teagasc National Farm Survey data which provides Irish data to the Farm Accountancy Data Network in the European Commission. A hypothetical microsimulation model is used to investigate economic factors of farm transfers, with scenarios created to test these factors and their impacts on the transfer process. The Net Present Value (NPV) of income streams for farmers and their successors are calculated to assess which scenarios have the highest/lowest financial effects. The findings illustrate a range of possible scenarios for farm succession/inheritance, with some results indicating that under current policy retaining a farm until death may be more economically beneficial to a farmer than transferring land before death.     

Survey and Analysis of Labour on Organic Farms in the UK and Republic of Ireland

A survey of 1144 organic farms in the UK and Republic of Ireland (IE) was used to assess whether organic agriculture provides more labour than conventional (nonorganic) farming. The sampled farms comprised 23% of all organic farms. The jobs per farm and per area varied greatly with enterprise type and farm size, and between regions. Comparison of the survey with national statistics showed that organic farms employ 135% more FTE (full time equivalent jobs) per farm than conventional farms. The mean jobs per area was markedly lower for organic farms (1.35 compared to 2.43 FTE per 100 ha), because they are larger (216 ha compared to 51 ha). Even when corrected for the different size distribution, organic farms had more jobs per farm than the national averages (2.52 and 1.49 FTE for the UK and IE, compared to 1.28 and 1.16 FTE). The farm size weighted FTE per area for organic farms in the UK (4.33 FTE per 100 ha) was almost twice that for conventional farms. We predict there would be 19% and 6% more farming jobs in the UK and IE if 20% of the farms of both countries were to become organic (compared to the present 1–2%).     

The impact of integrated aquaculture–agriculture on small-scale farms in Southern Malawi

Sustainable agricultural intensification is an urgent challenge for Sub-Saharan Africa. One potential solution is to rely on local farmers' knowledge for improved management of diverse on-farm resources and integration among various farm enterprises. In this article, we analyze the farm-level impact of one recent example, namely the integrated aquaculture–agriculture (IAA) technologies that have been developed and disseminated in a participatory manner in Malawi. Based on a 2004 survey of 315 respondents (166 adopters and 149 nonadopters), we test the hypothesis that adoption of IAA is associated with improved farm productivity and more efficient use of resources. Estimating a technical inefficiency function shows that IAA farms were significantly more efficient compared to nonadopters. IAA farms also had higher total factor productivity, higher farm income per hectare, and higher returns to family labor.