上海市物质资本存量估算:1978～2007

本文考察了当前较多采用的几种代表性的物质资本存量估算方法,讨论了基年资本存量、固定资产投资价格指数、当年投资以及折旧等物质资本存量估算四个基本变量的指标选取和计算.根据目前国内已有统计数据,采用不同方法具体估算和比较了上海改革开放开放30年间的总体物质资本存量及分三大产业的资本存量,发现上海总体资本存量、三大产业资本积累及资本-产出比的变动趋势,说明上海经济增长方式和产业结构的调整符合经济发展的一般规律.     

市场结构、投资替代与资本边际产出——转轨时期我国不同省份资本边际产出的变化特征及其成因分析

本文从市场结构特征与投资结构特征两个新的视角对转轨时期我国不同发展水平省份的资本边际产出的变化特征进行了分析。在分析的过程中,首先利用所构造的指标对各个省份的资本边际产出的纵向变化轨迹进行了考察并对不同省份资本边际产出的横向差异性进行了比较,在此基础上。我们构建了解释资本边际产出变化特征及资本长期积累特征的理论模型并利用样本数据对其进行了验证,所得的基本结论如下：第一。投资结构的变化解释了转轨时期不同发展水平省份资本边际产出的趋同性特征;第二,市场结构的变化解释了各省资本边际产出在转轨后期出现的迅速下降现象;第三,以非国有和集体投资比重或更新改造投资比重增加为标志的投资结构优化有助于总投资规模的更快速增长。     

中国高新技术产业研发资本存量和研发产出效率

本文运用中国高新技术产业的面板数据，在测算研发资本存量的基础上．构建了柯布一道格拉斯型研发生产函数．研究了研发生产的要素投入问题、研发生产的性质及其相关影响因素。研究发现：（1）在我国高新技术产业研发生产中，研发资本的贡献高于研发人员的贡献，研发生产过程表现出规模报酬递增的特征；（2）外资产权、企业规模对研发产出效率呈显著正效用；国有产权、以企业数为指标的市场结构以及绩效（利润和税收）对研发产出效率呈显著负效用：（3）我国国有及国有控股高新技术企业产权清晰度较高．对研发产出效率负面影响较小；法制不健全、政策不稳定等外部因素对我国高新技术产业研发产出效率负面影响较大。     

吸收外资的产业结构升级效应及其影响机制分析

对目前我国外资工业产业结构的基本特点及其作用以及外资产业投向的影响机制进行了实证分析。认为比较优势与资本产出规模效应是外商产业投资取向的主要影响因素，外资提升产业结构的作用主要体现在本身的技术优势，结构因素的效应并不明显。     

ICT资本对各地高技术产业产出影响及边际产出

新一轮经济扩张中，信息通讯技术的创新和外溢成为生产率增长最主要的原因，ICT本身也因此成为学术界广泛研究的对象。本文采用面板数据的回归分析方法，运用C—D函数扩展模型，将高技术资本分为ICT资本和其他高技术资本，测算了ICT资本对我国各地区高技术产业产出的影响，并比较了两类高技术资本边际产出的高低。研究结果表明：（1）两类高技术资本都与高技术产业产出之间存在明显的正相关关系；（2）ICT资本的边际产出低于其他行业高技术资本的边际产出。据此提出了相应的政策含义。     

产出效率视角下湖北区域产业投资结构差异比较研究

传统要素红利边际效应递减,固定资产投资产出效率下降也已是事实。但投资的内在冲动使部分地方政府和企业更关心短期内投资的数量和规模,同时缺乏统一的评估标准,也使地方政府和企业无从把握投资的合理度,长期以往,将难以保证对投资合理化的长期性追求,也无法为经济转型升级打牢坚实基础。湖北各区域产业投资差异与产出效率的相对变化反映出,从调整投资结构入手,以投资产出效率变动作为调整产业投资结构的重要考量变量是一种可行策略,不仅可在一定程度上、一段时间、一定区域内有效缓解投资产出效率快速下降的势头,而且有利于地方自主把握调整产业投资结构,提高产业发展的协调性。     

研发投入、知识存量与内资企业创新产出——基于高技术产业的经验分析

利用高技术产业面板数据实证检验研发投入和知识存量对内资企业创新产出的影响,研究发现:研发投入是内资企业创新商业化产出的主要驱动力,国内知识存量是决定内资企业创新中间产出的关键因素,国外技术引进有利于内资企业创新商业化产出但不利于创新中间产出,外商直接投资技术溢出对内资企业创新中间产出和创新商业化产出的影响均不显著。研究结论表明,加强研发投入和国内知识存量开发利用是提高内资企业创新产出的主要途径。     

华侨对台投资产业选择之趋势

华侨对台投资产业选择之趋势刘孟俊台湾经济发展初期引进侨资和外资的目的在于补充岛内资本形成及储蓄之不足，进而支持岛内产业发展。其中，侨资早在１９５２年以前就已经进入台湾，而外资则在１９５５年后才流入台湾。目前，侨资投资案件数占全部侨外资核准案件的３６％...     

资本深化、人力资本积累与中国经济持续增长

本文针对近年来中国经济转轨过程中呈现资本深化的特征,引入人力资本积累因素进行分析。分析表明:中国的资本-产出比在1978～1994年呈现逐年下降的态势,1994～1998年呈现上升趋势,1999～2003年出现缓慢下降趋势;1978年以来,中国人力资本存量不断提高,并且由于存在人力资本的外部性,导致人均物质资本上升,但这种人均物质资本和资本-产出比的上升由于人力资本边际报酬递增的作用,使整个经济具有可持续的增长;物质资本积累是中国过去20多年经济增长的主要贡献因素,人力资本存量增长缓慢,但在近几年有所改善。     

中国分行业物质资本存量估算(1980-2018年)

物质资本存量是宏观经济分析中的重要指标。虽然大量研究已经对我国的物质资本存量进行了估算,但是针对分行业物质资本存量的估算研究仍十分罕见。本研究在对官方数据进行充分挖掘的基础上,采用永续盘存法对1980-2018年分19个行业的物质资本存量进行了系统的估算。相对于现有研究,本研究在时间跨度和行业分类方面均进行了拓展,此外还利用投入产出表信息对官方投资数据的潜在高估问题进行了调整。本文的估算结果显示,改革开放以来,我国物质资本存量整体上增长较快,并且在不同的改革阶段表现出了明显的行业差异。此外,自2008年全球金融危机以来,建筑、金融和房地产以及公共部门的资本产出比快速攀升,是造成我国整体经济的资本产出比出现快速上升的直接原因。     

M50输出品牌

从粗纺厂演变为上海创意产业的时尚地标，M50走到今天有许多历史的机缘，但集团高层的战略眼光与理念坚持，是其中必不可缺的因素。如今，M50的首个实现品牌输出的分园——M50西部桃浦创意园（SHANGHAI TOP）隆重开园，这不仅标志着M50开始了品牌输出之路，     

Output collapses and productivity destruction

In this paper we analyze the long-run relationship between output collapses—defined as GDP falling substantially below trend—and total factor productivity (TFP). We use a panel of 76 developed and developing countries during the period 1960–2004 to identify episodes of output collapse and estimate counterfactual post-collapse TFP trends. Collapses are concentrated in developing countries, especially Africa and Latin America, and were particularly widespread in the 1980s in Latin America. Overall, output collapses are systematically associated with long-lasting declines in TFP. We explore the conditions under which collapses are least or most damaging, as well as the type of shocks that make collapses more likely or severe. Furthermore, we provide a quantification of the associated welfare loss with output collapses.     

Discounting according to Output Type

Federal discount rate policies advocate both a high rate representing the marginal productivity of capital and a low rate representing the government borrowing rate. These differential discount rate policies could be inconsistent and biased in favor of projects on which the lower discount rate is applied. This paper shows that the coexistence of different discount rates may be appropriate, depending on the type of project output. When a project's outputs are perfect substitutes for private consumption, both its costs and benefits should be discounted using the marginal productivity of capital. However, if the project's outputs are separable in the utility function, the benefits should be discounted using the net (of tax) rate of return.     

Reconciling Output and Unemployment Fiscal Multipliers

ABSTRACT

This paper provides a macroeconomic model that can simultaneously explain output and unemployment multipliers which are consistent with empirical evidence. To this end, this paper has merged and investigated a model with deep habit formation in private and public consumptions and a model with a labour market friction that generates involuntary unemployment stemming from the monopolistic power of differentiated labour services. The model with a baseline calibration seems to produce quantitatively plausible responses of key macroeconomic variables in response to a government expenditure shock.     

软投入制约下产出的损失分析

本文主要依据现代经济增长理论和软投入理论,对我国经济增长问题,尤其是在非科技型软投入要素对中国经济增长制约的条件下进行了深入研究,并测算了软投入制约下的GDP损失。“二五”期间,我国GDP损失最高,占实际GDP的19.78%。“八五”时期,GDP损失最低,仅为实际GDP的0.78%。“九五”时期,GDP损失占实际GDP比例上升至2.43%,而实际投入组合与最优投入组合之间的夹角也增加至12.51°,这表明我国经济增长的质量有所下降。     

Output gaps and inflation in Mainland China

We estimate output gaps using three methods for Mainland China on annual data spanning 1982–2003. The estimates are similar and appear to co-move with inflation. Standard Phillips curves, however, do not fit the data well. This may reflect the omission of some important variable(s) such as the effect of price deregulation, trade liberalisation and/or changes in the exchange rate regime. We re-estimate the Phillips curves assuming that there is an unobserved variable that follows an AR(2) process. The modified model fits the data much better and accounts for some of the surprising features of the simple Phillips curve estimates.     

Price and Output Stability under Price-Level Targeting

It is commonly believed that a monetary policy that targets the price level reduces the long-term variability of the price level, but only at the cost of increased variability of both inflation and output. We develop a model in which the one-step-ahead variance of output and the price level are lower under price-level targeting than under inflation targeting. This increased stability under price-level targeting works through an interest-rate channel that, to our knowledge, has not previously been emphasized in the literature. Surprisingly, if the sensitivity of demand to the real rate of interest is high enough, then the variance of inflation can also be lower under price-level targeting than under inflation targeting.     

Output Expectations and Forecasting of UK Manufacturing

This paper analyses both quarterly data from the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) Survey on respondents’ expectations of recent and forthcoming manufacturing output and monthly Office of National Statistics (ONS) figures on actual manufacturing output within the UK. Quarterly output expectations of the CBI manufacturers are explained from the monthly ONS observations using a bounded rationality approach. The logistic formulation models the diffusion process across respondents. There is a backward-looking CBI Survey perspective, explained by past ONS observations, and a forward-looking perspective, explained from future ONS statistics. Also, the forecasting of monthly manufacturing output from earlier values, along with the quarterly CBI Survey information, is examined and tested against the alternative Pesaran/Thomas method. The study provides econometric evidence for the validity of the logistic model and shows that bounded rationality can explain the formation of predictions among business managers in the UK manufacturing sector. The emerging consensus from the literature, supported by this paper, is that the logistic format is a superior approximation to the true data generating process compared with the earlier standard Anderson/Pesaran/Thomas approach. An adjustment to the Survey is used, which achieves perfect symmetry with up and down versions of the data. The benefits of this adjustment are tested in the forecasting section.

2020：经济总量或超美国

CCER中国经济观察项目（简称CEO），是在林毅夫教授、宋国青教授、周其仁教授领导下实施的一个项目，开始于2005年，主要内容是组织季度经济研讨会，邀请中国经济最顶尖的研究者发表对中国经济走势的看法。CCER还与20多个特约机构合作发布“朗润预测”，对GDP、CPI等九个主要宏观经济指标提出季度性预测，并在CEO上发布。