Vertical intra-industry trade and foreign direct investment in East Asia

As economic integration in East Asia progresses, trade patterns within the region are displaying an ever-greater complexity: Though inter-industry trade still accounts for the majority, its share in overall trade is declining. Instead, intra-industry trade (IIT), which can be further divided into horizontal IIT (HIIT) and vertical IIT (VIIT), is growing in importance.In this paper, we set out to measure and examine vertical intra-industry trade patterns in the East Asian region and compare these with the results of previous studies focusing on the EU, to which such analyses so far have been confined. Based on the supposition that VIIT is closely related to offshore production by multinational enterprises, we then develop a model to capture the main determinants of VIIT that explicitly includes the role of FDI. The model is tested empirically using data from the electrical machinery industry. The findings support our hypothesis, showing that FDI plays a significant role in the rapid increase in VIIT in East Asia seen in recent years. J. Japanese Int. Economies 17 (4) (2003) 468–506.     

湾区经济发展战略下深圳自贸区的构建

深圳作为21世纪海上丝绸之路的桥头堡,必须大力发展湾区经济,而湾区经济的发展又离不开自贸区的建立,本文在论述深圳湾区经济发展战略重要性和深圳建立自贸区必要性的基础上,分析了湾区经济与自贸区的关系,提出了构建深圳自贸区的设想和建议,对深圳深化改革和转变经济发展模式具有重要意义。     

Domestic product standards,harmonization, and free trade agreements

Review of World Economics - This study considers endogenous domestic standards on products to control negative consumption externalities using a three-country model of international oligopoly with...     

Effective rates of protection revisited for Indonesia

This paper calculates nominal and effective rates of protection for Indonesian tradables sectors in early 2008, and compares these figures with previous calculations for 1987 and 1995. Such a review is overdue. Many non-tariff barriers to imports and exports have been abolished, though new import restraints on rice and sugar are notable exceptions to this trend. Import tariffs have been lowered, particularly through regional preferential trade arrangements. We account for such arrangements in two different ways. Export taxes persist in certain natural resources sectors, but most rates have been reduced. We find that more than half of the effective support provided to tradable products sectors now comes from subsidies on fuels, fertiliser, electricity and liquefied petroleum gas, rather than from trade policies per se. Duty drawbacks and exemptions for exporters boost the effective rate of protection for tradables sectors overall by a small fraction of 1%, and for no input–output sector by more than 3%.     

Strategic export subsidies and reciprocal trade agreements: The natural monopoly case

Why do governments seek restrictions on the use of export subsidies through reciprocal trade agreements such as GATT? In this paper, we emphasize that subsidy competition between governments can serve to coordinate the entry decisions of firms, finding that consumers in the importing countries may suffer if the coordination afforded exporters by government subsidy programs does more to prevent entry than to promote it. In such circumstances, we show that the existence of export subsidy programs can lead to inefficiencies, and importing countries and the world as a whole can be better off when such programs are banned.     

中、澳经贸:自由贸易协定的机遇和挑战

中、澳自由贸易协定谈判从2005年10月开始,迄今已经进行了9个回合。本文分析了中、澳双边经贸关系的现状,并探讨了自由贸易协定给中、澳经贸可能带来的机遇和挑战,并提出推动中、澳经贸关系、加速中、澳自由贸易区建设的一些建议。     

中国——东盟自由贸易区服务贸易紧急保障措施刍议

中国—东盟自由贸易区《服务贸易协议》紧急保障措施制度是我国与东盟国家在服务贸易领域立法的一次重要突破,但其行文过于简单,缺乏可操作性,在分析中国—东盟自由贸易区服务贸易紧急保障措施立法的成就与不足的基础上提出完善该制度的一些设想。     

Can Import Tariffs Deter Outward FDI?

In this paper we analyze a country's optimal trade policy when its labor market is unionized and firms are footloose. We show that an important objective for governments to use import protection is to prevent their domestic multinationals to go to a non-unionized location abroad and to serve their country from a distance. A domestic government will set a positive tariff to dissuade its multinational from engaging in outward FDI when the additional profits it repatriates, do not compensate for the loss of domestic union rent. To put it differently, we show that when the domestic labor market is unionized, trade liberalisation between countries with similar wage levels is likely to result in domestic welfare losses as a result of outward FDI. Only when wage differences between countries are large enough, can outward FDI improve domestic welfare and optimal tariffs will be zero. JEL Classification Numbers: L13, F23     

高雄自由贸易港区面临之机会及挑战

我国台湾最重要的国际港为高雄港,具有先天优越地理位置与气候条件,航线密集且广,1999年仅次于我国香港、新加坡,列为全球第三大货柜港。但近年来由于我国台湾产业结构转变,致使传统产业不断外移,使得进出口货柜量增长趋于缓慢;同时亚太地区新兴港埠迅速兴起,为了争取转口货源,港埠之间竞争更为激烈。高雄港货柜装卸量于2003年相继被釜山港、上海港及深圳港超越,落居全球货柜港第六名。为有效改善高雄港货柜运输作业环境,亟需深入探索高雄港转口营运绩效衰退因素及目前发展困境,进而研提策略以提升国际运输服务水平。本文利用SWOT分析法,对港埠经营所处的内、外部环境进行检视,找出高雄港最佳的营运目标与竞争策略方案,协助高雄港提升营运绩效及港埠竞争力。     

On the bilateral trade effects of free trade agreements between the EU-15 and the CEEC-4 countries

The expansion of regionalism has spawned an extensive theoretical literature analysing the effects of free trade agreements (FTAs) on trade flows. In this paper we focus on FTAs (also called European agreements) between the European Union (EU-15) and the Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC-4, i.e. Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland and Romania) and model their effects on trade flows by treating the agreement variable as endogenous. Our theoretical framework is the gravity model, and the econometric method used to isolate and eliminate the potential endogeneity bias of the agreement variable is the fixed effect vector decomposition (FEVD) technique. Our estimation results indicate a positive and significant impact of FTAs on trade flows. This finding is robust to the inclusion in the sample of a group of control countries (specifically Belarus, the Russian Federation and the Ukraine) that did not sign an FTA. Besides, we show that trade growth after the FTA agreement with the EU was signed exceeded trade growth of the control group of countries, which did not become members.

Preferential trade agreements and their role in world trade

This paper investigates the effects of preferential trade agreements (PTAs) on bilateral trade using a comprehensive data base of PTAs in force and a detailed matrix of world trade. Total trade between PTA partners is a poor proxy for preferential trade (trade in tariff lines where preferences are likely to matter): while the former was one-third of global trade in 2000–2002, the latter was between one-sixth and one-tenth. Gravity model estimates indicate that using total trade to assess the impacts of PTAs leads to a significant downward bias in the PTA coefficient: the semi-elasticity of trade with respect to PTA membership rises from 87% for total trade to 119% for preferential trade. Product exclusions and long phase-in periods significantly limit preferential trade; the marginal impact of South-South agreements on preferential trade is much higher than North-South PTAs, while the effect of North-North agreements is insignificantly different from zero.     

Preferential trade agreements and the structure of international trade

In this paper we examine the impact of membership in preferential trade agreements (PTAs) on trade between PTA members. Rather than considering the impact of PTA membership on the volume of trade we consider the impact of membership on the structure of trade. For a large sample of countries over the period 1962–2000 we find that membership in a PTA is associated with an increase in the extent of intra-industry trade. Our results indicate that this is especially the case for PTAs formed between richer countries, with the effects of PTAs between poorer countries found to be smaller.     

美国自由贸易协定战略与中国的应对策略

本文详细分析了美国已经签订的自由贸易协定和即将签订的自由贸易协定战略布局,在此基础上,论证了美国签订自由贸易协定对中国贸易发展格局的影响与启示,最后提出中国的应对策略。     

中国-东盟自由贸易区的新政治经济学分析

基于新政治经济学的分析框架,本文探讨了中国-东盟自由贸易区带给各国的收益,并分析了可能使其发展趋势发生逆转的因素,并提出了相应的政策建议。     

Understanding the role of trade agreements in Indonesia’s FDI

In this paper, we develop the hypothesis that trade agreements influence foreign direct investment (FDI). We extend the conventional model of FDI determinants to accommodate the role of trade agreements. Fitting Indonesian data to this model, we discover strong evidence that, while both bilateral and multilateral trade agreements positively influence Indonesia’s FDI, multilateral agreements have a larger effect. We further distinguish FDI by sector and find sector-specific trade agreements play an active role: these agreements positively influence FDI in the primary and service sectors, but not in the manufacturing sector. We also find that trade agreements positively influence FDI through the export and total factor productivity channels, and less so through the economic growth channel.     

From protectionism to free trade fever? Recent reforms in developing countries

During the 1980s, increasing numbers of developing countries unilaterally liberalized their trade regimes. This paper presents an overview of this dramatic shift from protectionism toward freer trade. South Asia, Latin America, and East Asia have implemented extensive reforms, yet each region has shown a distinct difference in approach and in the degree of liberalization actually achieved. Latin America stands out as moving sharply toward the level of openness of the East Asian Newly Industrialized Countries (NICs). Only in Africa is there little progress toward freer trade.     

中日韩自由贸易区构建探析

尽管中日韩之间目前仍存在诸多阻碍区域合作的因素,但三国经济合作潜力大、经贸关系日益密切,为中日韩自由贸易区的建立奠定了现实基础。