Five reasons for the use of network analysis in the history of economics

ABSTRACT

Network analysis is increasingly appreciated as a methodology in the social sciences. In recent years, it is also receiving attention among historians of science. History of economics is no exception in that researchers have begun to use network analysis to study a variety of topics, including collaborations and interactions in scientific communities, the spread of economic theories within and across fields, or the formation of new specialties in the discipline of economics. Against this backdrop, a debate is emerging about how network analysis can help address questions that are pertinent to the history of economics. With this paper, we want to push this debate one step forward by offering and discussing five reasons why network analysis should have a future in the history of economics.     

The perils of peer review in economics and other sciences

The quality of researchers' work in economics and other sciences is generally evaluated through a system of peer review. In an experimental test it is shown that the peer review system can be very inefficient by creating a bias towards incremental development of existing methods and against exploration of new methods. Previous studies on this issue have put the blame on biases in individual judgement. Here the inefficiency is shown to occur even when researchers are rational and have perfect information as a result of strategic uncertainty about the extent to which other referees reject new methods. The experiment also shows that the bias generated by peer review can be alleviated by shifting some quality evaluation to non-researchers, even if these are poor at discerning quality.     

The turn in recent economics and return of orthodoxy

This paper examines change on the economics research frontier,and asks whether the current competition between new researchprogrammes may be supplanted by a new single dominant approachin the future. The paper discusses whether economics tends tobe dominated by a single approach or reflect a pluralism ofapproaches, and argues that, historically, it has alternatedbetween the two. It argues that orthodoxy usually emerges fromheterodoxy, and interprets the division between orthodoxy andheterodoxy in terms of a core–periphery distinction. Regardingrecent economics, the paper maps out two different types ofcombinations of new research programmes as being synchronicor diachronic in nature. It treats the new research programmesas a new kind of heterodoxy, and asks how a new orthodoxy mightarise out of this new heterodoxy and traditional heterodoxy.It discusses this question by advancing two views regardinghow to different types of combinations in the new research programmesmight consolidate along the lines of three shared commitmentswith traditional heterodoxy to form a new orthodoxy in economics.     

Functions and failures: how to manage technological promises for societal challenges

Technological promises are becoming part of the way in which scientific and technological communities try to attract the attention of stakeholders, aiming at legitimation, reputation, and funding. Not all promises, however, become reality. With the increase in the use of promises comes the risk of disillusion and cynicism, which may affect negatively policy-makers and the public opinion. The paper suggests that the introduction in the field of S&T and innovation policy of a tool commonly used in engineering fields aimed at identifying and measuring all possible failures of a proposed technology. Instead of focusing on the magnitude of promises, it suggests that a useful perspective can be gained by placing systematic attention to the negative side, i.e. all reasons why a given technology may fail to deliver the promises. The paper develops the methodology, presents a case study, and illustrates the benefits of using it in policy-making.     

《经济学家》载文和引文定量分析

运用文献计量学的方法,依据、<中文社会科学引文索引CSSCI>、<中国学术期刊综合引证报告>的数据,对全国中文核心期刊--<经济学家>创刊以来,特别是2000年以后所发论文的载文(包括载文量、作者地区、作者行业、栏目载文量)和引文(包括被引频次、影响因子、被引作者、被它刊引用)的定量分析,客观揭示该刊在我国学术界的整体水平和重要影响,以及社会科学研究者对该刊物的借鉴、汲取情况.     

Epistemology and the tasks of feminist economics

This paper examines the implications of current epistemological debates for the work of feminist economists. Feminist economists must acknowledge (in accordance with recent developments in the study of science) that (a) inquirers can never be certain whether claims about the world are true; (b) scientific inquiry is permeated with “internal” and “external” values; and (c) beliefs are affected by inquirers' social locations. But feminists should not, it argues, embrace the “relativist” stance of some postmodern thinkers, or reject the ideal of “truth,” or argue that beliefs are strictly determined by inquirers' identities and interests. It seeks to outline an epistemological “middle ground” for feminist economics, between the extremes of exaggerated claims of certainty and a disempowering relativism.     

The economics of poverty traps part one: Complete markets

This paper lists theoretical reasons why neoclassical models of one-sector growth imply that nations with identical economic structures need not converge to the same steady state or balanced growth path, and outlines the empirical significance and policy implications of conditional nonconvergence. We survey poverty traps in both convex and nonconvex economies with complete market structures. Among the potential causes of traps are subsistence consumption; distorted international trade in intermediate inputs; demographic transitions when fertility is endogenous; technological complementarities in the production of consumption goods, financial intermediation services, manufactures, or human capital; coordination failures among voters; various restrictions on borrowing; indivisibilities in human capital formation or child rearing; and monopolistic competition in product or factor markets.     

Health economics of medical devices: opportunities and challenges

Expenditure on medical devices is substantial and is expected to grow in the future. This Editorial draws attention to health economic issues surrounding medical devices. To this effect, opportunities and challenges involved in the economic analysis of the market structure of medical device sectors and in the economic evaluation of medical devices are identified.

Markets for medical devices tend to be fragmented and suffer from a lack of transparency and competition. In response to this, there is extensive government intervention in many developed countries with a view to keeping down prices, restricting public reimbursement and promoting an efficient use of medical devices. Studies are called for that evaluate and compare country approaches towards regulating medical device markets with a view to informing medical-device policies.

Whereas economic evaluation of medicines is well established, and is used to inform pricing and reimbursement decisions in many developed countries, this is less the case for medical devices. There is a need for economic evaluations of medical devices with a view to demonstrating their cost effectiveness. In addition, countries need to implement frameworks for the assessment of new and emerging medical devices with a view to taking pricing and reimbursement decisions.     

国外农村公共服务中基层组织的特征及启示

国外农村基层组织是农村公共服务供给的基本主体,在公共服务供给中发挥着重要的作用,发展至今已有百年历史,形成了组织形式多样性、组织类型非均衡性、数量变化非线性及地位作用的差异性等一些共同特征。通过对国外农村公共服务中基层组织特征的深入分析,对我国农村基层组织的建设和发展方面提供一些有益的启示。包括组织形式应灵活多样、组织应适当调整、组织地位应明确及因需而设等。     

A comparison between qualitative and quantitative histories: the example of the efficient market hypothesis

ABSTRACT

This paper uses the example of the history of the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) and citation analysis in order to investigate some differences between qualitative history and a quantitative history. The history of the EMH provides a telling example of the way quantitative analyses can supply different perspectives on the qualitative history of this hypothesis or complement it. For instance, since the EMH was proposed, several criticisms emerged. In addition, the definition and the scope of this hypothesis have been modified several times. Although the qualitative history of the EMH refers to these criticisms and these alternative definitions and scopes, qualitative tools cannot provide a clear measure of the impact of these criticisms and these modifications among economists. By studying the dissemination of the EMH, its major criticisms, and the answers economists provided, citation analysis sheds a different light on the history of the EMH.     

The effectiveness of quantitative easing: new evidence on private investment

This paper examines the effect of Federal Reserve’s large-scale purchases of securities on private investment. We find tentative evidence that quantitative easing (QE) stimulated the level of aggregate investment through the interest rate channel by narrowing corporate bond spread. In particular, the Fed’s purchases of mortgage-backed securities were found to have a statistically significant effect on aggregate private investment. Moreover, using a GARCH model, we find that QE has led to a reduction in the volatility of private investment. This finding remains robust with a QE dummy variable as an alternative measure of the unconventional monetary policy. The study also indicates how different aspects of QE influence private investment and its volatility.     

Evolutionary economics and the counterfactual threat: on the nature and role of counterfactual history as an empirical tool in economics

Counterfactual conditional statements are ubiquitous in any scientific endeavour. This paper contains an analysis of the nature of counterfactual conditionals and the conditions under which they are considered assertable by scientists. The paper then applies this analysis to the use of counterfactuals in evolutionary economics, arguing that because evolutionary economics is inherently concerned with historical processes it cannot avoid the use of counterfactual history as one of its tools of empirical analysis. We discuss the strengths and pitfalls of counterfactual history. We argue that because evolutionary economics starts from the foundation that randomness may be inherent in any economic system, the very aspects of evolutionary economics that make counterfactual history a desirable empirical tool also make that tool difficult to employ. RID="*" ID="*" We thank the participants of the International Seminar on Evolutionary Economics as a Research Programme in Stockholm, May 1997, for many helpful comments. We also thank Lorri Baier for many helpful substantive and textual comments. Correspondence to: R. Cowan     

1985: A defining year in the history of modern Austrian economics

Mises and Hayek in the 1920s and 1940s thought of their work as within the orthodoxy of economic science. But after WWII it became increasingly obvious that the contributions of Mises and Hayek were out of step with the way the economics profession was evolving. But starting in 1974, due to the organizational efforts of Murray Rothbard and Israel Kirzner, and bolstered by the awarding of the Nobel Prize in Economic Science to FA Hayek, a resurgence of interest in Austrian economics by young scholars was initiated. Starting in 1984, but significantly in 1985, the work of the new generation of Austrian economics started to have an impact in the mainstream outlets in terms of journals and university presses. We argue that this is a defining year in the modern history of the Austrian school and that it reflected both the quality of work being done by the new generation as well as a methodological crisis within the mainstream of economic scholarship. Don Lavoie’s work in comparative economics, as well as his work in methodology, reflected this shift within the economic conversation.     

The economics of gateway technologies and network evolution: Lessons from electricity supply history

Contemporary economic issues concerning technological innovation and compatibility standardization in emergent ‘network’ industries are illuminated indirectly in this paper by the examination of the historical development of the technology of electric light and power systems in the United States and Europe during the late nineteenth and early twentieth century. The discussion focuses on the rivalry between the initially incompatible technical formulations of a system supplying electric lighting and power. In the dynamics of competition between alternative technologies under such conditions, the details of the timing of small historical events could have important and lasting consequences.Special notice is given to the role which the induced invention of a compatibility-creating technical device-the rotary converter-played in the conduct and resolution of the so-called ‘Battle of the Systems’. The rotary converter is analyzed as a paradigmatic ‘gateway innovation’, one of a large class of ‘minor’ technological innovations whose actual importance in the context of network evolution warrants greater recognition from economists.     

The origins and evolution of democracy: an exercise in history from a constitutional economics approach

In this article the conditions for the rise and fall of representative regimes are explored. High citizen mobility and unexploited opportunities for investment create the need of reassuring factor owners against the tax hunger of the State. This may lead to the emergence of representative institutions of government, a process that reverts when those conditions disappear. Factors that facilitate or restrain the mobility of citizenry are identified, mainly in the domain of military technology. Thus, a number of interrelations between production and war technologies, political development and economic performance are revealed, giving rise to an interpretation of historical evolution.

Field experiments in economics: The past, the present, and the future

This study presents an overview of modern field experiments and their usage in economics. Our discussion focuses on three distinct periods of field experimentation that have influenced the economics literature. The first might well be thought of as the dawn of “field” experimentation: the work of Neyman and Fisher, who laid the experimental foundation in the 1920s and 1930s by conceptualizing randomization as an instrument to achieve identification via experimentation with agricultural plots. The second, the large-scale social experiments conducted by government agencies in the mid-twentieth century, moved the exploration from plots of land to groups of individuals. More recently, the nature and range of field experiments has expanded, with a diverse set of controlled experiments being completed outside of the typical laboratory environment. With this growth, the number and types of questions that can be explored using field experiments has grown tremendously. After discussing these three distinct phases, we speculate on the future of field experimental methods, a future that we envision including a strong collaborative effort with outside parties, most importantly private entities.     

A quantitative theory of the gender gap in wages

This paper measures how much of the gender wage gap over the life cycle is due to the fact that working hours are lower for women than for men. We build a quantitative theory of fertility, labor supply, and human capital accumulation decisions to measure gender differences in human capital investments over the life cycle. We assume that there are no gender differences in the human capital technology and calibrate this technology using wage–age profiles of men. The calibration of females assumes that children involves a forced reduction in hours of work that falls on females rather than on males and that there is an exogenous gender gap in hours of work. We find that our theory accounts for all of the increase in the gender wage gap over the life cycle in the NLSY79 data. The impact of children on the labor supply of females accounts for 56% and 45% of the increase in the gender wage gap over the life cycle among non-college and college females, while the rest is due to the exogenous gender differences in hours of work.     

The effect of quantitative easing on stock prices: a structural time series approach

A structural time series model is estimated and tested to examine the effect of quantitative easing (QE) on US stock prices. The model is estimated by maximum likelihood in a Time-varying parametric (TVP) framework, using the S&P 500 index as the dependent variable and the Fed’s balance as an explanatory variable in addition to the unobserved components accounting for the behaviour of variables that do not appear explicitly in the equation. The results show that QE had a sizeable, but not exclusive, effect on stock prices and that stock prices were also affected by other missing variables and cyclical movements. Several explanations are presented for the rise of the US stock market in the post-QE period, particularly since the election of Donald Trump.     

The economics of upper gastrointestinal bleeding in a US managed-care setting: a retrospective,claims-based analysis

Abstract

Objective: To assess 12-month healthcare resource utilization and costs associated with upper gastrointestinal (UGI) bleeding events.

Methods: Patients hospitalized with a UGI bleeding event were identified in US national health-plan claims data (1999–2003) and propensity matched to control patients without UGI bleeding in the same health plan. Matching criteria included age, gender, index date, Charlson Comorbidity Index score, geographic region, and prior medical utilization.

Results: A total of 9,033 UGI-bleed patients and 579,018 control patients met the inclusion criteria, yielding 4,651 matched pairs. After matching, differences between the UGI bleed and general population cohorts remained for office visits, ER visits, and ER costs during the 6-month baseline period prior to the index date. During the 12 months following the index date, both UGI-related healthcare utilization and total healthcare, medical, and pharmacy costs incurred by the UGI-bleed cohort were significantly greater (p<?0.0001) than those incurred by the general population cohort (mean of $20,405 vs. 3,652), even after excluding the initial hospitalization costs (mean of $11,228 vs. 3,652). Costs were primarily due to inpatient hospitalizations (mean of $13,059 for the UGI-bleed cohort vs. $729 for the general population cohort) and ambulatory services (mean of $4,037 for the UGI-bleed cohort vs. $1,537 for the general population cohort). Sixteen percent of the UGI-bleed cohort had a GI-related hospitalization, and about 40% of total costs occurred after the initial hospitalization.

Conclusions: Patients with UGI bleeds experienced significantly higher (p<?0.0001) 12-month health-resource utilization and costs than patients without UGI bleeds. This study provides empirical evidence of the long-term economic burden associated with UGI bleeding. Interpretation of the results should take into account the lack of available information in claims data that could have an effect on study outcomes, such as particular clinical and disease-specific parameters that are not mitigated by propensity score and comorbidity index matching. In addition, this study is limited by the intensive demographic matching that was done between the two cohorts, which may have eliminated the sickest UGI patients and the healthiest general health-plan population patients.     

Religion,economics and politics: The Bishops and Keynes in the post-Keynesian ERA

This paper makes a proposal for reintroducing sociological or social economics into contemporary economic science. Such a reintroduction is proposed to be substantive, by analyzing the social structuring of the economy, and formal, by including sociological/social economics in the current (JEL) classification system of economic disciplines (code A.15). Both epistemological and ontological arguments can be presented to support the proposal. Epistemological arguments invoke the presence of essential components of sociological economics in the development of economic thought, and ontological arguments stress the role of social factors in economic life. In this paper I present primarily epistemological (theoretical-methodological) arguments for sociological economics, and secondarily ontological ones. I show that the present designation, sociology of economics, is something different from sociological or social economics in that the former refers to economic epistemology (knowledge) and the latter to economic ontology (reality). I conclude that, in addition to a sociology of economic science, we need a sociology of economic life.