鲁比尼视野中的金融危机和经济危机

美国经济学家鲁里埃尔·鲁比尼因在西方经济学家中最早预言有可能爆发金融危机和经济危机而备受瞩目。危机爆发后,他跟踪研究,对危机提出了自己的若干独特见解。他尝试分析危机的原因,展望经济发展前景,提出应对危机的政策建议。但是,作为西方经济学家,他对危机根源等问题的认识具有明显的局限性。     

日本应对金融危机的新经济刺激方案

本文介绍了日本应对金融危机而出台的一系列经济刺激方案。重点对2009年4月10日,日本政府出台的名为《经济危机对策》进行介绍。详细阐述了日本政府克服经济危机的基本方针、雇佣对策、金融对策和中长期的科技对策。最后,对日本政府应对金融危机的特点进行总结。     

封闭条件下财政政策效应及其制约因素的一般分析

自经济危机发生以来,世界各国纷纷采取以扩大内需为主旨的积极的财政政策。从目前来看,尽管其对提升信心。抑制经济的继续下滑起到了作用,但离我们的预期政策目标还有较大的距离。究其主要原因,我们认为,财政政策主要受经济制度的制约而未能有效地发挥其应有的效应。以西方宏观经济理论中封闭条件下三部门IS—LM模型为主要分析工具,从理论上分析了制约财政政策效应发挥的各个变量,并实践上对制约中国财政政策效应的因素进行了详细分析。     

关于“双顺差”背景下实现中国内外均衡的思考

内外均衡目标是指充分就业、物价稳定、经济增长及国际收支均衡。目前，中国正面临通货紧缩的压力和国际收支双顺差的格局，因此需通过扩张性的财政及货币政策进行协调，同时辅以汇率及利率政策。只有内外兼顾统一才能使经济实现稳定发展。     

The global dimension to fiscal sustainability

This paper provides a new perspective of fiscal sustainability and financial globalization in emerging and industrial countries. We highlight the importance of global capital market shocks for fiscal sustainability, a relationship which has hitherto been ignored in the empirical literature. Using a factor model we demonstrate that the relationship between deficit and debt is conditional upon a global factor and we suggest that this global factor is related to world-wide liquidity. We also demonstrate that this acts as a constraint on emerging market economies’ fiscal policy.     

Do Government Purchases Affect Unemployment?

We estimate the effect of government purchases on unemployment in 20 OECD countries, for the period 1980–2007. An increase in government purchases, equal to 1 percent of GDP, is found to reduce unemployment by about 0.3 percentage points in the same year. The effect is greater and more persistent under less “employment‐friendly” labour‐market institutions, and it is greater and more persistent under a fixed exchange rate regime than under a floating regime. The effect is also greater in downturns than in booms. The effect on unemployment reflects a corresponding positive effect of increased government purchases on the employment‐to‐population rate.     

关于资本有机构成理论的几点思考

笔者认为理论界对资本有机构成理论关注不够,既有刻意回避的因素,又有认识不足的原因。社会主义条件下,资本有机构成的提高也可能引发经济危机;政府既应推动部分行业资本有机构成的提高,又应避免社会总资本有机构成在短时期内迅速提高。     

On the Anthropological Study of Economies: A Comment

This paper deals with the moral justification behind policy positions. Squeezed between the inevitability of having a welfare ideology and the mantra of value-neutrality (depoliticization), neoclassical policy economists tend to disguise their normative positions on policy matters as common sense. This attitude is particularly pronounced in what I will call "the rhetoric of worthiness," whereby the neoclassical approach justifies its advocacy that certain people should not be helped. This normative position is disguised by a vocabulary (e.g., moral hazard) claimed to be politically neutral. The present paper criticizes this neoclassical mode of policy evaluation in favor of a more socially conscious and innovative policy approach.     

Minimac : A small integrated model of the financial and real sectors of the Swedish economy

The model emphasizes the financial part of the economy and the channels through which the central bank and the government can affect it. The model combines a complete flow of fund matrix with an income–expenditure scheme in a common framework. The consistency of the flow of funds matrix is achieved through residual determination of one asset/liability from each financial balance identity. The model describes the Swedish credit market after the abolition of credit market regulation. Thus the policy instruments included comprise – among others – the interest rate scale, the cash reserve requirement, the exchange rate, government consumption and differential tax rates but no direct regulation of bank advances or investment in government securities. The model mechanisms are illustrated with policy simulations. Those display, in some instances, processes which after some periods tend to reverse the intended effects of the original policy measure. They therefore point to the need for a strategy which involves a sequential use of several policy instruments.     

Tax-spending policies and economic growth: Theoretical predictions and evidence from the OECD

We present an endogenous growth model to study the growth effects of the composition of government expenditure and the associated tax burden. When we use data from a set of 23 OECD countries during 1970–2000, our econometric results support the predictions of the theory. The share of productive government expenditure is associated with higher growth, and this result is more robust when we use effective average tax rates and statutory tax rates as measures of the tax burden. With respect to the tax burden, different tax rates have different growth effects.     

Differences in measures of the fiscal multiplier and the reduced-form vector autoregression

The literature has recently asked whether the effects of fiscal policy vary with the state of the economy (Christiano, Eichenbaum, and Rebelo 2011; Rendahl 2014; Auerbach and Gorodnichenko 2012). We study this question in the context of vector autoregression (VAR) estimation. We show formally that, if (asymptotically) the parameters of the reduced-form VAR differ, then the dynamic effects of fiscal policy differ as well, generically and for any set of identification assumptions. Thus, in theory, the econometrician can detect these differences (either across time or space) generically just by relying on reduced-form VAR estimation.     

Monetary and fiscal policy interactions in a New Keynesian model with capital accumulation and non-Ricardian consumers

The paper examines simple monetary and fiscal policy rules consistent with determinate equilibrium dynamics in the absence of Ricardian equivalence. Under this assumption, government debt turns into a relevant state variable which needs to be accounted for in the analysis of equilibrium dynamics. The key analytical finding is that without explicit reference to the level of government debt it is not possible to infer how strongly the monetary and fiscal instruments should be used to ensure determinate equilibrium dynamics. Specifically, we identify bifurcations associated with threshold values of steady-state debt, leading to qualitative changes in the local determinacy requirements.     

The Lost Decades: Developing Countries' Stagnation in Spite of Policy Reform 1980–1998

I document in this paper a puzzle thathas not received previous attention in the literature. In 1980–98,median per capita income growth in developing countries was 0.0percent, as compared to 2.5 percent in 1960–79. Yet I documentin this paper that variables that are standard in growth regressions—policieslike financial depth and real overvaluation, and initial conditionslike health, education, fertility, and infrastructure generallyimproved from 1960–79 to 1980–98. Developing countrygrowth should have increased instead of decreased according tothe standard growth regression determinants of growth. The stagnationseems to represent a disappointing outcome to the movement towardsthe ``Washington Consensus' by developing countries. I speculatethat worldwide factors like the increase in world interest rates,the increased debt burden of developing countries, the growthslowdown in the industrial world, and skill-biased technicalchange may have contributed to the developing countries' stagnation,although I am not able to establish decisive evidence for thesehypotheses. I also document that many growth regressions aremis-specified in a way similar to the Jones (1995) critique thata stationary variable (growth) is being regressed on non-stationaryvariables like policies and initial conditions. It may be thatthe 1960–1979 period was the unusual period for LDC growth,and the 1980–98 stagnation of poor countries representsa return to the historical pattern of divergence between richand poor countries.     

中央银行在应对经济危机中的作用及局限——马克思的论述及其当代价值

马克思以英格兰银行为例,深入地研究了中央银行在应对资本主义经济危机中的作用,其主要思想可以概括为三个方面.一是中央银行具有国家货币管理机构和信用枢纽的双重性质,这决定了中央银行有应对经济危机的内在职能.二是存在两种货币危机,即货币资本运动引发的"特种危机"和"任何危机的一个阶段".针对"特种危机",中央银行的应对措施既...     

Fiscal Multipliers and Their Relevance in a Currency Union – A Survey

The article reviews the debate on government spending multiplier and provides a detailed discussion of the underlying economic mechanisms, focusing on the role of the state of the business cycle and the monetary policy reaction. Special emphasis is on the effects of fiscal policy within a currency union and its implications for the euro crisis.