股指期货是股灾的“幕后推手”吗——基于2015年股灾期间沪深300股指期货高频数据实证分析

选取2015年6月15日至8月26日股灾期间沪深300股指期货与沪深300指数5分钟高频数据,通过E-G两步协整检验、格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应模型等,对股灾期间股指期货市场价格发现功能及波动溢出效应进行实证研究.结果表明:股灾期间沪深300股指期货仍具备价格发现功能,但存在对现货市场的单向波动溢出,具有一定的\"助跌\"效应.     

论股权分置改革对上市公司股价的影响——基于沪市试点股改的40家上市公司数据的分析

股权分置对单个样本公司的波动性指标和流动性指标影响因公司而异,总体上在短期内(即股改前后30个交易日)这一影响不是非常显著,在较长的时期内,这一影响较之短期有显著提高;股改对样本公司价格发现和平均超额收益率有着明显的影响,它主要体现在样本总体平均超额收益率上,股改后的样本总体平均超额收益率明显低于股改前。     

Computing the market price of volatility risk in the energy commodity markets

In this paper, we demonstrate the need for a negative market price of volatility risk to recover the difference between Black–Scholes [Black, F., Scholes, M., 1973. The pricing of options and corporate liabilities. Journal of Political Economy 81, 637–654]/Black [Black, F., 1976. Studies of stock price volatility changes. In: Proceedings of the 1976 Meetings of the Business and Economics Statistics Section, American Statistical Association, pp. 177–181] implied volatility and realized-term volatility. Initially, using quasi-Monte Carlo simulation, we demonstrate numerically that a negative market price of volatility risk is the key risk premium in explaining the disparity between risk-neutral and statistical volatility in both equity and commodity-energy markets. This is robust to multiple specifications that also incorporate jumps. Next, using futures and options data from natural gas, heating oil and crude oil contracts over a 10 year period, we estimate the volatility risk premium and demonstrate that the premium is negative and significant for all three commodities. Additionally, there appear distinct seasonality patterns for natural gas and heating oil, where winter/withdrawal months have higher volatility risk premiums. Computing such a negative market price of volatility risk highlights the importance of volatility risk in understanding priced volatility in these financial markets.     

Seasonal and stochastic effects in commodity forward curves

In this paper we develop a new model for the dynamics of forward curves of commodities exhibiting seasonalities, such as natural gas, electricity or agricultural commodities. In the existing literature on the subject, the first state variable in multi-factor models is the commodity price, which combines seasonal and stochastic features and may be unobservable. We propose to use instead the average forward price, which is devoid of seasonality and conveys a more robust representation of the current forward curve level. The second factor in the model is a quantity analogous to the stochastic convenience yield, which accounts for the random changes in the forward curve shape. The well-known cost-of-carry relationship is significantly improved by introducing a deterministic seasonal premium within the convenience yield. We develop model estimation procedures and apply them to a number of energy markets.     

Price limits in futures markets: effects on the price discovery process and volatility

Price limits are actively employed by many futures exchanges as a regulatory mechanism directed at reducing volatility and improving price discovery process. The aim of this paper is to investigate whether price limits achieve these goals without affecting market liquidity for a number of agricultural futures contracts. We employ models of changing volatility in order to show that price limits do not appear to significantly reduce market volatility. In addition, we find evidence confirming the hypothesis that price limits delay price discovery instead of facilitating it. Our results also suggest that the impact of price limits on volatility and price reversals, found in previous studies, are mainly due to the properties inherent to the futures returns, such as volatility clustering. Finally, although trading decreases significantly due to the price limits, traders do not seem to switch from the contracts affected by price limits to other maturities in order to minimize the impact of circuit breakers.     

Investment in Commodities Futures: The Accounting Implications

There are no rules within existing Generally Accepted Accounting Principles that apply to investment in commodities futures. In this paper, the accounting implications of investing in futures are explored. The accounting problems relate to the first record of the contract and to the subsequent recognition of gains and losses. There is no unequivocal answer under GAAP as to how futures contracts should be recorded. As with many other items in conventional accounting practice, the method of recording depends upon managers'intentions. This has obvious, and serious, implications for auditors.     

Liquidity and stock returns in pure order-driven markets: evidence from the Australian stock market

This paper examines the relationship between liquidity and stock returns in the pure order-driven stock market of Australia. The bid-ask spread, turnover rate, and amortized spread are used as proxies for liquidity. In addition to liquidity, other factors that have been found to influence stock returns, such as beta and size, are also considered. Seemingly unrelated regressions (SUR) and the cross-sectionally correlated timewise autoregressive (CSCTA) model form the methodological basis for this research. A small liquidity premium is found in the Australian market, which persists for the entire year. There is also strong evidence of a negative size effect.     

流动性过剩对我国一般物价水平的影响

本文考察了20世纪80年代中期以来我国流动性与物价变动之间的关系,分析了1990年代中期后我国物价水平保持基本稳定的原因。同时,本文也指出,流动性过剩大大增加了我国物价未来走势的不确定性和复杂性,短期内必须警惕由局部供给短缺冲击和流动性过剩相互交织而产生的一般物价和资产价格“双上涨”,中长期内还必须防范其他可能面临的风险。最后,在保持物价稳定的综合措施中,本文认为,应通过着力解决流动性过剩问题来改善宏观经济运行的基本环境。     

Market reaction to public information: The atypical case of the Boston Celtics

The publicly traded Boston Celtics Limited Partnership shares provide a unique means of studying the impact of information on equity prices. The results of the Celtics’ basketball games significantly affect partnership share returns, trading volume, and volatility. Controlling for the expectedvalue of the signal using betting-market point spreads has little effect on these relations. Investors respond asymmetrically to wins and losses, and playoff games have a larger impact on returns than regular-season games. Opening prices do not fully reflect game results, consistent with previous findings that significant volatility is caused by traders acting on private information.     

The liquidity cost implications arising from the attraction of regional primary listings: Evidence from West Africa

This study reviews the liquidity costs for firms in outlying regions in primary listing on a centralized stock exchange. Using a unique hand-collected sample comprising all listed firms from across West Africa we find evidence that firms from outlying regions do have higher illiquidity costs although these can be mitigated from improvements in transparency that are associated with increasing familiarity amongst investment community of central exchange. This evidence has implications regarding the integration of stock exchanges in developing regions where this is likely to result in a greater concentration of liquidity mitigating intended optimal redistribution of capital and resources.     

The effectiveness of incorporating higher moments in portfolio strategies: evidence from the Chinese commodity futures markets

This paper examines portfolio strategies that incorporate individual and systematic higher-order moments, within a stochastic optimization framework with uncertain mean and covariance. Using weekly, daily, and 30-minute interval data on Chinese commodity futures, we show that incorporating higher moments into portfolio strategies generally leads to better performance. The systematic fourth-order moment, among all systematic moments considered, can lead to the most robust, and a relatively large, improvement in investment performance, while the contribution of individual moments to the improved performance depends on the data horizon. We also find that adding higher moments brings superior performance in more cases for 30-minute-interval data than for other low-frequency data, suggesting that our strategy most likely performs best in 30-minute-rebalancing investments.