Internationalization and business tax revenue—evidence from Germany

The ongoing internationalization of business activity fuels concerns that governments may lose their ability to tax business income. By using data on sixteen German states from 1970 to 2005, we estimate the impact of internationalization, measured by trade volumes and stocks of foreign direct investment, on business tax revenues. We control for the impact of internationalization on business profits. Surprisingly, we find strong and robust evidence for a positive impact of internationalization on tax revenue. An increase in the internationalization indicator of ten percent increases tax revenue by over three percent. This counterintuitive result may be explained by higher tax avoidance activity of purely national firms or by legal provisions in the tax law which can be used as tax loopholes in the case of domestic transactions as opposed to cross-border transactions.     

When does comparability better enhance relevance? Policy implications from empirical evidence

This study investigates the user-specific contexts under which comparability better enhances relevance of accounting information. We first confirm the intuition in the FASB’s (2010) current conceptual framework by documenting that the short-window earnings response coefficient (ERC) is positively associated with the pre-determined level of comparability. Using the cross-sectional variation in the positive relation between ERC and comparability, we show that the link between ERC and comparability is more pronounced for firms with higher investor sophistication and lower information asymmetry among investors. We further support our predictions using analysts’ earnings forecast revisions and various alternative measures of earnings informativeness. In sum, our paper shows that comparability improves information users’ ability to identify similarities and differences across different firms to a greater extent when investor base is more sophisticated and private information is less prevalent. These results suggest that standard setters, regulators, and practitioners should devote more attention to the role of comparability in firms whose investors are less sophisticated and information environment is more opaque.     

Depositors’ trust: Some empirical evidence from Indonesia

We develop a comprehensive index, based on Robbins and Judge’s (2008) five dimensions of trust, to measure depositors’ trust in individual banks as well as trust in the banking industry and financial safety net. Using a survey of 992 retail depositors in Indonesia, we find that trust in individual banks where depositors save their money is greater than trust in the overall banking industry and financial safety net. We also find that depositors’ trust is affected by personal characteristics—for instance, women and older depositors have relatively less trust. Depositors tend to put their trust in individual banks and the financial system if they have greater trust in information conveyed by the government. Religious and economic values have positive effects on depositors’ trust at both the micro and macro levels. Our results also document that risk-taking behavior is positively associated with depositors’ trust. Furthermore, we find that more-educated depositors have significantly less trust. This finding might imply that the erosion of market discipline by depositors in a country with relatively generous deposit insurance, such as Indonesia, can be mitigated through greater financial literacy.     

Capturing short-term and long-term alpha of global bond portfolios: evidence from EUR-investors’ perspective

The main focus of this paper is the managerial skill or alpha of global bond funds. Analysis of the global bond market shows that both currency and bond-related returns are an integral part of the global fixed-income exposure. The present work deals with regression-based style analysis and other established methods in the bulk of finance journals literature, using both currency and fixed-income factors, and investigates the alpha of the globally invested fixed-income portfolios. There is empirical evidence that, between May 2007 and January 2015, global bond funds delivered significantly positive alpha. There is also an indication that periods of depreciation of the basis currency of the funds (EUR) improves fund performance, and market turmoil and negative events destroy alpha. During the Euro crisis and Fed tapering, the funds generated sustainable positive excess alpha. A division of the sample into two sub-samples gives more insight into the excess return. Additional robustness estimations deliver qualitatively similar results.     

Does sovereign risk matter? New evidence from eurozone corporate bond ratings and zero-volatility spreads

In this paper, we empirically examine if sovereign risk matters for corporate bonds in developed economies. Using a unique panel data sample of 897 corporate bonds from eleven countries within the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), we investigate sovereign and corporate ratings as well as zero-volatility spreads (z-spreads). In the time period from March 2006 to June 2012, we find sovereign risk to be a significant driver of corporate risk. The effect is stronger for companies with domestic revenue structure, for companies that are (partly) owned by the government, and companies active in the utility and transportation sector. Interestingly, the impact of sovereign risk on corporate risk during the acute European sovereign debt crisis period decreases if ratings are examined, but increases if z-spreads are utilized. Rating agencies seem to take a more differentiated view on individual company risk during the sovereign debt crisis, while institutional investors might want to reduce their exposure to a country in financial distress as a whole, regardless of whether sovereign or corporate bonds are held.     

Can interest rate volatility be extracted from the cross section of bond yields?

Most affine models of the term structure with stochastic volatility predict that the variance of the short rate should play a ‘dual role’ in that it should also equal a linear combination of yields. However, we find that estimation of a standard affine three-factor model results in a variance state variable that, while instrumental in explaining the shape of the yield curve, is essentially unrelated to GARCH estimates of the quadratic variation of the spot rate process or to implied variances from options. We then investigate four-factor affine models. Of the models tested, only the model that exhibits ‘unspanned stochastic volatility’ (USV) generates both realistic short rate volatility estimates and a good cross-sectional fit. Our findings suggest that short rate volatility cannot be extracted from the cross-section of bond prices. In particular, short rate volatility and convexity are only weakly correlated.     

Farmers’ crop insurance perception and participation decisions: empirical evidence from Hunan,China

The measurement of risk perception and risk attitudes, and their link to actual risk behaviors have been extensively discussed. However, the potential impact of perception of risk management instruments on the decision to use those instruments has rarely been addressed. This article hypothesizes that the degree of perception of insurance contracts and participation decisions could have substantial mutual influence depending on the development of the market. An empirical work is carried out based on a survey of data for paddy rice farmers in Hunan Province, China. It shows that the sampled farmers’ crop insurance perception was surprisingly low despite years of pilot programs and tens of billions of expenditure in government subsidies. The result of simultaneous equations model indicates that crop insurance perception and participation are simultaneously determined and mutually improving. Moreover, empirical evidence indicates that the impact of crop insurance participation on perception is slightly stronger than that of perception on participation, and thus provides weak evidence of a ‘learning-by-doing’ stage in China at present. Together with evidence of substantial local disparities in perception, implications for the Chinese government in further cultivating the crop and rural insurance market are discussed.     

Efficiency in private banking: evidence from Switzerland and Liechtenstein

This paper examines the technical efficiency of private banking institutions in Switzerland and Liechtenstein by means of data envelopment analysis (DEA). The average wealth manager’s relative inefficiency level is found to exceed 20% in most of the years between 2003–2007. Results also reveal that the average bank is well above its efficient scale of operations. Private banks from Liechtenstein fare better than their Swiss counterparts. Specialization and investment performance appear to be important factors in distinguishing efficient from inefficient institutions. The significance of these bank features, however, can be traced back to the worst performers in the sample. Bank size, capital strength, asset composition, network size, and ownership do not help answer the question of what constitutes an efficient wealth manager.     

Directors’ education and corporate liquidity: evidence from boards in Taiwan

This study relates a firm’s cash holdings and their value to the board of directors’ level of education. Using a sample of firms on the Taiwan Stock Exchange during the period from 2006 to 2012, we find that firms with a highly educated board tend to hold more cash and are associated with a higher value of cash. This fact is especially evident among financially constrained firms. Our findings suggest that highly educated boards provide more efficient monitoring and advisory functions, and thus complement corporate governance.     

Population Dynamics in East and West Germany—Projections to 2050

Original Papers

Population Dynamics in East and West Germany—Projections to 2050     

Can banks individually create money out of nothing? — The theories and the empirical evidence

This paper presents the first empirical evidence in the history of banking on the question of whether banks can create money out of nothing. The banking crisis has revived interest in this issue, but it had remained unsettled. Three hypotheses are recognised in the literature. According to the financial intermediation theory of banking, banks are merely intermediaries like other non-bank financial institutions, collecting deposits that are then lent out. According to the fractional reserve theory of banking, individual banks are mere financial intermediaries that cannot create money, but collectively they end up creating money through systemic interaction. A third theory maintains that each individual bank has the power to create money ‘out of nothing’ and does so when it extends credit (the credit creation theory of banking). The question which of the theories is correct has far-reaching implications for research and policy. Surprisingly, despite the longstanding controversy, until now no empirical study has tested the theories. This is the contribution of the present paper. An empirical test is conducted, whereby money is borrowed from a cooperating bank, while its internal records are being monitored, to establish whether in the process of making the loan available to the borrower, the bank transfers these funds from other accounts within or outside the bank, or whether they are newly created. This study establishes for the first time empirically that banks individually create money out of nothing. The money supply is created as ‘fairy dust’ produced by the banks individually, "out of thin air".     

Stability and change in management accounting over time—A century or so of evidence from Guinness

In recent years, much has been written on the nature of management accounting change, and indeed stability. Many researchers have used concepts such as rules and routines to interpret this change and/or stability. Recent research has provided an increasingly clear picture of what rules and routines are, as well as contributing to our understanding of the processes of change and stability in management accounting.Management accounting research has mainly presented rules and routines as related phenomena, but some conceptual work has suggested they are separable and can (and possibly should) be considered independently when studying processes of change/stability within management accounting. However, empirical support for such work has been scarce to date. This paper uses data from the archival records of the Guinness company in an effort to establish whether rules and routines, at least in management accounting research, are best considered separable concepts or not. The archival records are artefacts of rules and routines and thus can be used to trace the interactions of rules and routines over time. Support for the notion that rules and routines should be considered separately is presented. The findings also portray the stable, but changing, nature of management accounting routines over time; a point worthy of further research.     

A multi-organizational cross-sectoral collaboration: empirical evidence from an ‘Empty Homes’ project

This paper analyses the processes, outcomes and tensions of a cross-sectoral collaborative venture involving several organizations with multiple logics and is based on empirical evidence from a collaborative ‘Empty Homes’ project. While, paradoxically, multiple logics are a basis for the partnership's existence (for example ‘value for money’ and local community benefit) to achieve these different aims simultaneously, its other aims or logics at times conflicted, resulting in intra-partnership tensions. Hence we offer novel insights into the practical aspects of collaboration at a local level and on multi-organizational relationships.     

Who drives whom ‐ sukuk or bond? A new evidence from granger causality and wavelet approach

Sukuk is a highly appealing alternative instrument of conventional bond in the financial market over the last two decades. To a certain extent, the market players assume sukuk as the same as bond. However, sukuk has its own fundamental asset backed principles, whereas bond is backed by debt. The objective of the study is to examine the Granger‐causality and lead–lag relationship between sukuk and bond by using the data of the Malaysian Government securities return for both conventional and Islamic instruments. The data for every working day of 7 years covering the period from January 31, 2007 to December 31, 2013 were collected from Bloomberg database. The yield returns of both securities have been plotted for each six months of a year. This study applied both Granger‐causality and dynamic co‐movement techniques such as, continuous wavelet transforms (CWT) coherence for analyzing the temporal evolution of the frequency content of both securities by decomposing each period into different time scales. The empirical findings of the paper reveal that with a bit of exception, there is a causal relationship between sukuk securities and conventional bonds for a given period of time. For robustness, this study applied the wavelet coherence approach and found that bond is led by sukuk in the long term investment horizon rather than in the short term. Our findings relating to the lead‐lag relationship between sukuk and bonds have important implications in terms of policy regulations and investment management. Future research and market practices could reinvestigate the differences between these two securities across different markets and types.     

Devolved Government and Transport—Relationships,Process and Policy

This article explores the change in relationships taking place between the National Assembly for Wales and UK government. The context for this is the rationale, constituent elements and timespan of an integrated transport policy for Wales, and the author draws on evidence to, and reports from, the House of Commons, the National Assembly, the Wales Office and the report of the Richard Commission on the Assembly's powers. Wales can be seen as a case study of how devolution, and the development of transport policy in a devolved context, have progressed; it is argued that the principles apply to other devolved governments in the UK and elected assemblies.     

Stock–bond dependence and flight to/from quality

This paper investigates the stock–bond dependence structure using a dependence-switching copula model. The model allows stock–bond dependence to switch between positive dependence regimes (contagions or crashes of the two markets during downturns or booms in both markets during upturns) and negative dependence regimes (flight-to-quality from stock markets to bond markets or flight-from-quality from bond markets to stock markets). Using data from four developed markets including the US, Canada, Germany, and France for the period between January 1985 and August 2022, we find that the within-country stock–bond (extreme) dependence could be both positive and negative. In the positive dependence regimes, the stock–bond dependence is asymmetric with stronger left tail dependence than the right tail dependence, giving evidence of a higher likelihood of joint stock–bond market crashes or contagions during market downturns than the collective stock–bond market booms. Under the negative dependence regimes, we find both flight-from-quality and flight-to-quality, with flight-to-quality being more dominant in the North American markets while flight-from-quality is more prominent in the European markets. Further, the dependence switches between positive and negative regimes over time. Moreover, the dependence is mainly in the positive regimes before 2000 while mostly in the negative regimes after that, indicating contagions mostly before 2000 and flights afterwards. Further, the dependence switches between positive and negative regimes around financial crises and the COVID-19 pandemic. These results greatly enrich the findings in the existing literature on the co-movements of stock–bond markets and are important for risk management and asset pricing.     

Demand–supply imbalances in the credit default swap market: empirical evidence

This paper empirically examines demand–supply imbalances in the credit default swap (CDS) market and provides evidence of its effect on the CDS spread dynamics. Analysis is conducted on a large and homogenous data set of the 92 non-financial European companies with the most quoted Euro-denominated CDS contracts during the 2002–2008 period. Main findings indicate that short-term CDS price movements, not related to fundamentals, are positively affected by demand–supply imbalances when protection buyers outstrip protection sellers. Results illustrate that CDS spreads reflect not only the price of credit protection, but also a liquidity premium for the anticipated cost of unwinding the position of protection sellers, especially during stress periods.     

Employment and wage effects of a payroll-tax cut—evidence from a regional experiment

In this paper, we evaluate the effects of a regional experiment that reduced payroll taxes by 3–6 percentage points for 3 years in northern Finland. We match each firm in the target region with a similar firm in a comparison region and estimate the effect of the payroll tax reduction by comparing employment and wage changes within the matched pairs before and after the start of the experiment. According to our results, the reduction in the payroll taxes led to an increase in wages in the target region. The point estimates indicate that the increase in wages offset roughly half of the impact of the payroll tax cut on the labor costs. The remaining labor cost reduction had no significant effects on employment.