How (not) to talk about the uncertain: siting geological disposal for highly radioactive waste in the Czech Republic

There is an ongoing controversy in the Czech Republic over where to site a deep geological repository for the country’s radioactive waste. Recently, the negotiations between municipalities and state authorities responsible for radioactive waste management experienced a sharp turn: after several years of dialogue guaranteed by the promise of the state authorities not to start site investigations at preselected sites without the consent of affected municipalities, the state authorities suddenly decided not to keep this promise, and to start site investigations without the municipalities’ consent, saying that time for dialogue will come after the site investigations will have been completed. This article explores the period of the failed dialogue with respect to how risks and uncertainties were treated in the negotiations. Drawing on two strands of scholarship on risk and uncertainty, the risk governance school and the STS perspectives on sociotechnical controversies, two paradigms for dealing with risk and uncertainty are outlined. These are used as a framework to analyse how implementers and local stakeholders articulated possible risk or uncertainty issues in negotiations about the Czech geological disposal between 2009 and 2013. The analysis shows that whereas the implementers adopt (sometimes even an extreme version of) the risk-based paradigm, the positions of the local stakeholders seem to be mixed. These observations lead to two conclusions: first, at the theoretical level, perhaps some of the STS literature was too quick to assume that people ‘want’ uncertainty. Second, at the practical level, it is suggested that in the light of the failed dialogue, it might be worth for the implementers to take a lesson from the uncertainty-based paradigm, and consider the possibility that perhaps still more work needs to be done in order to turn uncertainty into risk.     

From risk to the government of uncertainty: the case of mobile telephony

Confronted with complex and wicked issues, public authorities turn to science and expertise to provide answers that will help reduce the level of uncertainty that characterizes these issues. Yet, the paper argues that more often than not, it is the application of a risk framework to a given issue that fosters uncertainty, not the other way round. Hence, the more authorities and experts attempt to apply a risk approach to an issue, the more they encourage the production of uncertainty. Taking mobile telephony as a case in point, the paper then goes on to show that to reduce uncertainties, authorities in some countries have recently experimented with new forms of knowledge in the process of expertise; paradoxically, this may raise in a first moment the general level of uncertainty, but it may also provide in the longer term more robust knowledge. The larger aim of the paper is to expand conceptions of uncertainty commonly used in risk governance.     

Public reception of scientific uncertainty in the endocrine disrupter controversy: the case of male fertility

Scientific controversies are associated with significant uncertainty. Despite this uncertainty, available knowledge must be communicated to the public, who are potentially at risk. There are contradictions in the existing literature about the value of communicating uncertainty associated with science. Some scientists and decision-makers believe that communicating uncertainty to the public will produce panic and confusion, and will discredit science. Others believe that uncertainty must be communicated to increase trust in science. We tested reactions to communication about uncertainty related to the controversial link between exposure to endocrine disrupters and a decline in human male fertility. Our empirical setup used focus groups and qualitative analysis of participants’ perceived uncertainty and their emotions. The results show that laypeople raise more and different uncertainties than those communicated by researchers. Moreover, laypeople did not react to uncertainty ‘globally;’ they had different reactions to the different sources of uncertainty. Uncertainty did not elicit panic in this case study. Rather, uncertainty was reassuring, except when it was associated with an inability to precisely identify and, therefore, control the cause of male reproductive disorders. We discuss the emotions expressed and their relationships with communication about scientific uncertainty (powerlessness, guilt, outrage, etc.). We also note that feelings of confusion increase after uncertainty has been communicated.     

Global uncertainties and portfolio flow dynamics of the BRICS countries

This paper investigates the dynamics of bond and stock market capital flows to BRICS countries under uncertainties such as global economic policy uncertainty and the US trade policy uncertainty. We use a time-varying Granger causality framework over the January 2008-November 2019 period to analyze the predictive power of uncertainties on capital flows in the form of bond and equity. The results show that the effects are heterogeneous across countries and stronger during the Global Financial Crisis period and post-2018 period while it lost its significance in the subsequent period. The negative influence of uncertainties on capital flows directed to BRICS countries is also evident in the results of non-parametric time-varying panel models. Overall, it is thought that the heterogeneous structure of the causality between uncertainty and portfolio flows into BRICS may present portfolio diversification benefits for global investors.     

Oil market uncertainty and excess returns on currency carry trade

This paper examines the role of oil market uncertainty on currency carry trade payoffs. We find that oil market uncertainty can impact currency carry trade excess returns. When oil market uncertainty rises, expected currency excess returns will increase. Our findings are robust to alternative measures of oil market uncertainty and, after controlling for traditional uncertainties, different types of oil shocks. The results also hold well in both developed and emerging markets, as well as for oil-related currencies, non-oil currencies, commodity currencies, and non-commodity currencies. Additionally, oil market uncertainty can be priced in the cross section of currency carry trade excess returns. This effect can be explained by investors becoming more risk averse under high oil market uncertainty and requiring greater compensation for bearing such risk. Moreover, our measure of oil market uncertainty, the downside risk from the oil market, is quite different from that of traditional aggregate measures.     

Genetic risk information

Risk information and communication of health risks play a large role in medicine. With the growing importance of genetics and genomics in medicine, the importance of risk communication will even increase in the future. This paper starts with a discussion on the concept of medical risk information and then focusses on genetic risk information. Three examples of genetic risk information are discussed (carrier testing, susceptibility testing and pharmacogenomics testing) in order to exemplify the broad variety of types of risk information and their specific challenges for medical counselling.     

Knowledge management in enterprises: a research agenda

Knowledge management (KM) is an emerging area, which is gaining interest by both enterprises and academics. The effective implementation of a KM strategy is considering as a ‘must’ and as a precondition of success for contemporary enterprises, as they enter the era of the knowledge economy. However, the field of KM has been slow in formulating a universally accepted methodology, due to the many pending issues that have to be addressed. This paper attempts to propose a novel taxonomy for KM research by co‐instantaneously presenting the current status with some major themes of KM research. The discussion presented on these issues should be of value to researchers and practitioners. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Macroeconomic uncertainty and corporate liquidity: the Indian case

Interest in the uncertainties prevailing at the macroeconomic level has always been well known in economic literature. This article analyses the effect of firm level and macroeconomic uncertainty on the decisions of Indian firms with regard to their optimal cash holdings. Using a dynamic panel data model, the study finds strong support for the hypothesis that Indian firms increase their cash holdings with an increase in either form of uncertainty. Also, results for the sub-samples show that middle-aged and middle-sized firms are most affected by variations in macroeconomic uncertainty.     

Roland W. Scholz: Environmental Literacy in Science and Society. From Knowledge to Decisions. Cambridge University Press 2011

This study pursues the following aims: to examine how news stories use frames, emotions, and uncertainty to present environmental risk information; to identify which aspects of risk issues they highlight; and to analyze how these stories’ representations of risk and uncertainty might differ according to the sources they use. Content analysis of 641 news stories in South Korea over the last decade yields three findings: (1) reassurance was the most frequently used news frame, while uncertainty and emotion were used less often than expected; (2) news stories using government/industry/experts as sources vs. activists/lay people highlighted different news frames and risk information; and (3) the two most frequently used uncertainty presentation formats were single point estimate and verbal estimate. This study contributes to existing literature on the roles of media in environmental risk communication in two ways. First, it examines the specific formats journalists use to present uncertainty about risks. Second, it integrates news frames with the emotional characteristics of risk communication and with differences in risk information characteristics according to source. Implications are discussed regarding how a better understanding of news representations of risk could inform and enhance cooperation between experts and journalists, and lead to more effective environmental risk communication. Finally, this content analysis provides a stepping stone for future research that could further investigate and test how publics respond to risk messages that have varying permutations of emotional content and risk presentation formats.     

Practical cancer genetics, genomics and proteomics

Functional genomics is the science that defines the function of newly identified genes and translates this knowledge into related health and disease. Functional genomics is complex, involving multiple scientific disciplines including computational biology, genetics, physiology, structural biology, and molecular and cell biology. Due to its inherent complexity, the National Institutes of Health (NIH) has termed functional genomics "the science of collaboration." This paper will review microarray gene expression analysis, proteomics, and the impact of molecular medical genetics on medical care.     

Uncertainty and R&D investment: Does product market competition matter?

In recent years, the question of how uncertainty influences corporate decisions has received greater interest among academics, researchers, and corporations. This study is an attempt to investigate how uncertainties (firm-specific uncertainty (fsu), market-based uncertainty (mu), and economic policy uncertainty (epu)) influence research and development (R&D) investment and to further examine whether this relation is moderated by product market competition across firms of different sizes. Using a sample of Chinese listed firms covering 2000–2017, this study applies a two-step system GMM model to perform estimations and control for endogeneity issues. The findings show that uncertainties (fsu, mu, and epu) negatively influence R&D investment and that this negative relationship is more prominent for firms operating in competitive industries. In concentrated industries, however, the negative impact of uncertainty is mitigated for large firms, which have more internal resources and better access to external financing. This study contributes to real options theory by illustrating how different forms of uncertainty embedded in a firm’s internal and external environment reduce R&D investment, and by indicating how this relationship is moderated by product market competition.     

Nominal uncertainty,real uncertainty and macroeconomic performance in a time-varying asymmetric framework: Implications for monetary policy

This study examines the dynamic causal links and volatility spillovers of inflation, output growth and their uncertainties in four South Asian countries, namely, Pakistan, India, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka by utilizing asymmetric GARCH family models. Our empirical evidence supports a number of important conclusions. There is an overwhelming support for Friedman-Ball hypothesis of positive inflation-uncertainty trade-off for all countries excluding India and Sri Lanka. The Cukierman-Meltzer’s idea that inflation uncertainty generates inflation, hold for Bangladesh and Sri Lanka only and the Holland’s hypothesis of negative influence of inflation uncertainty on level inflation is supported by India only. The positive influence of output uncertainty on inflation (Devereux (1989) hypothesis) is supported by all countries excluding Bangladesh while nominal uncertainty (real uncertainty) has negative (positive) effect on output growth in Pakistan (Bangladesh). Output growth is reducing real uncertainty in all countries excluding Sri Lanka and nominal uncertainty in Pakistan only. There is significant negative relationship between inflation and output growth for Pakistan only while real uncertainty is positively (negatively) related with nominal uncertainty in India (Bangladesh). The estimated results are almost robust with the simultaneous estimation procedure for testing the main hypotheses. In general, there is asymmetric effect and persistence of the GARCH parameters for all countries. The study suggests that the concerned central banks should pay more attention to the effects of macroeconomic uncertainty and should focus their monetary policy strategy on stabilizing both output growth and inflation.     

How Do Market Prices and Cheap Talk Affect Coordination?

In many scenarios such as banking and liquidity crises, inefficiencies often arise because investors face uncertainties about economic fundamentals and the strategies of other investors. How information affects fundamental uncertainty is well studied, but how information affects strategic uncertainty is underexplored. This paper examines how two communication mechanisms, market and cheap talk, affect investment decisions and efficiency in an experimental investment game with both fundamental and strategic uncertainty. I find that the market does not improve coordination because the expectation that coordination failures will occur is self‐fulfilling, while cheap talk improves coordination because the signals of willingness to invest alleviate strategic uncertainty.     

Ecological risk assessment of pesticides in the EU: what factors and groups influence policy changes?

For the last couple of years, European environmental risk assessment (ERA) regulations have undergone significant changes. The new 1107/2009 directive which came into effect in 2011 has triggered an on-going debate on defining specific protection goals for ERA. During this period, we conducted a study on policy change among the most influential ERA stakeholders from Europe. We interviewed 43, purposively sampled, participants from the European safety authorities, plant protection product industry and academia. Transcribed interviews underwent thematic analysis conducted separately by two coders. As we followed the advocacy coalition framework, our findings focus on stakeholders’ processes, interrelations and values behind the ERA policy change. The main challenges emerging from our analysis turned out to be the slow uptake of scientific developments into ERA and very broadly defined protection goals. The use of safety factors and cut-off criteria left risk assessors with many uncertainties. With ERA in its current form it turned out to be impossible to determine whether the current scheme is over- or under-protective. Still, the study shows that the problem of over- or under-protectiveness lies deep in the perception of stakeholders and depends greatly on their priorities. Academics strive for better ecological relevance as a priority. They have concerns that ERA is oversimplified. Regulators worry that ERA relies too much on risk mitigation and is possibly not protective enough, but at the same time, the majority believes that the assessment is well established and straightforward to follow. Industry representatives would like to see ERA based more on probabilistic risk assessment. Recent changes, according to risk assessment and management practitioners have led to an inevitable increase in complexity, which is not perceived as a positive thing, and does not necessarily translate into better risk assessment.     

Insurance and economic policy uncertainty

Just as the world has witnessed the increased importance of the insurance sector over the past few decades, it has also witnessed a sharp rise in risks and uncertainties. Surprisingly, studies analyzing the relationship between economic policy uncertainty and the insurance sector are almost non-existent. Another major limitation of insurance literature is the choice of methodology. Most studies on the insurance sector do not take into consideration issues of heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence, and are therefore subject to errors. To address the identified gaps, this research investigates the impact of economic policy uncertainty on insurance premiums in a panel of 15 countries over the period 1998–2016 by employing heterogeneous panel estimation techniques with cross-sectional dependence. The Durbin-Hausman cointegration tests of Westerlund (2008) confirm that a long-run relationship exists between the variables. Findings from the error correction based panel estimations show that the insurance sector is not immune to the effects of economic policy uncertainty. Economic policy uncertainty raises insurance premiums both in the short and long run, although the long-run impact is greater than the short-run impact. In addition, economic policy uncertainty exerts a bigger influence on non-life insurance premium than on life insurance premium, indicating that the economic risks covered by non-life insurance are more sensitive to uncertainty than the mortality and longevity risks covered by life insurance. Our findings further show that national income, education, population, financial development and institutional quality all raise insurance premiums, while inflation lowers insurance premiums.     

Uncertainty and Financing Constraints

Using a panel of Dutch listed firms this paper provides empirical evidence for the hypothesis that more risky firms are confronted with more severe capital market constraints than relatively less risky firms. The paper also contributes to the discussion on the usefulness of cash flow as a measure of financial constraints. We present a stochastic version of the Kaplan-Zingales (1997) model. We show that cash flow sensitivity can be used as a meaningful indicator of financing constraints if firms are classified by the degree of uncertainty they face and if the uncertainty originates from cost uncertainty.     

Knowing a winning business idea when you see one

Identifying which business ideas have real commercial potential is fraught with uncertainty, and even the most admired companies have stumbled. It's not as if they don't know what the challenges of innovation are. A new product has to offer customers exceptional utility at an attractive price, and the company must be able to deliver it at a tidy profit. But the uncertainties surrounding innovation are so great that even the most insightful managers have a hard time evaluating the commercial readiness of new business ideas. In this article, W. Chan Kim and Renée Mauborgne introduce three tools that managers can use to help strip away some of that uncertainty. The first tool, "the buyer utility map," indicates how likely it is that customers will be attracted to a new business idea. The second, "the price corridor of the mass," identifies what price will unlock the greatest number of customers. And the third tool, "the business model guide," offers a framework for figuring out whether and how a company can profitably deliver the new idea at the targeted price. Applying the tools, though, is not the end of the story. Many innovations have to overcome adoption hurdles--strong resistance from stakeholders inside and outside the company. Often overlooked in the planning process, adoption hurdles can make or break the commercial viability of even the most powerful new ideas. The authors conclude by discussing how managers can head off negative reactions from stakeholders.     

Environmental uncertainty and the market pricing of earnings smoothness

Environmental uncertainty induces variability in an organization's reported earnings, and accentuates the information asymmetry between its managers and outside stakeholders. Managers operating in an environment of high uncertainty, therefore, have an incentive to reduce such variability by smoothing income numbers. We investigate the stock market response to earnings smoothness for firms operating in an environment of high uncertainty. We measure income smoothing by the negative correlation of a firm's change in discretionary accruals with its change in pre-managed earnings as per Tucker and Zarowin (2006). Using future earnings response coefficient (FERC) methodology to measure the informativeness of smoothed earnings, and two measures of environmental uncertainty, this paper documents that current stock price incorporates more information about future earnings for firms operating in high uncertain environments, thus supporting the informational value view of income smoothing.     

Poxvirus‐vectored Vaccines Call for Application of the Precautionary Principle

Genetically engineered viruses (GEVs) used as live vaccines are, and will increasingly become, important for prevention of disease in human as well as animal populations. Poxviruses have a number of attractive theoretical and practical advantages as gene expressing vaccine vectors: their large genomes render construction of multivalent vaccines feasible, the vaccines are easy to produce, the virus particles are very thermostable, and inoculation is followed by long‐lasting, protective immune responses. On the other hand, administration and environmental release of GEVs may represent potential unintended harms to human, animal and ecosystem health. We will argue that a strict application of risk‐cost/benefit analyses do not cope appropriately with the current lack of scientific understanding and the complexity of ecosystems that will become GEV recipients, and fail to take into account the deeper ethical groundings that shape the scientific and public opinions. To avoid serious, unintended ecological effects of GEVs, it may be necessary to elaborate the ethical basis for protecting health and the environment. The Precautionary Principle (PP) may provide a basis for adequate consideration of ecological and ethical issues of vital importance to protection of health and environment from unforeseen adverse effects of poxvirus‐vectored vaccines. To operationalise the PP, we suggest that there is a need to identify and systematise lack of scientific understanding, and to acknowledge uncertainty by initiating research with a broad focus involving interdisciplinary research. In this paper we present three main issues related to the employment of the PP: i) identification of scientific uncertainty and its ethical significance in risk assessment and risk management processes, ii) the need for broad risk assessment as a response to scientific uncertainty, and iii) the need for transparency and public involvement to enhance the debate about normative standards concerning acceptability of benefits, risks and uncertainty with regard to GEV use and release.