产品定价的排队博弈分析

产品定价是企业经营决策的重要内容之一,利用排队博弈的方法分析企业定价策略是最近几年发展起来的一种新思想。本文研究了在双寡头竞争的市场条件下,企业产品最优定价的排队博弈模型,分析了产品价格与成本、质量和交易等待成本之间的关系,推导出最优定价策略的纳什均衡解。最后给出了一家企业的产品最优定价实例。     

Queuing with balking and reneging in M|G|1 systems

Summary AM|G|1 queuing process in which units balk with a constant probability (1−β) and renege according to a negative exponential distribution has been considered. The busy period process is first investigated making use of the supplementary variable technique and discrete transforms. The expression for the joint distribution of the number of customers serviced during a busy period and the length of the busy period has been derived. FollowingGaver (1959) the general process is investigated and making use of renewal theory the ergodic properties of the general process have been studied. It has been shown that as long as reneging is permitted (α>0), the steady states always exist, but when no reneging is permitted (α=0), the steady states exist only whenλ β η<1.     

Balking and reneging in M/G/1 systems with post-ponable interruptions

Summary This paper considers the effect of postponable interruptions on aM/G/1 queueing process where customers balk with probabilityn/N (n=0, 1, 2, …,N) and renege after having waited for a random length of time. The busy period process in which transitions from any state (m, n) to any other state are permitted without an intermediate passage to the empty state, is investigated employing the supplementary variable method and discrete transforms. Later, the general process in which busy periods alternate with idle periods has been discussed in terms of the busy period process and renewal distributions and finally the ergodic properties of the general process studied by appealing to some results of renewal theory.     

Queueing problems with arrivals in general stresm and phase type service

This paper deals with the steady state behaviour of a discrete time, single channel, first-come-first-served queueing problem wherein the service phases at two consecutive time-marks are correlated but the arrivals occur in General Stream. Probability Generating functions for the number of phases are obtained under two different models each with assumption that the service phases at two consecutive time marks are (i) correlated and (ii) uncorrelated. For each case the mean queue lengths when the number of phases demanded by an arriving unit is one, are derived. Some particular cases are discussed.     

匹配排队网络模型及其忙期算法

本文讨论了匹配排队网络模型ＰＨ／Ｍ／ｃ→○ＰＨ／ＰＨ／１的忙期,给出第一子系统忙期的概率分布函数及其ＬＳ变换,并给出其算法。最后,给出了此算法的算例。这种排队模型可以用于研究海港中大型货轮的各种货物合理匹配装卸等问题。     

The M/G/∞ Queueing Model for Optimistic Concurrency Control

The M / G /∞ queue with Optimistic Concurrency Control (OCC) is a model for a special form of parallel transaction processing in a real-time database. Transactions arrive according to a Poisson process and require some generally distributed execution time. One of the differences with ordinary multi- and infinite-server queueing models is that under OCC the successful completion of one transaction may immediately cause the failure of one or more of the other transactions. This happens if the completing transaction has overwritten a data-item that is in use by another transaction in progress. As soon as this failure is detected the failed transaction is restarted. So the total service time of a transaction consists of its final successful run and the time spent on unsuccessful runs.
In this study we develop an approximation for the distribution of the total service time, and test the approximation against simulation. Although in practice the number of servers is never unlimited, this study provides valuable insight in the asymptotics with respect to the number of servers. The approximation clearly demonstrates the very limited performance gain from an increase of the number of servers.     

我国电信行业企业间价格博弈分析

目前,我国电信行业在国家指导下,以为适应新的市场环境,提高行业内部竞争力为目的,进行了较大力度的体制改革。但在我国电信市场中,市场竞争还很不规范,过渡的价格竞争已经显现,不利于我国电信的健康成长。本文使用博弈论的方法,结合电信行业的特性和我国电信行业的特点。探讨了引发企业间价格战的原因。并通过伯川德模型,进一步探讨了企业间的市场竞争,给出了实施企业产品差异化,构筑企业核心竞争力、合理规划行业企业数量是解决我国电信市场不合理竞争的有效方法的建议。     

Indirect inference with time series observed with error

We propose the indirect inference estimator as a consistent method to estimate the parameters of a structural model when the observed series are contaminated by measurement error by considering the noise as a structural feature. We show that the indirect inference estimates are asymptotically biased if the error is neglected. When the condition for identification is satisfied, the structural and measurement error parameters can be consistently estimated. The issues of identification and misspecification of measurement error are discussed in detail. We illustrate the reliability of this procedure in the estimation of stochastic volatility models based on realized volatility measures contaminated by microstructure noise.     

Forecasting with news sentiment: Evidence with UK newspapers

We investigate the performance of newspapers for forecasting inflation, output and unemployment in the United Kingdom. We concentrate on whether the economic policy content reported in popular printed media can improve on existing point forecasts. We find no evidence supporting improved nowcasts or short-term forecasts for inflation. The sentiment inferred from printed media, can however be useful for forecasting unemployment and output. Considerable improvements are also noted when using individual newspapers and keyword based indices.     

Multiple comparisons with the best,with economic applications

In this paper we discuss a statistical method called multiple comparisons with the best, or MCB. Suppose that we have N populations, and population i has parameter value θ_i. Let $\theta _{(N)}={\rm max}_{i=1,\ldots ,N}\theta _{i}$\nopagenumbers\end , the parameter value for the ‘best’ population. Then MCB constructs joint confidence intervals for the differences $[\theta _{(N)}‐\theta _{1},\theta _{(N)}‐\theta _{2},\ldots ,\theta _{(N)}‐\theta _{N}]$\nopagenumbers\end . It is not assumed that it is known which population is best, and part of the problem is to say whether any population is so identified, at the given confidence level. This paper is meant to introduce MCB to economists. We discuss possible uses of MCB in economics. The application that we treat in most detail is the construction of confidence intervals for inefficiency measures from stochastic frontier models with panel data. We also consider an application to the analysis of labour market wage gaps. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Equilibrium with coordination

The obvious equilibrium concepts in the simplest institutions for transferring ownership of commodities—bilateral exchange—are neither Nash equilibria nor cooperative equilibria. To study such equilibria as special cases of equilibria of a social system it is necessary to introduce coordination. Two or more agents coordinate their actions, if, when they consider an alternative to a state, they take as given—for agents with whom they coordinate—the alternative state. If there is no coordination we obtain Nash equilibrium as a special case. If there is complete coordination we obtain optimality as a special case. The main result is an existence theorem for a social system with coordination. This theorem is then applied to prove existence of exchange equilibria in an economy with bilateral exchange.     

Spanning with indexes

This paper presents several approximation theorems of a general contingent claim in terms of index options. We demonstrate that any contingent claim on the primitive securities in an infinite state economy can be approximated arbitrarily close by a portfolio of index options. In addition, these index options are associated with the same payout function, which belongs to a large and explicit class of one-variable measurable functions. I also characterize the layer structure of a general contingent claim.     

Contests with investment

Perfectly discriminating contests (all pay auctions) are widely used as a model of situations where individuals devote resources to win some prize. In reality such contests are often preceded by investments of the contestants into their ability to fight in the contest. This paper studies a two stage game where in the first stage, players can invest to lower their bid cost in a perfectly discriminating contest, which is played in the second stage. Different assumptions on the timing of investment are studied. With simultaneous investments, equilibria in which players play a pure strategy in the investment stage are asymmetric, exhibit incomplete rent dissipation, and expected effort is reduced relative to the game without investment. There also are symmetric mixed strategy equilibria with complete rent dissipation. With sequential investment, the first mover always invests enough to deter the second mover from investing, and enjoys a first mover advantage. I also look at unobservable investments and endogenous timing of investments. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Econometrics with Octave

GNU Octave is an open‐source implementation of a (mostly Matlab compatible) high‐level language for numerical computations. This review briefly introduces Octave, discusses applications of Octave in an econometric context, and illustrates how to extend Octave with user‐supplied C++ code. Several examples are provided. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

面对复杂的规划

中国在过去40年来的改革开放政策指导下,城市发展及建设的工作取得了举世瞩目的成就。然而,有关城市发展中计划(plans)产生现象及效果的解释包罗万象,从土地开发个案到城市发展;从个人到团体;从私部门到公部门;从个体行为到社会选择以及从空间形态到社会结构,等等,不胜枚举,此皆为广义规划(planning)逻辑所欲解释的现象。中国的规划界目前最欠缺的是适合解决快速城镇化所带来城市问题的基础规划理论。如何有系统地及严谨地解释这些规划现象,将是中国未来规划研究的一大挑战。随着复杂科学渐趋成熟以及规划逻辑逐渐形成,论述这两大知识体系的关系,进而提出适合在中国文化生根的复杂学派,作为朝此规划研究方向迈进的一个尝试。     

Forecasting with trees

The prevalence of approaches based on gradient boosted trees among the top contestants in the M5 competition is potentially the most eye-catching result. Tree-based methods out-shone other solutions, in particular deep learning-based solutions. The winners in both tracks of the M5 competition heavily relied on them. This prevalence is even more remarkable given the dominance of other methods in the literature and the M4 competition. This article tries to explain why tree-based methods were so widely used in the M5 competition. We see possibilities for future improvements of tree-based models and then distill some learnings for other approaches, including but not limited to neural networks.     

Coping with Autonomy

Abstract

The question examined in this article is how decentralization of power and responsibilities in public administration affects the interaction between bureaucrats and politicians. Three factors were identified as potential predictors: executive authority; the nature of administrative decision making; and the nature of the relationship between bureaucrats and union officials. Data were collected through a survey administered to ninety-eight senior bureaucrats at the county level in Norway. Correlation and hierarchical regression analyses revealed that the character of the relationship between bureaucrats and union officials had the greatest impact on the interaction between bureaucrats and politicians. The more trustful the relationship, the less the interaction, while the stronger the dependency of bureaucrats on unions, the more intensive the interaction. Decision making that involves negotiations increased interaction, as did the bureaucrats' perception of themselves as clearly superior to their staff – as opposed to a perception of themselves as being in an advisory position.