Climate and agricultural risk: measuring the effect of ENSO on U.S. crop insurance

Predictive models of climatic phenomena can aid in insurance program design and decision making. Extreme weather outcomes have been linked to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which globally impacts agricultural production. This study demonstrates that extreme ENSO events alter cotton yield distributions in the Southeastern United States. These impacts translate into economically meaningful effects on crop insurance premium rates. Commercial insurers can use publicly available information to determine if government‐set premium rates are mispriced, and in turn extract economic rents via the federally mandated Standard Reinsurance Agreement. By ceding underpriced policies in El Niño and La Niña years, we find that private insurance companies can reduce paid indemnities by 10–15% on average.     

Does crop insurance influence agrochemical uses under current Chinese situations? A case study in the Manasi watershed,Xinjiang

Government subsidy to crop insurance has been advocated as a policy alternative to support growth of agricultural production and farmers' income in China since the country joined the WTO. However, cautions have been raised as the crop insurance program may impact the environment negatively. This study tries to explore farmers' behaviors with regard to agrochemical use with household data applied to a simultaneous equation system consisting of disaggregated input models. It is found that decisions on fertilizer, pesticides, and agro‐film applications do have different impacts on crop insurance participation, and are influenced by the latter in different ways. It is also implied that encouraging farmers' participation in crop insurance under current low‐premium and low‐indemnity terms does not have a significantly negative impact on the environment.     

Effects of subsidized crop insurance on crop choices

This study focuses on how subsidized crop insurance affects crop choices. Crop insurance may change farm investments by reducing risks and providing subsidies. First, actuarially fair insurance reduces risks in crop production and marketing, holding the expected return constant. Second, insurance subsidies encourage farms to purchase crop insurance, which increases the expected return to insured risky crops. Farms also have many self‐insurance mechanisms such as crop diversification or working off the farm. We derive conditions under which (1) unsubsidized and actuarially fair crop insurance or (2) insurance premium subsidies lead to more investment in a risky higher return crop. We then examine the role of self‐insurance for these conditions. The impact of premium subsidies is decomposed into a direct profit effect and an indirect coverage effect. These effects are explained by substitutions between market insurance and self‐insurance and between a risky crop and a safe crop. We discuss each effect as a combination of subsidy and risk effects. Numerical illustrations show that an insurance subsidy has a larger impact on risky crop investments compared to that of an input subsidy when farms are more risk‐averse and have high costs of self‐insurance. The framework provides a novel way to evaluate subsidized crop insurance programs.     

The impacts of multiperil crop insurance on Indonesian rice farmers and production

This article analyzes the effect of multiperil crop insurance policy for risk‐averse Indonesian rice farmers located in Tuban and Gresik Regencies of the East Java Province. Based on the model, comparative static analysis of a change in policy variables (coverage levels and premium subsidies) on input use through the coupling, wealth, and insurance effects are presented. The comparative static results are largely ambiguous and left as empirical questions. Consequently, the model is numerically simulated to quantify the effects of different coverage levels and subsidy rates on input use, expected net insurance payments, and certainty equivalents. The empirical analysis shows that MPCI crop insurance results in a decline in expected yield for coverage levels above about 82.5% for both regencies. Furthermore, higher subsidy rates amplify the reduction in input use and yield. Therefore, incomplete coverage with relatively low premium subsidies is the best policy to minimize the impact on input use and yield. However, from the farmers’ perspective, the optimal policy combination results from the highest coverage level and subsidy, which offer the largest expected net insurance payments and certainty equivalent.     

Demand for temperature and rainfall index insurance in India

Weather index insurance has been attracting considerable attention from academics and policymakers. This study investigates the demand for two types of index insurance sold in India: temperature index insurance for dry season and rainfall index insurance for subsequent monsoon season. Using data from randomized subsidy experiments, we separate purchase and quantity decisions and investigate how demand for rainfall insurance is correlated with demand for temperature insurance sold in the previous season. We find that the price (premium) does not influence purchase decisions per se but does significantly influence quantity decisions. The quantity demanded is less price‐sensitive for subsequent rainfall insurance than it is for temperature insurance. We also find that purchasers of temperature insurance tend to buy rainfall insurance more often than nonpurchasers do. However, a one‐time subsidy does not influence on subsequent demand, suggesting no price‐anchoring effect.     

Demand for a labor‐based drought insurance scheme in Ethiopia: a stated choice experiment approach

Index‐based weather insurance is increasingly used to manage weather‐related risks in smallholder agriculture. However, cash‐constrained smallholders often lack the resources to pay an insurance premium, which may undermine its wider adoption. This article investigates alternative insurance payment methods that may help to enhance the adoption of index‐based weather insurance. We use a choice experiment to elicit smallholders’ willingness to pay in cash or labor for index‐based weather insurance in four districts in the south‐central highlands of Ethiopia. The insurance schemes were created using a fractional factorial design with three factors: work, cash, and payout rate. We analyze the choice data using a random parameter mixed logit model. We find that the average participants need a subsidy to pay cash for insurance because their willingness to pay is less than the expected cost of the insurance. On average, they are willing to pay only 0.81 ETB (Ethiopian currency) to get an expected yearly payout of 1 ETB. However, most are willing to participate in work‐for‐insurance programs at lower daily wage rates than is common for other work programs in Ethiopia.     

我国农机保险财政补贴方案研究

农机保险的正外部性与有效需求不足表明了实施农机保险财政补贴的必要性,文章结合现有补贴试点地区实践经验与数据,利用统计优化思想与系统分析方法对农机保险方案中的补贴机型、保险费率与保障金额、补贴比率与补贴金额等问题进行了研究。主要结论如下:(1)农机保险财政补贴的主要机型应该是拖拉机与联合收割机,允许部分地区开展特色农机保险;(2)补贴险种应该主要是交强险、第三者责任险、农机操作人员意外伤害险及农机损失险,综合试点地区费率水平确定了各险种的保费与保障金额;(3)基于财政收入水平、粮食产量、人均收入水平、农业保险补贴比率现状、粮食主产区划分等因素,确定了三类补贴区域及补贴比率,分别为35%、40%及45%;(4)测算了参与率分别在30%~100%情况下的补贴金额为21.7亿元与72.5亿元之间,其中最有可能参与率的补贴金额为42.7亿元。研究结果对相关部门推动农机保险开展与制定农机保险财政补贴政策,具有重要参考依据。     

Wage and employment effects of Malawi's fertilizer subsidy program

This article uses three waves of nationally representative household‐level panel data from Malawi to estimate how a large‐scale fertilizer subsidy program impacts the agricultural labor market, known as ganyu in that country. I find that when looking across the entire population of smallholders, receiving an additional 100 kg of subsidized fertilizer causes the average household to supply about three fewer days of ganyu. The fertilizer subsidy program also has a small positive effect on the probability that a household demands agricultural labor, with the results approaching statistical significance. In addition, a 10 kg increase in the average amount of subsidized fertilizer acquired per household in a community boosts the median agricultural wage rate by 1.4% in that community. The increase in wage rates translates to a US $1.40 per year increase in average household income in the years after Malawi's subsidy program was scaled up, and a US $1.86 per year increase in average household income for those who sold their labor before the subsidy program was scaled up. This finding suggests that households who sell their labor off farm may experience some small spillover benefit from the program in the form of higher agricultural wage rates.     

Impact of CAP Subsidies on Technical Efficiency of Crop Farms in Germany,the Netherlands and Sweden

This paper analyses the impacts of CAP reforms, particularly subsidies on technical efficiency of crop farms. An output distance function is employed and estimated together with an inefficiency effects model to capture the effects of CAP subsidies and farmer characteristics on farm efficiency. The model is applied to FADN data (period 1995–2004) of crop farms in Germany, the Netherlands and Sweden. The study shows that the 10‐year average technical efficiency is 64% in Germany, 76% in the Netherlands and 71% in Sweden. The average annual changes in technical efficiency are 0.1%, 0.4% and 2.3%, respectively. The share of crop subsidies in total subsidies has a negative impact on technical efficiency in Germany but a positive impact in Sweden, although insignificant in the Netherlands. The share of total subsidies in total farm revenues has negative impacts on technical efficiency in all three countries, consistent with income and insurance effects. Positive (negative) change in technical efficiency is mainly attributable to farm size (degree of specialisation) in Germany, and degree of specialisation (degree of subsidy dependence) in the Netherlands and Sweden.     

Land use and economic effects of alternative biofuel policies in Brazil and the United States

Being the two largest ethanol producers in the world, biofuel policies in Brazil and the United States affect both their domestic markets and the global food and biofuel economy. In this article we develop a price endogenous mathematical programming model to simulate and analyze the impacts of biofuel mandates and trade distortions on land use, agricultural commodity and transportation fuel markets, and global environment. We find that an 80% increase in total biofuel production from its 103 billion liter baseline level to the mandated 183 billion liter level in 2022 can be achieved with less than 2% increase in total cropland use in both countries. In the United States, this would occur with cellulosic biofuels meeting nearly half of the biofuels consumed and produced largely on cropland pasture and corn ethanol meeting the rest of the mandate and resulting in a 2% increase in corn price. In Brazil, the expansion in sugarcane production would be achieved by reducing land under pasture and a marginal increase in intensification of livestock production. In the aggregate, biofuel policies increase economic surplus in both countries by 1% and redistribute the benefits from agricultural consumers to agricultural producers and the fuel sector. Finally, we also find that full implementation of the mandates in North America, China, and the European Union would reduce the global life‐cycle global greenhouse gas emissions by about 5%.     

Depressed demand for crop insurance contracts,and a rationale based on third generation Prospect Theory

When actuarially fair insurance for a major risk is available then standard economic theory posits that those subject to the risk should insure. In agriculture, it is common for producers to decline contract offers where presubsidy premiums just cover average losses and subsidies are substantial. This paper seeks to shed light on why demand is curtailed. In a mail survey of U.S. corn and soybean producers we solicited Willingness to Pay (WTP) for actuarially fair insurance at different coverage levels. We find demand to be so low that median WTP is no larger than fair premium when adjusted down by current subsidy rates, which pay for one half or more of most premium charges. WTP as a share of the fair rate is especially low when risk of loss is high. There is limited evidence that respondents appreciate the convex relationship between coverage level and expected indemnity payoff. Third generation Prospect Theory is shown to be consistent with observed findings. In particular, a strong distaste for paying premium can be rationalized by loss aversion. Furthermore, when high revenue outcomes are more likely than not, that is, negative skewness, then higher loss aversion, greater decision weight distortions and greater risk aversion will decrease WTP.     

Did the Federal Crop Insurance Reform Act Alter Farm Enterprise Diversification?

We estimate how much United States farms changed enterprise diversification in response to a marked increase in crop insurance coverage brought about by the 1994 Federal Crop Insurance Reform Act, which substantially increased insurance subsidies. The analysis exploits farm‐level panel census data to compare farm‐specific changes in enterprise diversification over time. By examining diversification decisions of the same farms over time, we control for time‐invariant unobserved individual heterogeneity. We then use pooled cross‐sectional data from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Agricultural Resource Management Survey to estimate the relationship between farm diversification and average returns. We find that the insurance subsidies caused a modest increase in enterprise specialisation and production efficiency. Estimated efficiency gains are far less than the subsidies.     

The potential impact of climate change on Taiwan's agriculture

This paper intends to estimate the potential impact of climate change on Taiwan's agricultural sector. Yield response regression models are used to investigate the climate change's impact on 60 crops. A price‐endogenous mathematical programming model is then used to simulate the welfare impacts of yield changes under various climate change scenarios. Results suggest that both warming and climate variations have a significant but non‐monotonic impact on crop yields. Society as a whole would not suffer from warming, but a precipitation increase may be devastating to farmers.     

Geography of crop yield skewness

Analysis of crop yield distributions provides insights into better understanding how natural resources shape agricultural productivity. This study seeks to provide a rigorous theoretical and empirical understanding of the effects of exogenous geographic and climatic factors on the first three moments of crop yields with focus on the third moment. We hypothesize that exogenous factors having beneficial effects on crop production should make crop yield distributions less positively or more negatively skewed. We employ a large crop insurance data set for corn, soybean, and wheat to find general support for our natural‐resources‐determines‐skewness hypothesis. The proposed statistical method optimally uses correlations between the first three moments. It significantly improves estimation performance over existing methods, including the linear moment model which has been commonly applied in the literature.     

Impacts of increased bioenergy demand on global food markets: an AgMIP economic model intercomparison

Integrated Assessment studies have shown that meeting ambitious greenhouse gas mitigation targets will require substantial amounts of bioenergy as part of the future energy mix. In the course of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), five global agro‐economic models were used to analyze a future scenario with global demand for ligno‐cellulosic bioenergy rising to about 100 ExaJoule in 2050. From this exercise a tentative conclusion can be drawn that ambitious climate change mitigation need not drive up global food prices much, if the extra land required for bioenergy production is accessible or if the feedstock, for example, from forests, does not directly compete for agricultural land. Agricultural price effects across models by the year 2050 from high bioenergy demand in an ambitious mitigation scenario appear to be much smaller (+5% average across models) than from direct climate impacts on crop yields in a high‐emission scenario (+25% average across models). However, potential future scarcities of water and nutrients, policy‐induced restrictions on agricultural land expansion, as well as potential welfare losses have not been specifically looked at in this exercise.     

Estimating Bird Damage to Rice in Africa: Evidence from the Senegal River Valley

Granivorous birds, mainly the Red‐billed Quelea, have subsisted on cereal crops in Africa for centuries and have caused substantial damage. There is, however, limited recent evidence on their impact. We propose an indirect method to estimate bird‐inflicted crop losses by fitting a production function with a damage abatement component and pest intensity slope dummies on a panel database of rice farmers in the Senegal River Valley. This allows us to estimate both bird damage and marginal productivity of bird control at different levels of bird pressure. Annual bird damage is found to average around 13.2% of the potential rice production during the wet seasons of 2003–2007, which translates into an average annual economic loss of 4.7 billion FCFA (€7.1 million). Our results are consistent with farmers’ perceived bird‐inflicted crop losses, averaging 15.2%. More alarmingly, we observe declining marginal productivities of bird control under increasing bird pressure. Farmers indicate that at high bird pressure, the efficacy of traditional bird scaring methods is inadequate, which suggests that predictive (monitoring), preventive (population control) and protective (insurance) measures against massive invasions are more urgent than improving the average efficacy of curative measures (pest control). These findings are especially relevant to farmers and policy‐makers who are currently struggling to implement an ambitious food self‐sufficiency programme in Senegal.     

Managing increasing environmental risks through agrobiodiversity and agrienvironmental policies

Agrobiodiversity can provide natural insurance to risk‐averse farmers by reducing the variance of crop yield, and to society at large by reducing the uncertainty in the provision of public‐good ecosystem services, for example, CO₂ storage. We analyze the choice of agrobiodiversity by risk‐averse farmers who have access to financial insurance, and study the implications for agrienvironmental policy design when on‐farm agrobiodiversity generates a positive risk externality. While increasing environmental risk leads private farmers to increase their level of on‐farm agrobiodiversity, the level of agrobiodiversity in the laissez‐faire equilibrium remains inefficiently low. We show how either one of the two agrienvironmental policy instruments can cure this risk‐related market failure: an ex ante Pigouvian subsidy on on‐farm agrobiodiversity and an ex post payment‐by‐result for the actual provision of public environmental benefits. In the absence of regulation, welfare may increase rather than decrease with increasing environmental risk, if the agroecosystem is characterized by a high natural insurance function, low costs, and large external benefits of agrobiodiversity.     

Motivations to grow energy crops: the role of crop and contract attributes

Perennial energy crops are a promising source of bioenergy whose production involves production risks, long‐term commitment of land and need for crop‐specific investments without the coverage of crop insurance potentially available for conventional crops. We conduct a choice experiment in five states in the Midwestern and South‐central regions of the U.S. to examine the effect of crop‐contract attributes on the joint discrete‐continuous choice decisions to adopt an energy crop and convert acres to it from a status quo use, while controlling for the effect of various farmers’ risk and time preferences, sociodemographic characteristics, and availability of crop insurance for conventional crops. We find robust evidence that high discount rates, high upfront establishment costs and need for crop‐specific investments create disincentives for adoption and allocation of land to energy crop production. The effects of riskiness of returns and risk aversion are less robust across specifications. The effect of conventional crop insurance on the energy crop adoption decision differs across types of insurance; in particular, farmers with revenue insurance are statistically significantly less likely to adopt an energy crop. Our results have implications for the design of effective contracts and policy incentives to induce the production of energy crops.     

The research cost of adapting agriculture to climate change: A global analysis to 2050

Investments in agricultural research and development (R&D) made over the next few decades will likely prove critical in offsetting adverse climate change impacts on the global food system. In this study, we offer cost estimates of public R&D-led adaptation to climate change grounded in an explicit framework relating the flow of annual R&D expenditures to building knowledge capital and thereby raising productivity in agriculture. Our research uses a comprehensive collection of historical public agricultural R&D expenditure and a literature review of elasticity estimates linking knowledge stocks to agricultural productivity growth for key world regions. Given climate-driven crop yield projections generated from extreme combinations of crop and global circulation models, we find that offsetting crop yield losses projected by climate and crop models over 2006–2050 would require increased R&D adaptation investments of between $187 billion and $1,384 billion (in 2005 $PPP) if we invest between 2020 and 2040. This is 16–118% higher than global R&D investment if present spending trends continue. Although these costs are significant, worldwide R&D-led climate adaptation could offer favorable economic returns. Moreover, R&D-led adaptation could deliver gains in food security and environmental sustainability by mitigating food price increases and slowing cropland expansion.     

Actuarial Fairness of Crop Insurance Rates with Constant Rate Relativities

Increased availability and demand for low-deductible crop insurance policies have increased focus on crop insurance rating methods. Actuarial fairness cannot be achieved if constant multiplicative factors are used to determine how premiums change as coverage levels increase. A comparison of premium rates generated by the factors used by the two most popular crop insurance products with those generated by a standard yield distribution shows that the popular insurance products overcharge for low-deductible policies in most counties. This overpricing may explain why large premium subsidies were required to induce farmers to move from low-deductible to high-deductible policies beginning in 2001.