Food commodity price changes and consumer welfare in Bangladesh: Valuable lessons for today

The recent rise in global food prices threatens many countries worldwide, especially the vulnerable populations. Viable coping strategies can only be designed based on the important policy lessons learned from the experiences of these countries in confronting the similar shocks of 2007–2011. However, the disproportionate effects of these events and the impacts of policy responses remain largely unexplored. We examine the impact of a food price surge and the effectiveness of various mitigating policies in Bangladesh, one of the most populous, densely populated countries in the world that is plagued by poverty. Specifically, we combine individual-level expenditure survey data with recent advances in consumer theory to examine the welfare consequences across income groups and geographic areas of the country over 2000–2016. Our empirical findings lend support to the hypothesis that the brunt of the price surge was borne by relatively less affluent and rural households, and government poverty alleviation programmes were largely ineffective.     

我国深度贫困地区的减贫成就与挑战以新疆X县为例

[目的]深度贫困地区是我国"脱贫攻坚"的硬骨头,但是鲜有研究对该地区的精准扶贫成效及未来挑战开展定量分析。[方法]文章以新疆典型县域(X县)为例,描述分析了该县贫困发生率,贫困家庭的收入、住房和饮水情况,脱贫方式,特殊群体的贫困特征以及致贫原因随时间的变化趋势。[结果]基于2013—2018年建档立卡贫困户信息,该县农村贫困发生率从2013年的37.2%下降到2018年的0.2%;贫困户人均收入从2 431元提高到11 281元;贫困农户的住房、饮水和医保等问题大多能在2年之内解决;大量青壮年和高学历人群依赖"政策脱贫";因病和因残致贫、老年贫困问题和因学致贫具有一定的普遍性。[结论]不返贫是可持续扶贫的最终目标。首先,逐步改善"财政兜底、一兜了之"的帮扶方式;其次,加强对特殊人群(例如,老年人口、高抚养比家庭等)的识别和帮扶力度;再次,消除因学致贫的可能性,同时为适龄劳动力提供有效的技能培训。     

The effects of a large discrete maize price increase on the distribution of household welfare and poverty in rural Kenya1

This study estimates the effects of a large discrete maize price increase on the welfare of a sample of rural Kenyan households. The usual first‐order welfare approximation formula is extended to a second‐order formula that allows for supply and demand responses to the price change. Results show that many rural households are not affected greatly by the price change, and there are about as many gainers as losers. However, these full sample results mask important differences across regions. Welfare gains generally take place in major production areas while losses are in areas where most households are net buyers of maize. Semiparametric methods are used to investigate the relationship between income and the size of the welfare effect, and poverty dominance techniques are applied to study the impacts of the maize price increase on rural poverty.     

Agricultural commercialisation,asset growth and poverty in rural Vietnam

Poverty remains a substantial threat in rural areas of many developing countries, and solving this problem requires an in-depth understanding of the income generating capacity that determines poverty. This paper examines the impact of agricultural commercialisation on the capability of rural households to accumulate and productively use assets and reduce structural and multidimensional poverty. A longitudinal dataset of around 2000 households with a total of 9781 observations from five rural surveys undertaken in the period 2008–2017 in Vietnam is used. Results from a fixed effects regression with an instrumental variable and a control function approach show that agricultural commercialisation has a positive effect on the accumulation of assets and reduces multidimensional and structural poverty over time. However, the effect is not homogeneous and is larger for households that are not mainly engaged in rice commercialisation. This suggests that commercialisation can be a path out of poverty, especially if policy makers move towards utilising other crops instead of rice.     

Long-term consequences of short-term precipitation shocks: evidence from Brazilian migrant households

We find that large short-term precipitation shocks damage the long-term income of households that have permanently migrated from rural to urban areas. This outcome is consistent with the behavior of credit-constrained rural households who are willing to accept lower long-term income in urban areas following the depletion of their productive assets during an adverse shock. Our empirical evidence suggests that there may be a link between large precipitation shocks in rural areas and urban poverty. Further exploration is warranted on the mechanisms by which natural disasters cause these long-term losses.     

Poverty,food intake,and malnutrition: implications for food security in developing countries

The relation between household income, food intake, and nutritional status in less developed countries is examined, and a framework that explicitly relates household behavior patterns with public policy options designed to improve the nutritional status of the rural and urban poor is presented. For rural areas, nutritional and health status depends largely upon the levels of private inputs provided by households. In turn, level depends upon income. Consequently, increasing income may also lead to improvements in nutrition and health status. Regrettably, post-World War II development strategy in most developing countries has undervalued the potential contribution of agricultural development to economic development. Domestic economic policies practiced thus far have most probably had serious negative effects upon the nutrition and heal status of the poorest segments of developing nations. Economic development policy reform is therefore called for as a measure to alleviate rural poverty in developing countries.     

Trade,policy, and food security

Food insecurity is extensive throughout the world and hunger and malnutrition are expected to remain serious humanitarian and political concerns, both in the short term and for the foreseeable future, particularly in low income developing countries where many rural and urban households are both income and asset poor. In those countries, domestic agricultural production is expected to be especially vulnerable to the impacts of climate change over the next 30 years. Thus international markets for staple agricultural commodities, which have become increasingly important as sources of nutrition for both developing and developed countries over the past 60 years, are likely to become even more important in the future. Free trade policies allow countries to exploit their comparative advantages in economic activity, increasing average per capita incomes, longer term growth rates and a country's capacity to fund social safety nets for the poor. However, many countries abandoned those policies in favor of domestic protections in their efforts to mitigate the effects of short run food crises. The policy challenge is therefore to resolve the tension between optimal long run policies and short run initiatives to address food security concerns.     

Livelihood roles of cattle and prospects for alternative land uses at the wildlife/livestock interface in South Africa

The emergence of wildlife ranching as an alternative land use option to agriculture, in Transfrontier Conservation Areas (TFCAs), has cast renewed interest on the role of cattle farming in rural livelihoods in areas close to wildlife parks. This study analysed the contribution of cattle to livelihoods and relationships between cattle and potential wildlife land uses in rural areas near Kruger National Park. Data were collected through household surveys, key informant interviews and community workshops. About 11% of households studied owned cattle, and cattle income constituted 29% of total household income. Benefits from cattle were also derived by households without cattle. About 71% of households had at least three sources of income, reflecting diversity of livelihoods. Wildlife related land uses were perceived by some households as threatening cattle production, whilst others viewed them as opportunities for alternative livelihoods. We conclude that cattle production has important livelihood roles, but is not sufficient as a driver of economic development in these areas. Incentives to encourage diversification of livelihoods at the wildlife/livestock interface, with possibilities for rural communities to explore wildlife based land uses should be put in place. In addition, land use policy and planning in such areas should focus on creating institutional mechanisms through which programmes integrating conservation and rural development goals can benefit rural communities.     

The impact of migration on rural poverty and inequality: a case study in China

Large numbers of agricultural labor moved from the countryside to cities after the economic reforms in China. Migration and remittances play an important role in transforming the structure of rural household income. This article examines the impact of rural‐to‐urban migration on rural poverty and inequality in a mountainous area of Hubei province using the data of a 2002 household survey. Since migration income is a potential substitute for farm income, we present counterfactual scenarios of what rural income, poverty, and inequality would have been in the absence of migration. Our results show that, by providing alternatives to households with lower marginal labor productivity in agriculture, migration leads to an increase in rural income. In contrast to many studies that suggest that the increasing share of nonfarm income in total income widens inequality, this article offers support for the hypothesis that migration tends to have egalitarian effects on rural income for three reasons: (1) migration is rational self‐selection—farmers with higher expected return in agricultural activities and/or in local nonfarm activities choose to remain in the countryside while those with higher expected return in urban nonfarm sectors migrate; (2) households facing binding constraints of land supply are more likely to migrate; (3) poorer households benefit disproportionately from migration.     

Aid to Agriculture, Growth and Poverty Reduction

Agriculture and rural growth promotion show a recent 'comeback' in development cooperation, but action on the ground so far is not sufficient. After years of neglect, policy makers have recognized that poverty reduction in many low income countries can only be achieved if development efforts are clearly focused on the sector which employs most of the poor, and the space where most of the poor live. The importance of agricultural growth was amply demonstrated during the economic transformation of Asia. Forty years ago, Asia was a continent of widespread poverty. Today, most Asian countries are experiencing significant growth and poverty reduction. Rapid growth in productivity in the small-farm sector helped drive this process. Sub-Saharan Africa, however, failed to achieve rapid agricultural growth and remains mired in poverty and hunger. If Africa is to halve poverty by 2015 in accordance with the Millennium Development Goals (MDG), agriculture will need to maintain an annual growth rate of 6 per cent between 2000 and 2015. China's experience from 1978 to 1984 shows such growth is possible. Achieving the desired rapid rates of growth in Africa will require coherent policies by governments and donors, a substantial investment of public resources in rural infrastructure and access to agricultural technology, and significant improvement in national governance.     

Sectoral and poverty impacts of agricultural policy adjustments in Colombia

We aim to assess the sectoral and poverty impacts of changes in agricultural policy in Colombia. For this, we use an agriculture specialized static computable general equilibrium model, together with a microsimulation model that allows employment to shift between sectors. Results indicate that the sectoral impact from policy changes tends to be small and that it considerably varies across crops. The macro model yields some gains in wages and capital rents, a relatively larger increase in land rents, and limited labor reallocation, together leading to small poverty impacts as calculated through the microsimulation model. The incidence of rural poverty decreases by less than 1% and the same happens to the poverty gap. In addition, poverty reductions are concentrated among households near the middle of the income distribution.     

风险冲击对农村居民家庭相对贫困的影响——基于CFPS数据的实证分析

目的 试图从微观农户层面研究风险冲击对相对贫困的影响及作用路径,以期为增强农村居民家庭风险抵御能力、缓解相对贫困提供实证支撑。方法 文章基于中国家庭动态追踪调查（CFPS）数据,运用面板probit模型和固定效应模型实证分析风险冲击对农村居民家庭相对贫困的影响,用异质性分析和面板门槛回归模型探讨不同收入水平的农村居民家庭风险应对方式差异。结果 （1）风险冲击会增加农村居民家庭相对贫困的可能。其中,灾害冲击是导致农村居民家庭相对贫困的首要原因,其次是教育冲击和婚丧嫁娶、孩子出生等重大事件冲击,失业冲击和健康冲击的影响相对较小。（2）不同收入水平农村居民家庭的风险应对机制差异是导致相对贫困家庭无法摆脱相对贫困的重要原因。与高收入的农村居民家庭相比,低收入的农村居民家庭遭受风险冲击时会减少更多的农业生产投资,增加更少的人力资本投资,导致家庭现有的资源配置无法提升家庭未来的收入能力,使其囿于相对贫困无法脱离。结论 政府应构建更具韧性的国家治理体系、更具弹性的社会帮扶体系,在此基础上提高农村居民家庭的可持续生计能力,从而减少农村居民家庭陷入相对贫困的可能。     

Changing Food Consumption of Households in Developing Countries: A Bangladesh Case

Increasing incomes, urbanization, and population growth are transforming developing countries. This structural transformation is changing lifestyles and consequently food consumption and agri-food systems. The present study uses Bangladesh as a case study, a rapidly growing developing economy in South Asia to examine the changing food consumption pattern. Using information from more than 29,000 households, the present study demonstrates that, with the increase in income and urbanization, this traditional rice-consuming country is increasingly consuming more wheat. The changes in the relative consumption in Bangladesh are prominent both in rural and urban areas. The literature often is based on the premise that with increasing income, households switch from staple cereals to high food-value items. The present study highlights the need to also consider within-staple substitution.     

Pathways out of poverty in lagging regions: evidence from rural western China

How to reduce poverty in lagging regions remains much debated and underserved with solid empirical evidence. This study illustrates an empirical methodology to analyze the pathways households followed out of poverty and to explore their potential in the future using 2000–2004 rural household panel data from two lagging provinces of China, Inner Mongolia and Gansu. It finds that rising labor productivity in agriculture has been key in understanding poverty reduction in rural lagging areas of these provinces and that it still holds much promise. Circular migration has also been important in Gansu, though less so in Inner Mongolia. On average, rural diversification has not proven to contribute much to poverty reduction and income transfers and agricultural tax abolishment have only helped at the margin. The findings from these two case studies highlight that the scope for reducing poverty in rural lagging regions can still be substantial in agriculture, also when nonagriculture drives national growth.     

The impact of food inflation on urban poverty and its monetary cost: some back‐of‐the‐envelope calculations

This article uses a sample of 72 developing countries to estimate the change in the cost of alleviating urban poverty brought about by the recent increase in food prices. This cost is approximated by the change in the poverty deficit (PD), that is, the variation in financial resources required to eliminate poverty under perfect targeting. The results show that, for most countries, the cost represents less than 0.2% of gross domestic product. However, in the most severely affected, it may exceed 3%. In all countries, the change in the PD is mostly due to the negative real income effect of those households that were poor before the price shock, while the cost attributable to new households falling into poverty is negligible. Thus, in countries where transfer mechanisms with effective targeting already exist, the most cost‐effective strategy would be to scale up such programs rather than designing tools to identify the new poor.     

Technological change and agricultural household income distribution: theory and evidence from China

This article applies a general equilibrium model to analyse the impact of new rice technology on household income and uses agricultural household survey data from China to test the implications of this model. It is shown that, when a new rice technology becomes available, the adopting household will reallocate resources to increase rice production and reduce the production of other goods. Meanwhile, the non-adopting households will do the opposite. Thus, the income from rice becomes increasingly concentrated in the adopting households and income from non-rice becomes increasingly concentrated in the non-adopting households. If only one source of income is examined, the introduction of new rice technology increases the inequality of income distribution in rural areas. But, if the total household income is examined, the distributional inequality is mitigated.     

Ex Ante Welfare Analysis of Technological Change: The Case of Nitrogen Efficient Maize for African Soils

This study evaluates the potential impacts of the Improved Maize for African Soils (IMAS) project in two countries of Africa: Kenya and South Africa. The IMAS varieties offer significant yield advantages for regions where low or no fertilizer is used. The analysis uses spatial production data and household data to account for the level of fertilizer use in different agroecological zones of the country as well as different types of maize producing households. Results suggest that IMAS will deliver a total of US$586 million in gross benefits with US$136 million and US$100 million of benefits to producers in Kenya and South Africa, respectively, and an additional US$112 million to consumers in Kenya and US$238 million to consumers in South Africa. These benefits could help more than 1 million people escape poverty in the two countries by 2025. Household level results suggest that small households in areas with relatively low levels of fertilizer use stand to gain significant benefits.     

多维视阈下土地流转的减贫效应及其异质性研究——基于CFPS2018微观数据分析

目的 土地流转是深化农村土地制度改革的重要探索,是解决农村贫困问题的重要路径,以土地流转为抓手对进一步实施乡村振兴战略具有重要意义。方法 文章基于2018年4 445份中国家庭追踪调查（CFPS）数据,从收入和贫困脆弱性两个维度入手,构建可行广义最小二乘法（FGLS）模型并运用倾向得分匹配（PSM）法分析土地流转的减贫效应及其异质性。结果 （1）在收入维度下,土地流转户的家庭收入水平相比未流转户高12.07%,其中受教育程度、家庭规模和工资水平的差异是影响农户家庭收入增加的关键因素;（2）在贫困脆弱性维度下,土地流转户的贫困脆弱性比未流转户低5.13%,西部地区贫困脆弱性水平为0.419远高于中部和东部地区;（3）从土地流转方式来看,土地转出户的贫困脆弱性比土地转入户显著低0.018,通过PSM解决内生性问题后结果依然稳健。结论 加快健全土地经营权流转机制,根据不同地区、不同农户的土地流转特征出台针对性的相关政策,强化新型农业经营主体的带动作用,完善农村社会化服务体系。     

分布式认知理论下易地扶贫搬迁户宅基地复垦意愿研究——基于广西的实证

[目的]分析易地扶贫搬迁户宅基地的复垦意愿及其影响因素,对于优化土地资源配置、完善易地扶贫搬迁后续扶持政策、保障农村社会长治久安,乃至巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果等,均具有重要意义。[方法]文章基于分布式认知理论,利用广西8市522份易地扶贫搬迁户的问卷数据,运用Logistic模型并综合田野调查,分析易地扶贫搬迁户宅基地利用现状及复垦意愿。[结果]（1）搬迁户宅基地以一户一宅为主,宅基地房屋具备占地面积大、建设成本低、建成年份早的特征;（2）搬迁户宅基地复垦率有待进一步提高,7.66%的宅基地房屋处于闲置状态,37.13%处于偶尔或照常使用状态;（3）搬迁户宅基地复垦意愿整体偏低,仅29.4%表示愿意复垦;（4）男性、宅基地面积大、未流转承包地、希望以后回农村养老的搬迁户其宅基地复垦意愿较低,而高收入、非农就业的搬迁户则意愿较高;（5）宅基地对于男性和希望以后回农村养老的搬迁户而言,承载着浓厚的精神寄托,对于未流转承包地和务农的搬迁户而言,仍发挥着生产生活功能。另外,宅基地面积越大,其建设成本也越高。[结论]在安置社区软硬件设施均较为完善的现实条件下,影响搬迁户宅基地复垦意愿的深层次因素为乡...     

Poverty, Risk Aversion, and Path Dependence in Low-Income Countries: Experimental Evidence from Ethiopia

In most low-income countries, rural households depend on mixed rain-fed agriculture/livestock production, which is very risky. Due to numerous market failures, there are few ways to shift risks to third parties. The literature has focused on what determines the responses of households in such environments. Of special concern are path dependencies in which households experiencing failure are prone to further failure and potential poverty traps. This paper estimates levels and determinants of risk aversion in the highlands of Ethiopia. We find high risk aversion and evidence that constraints have important impacts on risk-averting behavior with perhaps significant implications for long-term poverty. The results also suggest the possibility of path dependence and offer insights into links between risk aversion and poverty traps.