Poverty in Zambia: Levels,patterns and trends

This article presents the results of the analysis of levels, patterns and trends in the incidence of poverty in Zambia between 1991 and 1998, based on data captured in nationally representative surveys. In 1998, about 73 per cent of the households in Zambia were poor, the majority of which were extremely poor. Most poor households were in rural areas, with wide inter- and intra-provincial and district variations. The incidence of poverty also varied according to employment status and sector, as well as by district, gender, marital status, education and stratum of head of the household. In general, households headed by females, those without any formal education, unpaid family workers, the inactive, the self-employed, and those in agriculture, forestry and fishing recorded the highest incidence of poverty, with those employed in private households being affected the worst. In spite of the general increase in poverty nationally, most rural provinces registered declines while urban areas experienced increases in the incidence of poverty during the period under review. Furthermore, except for the agricultural/forestry, mining and quarrying, and electricity and gas sectors, the incidence of poverty increased in all the other sectors while remaining almost the same in the real estate sector. The direction and magnitude in the incidence of poverty between 1991 and 1998 were also associated with gender, education, employment status, employment sector, and residence of head of the household, as well as size of the household. Based on the analysis, the article strongly recommends revision in the measurement of poverty, investigation of the types of coping strategies adopted by the poor, and the extent to which these impact on the general well-being and productivity of vulnerable households in Zambia. The need for more qualitative data has also been highlighted.     

Macroeconomic adjustment programmes in the euro area: an overall assessment

Since the start of EMU (Economic and Monetary Union), the euro area, and more broadly the global economy, experienced an unprecedented credit boom. The expansion of credit was particularly strong in Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Cyprus and all of them subsequently needed official financial support. In each of the four programmes, financial assistance has been provided and promised against the commitment of each country to fulfil certain economic policy conditions contained in the macroeconomic adjustment programme. In general, a macroeconomic adjustment is a process driven by policies but also by changes in private spending behaviour (consumption, imports, investment) and improvement in competitiveness that countries are required to undertake after a large shock. In the case of the four countries, the shock emerged as a consequence of an excessive accumulation of imbalances in different parts of the economy: in the public sector in Greece, in the housing and banking sectors in Ireland, external imbalances in Portugal and in the banking sector in Cyprus. The paper looks at the feasibility of the fiscal adjustment comparing the macroeconomic conditions in the four countries and emphasising the role of the fiscal multipliers in the process. It also assesses the fall in the output in a comparative framework, stressing the role played by the different components of demand either in amplifying the effect of the fiscal consolidation or in offsetting it. In addition, it considers formulation of the programmes as well as their implementation with most attention devoted to reforms aiming at improving competitiveness, growth and employment in the framework of a cross-country approach.     

Rural Nonfarm Employment and Incomes in Chile

This article analyzes the evolution of rural nonfarm employment (RNFE) and income in Chile during 1990–96. The data used come from the National Socioeconomic Survey (CASEN), and from a household survey undertaken by the authors in two municipalities in 1999. The latter contrasted two zones, very different in terms of economic dynamism and rural poverty. We show that during the period, RNFE and incomes increased 10% and 18%, respectively, in 1996, reaching 39% of rural employment and 41% of rural incomes. The rate of multiactivity (the share of households participating in more than one sector) was only 20%, lower than expected, indicating a tendency toward economic specialization in rural income strategies. The determinants of such employment are mainly household characteristics, in particular variables related to human capital, such as the age and gender of the household head, and the schooling of the household members, although also important are access to credit and physical capital. The level of nonfarm income of rural households is determined mainly by the economic context, in particular the economic level and dynamism of the overall zone and the quality of the roads. It is proposed that policies to develop RNFE should be geared to zone characteristics, and should in general favor investments in education, in roads, and in access to credit. Moreover, households headed by women should be the object of special attention. To promote such policies, it will be necessary to address important gaps and weaknesses in the public institutional structure.     

三农创业实践驱动的学术问题与研究建议

改革开放40年中国经济与社会发生了天翻地覆的变化，创业功不可没。乡村振兴、共享经济、社会创业、三农变化、城乡互动等众多因素共同推动涉农创业，围绕农业、农村、农民的创业活动日趋活跃。但是，不能用工业化发展的逻辑振兴乡村，三农创业也不会是城市创业的自然延伸。挖掘三农创业实践中的学术问题，大力开展三农创业研究，不仅有助于为乡村振兴、精准扶贫、三农发展等政策建设建言献策，也有助于丰富和推动国内的创业研究。基于三农创业所展现出的活跃性和独特性，作者指出机会在未被充分利用的三农独特资源中孕育，资源、创业者等基本创业要素也正不断向三农集聚，呼吁学术界重视三农创业的研究工作。进一步地，文章从三农资源、企业家精神等角度切入，初步探讨了三农创业领域中可能具有学术价值的研究议题。最后，文章从三农创业实践出发，对三农创业的研究视野、研究情境、研究范围、研究层次和研究方法等应注意的问题提出了建议。     

Mises's dynamics of interventionism: Lessons from Indian agriculture

Despite trade liberalization, industrial delicensing, and deregulation in other sectors of the Indian economy since 1991, the agricultural sector is stifled by arbitrary, complex, and ever-increasing regulation in both input and product markets. This article resolves this puzzle of the Indian economy and, using Mises's theory of interventionism, explains the growth of regulation and subsidies in Indian agriculture. I argue that each intervention in agriculture created distortions in the market, necessitating the subsequent intervention in agricultural inputs and/or outputs. Land ceiling policies led to a large number of farmers with small and marginal landholdings. Attempts to increase agricultural productivity and income on small holdings led to interventions, and consequent distortions, in factor markets for seeds, fertilizer, electricity, water, credit, insurance, as well as in output markets in the form of minimum support prices. Indian agriculture policy serves as a cautionary tale of interventionism and needs systematic and comprehensive reforms.     

基于熵值法的广东省高等教育科研创新发展研究

以广东省为研究对象,选取2001—2020年的长时间序列数据,构建高等教育科研创新发展评价指标体系,运用熵值法对广东省近20年高等教育科研创新发展水平进行综合评价。研究结果显示,2001—2020年广东省高等教育科研创新发展总体呈现显著递增的趋势。从结构的变化来看,高等教育科研创新产出及成果转化水平与科研创新发展的变化规律基本一致,而科研创新投入水平存在区别,主要表现为受新冠肺炎疫情影响,科研创新投入水平有所下降。从结构的贡献来看,科研创新投入水平的差异是广东省高等教育科研创新发展差异变化的首要结构性来源,表明科研创新投入是决定广东省高等教育科研创新发展的关键因素。据此,对推动广东省高等教育科研创新提质增效、发挥高等教育科研创新对区域科技创新发展的支撑作用提出若干政策建议。     

农村消费品市场的现状、问题及对策研究——以赣州市农村消费品市场为例

由于我国城乡经济发展水平及收入水平的差异,消费品市场发展极不平衡。城市高档耐用消费品市场经过多年的发展,多数产品的消费已处于饱和状态；而全国占人口总数70%的农村,其高档耐用消费品的消费仍处于成长初期。因此,开拓农村消费品市场这一潜力巨大的市场对繁荣国内消费品市场、推动经济增长具有重要的现实意义。本文以赣州市农村市场的调查数据为依据,在分析农村消费品市场存在的主要问题和原因后,提出了开拓农村消费品市场的对策。     

中国和欧洲城市创意产业发展的比较研究

中国和欧洲的城市发展创意产业所面临的经济基础、社会环境和文化制度有较大的区别,比较研究中欧创意产业发展路径的相似与不同,对梳理我国创意产业的发展框架,吸取欧洲发达城市创意产业发展的先进经验,具有重要的现实意义。本文从创意产业的本质切入,剖析不同国家和地区对创意产业的内容和范围给予的不同理解和划分,详细论述了中国创意产业的发展路径,并从空间布局、法律保护、市场资源、文化氛围四个方面着手,比较了中欧城市创意产业发展框架的迥异。     

县域经济有关基本理论问题探析

县域经济是指以县级经济区域为地理空间,以市场为导向,以县级政权为调控主体,具有地域特色,功能完备的区域经济。县域经济是赋税经济、民生经济、区域经济、资源经济、生态经济;县域经济具有区域性、系统性、整体性、综合性、复合性、层次性、开放性、行政性、历史性、易变性     

高校财务信息化与智能化应用研究

在信息化背景下，传统财务管理模式已经不能满足高校管理的需求，高校财务信息化的转型势在必行。首先对目前高校财务信息化应用存在的问题进行深入探讨，然后对高校财务智能化应用做进一步思考，构建基于高校特殊性的高校财务智能化应用的基本架构，归纳高校财务智能化应用的特点，展望未来高校财务智能化的4种应用场景。最后提出转变管理者的思想观念、强化顶层设计、加强人才队伍建设、完善数据安全风险防控措施等建议。     

我国城市营商环境的评价指标体系构建及其南北差异分析

我国经济发展南北差异较大,城市营商环境对于南北区域经济发展具有重要影响。基于生态系统理论,从公共服务、人力资源、市场环境、创新环境、金融服务、法治环境、政务环境七个维度构建我国城市营商环境评价指标体系,对我国南北区域的城市营商环境进行比较分析。结果表明,南方地区城市营商环境整体上优于全国平均水平,且南方地区城市间营商环境差异相对较大;北方地区城市的营商环境得分整体上低于南方地区、全国水平,但北方地区城市间营商环境差异相对较小。同时,在七个分项指标方面,南方地区城市得分全面高于北方地区城市。在优化区域城市营商环境方面,南方地区的城市要进一步打破城市间营商环境发展不均衡格局,建立城市间营商环境评比机制;北方地区的城市需依据区域特征制定更具针对性的优化城市营商环境的政策。     

长三角地区转型发展的进程评价

为全面认识长三角地区近年来转型发展的进展情况,文章依据现代化的发展诉求,构建转型发展评价指标体系,确立两个评价指标:转型发展水平和转型发展指数,分别从横向和纵向两个方面对长三角转型发展情况进行比较分析。横向结果显示,长三角地区的转型发展水平位于全国前列,尤其社会转型和生态转型方面;纵向结果表明,自2000年以来长三角地区转型发展总体呈现良好的变化趋势,但是各领域的转型尚不够协调,主要是经济增长效益与经济结构优化进展较慢,今后需要加大转型力度。     

Book reviews

D. A. E. Pelteret, Slavery in early mediaeval England from the reign of Alfred until the twelfth century Edward Miller and John Hatcher, Medieval England: towns, commerce and crafts, 1086-1348 Maryanne Kowaleski, Local markets and regional trade in medieval Exeter Rosemary Horrox, ed., Fifteenth-century attitudes: perceptions of society in late medieval England Anthony Fletcher, Gender, sex and subordination in England, 1500-1800 Tim Harris, ed., Popular culture in England, c. 1500-1850 Margaret Spufford, ed., The world of rural dissenters, 1520-1725 John Guy, ed., The reign of Elizabeth I: court and culture in the last decade David L. Smith, Richard Strier, and David Bevington, eds., The theatrical city: culture, theatre and politics in London, 1576-1649 Richard Grassby, The business community of seventeenth-century England M.J. Braddick, Parliamentary taxation in seventeenth-century England: local administration and response Adrian Wilson, The making of man-midwifery: childbirth in England, 1660-1770 Kathleen Wilson, The sense of the people: politics, culture and imperialism in England, 1715-1785 David Hancock, Citizens of the world: London merchants and the integration of the British Atlantic community, 1735-1785 David R. Green, From artisans to paupers: economic change and poverty in London, 1790-1870 Cyril Ehrlich, First Philharmonic: a history of the Royal Philharmonic Society Patrick Joyce, Democratic subjects: the self and the social in nineteenth-century England Keith Laybourn, The evolution of British social policy and the Welfare State, c. 1800-1993 Bill Lancaster, The department store: a social history W.W. Knox, Hanging by a thread: the Scottish cotton industry, c. 1850-1914 C.H. Lee, Scotland and the United Kingdom: the economy and the Union in the twentieth century Eric M. Sigsworth, A respectable life: Leeds in the 1930s Timothy R. Whisler, At the end of the road: the rise and fall of Austin-Healey, MG and Triumph Sports Cars John D. Fudge, Cargoes, embargoes and emissaries: the commercial and political interaction of England and the German Hanse, 1450-1510 Pamela H. Smith, The business of alchemy: science and culture in the Holy Roman Empire Daniel Roche, The culture of clothing: dress and fashion in the‘ancien regime’ Göran Hoppe and John Langton, Peasantry to capitalism: western Östergötland in the nineteenth century Charles Feinstein, ed., Banking, currency and finance in Europe between the wars David Conroy, In public houses: drink and the revolution of authority in colonial Massachusetts Peter Temin, ed., Inside the business enterprise: historical perspectives on the use of information Historical atlas of Canada: R. Cole Harris, ed., Vol. i: From the beginning to 1800; R. Louis Gentilcore, ed., Vol. 2: The land transformed, 1800-1891; D. Kerr, ed., Vol. 3: Addressing the twentieth century, 1891-1961 Laird W. Bergad, Fe Iglesias García, and María del Carmen Barcia, The Cuban slave market, 1790-1880 Linda Cooke Johnson, Shanghai from market town to treaty port, 1074-1858 Olive Checkland, Shizuya Nishimura, and Norio Tamaki, eds., Pacific banking, 1859-1959: East meets West Tessa Morris-Suzuki, The technological transformation of Japan from the seventeenth to the twenty-first century J. Komlos, ed., The biological standard of living on three continents: further explorations in anthropometric history Forrest Capie, Tariffs and growth: some insights from the world economy, 1850-1940 John A. James and Mark Thomas, eds., Capitalism in context: essays in economic development and cultural change in honor of R.M. Hartwell Theodore M. Porter, Trust in numbers: the pursuit of objectivity in science and public life     

新疆发展加工贸易的必要性与对策

新疆对外贸易中加工贸易基础十分薄弱,加工贸易量与内地差距很大,长远看新疆加工贸易前景好,潜力巨大。新疆本地产品出口比重较低,加工贸易量明显不足,随着新疆整体设施环境的优化、贸易的整体转型升级,以及逐步承接的东部地区产业转移,新疆加工贸易对外贸增长的支撑作用将会越来越明显。新疆应紧紧抓住上海合作组织框架下的中亚自由贸易区的建设机遇以及东南沿海产业转移的良机,大力发展加工贸易,引导加工贸易在新疆落地生根和转型升级,提高新疆加工贸易在外贸进出口额中的比重,优化新疆的产业结构和进出口商品结构,推进新疆经济的全面发展。     

中国经济韧性的南北差异及形成机理

文章运用熵权TOPSIS法测度1997-2020年中国经济韧性综合指数及分维度指数,借助Dagum基尼系数分解探究南北方经济韧性的区域差异以及差异来源,运用二次指派程序实证考察经济韧性南北区域差异的形成机理。研究发现:(1)经济韧性总体水平虽不高但呈现波动中缓慢增长趋势,结构韧性和创新韧性指数低于经济韧性综合指数,是经济韧性提高的短板;南方地区经济韧性综合指数、规模韧性指数、结构韧性指数、创新韧性指数、开放韧性指数均高于北方地区,而制度韧性指数和社会韧性指数均低于北方地区。(2)经济韧性综合指数空间差异整体呈缩小趋势;区域间差异是经济韧性空间差异的主要来源。(3)创新韧性差异和开放韧性差异是南方地区经济韧性差异形成的主要原因;结构韧性差异和制度韧性差异是北方地区经济韧性差异形成的主要原因;创新韧性差异、规模韧性差异以及开放韧性差异对经济韧性差异的作用强度由北向南增强,而结构韧性差异、社会韧性差异和制度韧性差异对经济韧性差异的作用强度由北向南减弱。研究创新:基于规模韧性、结构韧性、创新韧性、开放韧性、制度韧性和社会韧性六大维度构建经济韧性综合评价指标体系,并对其空间差异及形成机理进行探讨分析。文章丰富了经济韧性评价体系的构建,为揭示我国经济韧性南北的区域差异现状、探索协同发展路径提供重要借鉴。     

Sustainable natural resource use in rural China: Recent trends and policies

In this paper we provide an overview of recent trends in the availability and quality of land and water resources in rural China, and examine the common presumption that rural resources are rapidly degrading in China. Data based on consistent definitions and measurement methods that have recently become available are used to that end. In addition, we analyse the impact of new policy initiatives to introduce market-based instruments and new institutions to address land degradation and water scarcity problems.We find that the decline in cultivated area has accelerated in the beginning of the new century. Ecological recovery programs, not urbanization and industrialization, are the major factors causing this decline. Ecological recovery programs are also a major force behind the increase in forest land area and the reduction of water erosion. Modest successes can be observed in the protection of wetlands and (until the mid-1980s) for the average quality of cultivated land. On the other hand, degradation of natural grassland and wind erosion have become much more severe in recent decades.In northern China, particularly in the 3-H (Hai and Luan, Huai and Huang) river basins, the availability of water has tightened. Groundwater tables have fallen considerably in the Hai river basin, because farmers increasingly rely on groundwater for irrigation. Evidence on other parts of northern China is mixed. Pollution of surface water is getting worse since the beginning of the 1990s in two major lakes in southern China and until recently in the rivers in northern China. Water quality problems in the larger rivers in southern China are less severe and getting less. These problems are to a large extent caused by agriculture-based non-point source pollution, especially in the major lakes and reservoirs.The sloping land conversion program, water pricing, and the establishment of water user associations and payments for environmental service projects are used as cases to examine the introduction of market-based instruments and new institutions. We argue that less government interference in the implementation of these instruments and institutions is likely to enhance ecological as well the economic benefits. Moreover, supportive measures to improve the functioning of land and labor markets are usually needed to ensure the sustainability of the impact of interventions.     

Exchange rate movements in emerging economies - Global vs regional factors in Asia

The aim of this article is to analyse the main determinants of emerging markets' exchange rate movements, particularly in Asia. For this purpose, we implement a dynamic latent factor model to investigate the drivers of 24 emerging countries' exchange rate movements and decompose the patterns into three components: a global common factor, a regional factor and a country-specific factor. Our results reveal that, in the whole period of 2000–2015, the common global factor is by far the most important determinant of exchange rate variations for Asian economies and, albeit to a lesser extent, for Latin America. However, after 2005, there is a strong increase in the explanatory power of the regional factor in Asia, from 5.6% to 45.1%, and to 49.7% in the period of 2011–2015, which shows that it is becoming the dominant factor in this area. Then, we use a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model and an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to show that the regional factor in Asia, estimated from the dynamic latent factor model, is mainly explained by Chinese economic variables. More particularly, our results highlight that the bilateral exchange rate of China, both the onshore and the offshore rates, and the macroeconomic climate in China greatly influence the regional factor in Asia in the long-run. These results give some evidence of a Renminbi zone in the long-run and are robust to the inclusion of two other major currencies in Asia, the Japanese Yen and the Korean Won, notably in the long run.     

Assessing black progress: voting and citizenship rights,residency and housing,education

Farley discusses progress US blacks have made in the areas of voting and citizenship rights, residency and housing, and education. A major goal of the civil rights movement was to permit blacks to influence the electoral process in the same manner as whites. Most important in this regard was the Voting Rights Act of 1965; the proportion of southern blacks casting ballots increased sharply since the early 1960s. The Civil Rights Act of 1875 outlawed racial segregation in public accommodations, but by the turn of the century, Jim Crow laws in southern states called for segregation in most public places. Common customs and government policy in the North resulted in similar segregation of blacks from whites. The Montgomery bus boycott and similar protests in dozens of other cities led to enactment of Title II of the Civil Rights Act of 1964, which proscribed such racial practices. By the late 1960s, blacks in all regions could use the same public accommodations as whites. In most metropolitan areas, de facto racial segregation persisted long after the laws were changed. Supreme Court decisions and local open-housing ordinances supported the right of blacks to live where they could afford. However the major change was the Fair Housing Act of 1968, which outlawed racial discrimination in the sale or rental of most housing units. The separation of blacks from whites did not end in the 1970s. Today, in areas which have large black populations, there are many central city neighborhoods and a few in the suburbs which are either all-black or are becoming exclusively black enclaves. Most other neighborhoods have no more than token black populations. Another major effort of civil rights organizations has been the upgrading of housing quality for blacks. By 1980, only 6% of the homes and apartments occupied by blacks lacked complete plumbing facilities (down from 50% in 1940). Unlike the modest changes in residential segregation, racial differences in housing quality have been greatly reduced. By 1960, black students approached parity with whites in terms of measurable aspects of school facilities. In 1940, young blacks averaged about 3 fewer years of educational attainment than whites; the time is nearing when the years of schooling completed by blacks and whites will be the same. In small and medium-sized cities throughout the country, public schools are generally integrated. However, the situation in the largest metropolitan areas is very different. Today, large public schools are segregated, in large part, because blacks and whites live in separate school districts.     

THE MOMENTOUS GOLD RUSHES

Gold discoveries in Australia in 1851 and New Zealand in 1861 galvanised the economic development of Australasia and had spillover effects in Britain, in ship technology, and even in the trans-Atlantic trade. The gold rushes quickly transformed economic, social, and political life. Moving around the continent in an anti-clockwise direction, they were to help found the northern port cities that grew to service the gold seekers. While the major strike in Western Australia in the 1890s out-produced the earlier period, Australia saw a third gold peak in the 1990s. The article surveys the contribution of the rushes to the development of Australasia.     

The long-run determinants of North-South terms of trade and some recent empirical evidence

This paper reviews some recent evidence of the long-run decline in the terms of trade of primary commodities versus manufactures in the context of North-South trade. This evidence is evaluated in the light of competing explanations of the sources of the observed long-run trends in the context of a model of North-South trade which includes a general resource, labor and capital in the North and specific factors in a dual economy model of the South. Changes in factor supply, sectoral and factoral bias in technical change, biased demand conditions, changes in the pattern of protection, and institutional elements, all play a role in determining the evolution of commodity and factor prices. The Lewis hypothesis of sectoral bias in the pattern of technical change towards temperate agriculture in the North and against tropical agriculture in the South is then reexamined in the light of the recent empirical evidence on terms of trade movements and some sketchy evidence presented on the patterns of bias in technical change in the North and the South. The evidence is not consistent with an absolute technical change bias towards temperate agriculture in the North. Rather, the rate of technical change in temperate agriculture is now comparable to that experienced in manufactures so that Engel curve effects now assert the major downward pressure on the long-run terms of trade between temperate agriculture commodities and manufactures, overriding the effects of diminishing returns to natural resources as Northern population expands. The empirical evidence onbiased technical change in the South is much more sketchy and the evidence on various components of North-South terms of trade is more varied.