Poverty in Zambia: Levels,patterns and trends

This article presents the results of the analysis of levels, patterns and trends in the incidence of poverty in Zambia between 1991 and 1998, based on data captured in nationally representative surveys. In 1998, about 73 per cent of the households in Zambia were poor, the majority of which were extremely poor. Most poor households were in rural areas, with wide inter- and intra-provincial and district variations. The incidence of poverty also varied according to employment status and sector, as well as by district, gender, marital status, education and stratum of head of the household. In general, households headed by females, those without any formal education, unpaid family workers, the inactive, the self-employed, and those in agriculture, forestry and fishing recorded the highest incidence of poverty, with those employed in private households being affected the worst. In spite of the general increase in poverty nationally, most rural provinces registered declines while urban areas experienced increases in the incidence of poverty during the period under review. Furthermore, except for the agricultural/forestry, mining and quarrying, and electricity and gas sectors, the incidence of poverty increased in all the other sectors while remaining almost the same in the real estate sector. The direction and magnitude in the incidence of poverty between 1991 and 1998 were also associated with gender, education, employment status, employment sector, and residence of head of the household, as well as size of the household. Based on the analysis, the article strongly recommends revision in the measurement of poverty, investigation of the types of coping strategies adopted by the poor, and the extent to which these impact on the general well-being and productivity of vulnerable households in Zambia. The need for more qualitative data has also been highlighted.     

三农创业实践驱动的学术问题与研究建议

改革开放40年中国经济与社会发生了天翻地覆的变化，创业功不可没。乡村振兴、共享经济、社会创业、三农变化、城乡互动等众多因素共同推动涉农创业，围绕农业、农村、农民的创业活动日趋活跃。但是，不能用工业化发展的逻辑振兴乡村，三农创业也不会是城市创业的自然延伸。挖掘三农创业实践中的学术问题，大力开展三农创业研究，不仅有助于为乡村振兴、精准扶贫、三农发展等政策建设建言献策，也有助于丰富和推动国内的创业研究。基于三农创业所展现出的活跃性和独特性，作者指出机会在未被充分利用的三农独特资源中孕育，资源、创业者等基本创业要素也正不断向三农集聚，呼吁学术界重视三农创业的研究工作。进一步地，文章从三农资源、企业家精神等角度切入，初步探讨了三农创业领域中可能具有学术价值的研究议题。最后，文章从三农创业实践出发，对三农创业的研究视野、研究情境、研究范围、研究层次和研究方法等应注意的问题提出了建议。     

基于熵值法的广东省高等教育科研创新发展研究

以广东省为研究对象,选取2001—2020年的长时间序列数据,构建高等教育科研创新发展评价指标体系,运用熵值法对广东省近20年高等教育科研创新发展水平进行综合评价。研究结果显示,2001—2020年广东省高等教育科研创新发展总体呈现显著递增的趋势。从结构的变化来看,高等教育科研创新产出及成果转化水平与科研创新发展的变化规律基本一致,而科研创新投入水平存在区别,主要表现为受新冠肺炎疫情影响,科研创新投入水平有所下降。从结构的贡献来看,科研创新投入水平的差异是广东省高等教育科研创新发展差异变化的首要结构性来源,表明科研创新投入是决定广东省高等教育科研创新发展的关键因素。据此,对推动广东省高等教育科研创新提质增效、发挥高等教育科研创新对区域科技创新发展的支撑作用提出若干政策建议。     

县域经济有关基本理论问题探析

县域经济是指以县级经济区域为地理空间,以市场为导向,以县级政权为调控主体,具有地域特色,功能完备的区域经济。县域经济是赋税经济、民生经济、区域经济、资源经济、生态经济;县域经济具有区域性、系统性、整体性、综合性、复合性、层次性、开放性、行政性、历史性、易变性     

Macroeconomic adjustment programmes in the euro area: an overall assessment

Since the start of EMU (Economic and Monetary Union), the euro area, and more broadly the global economy, experienced an unprecedented credit boom. The expansion of credit was particularly strong in Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Cyprus and all of them subsequently needed official financial support. In each of the four programmes, financial assistance has been provided and promised against the commitment of each country to fulfil certain economic policy conditions contained in the macroeconomic adjustment programme. In general, a macroeconomic adjustment is a process driven by policies but also by changes in private spending behaviour (consumption, imports, investment) and improvement in competitiveness that countries are required to undertake after a large shock. In the case of the four countries, the shock emerged as a consequence of an excessive accumulation of imbalances in different parts of the economy: in the public sector in Greece, in the housing and banking sectors in Ireland, external imbalances in Portugal and in the banking sector in Cyprus. The paper looks at the feasibility of the fiscal adjustment comparing the macroeconomic conditions in the four countries and emphasising the role of the fiscal multipliers in the process. It also assesses the fall in the output in a comparative framework, stressing the role played by the different components of demand either in amplifying the effect of the fiscal consolidation or in offsetting it. In addition, it considers formulation of the programmes as well as their implementation with most attention devoted to reforms aiming at improving competitiveness, growth and employment in the framework of a cross-country approach.     

农村消费品市场的现状、问题及对策研究——以赣州市农村消费品市场为例

由于我国城乡经济发展水平及收入水平的差异,消费品市场发展极不平衡。城市高档耐用消费品市场经过多年的发展,多数产品的消费已处于饱和状态；而全国占人口总数70%的农村,其高档耐用消费品的消费仍处于成长初期。因此,开拓农村消费品市场这一潜力巨大的市场对繁荣国内消费品市场、推动经济增长具有重要的现实意义。本文以赣州市农村市场的调查数据为依据,在分析农村消费品市场存在的主要问题和原因后,提出了开拓农村消费品市场的对策。     

高校财务信息化与智能化应用研究

在信息化背景下，传统财务管理模式已经不能满足高校管理的需求，高校财务信息化的转型势在必行。首先对目前高校财务信息化应用存在的问题进行深入探讨，然后对高校财务智能化应用做进一步思考，构建基于高校特殊性的高校财务智能化应用的基本架构，归纳高校财务智能化应用的特点，展望未来高校财务智能化的4种应用场景。最后提出转变管理者的思想观念、强化顶层设计、加强人才队伍建设、完善数据安全风险防控措施等建议。     

我国城市营商环境的评价指标体系构建及其南北差异分析

我国经济发展南北差异较大,城市营商环境对于南北区域经济发展具有重要影响。基于生态系统理论,从公共服务、人力资源、市场环境、创新环境、金融服务、法治环境、政务环境七个维度构建我国城市营商环境评价指标体系,对我国南北区域的城市营商环境进行比较分析。结果表明,南方地区城市营商环境整体上优于全国平均水平,且南方地区城市间营商环境差异相对较大;北方地区城市的营商环境得分整体上低于南方地区、全国水平,但北方地区城市间营商环境差异相对较小。同时,在七个分项指标方面,南方地区城市得分全面高于北方地区城市。在优化区域城市营商环境方面,南方地区的城市要进一步打破城市间营商环境发展不均衡格局,建立城市间营商环境评比机制;北方地区的城市需依据区域特征制定更具针对性的优化城市营商环境的政策。     

新疆发展加工贸易的必要性与对策

新疆对外贸易中加工贸易基础十分薄弱,加工贸易量与内地差距很大,长远看新疆加工贸易前景好,潜力巨大。新疆本地产品出口比重较低,加工贸易量明显不足,随着新疆整体设施环境的优化、贸易的整体转型升级,以及逐步承接的东部地区产业转移,新疆加工贸易对外贸增长的支撑作用将会越来越明显。新疆应紧紧抓住上海合作组织框架下的中亚自由贸易区的建设机遇以及东南沿海产业转移的良机,大力发展加工贸易,引导加工贸易在新疆落地生根和转型升级,提高新疆加工贸易在外贸进出口额中的比重,优化新疆的产业结构和进出口商品结构,推进新疆经济的全面发展。     

Exchange rate movements in emerging economies - Global vs regional factors in Asia

The aim of this article is to analyse the main determinants of emerging markets' exchange rate movements, particularly in Asia. For this purpose, we implement a dynamic latent factor model to investigate the drivers of 24 emerging countries' exchange rate movements and decompose the patterns into three components: a global common factor, a regional factor and a country-specific factor. Our results reveal that, in the whole period of 2000–2015, the common global factor is by far the most important determinant of exchange rate variations for Asian economies and, albeit to a lesser extent, for Latin America. However, after 2005, there is a strong increase in the explanatory power of the regional factor in Asia, from 5.6% to 45.1%, and to 49.7% in the period of 2011–2015, which shows that it is becoming the dominant factor in this area. Then, we use a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model and an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to show that the regional factor in Asia, estimated from the dynamic latent factor model, is mainly explained by Chinese economic variables. More particularly, our results highlight that the bilateral exchange rate of China, both the onshore and the offshore rates, and the macroeconomic climate in China greatly influence the regional factor in Asia in the long-run. These results give some evidence of a Renminbi zone in the long-run and are robust to the inclusion of two other major currencies in Asia, the Japanese Yen and the Korean Won, notably in the long run.     

基于LMDI模型的化肥施用量时空特征与驱动机制分析

临沂市化肥施用量近年来一直处于下降趋势,但化肥施用强度仍未达到国家和国际标准。基于临沂市2010—2019年的面板数据,利用灰色GM(1,1)模型预测临沂市未来化肥施用强度趋势,评价临沂市化肥施用情况,计算达到国家和国际标准所需年限;采用弹性脱钩模型分析临沂市化肥施用与农业增长关系变化;运用LMDI分解模型将临沂市化肥施用分解为规模效应、结构效应、市场效应、效率效应,计算出各效应的贡献值,从而提出临沂市化肥减量驱动机制,为临沂市化肥减量提供理论指导。结果表明：临沂市化肥施用强度到2027年达到国家标准,到2030年达到国际标准;临沂市弹性脱钩系数近10年除2016—2018年为扩张性联结外,其他年均已达到绝对脱钩,且各县区大部分已绝对脱钩,说明临沂市及其各县区近年来的农业产值与化肥施用量变化关系较小。对临沂市化肥减量起主要作用的是市场效应（负效应）和效率效应（正效应）,而规模效应和结构效应对临沂市化肥减量的影响程度较小。因此,应坚定不移地致力于提高化肥效率、加大农业投入、加强农户施肥培训、改善种植结构。     

THE MOMENTOUS GOLD RUSHES

Gold discoveries in Australia in 1851 and New Zealand in 1861 galvanised the economic development of Australasia and had spillover effects in Britain, in ship technology, and even in the trans-Atlantic trade. The gold rushes quickly transformed economic, social, and political life. Moving around the continent in an anti-clockwise direction, they were to help found the northern port cities that grew to service the gold seekers. While the major strike in Western Australia in the 1890s out-produced the earlier period, Australia saw a third gold peak in the 1990s. The article surveys the contribution of the rushes to the development of Australasia.     

Temporary Migration, the Informal Economy and Structural Change: London's Bicycle Rickshaw Riders

In the context of social, economic and political change, and of a continuing fall in the real cost of travel, temporary migrations to London, as to other major cities in the global North, have become increasingly common. Indeed, some have speculated that they may come to replace permanent migrations. This trend has intersected with 'informalization' of lower-status jobs in some cities of the global North, including London, and the general depression of migrant wages in low-end jobs in the formal sector. In this context, debate has developed about the role of temporary migrations in migrants' long-term and short-term strategies, and about their impact on host societies. Drawing on a sustainable livelihoods approach the short-term and long-term life strategies and livelihood strategies of 60 Colombian and Polish bicycle rickshaw ('pedicab') riders in London are analysed and compared. Despite the differences in the status of the two groups, findings are that both groups develop and draw on cultural and social capital in the workplace to facilitate dealings with the local economy and polity; both have had an influence on the local economic sector in which they operate; and both migrate temporarily as part of a life strategy at home, as part of which their migrations have a touristic and cultural, as well as instrumental purpose.     

The impact of information and communication technology on international trade in fruit and vegetables in APEC

The global food marketing network is being constantly reshaped, providing opportunities and challenges for information and communication technology (ICT) to develop and improve international trade in food products. A gravity model of international trade is employed to see if ICT positively affects bilateral international trade in fruit and vegetables between member Asia‐Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) economies. We examine if the use of the Internet, mobile telephones, and fixed telephone lines determine the value of bilateral trade. Empirical results for the importance of ICT differ markedly between importing activities and exporting activities in the international value chain of fruit and vegetables in APEC countries. Changes in ICT levels in the import sector of the value chain have no effect on international trade in fruit and vegetables. However, in the export sector, growth in some ICT products has significant positive effects on trade in fruit and vegetables between APEC countries. Surprisingly, the strongest impact was discerned for the traditional form of ICT, fixed telephone lines, but this impact probably reflects the fact that fixed telephone lines are a proxy variable for the general level of infrastructure development. Of the two digital ICTs, mobile telephony and the Internet, only the Internet had a significant impact on trade levels. The further development of the Internet and its diffusion should make exporters in APEC countries more competitive in the fruit and vegetables value chain, and boost their trade values in these products.     

The evolution of value added in assembly operations: the case of China and Mexico

China and Mexico embarked, around the early 1980s, on the process of liberalization of trade and FDI and established some export oriented industries through assembly operations with the help of FDI. Both countries had the same objective of increasing value added in export processing industries. The authors examine the comparative achievements of their common objectives in the light of the export oriented strategy hypothesis. Applying the indicators of Revealed Comparative Advantage to exports and imports, the authors show that while there are some similarities in the performance of the two countries, there are also striking differences. Both have managed to increase manufactured exports, particularly in IT products, significantly during 1990s. Both, but particularly China, have developed comparative advantage in export and production of many industries, which had been initiated through import substitution. However, Mexico has achieved little, compared with China, in increasing value added in exports and in developing comparative advantage in production in assembly operations. Further, unlike China, since the early years of the 2010 decade it has not been able to sustain its rapid export growth.     

Who suffers from the COVID-19 shocks? Labor market heterogeneity and welfare consequences in Japan

Effects of the COVID-19 shocks in the Japanese labor market vary across workers of different age groups, genders, employment types, education levels, occupations, and industries. We document heterogeneous changes in employment and earnings in response to the COVID-19 shocks, observed in various data sources during the initial months after the onset of the pandemic in Japan. We then feed these shocks into a life-cycle model of heterogeneous agents to quantify welfare consequences of the COVID-19 shocks. In each dimension of the heterogeneity, the shocks are amplified for those who earned less prior to the crisis. Contingent workers are hit harder than regular workers, younger workers than older workers, females than males, and workers engaged in social and non-flexible jobs than those in ordinary and flexible jobs. The most severely hurt by the COVID-19 shocks has been a group of female, contingent, low-skilled workers, engaged in social and non-flexible jobs and without a spouse of a different group.     

“推拉理论”视阈下台商大陆投资发展研究

"推拉理论"为台商投资向大陆地区转移的动力分析提供了一个可参考的框架。在台湾"推力"和大陆"拉力"的作用下,我国台商大陆投资升温。在产业选择上,随着台商投资形势的不断发展,越来越多的台商选择在大陆投资农业,以农业为主的绿色投资升温。在区域选择上,中西部地区成为台商新的投资热点。面对新的形势,应借助台湾"推力",强化大陆"拉力",促进我国台商大陆投资掀起新的高潮。     

Rural Nonfarm Employment and Incomes in Chile

This article analyzes the evolution of rural nonfarm employment (RNFE) and income in Chile during 1990–96. The data used come from the National Socioeconomic Survey (CASEN), and from a household survey undertaken by the authors in two municipalities in 1999. The latter contrasted two zones, very different in terms of economic dynamism and rural poverty. We show that during the period, RNFE and incomes increased 10% and 18%, respectively, in 1996, reaching 39% of rural employment and 41% of rural incomes. The rate of multiactivity (the share of households participating in more than one sector) was only 20%, lower than expected, indicating a tendency toward economic specialization in rural income strategies. The determinants of such employment are mainly household characteristics, in particular variables related to human capital, such as the age and gender of the household head, and the schooling of the household members, although also important are access to credit and physical capital. The level of nonfarm income of rural households is determined mainly by the economic context, in particular the economic level and dynamism of the overall zone and the quality of the roads. It is proposed that policies to develop RNFE should be geared to zone characteristics, and should in general favor investments in education, in roads, and in access to credit. Moreover, households headed by women should be the object of special attention. To promote such policies, it will be necessary to address important gaps and weaknesses in the public institutional structure.     

论善意取得制度在不动产上的适用

善意取得是各国民法物权法上的一项重要的法律制度,它主要解决财产所有人与善意受让人之间的冲突,确认和保护善意受让人在交易中已取得的物权。不动产善意取得制度的研究,重在解析我国不动产善意取得的构成要件和法律效力,须以不动产善意取得制度的渊源和理论基础为出发点,同时,对我国应该实行不动产善意取得制度的问题进行深入探讨,还有必要综合考察不同法系国家的善意取得制度。     

‘Such unjustificable practices’?: Irish trade,settlement, and society in France, 1688–1715

This article explores Irish migration, settlement, and commerce in the Atlantic coast ports of France in the period between the Glorious Revolution of 1688–9 and the Jacobite uprising of 1715. Drawing on extensive archival material and using current methodologies, this study suggests that the composition of society was vital in the development of international associations. This is particularly pertinent in a period characterized by warfare, religious fervour, and the rise of Jacobitism. Common allegiance to Catholicism and support for the Stuart dynasty in both Ireland and France provided a framework conducive to international cooperation, but the Irish who settled in France held both Catholic and Reformed beliefs, and were not necessarily products of the Jacobite movement. Migration and integration, and commercial practices and successes, were not determined solely by religious or political affiliation, but were influenced by the composition of society and the support and acceptance received by immigrants and traders therein. Through an analysis of the Franco‐Irish case study, it is concluded here that the social context of mercantile activity was just as responsible as the political or religious climate in governing the development of international commercial relationships in this period.