Small businesses in a system of measures aimed at recovering the trajectory of economic growth

The article has substantiated an approach to small businesses as a factor that potentially promotes the recovery of economic growth. Consequences of ineffective government policy towards small business have been analyzed, as well as provisions of the “Strategy for the Development of Small and Medium-Sized Business in the Russian Federation until 2030.” Measures have been proposed that are aimed at stabilizing the operating conditions of small businesses and restoring the entrepreneurs’ confidence in the state.     

On the assessment of the potential expansion of agricultural production and its structural shifts

This paper deals with retrospective trends in the development of Russian agriculture and the longterm potential for agricultural production growth. Based on this analysis, the importance of adjusting agricultural policy is justified.     

Macroeconomic dynamics of the Russian economy in the long term

The article presents the main provisions of the macroeconomic section of the regular long term forecasts of the Institute for Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Science, prepared in 2012. The key idea of the forecast is based on an assessment of the growth potential of the Russian economy. It is necessary for the definition of an economic policy aimed at achieving this potential result in the perspective until 2030.     

Strategy of transition to economic growth

The author analyses the factors that predetermined the negative dynamics of the Russian GDP in 2015 and expresses a number of ideas that should be implemented in order to achieve recovery in Russia. The author pays special attention to mutual economic sanctions in Russia and the West, decision errors made by the country’s financial authorities, and proposals for adjustments to national macroeconomic policy.     

Necessary conditions for the modernization of the Russian processing industry on the example of the heavy engineering industry

The necessity of a state policy for the modernization of the heavy engineering sector for the purpose of equalizing the competitive conditions for national and foreign manufacturers is substantiated in the paper. A strategy for the recovery of the Russian heavy engineering industry is offered based on the world experience of support of national products and their promotion in foreign markets. Predictive estimates of the possible development of the industry up to 2020 are given.     

Some topical issues of Russian monetary policy

Some issues of Russian monetary policy are considered. The strenghts and weaknesses of the Russian monetary policy regime reviewed and alternative methods of macroeconomic regulation are presented.     

Structural policy in the long run: Objectives and priorities

The issue of restoration of the reproduction potential of the Russian economy in the long term is discussed. The emphasis is on necessary structural change, which is seen as a major growth factor of the domestic economy. The negative effect of structural imbalances on the efficiency of market-driven regulation mechanisms is analyzed. The case is made for concentrating economic policy measures on rectifying accumulated imbalances with a view to creating a growth potential for new quality.     

European policy of the diversification of natural gas supplies (in the case of Lithuania) and consequences for Russian gas exports

This article analyzes the influence of the strategy for diversification of natural gas suppliers, proclaimed by the European Union, on the economy of an importer country and studies the prospects of development for Russian natural gas exports. Studying the case of Lithuania as an example, which simultaneously imports Russian gas and transfers it to Kaliningrad Oblast, opportunities and prospects for implementing the policy of diversifying exporters have been considered. The directions of policy adjustment for Russian gas exports under varying conditions have been discussed.     

Incomes and consumption of the russian population during the crisis and alternatives to the government policies in this sphere

The paper discusses the dynamics of income and consumption of the Russian population in the 2000s, factors of accelerated growth, and the most important changes in the structure of retail turnover within this period. The shifts in the structure of income use and the dynamics of turnover under the effect of the crisis that began in 2008 are analyzed. Forecast estimates for 2009 are presented. Suggestions are formulated for prior anticrisis measures and government policy in the consumption sector.     

Technological progress and Chinese agricultural growth in the 1990s

The paper examines the factors contributing to the sharp recovery of China's agricultural production in the 1990s in contrast to the stagnation in the late 1980s, and analyzes the policy effects during this period paying special attention to the role of technological progress. Using data from 28 provinces covering the years 1991–1999, a conventional production model and an extended production model with time-effects are estimated using random-effects estimation and a growth accounting for land productivity is evaluated. The results show that technological progress plays the dominant role in the recovery, accounting for 58% of total productivity growth during the sample period, while an increase in fertilizer use is second, with about 19%. Extension of the land tenure to 30 years for farm households could be a policy encouraging adoption of new technologies and more investment. The contribution of this policy change accounts for 21% in the productivity growth in the period. Increase in mechanized farming, plastic film input and education are all factors contributing to China's agricultural growth in the 1990s.     

The Green Factor of Economic Growth in Russia and the World

The article discusses the role of environmental and climate factors in the modernization of the global and Russian economies in the context of the challenges presented by the new industrial revolution. It is emphasized that a restraining effect of these factors on economic growth is primarily caused by qualitative characteristics of technologies used for resource utilization and the adaptation of population and facilities to global climate changes. The article considers a growing urgency of eco-innovations, as well as “green” technologies overall, as a factor affecting the economic growth and modernization of the economy; the unevenness of the development of these technologies in the countries of the world; and strategic risks of Russia’s lagging behind the leading world economies in this area. A special emphasis is placed upon (i) a substantiation of the significance of the mineral, raw material and fuel and energy complexes, as well as the forest-industryl and agro-industrial complex, as priority sectors for the development eco-innovations and green technologies in Russia and (ii) arguing that in Russian conditions a long-term development policy is in essence a strategy for green economic growth.     

Amortization policy as a factor in the investment policy of an economy

The article is based on the Concept and a draft law on amortization policy in the Russian Federation prepared by the Association of Mining and Metallurgical Industrialists of Russia (Russian abbreviation: AMROS). It examines the role and place of amortization policies in Russia and around the world as well as their essential differences in terms of the economic mechanisms of capital reproduction. Measures to improve Russia’s amortization policy are suggested.     

Prospects of Economic Development in Russia

An overview has been given of the key themes that define the socioeconomic development of Russia today. Different aspects of today’s Russian economic policy have been analyzed and its shortcomings have been determined. The potential for economic growth has been assessed. Issues associated with financing the economy and interest rates on loans have been discussed. The role of high technologies and digitization in the economy has been reviewed. Proposals have been formulated for renewing national economic policy.     

美国量化宽松政策的实施背景、影响与中国对策

2010年一季度以后美国经济复苏势头弱化。在降息、扩大财政赤字规模等刺激经济增长的常规政策措施空间有限的情况下,为巩固经济复苏势头,美国采取了实施第二轮量化宽松政策的非常规措施。量化宽松政策增加的基础货币将导致美元贬值,加大全球通货膨胀压力,刺激国际市场短期资本流向中国、印度等新兴市场,稀释美国债务,加大其他国家持有美元固定收益资产的投资损失。中国持有的大量固定收益美元资产将因此大幅缩水,并面临输入型通胀压力加大和短期资本大量涌入的挑战,需采取优化外汇储备投资结构、加强对短期资本流入管控、加快实施国内企业走出去战略、增强人民币汇率弹性等多方面措施应对。     

Scenario forecasting as an agricultural strategy development instrument

Methodological considerations that appeared in the previous issue of this journal are specified. The logic of socioeconomic threat formation is presented under an inertial scenario of agricultural development. The interdependence between improving the competitiveness of agricultural production, rural socioeconomic development, and nature management rationalization, which necessitates the elaboration of a comprehensive government policy, is demonstrated. A system of prognostic-analytical calculations is described; estimates are obtained to indicate a significant potential for increasing meat and dairy production and, hence, the strategic importance of the policy to improve the competitiveness of the Russian livestock industry. These findings may serve as the case for early development of a foundation for an agricultural and food policy, which is pertinent to the situation of approaching the “natural ceiling” of agricultural growth targeted at the domestic market.     

论黑龙江省对俄经贸合作

在对俄经贸合作活动中,黑龙江省曾做过很多有益的尝试,做出过突出的贡献,随着中俄经贸活动由无序竞争到有序的发展,黑龙江省应适时调整对俄经贸的策略,不断开拓俄罗斯市场,发挥私营企业在对俄经贸活动中的作用,加强林业、农业、科技等方面的合作,完善对俄劳务输出的政策,扩大对俄投资的力度.     

Russia’s salt industry: Problems of development

The paper describes the current situation in the salt industry. It points to the inadmissibly high and expanding market share of imported salt products despite the country’s own colossal resource base and the domestic enterprises’ huge unused capacities. It has been shown that OAO Russian Railroads (OAO RZhD) will economically benefit due to its reasonable policy of selective reduction of the railroad shipment tariffs for salt for domestic producers due to the inevitable growth of the country’s own salt output.     

Structural and investment policy as an instrument for modernizing the Russian economy

The article considers the current situation of the structural and technological imbalance in the Russian economy, as well as the nonproportional distribution of the factors of production and financial resources. The need for structural reforms in industrial production and income generation has been shown. The author discusses priorities of structural and investment policy, direction of new technological breakthrough in the long-term national strategy of entering international technological space. Special features of development of key economic sectors have been analyzed. In conclusion, quantitative estimates of economic dynamics in the long term up to 2035 have been given, which are predetermined by implementation of planned measures of structural and investment policy that provides potential for GDP growth until 2035 at a rate of no less than 3.5% on average per year.     

Trends in the Development of Russian Currency Markets in the Context of Global Structural Transformations and Sanctions

The article analyzes factors, features and trends in the development of the Russian foreign exchange market as an integral part of international currency market in the context of global financial imbalances, de-globalization processes, new protectionism and sanctions regime in relation to Russia. Particular attention is paid to assessing the impact of forms and methods of managing international foreign exchange reserves on structure of Russian foreign exchange market, as well as characterizing the channels of impact of the current conditions for functioning of the Russian foreign exchange market on the currency policy strategy.     

俄罗斯国防工业“寓军于民”战略研究

俄罗斯国防工业从国家战略上重视国防工业军民融合,大力推行军转民政策。尤其在军事航天装备上,更是体现国家从战略高度上的重视和一系列政策支持。国家政策支持、循序渐进的改革以及在军工企业之间建立有效的军转民协调机制就显得十分重要。