20世纪80年代中苏社会主义改革对比研究

20世纪80年代,中苏社会主义改革几乎同时展开。然而,这两次改革的结果却迥然不同。对这两次改革的对比研究有利于总结我国的改革开放,不断推进社会主义现代化建设。     

Coercion, compliance, and the collapse of the Soviet command economy

Are command systems that rest on coercion inherently unstable, and did the Soviet economy collapse for this reason? Until it collapsed, the Soviet economy did not appear unstable. Why, then, did it collapse? A game between a dictator and a producer shows that a high level of coercion may yield a stable high–output equilibrium, that stability may rest in part on the dictator's reputation, and that a collapse may be brought about by adverse trends in the dictator's costs and a loss of reputation. The facts of the Soviet case are consistent with a collapse that was triggered by the strike movement of 1989.     

The Inter-War Land Reforms in Estonia,Finland and Bulgaria: A Comparative Study

Abstract

^*This study compares the development and performance of the interwar land reforms in Estonia, Finland and Bulgaria: three countries within the so-called Agrarian Reform Zone, which constituted previous parts of the Russian and Ottoman Empires heavily influenced by the Russian revolutions. In spite of their different scope and outlook these land reforms aimed at solving similar problems of an agrarian and socio-economic developmental character. Finland and Estonia underwent wars of liberation when seceding from revolutionary Russia: Finland also had to go through civil war before the land redistributions took place. In Bulgaria, however, land redistribution had been an ongoing theme since the late 1870s when autonomy from the Ottoman Empire was achieved. The interwar land expropriation and redistribution was most profound and radical in Estonia. The gradual Finnish reforms were also radical from the perspective of the precarious political situation they aimed at solving. Bulgaria's less thorough reform was nevertheless radical from the perspective of its agrarian ideological aspirations. These land reforms must therefore be seen as a part of the interwar state-building process and struggle for independence: peasant movements were influential in all three cases and geographical proximity to revolutionary Russia had impacts on their outcomes. The study emphasises that by exploring and comparing the profound interwar land redistributions, we can gain a better understanding of current problems, such as those resulting from the post-socialist de-collectivisation: e.g. the return to small-scale family farming by means of restitution, in countries that were subjugated to a command economy after World War II. For this reason interwar Finland's different road and sustained national independence makes an interesting comparison, since Finland shared several features with the land reform zone countries before the Russian revolution of 1917 and not least during the 1920s and 1930s. In the case of Estonia and Bulgaria, however, the development path was interrupted by Soviet expansion.     

Editors’ introduction transitional economies: Progress and pitfalls

Many Asian countries are undergoing transition from centrally planned to market-oriented economies. The People's Republic of China (PRC) and Viet Nam have been going through this transition since the 1980s, while Mongolia and the former Soviet republics of Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan began their transition in the 1990s with the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991. On the other hand, Cambodia, the Lao People's Democratic Republic, and Myanmar, while they have begun reforms, are still in the early stages of transition. North Korea has probably made the least progress in this regard. This Special Issue on Transitional Economies aims to provide valuable insights for Asia's developing countries still in transition and to provide them with policy recommendations for avoiding the pitfalls of transition experienced in the 1990s.     

前苏联加速开发西伯利亚的历史背景

前苏联加速开发西伯利亚是在美苏“冷战”的国际背景下进行的，具有很强的军事目的；开发西伯利亚的国内原因是要通过调整生产力布局，以增强经济实力，为称霸世界做准备。苏联政府十分重视西伯利亚在实现全苏经济战略总目标中的作用，把加速开发西伯利亚看作是实现全苏经济战略的重要措施。     

Balance sheet expansion and economic growth in China: Crowd in or crowd out?

Balance sheet expansion is crucial to understand the historic path, current slowdown and future trend of economic growth in China. As the financial system transforms national savings into investment, balance sheet expands simultaneously. According to changing impacts of balance sheet expansion on real economy, economic growth in China from 1998 to 2016 can be divided into the crowd-in stage and the crowd-out stage. In the first stage (1998–2007), balance sheet expansion crowded China's real economy in, raised TFP dramatically and accelerated economic growth. In the second stage (2008–2016), balance sheet expansion crowded China's real economy out, with stagnant TFP and decelerated economic growth. Balance sheet expansion has slowed down since 2014, but it continues to exert crowding out effects on China's real economy. We argue that balance sheet expansion is crucial for China's future economic growth. In the long term, structural reforms, especially reforms in the financial system, could increase growth potential significantly. In the short term, financial system reforms should focus on generating sufficient cash flows to boost aggregate demand.     

Soviet oil and the third world

The paper explores various aspects of the relationship between the Soviet Union and the Third World countries in the field of the oil industry. It begins with a historical account of the growth of the Soviet oil industry, and its ownership pattern. But the core of the essay is the role played by the ‘Soviet oil offensive’ in the 1960s and its success in weakening the grip of the oil trade in the disintergration of the world-parity-pricing system, and the emergence of OPEC as a powerful factor in the political economy of world oil. In the final section, the paper assesses the role of Soviet oil exports in the present world context and in the future.     

The global faces of China’s incomplete reforms: a perspective from China’s new intellectual property regime

ABSTRACT

The paper probes into an antithetical aspect of China’s economic reforms in the global context by focusing on the recent developments of China’s intellectual property regime. By analyzing this cutting-edge legal system, it highlights China’s political divergence against its economic convergence in its decade-long reforms, in particular, its state-oriented innovation system as against the world’s neo-liberal economic order. The last decade witnessed China’s preeminent transformation from a passive follower to a proactive advocator of IP standards. However, certain entrenched limits characterizing China’s state-oriented economy and cultural systems such as information blockade and coercive technology transfer serve as catalysts that are apt to provoke acrimonious confrontation between China and major economies. In this sense, China’s incomplete reforms have taken on a new form: as China’s influence on the global economy grows, conflicts of diverse national priorities become more palpable than simple-minded economic cooperation.     

Shortages and the informal economy in the Soviet republics, 1965–89

This study measures the informal economy and shortages of consumer goods in the Soviet republics from 1965 to 1989 to estimate the relationships between these two variables. Using estimation methods, including a fixed‐effect model and the instrumental variable approach, we find that the informal economy and shortages reinforced each other. Results indicate that the Soviet central planning system was difficult to sustain. Substantial heterogeneities across the Soviet republics exist not only in the extent of the informal economy and shortages, but also in the associations between the two variables.     

CUBA'S SOCIAL POLICY AFTER THE DISINTEGRATION OF THE SOVIET UNION: SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT AS LEGITIMACY OF THE REGIME AND ITS ECONOMIC EFFECTIVENESS

Since the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Cuba has experienced a severe economic crisis, and the country's social policy has played an important role in showing the people a raison‐d'ětre for the revolution. This role has become even stronger in recent years, as internal and external actors demand political reforms and economic liberalization. This article first examines the Cuban government's use of social development to counter the demands for changes. It then looks at the extent that government social policy contributes economically to improving the Cuban living standard. The article demonstrates empirically how the leadership emphasizes their social accomplishments whenever demands for change come, and then shows that after the suspension of Soviet aid, Cuban social policy has been able to provide services mainly by relying on human capital and reducing quality materially because of the shortage of foreign reserves. This has limited the economic effectiveness of the services.     

THE FOUNDATION OF THE MEXICAN WELFARE STATE AND SOCIAL SECURITY REFORM IN THE 1990s

Before 1982 Mexico's welfare state regime was a limited conservative one that put priority on the social security of organized labor. But following the country's debt crisis in 1982, this regime changed to a hybrid liberal model. The Ernest Zedillo government (1995–2000) in particular pushed ahead with liberal reform of the social security system. This paper examines the characteristics and the policy making of the social security reforms in the 1990s. The results suggest that underlying these reforms was the restructuring of the economy and the need to cope with the cost of this restructuring. The paper also points out that one of the main factors making possible the rapid execution of the reforms were the weakened political clout of the officialist labor unions due to their steady breakdown during the 1990s and the increase in the monopolistic power of the state vis‐à‐vis the position of labor during the negotiations on social security reforms.     

Structural Changes in a Reforming World Economy: Implications for Indonesia

How will rapid East Asian industrialisation and international trade policy reforms affect Indonesia's economy? Taking an economy-wide perspective and drawing on projections to 2005, based on a global applied general equilibrium model (GTAP), we show the impact of Uruguay Round implementation, and explore other international influences on Indonesia's and neighbouring economies. Trade reforms likely to accompany China's (and Taiwan's) membership of the WTO are projected to boost the competitiveness of Indonesia's primary sectors at the expense of light manufacturing and the overall economy, while failure by OECD countries to honour Uruguay Round obligations to open their textile and clothing markets would reduce industrialisation in the region, slowing growth in its net food imports. The benefits to Indonesia of APEC liberalisations are also reported. All projections were completed in 1997 before the enormity of the financial crisis became clear; follow-on research should quantify the growth slowdown's impact on these results.     

计划经济体制下经济增长的解释

计划经济,在目前经济自由化、经济全球化浪潮中似乎不再受人欢迎,但全面否定计划经济,显然是不符合辩证法、也不符合历史的。苏联经济成功的一面充分说明了计划经济对可持续性的经济增长来说虽然有许多的弊端,但仍有其不可替代的优点。或许,对于自然资源丰富的苏联而言,其解体最主要的直接原因是民众的基本生活不能得到保障、已有福利水平不可持续,而深一层的原因是其极不对称的谈判势力结构。     

Myanmar: building economic foundations

Myanmar began a multifaceted economic reform process in 2011, soon after its political opening. The reform process is far from complete, and its impacts remain questionable. The paper examines progress to date and assesses opportunities and challenges for further reforms. Given the extensive list of development challenges remaining and the limited resources, careful prioritising of reforms is essential. Understanding of its strengths and weaknesses will help identify and sequence reforms and investments so as to maximise the growth dividends. This paper briefly reviews Myanmar's history and its legacy, examines the economy and some of the main policy reforms undertaken since 2011, assesses development potential and weaknesses, and outlines medium and long‐term growth strategies based on the country's specific context and international experiences and practices.     

发达国家反金融危机措施比较及中国未来政策取向

文章比较分析了美国、西欧国家和日本的反金融危机措施,并对发达国家的反危机措施进行简要评价,最后,总结了中国的反危机措施,认为中国政府经济刺激政策已经见效,但仍有诸多不稳定因素。实现中国经济可持续增长,要以危机为契机,推进各项改革,通过制度创新释放经济活力,加大科技教育投入,使科技创新成为中国经济增长的新引擎。     

An overview of the state and priorities of the iron and steel industry in the Russian Far East

This article considers the problems of the Russian Far East for which a new course of strategic development has been proclaimed. The growing demands of the region’s economy for diverse metal products make it necessary to initiate organizational reforms determined by the actual state of things. The reforms will include the construction of new iron and steel works and the development of a full-range iron and steel industry in the region.     

普京新政与中俄合作

打造强有力的经济、强有力的国家政权、强有力的国家军队是普京新任期的既定目标。与2000年相比,2012年的普京面临着同样复杂却完全不同的问题。普京能否和如何超越自己,以怎样的路径实现持续增长、通过改革和创新提升经济与社会进步的质量,某种程度上决定着俄罗斯能否进入新的发展期。新任期内普京将进行稳健的政治体制改革、在确保经济增长的前提下发展创新经济、继续推行平衡务实外交,总体上保持近年来俄罗斯内政外交的延续性。     

Agricultural Marketing and the Possibilities for Industrialization in the Soviet Union in the 1930s

This paper analyzes the theory that Soviet farm marketing was so price unresponsive that rapid industrialization within the framework of the NEP would have been choked off by rising farm prices and inadequate sales. A model of farm marketing is developed for the period 1913–1928 and is embedded in a general equilibrium model for the Soviet economy. Simulations show that farm marketings would have been substantial and growth would have been rapid if the investment boom of the 1930s had been pursued within the marketing framework of the NEP. However, collectivization did accelerate industrialization by increasing the rate of rural–urban migration.     

社会主义革命与落后国家历史宿命浅析——苏东模式失败的历史归宿问题

社会主义革命首先在经济文化落后的国家取得胜利是历史的必然。落后为革命提供了便利,也为社会主义的发展带来了种种弊端。苏联模式、高度集中、计划经济等等,最终促使东欧剧变、苏联解体,苏东模式也以失败告终。