Long-term development of the Russian economy and the problem of labour productivity

This paper analyzes the limitations imposed by the development of the Russian economy on human resources. The contribution of productivity to economic growth in recent years is determined. The key factors affecting the productivity of labor in the Russian economy are revealed. The possible dynamics of production in high-tech sectors under the impact of restrictions on labor resources is reviewed.     

Estimation of the production function with the variable utilization of capital assets in the Russian economy

The paper considers the problem of estimating aggregate production functions taking into account the variable utilization rate of the capital assets that act as an unobservable variable for the macro and meso levels. The proposed approach is based on the microeconomic foundations of the producer’s behavior with the appropriate modification of the problem on optimizing the volumes of production inputs and outputs. Parameter estimates have been given for the Cobb–Douglas-type production function and the performance of the utilization rate of the capital assets in Russian economy over 2002–2014. The high statistical dependence of the performance of investment in fixed capital on changes in the utilization rate of the capital assets has been revealed.     

Health,education, and economic growth in China: Empirical findings and implications

This empirical analysis examines the augmented Mankiw, Romer and Weil's model which considers both health and education in human capital in the framework of Chinese economy. We consider the relationship between per capita real GDP growth and the physical capital, human capital, and health investment in the production function. Panel data models are used in the estimation based on the provincial data from 1978–2005. The empirical evidence shows that both health and education have positive significant effects on economic growth. The results also show that the interaction of health and education stock will not reduce their impact on growth and there is perhaps a trade-off between two forms of human capital investment.     

Macroeconomic analysis of production efficiency in the real sector of the economy: Methods and results

The paper looks at the procedural and instrumental aspects of building an overall index of production resource use efficiency. The use of production function (PF) tools for this purpose is justified. The macroeconomic PF for the real sector of the Russian economy is identified. The dynamics of production efficiency in the period of economic reform is analyzed. The relation of the rate of change of production efficiency and the scale of innovation is investigated.     

Approaches to measuring the dynamics and structure of human capital and assessing its accumulated impact on economic growth

The article presents an analysis of existing approaches to calculating the volume of human capital on the level of the national economy. Possible approaches to calculating the retrospective dynamics of this indicator for Russia based on available statistical information are analyzed. The questions of constructing a model of the production function, comprising the index of human capital as a factor, are illustrated.     

The dynamics of capital assets in the economy of the Russian Federation over the post-Soviet period (1992–2015)

The authors have considered methods for an alternative assessment of the dynamics of capital assets over 1992–2015, which fundamentally differ from those employed by the Russian Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat), and have presented the results obtained on their basis. Losses of fixed assets incurred by the economy over this period in value terms have also been estimated. The reasons for the current crisis of the Russian economy have been shown in connection with the exhaustion of the Soviet material heritage and ways of handling the crisis have been proposed based on the reduction in household consumption and sharp increase in the share of accumulation and savings.     

Strategic Development Outlook for the Energy Complex of Russia

The article discusses the long-term development of the energy complex and its role in the Russian economy in the context of the restructuring of world energy markets and considering the draft Energy Strategy of the Russian Federation for the period through to 2035. Using the SCANER modelling and information complex, representative scenarios for the evolution of world energy markets have been developed, as well as relevant scenarios for the development of Russia’s economy and energy, including the dynamics of domestic consumption of major fuels and energy in view of energy conservation, as well as effective volumes and directions of basic fuel exports. Based on this, the dynamics of extraction and processing of basic fuels, the use of renewable energy resources, and electricity production by various types of power plants are optimized, and the necessary capital investments and returns on the dynamics of domestic prices for fuel and energy are determined. Changes in the main macroeconomic indicators of the contribution of the energy complex to the development of the Russian economy, corresponding to these scenarios, indicate a possible relatively rapid decrease in its dependence on energy exports.     

Interrelations of Production and Investment Activities in the Construction Materials Industries

This paper presents one of the possible versions of the scenario for industrial development of the Russian economy. An analysis of the interrelation of production and investment in metallurgy in 1990–2017 was carried out. The need to consider the experience of investment development in individual industries and manufactures in the design of options for the economic development of the country and the implementation of a selective state policy is substantiated.     

Trade Union and Global Economic Growth

Abstract

This paper develops a simple framework for examining the role of unions in a global economy. It builds on the model of different institutions by comparing America with a flexible wage and Europe with a rigid wage (the existence of union), where the two areas are integrated via perfect capital mobility. We find the necessary condition that the degree of wage orientation of the union is larger than the firm's bargaining power and determines the positive direction on global economic growth. In addition, the effect of union's bargaining power on global economic growth is ambiguous. If the sum of the elasticity of substitution between capital and labour and the output elasticity of labour is smaller than one, or the firms are characterized by a Leontief production function (Harrod–Domar growth model) or an extremely low substituting elasticity (much empirical literature is supported), the union's bargaining power will lead to an increase in the growth of the global economy. In the general Cobb–Douglas production function (Solow–Swan neoclassical growth model), the union's bargaining power will result in a decline in the growth of the global economy.     

Economic crises and unemployment in Russia

This article considers changes in the number of unemployed individuals in conjunction with the dynamics of the production volume in Russia in 1991–2015. An assessment has been given for the quantitative relationship between crisis declines in production and the number of unemployed individuals. Long-term trends determining the dynamics of unemployment under the effect of direct factors of economic growth (labor resources, fixed capital, and scientific and technical progress) have been analyzed.     

数字经济、人力资本对产业结构升级的影响研究

数字经济驱动社会生产各生产要素合理配置、高效利用,推动供需平衡,促进各行业数字化改造,加速产业变革,已成为促进经济高质量发展的助推器。选取2011—2021年31个省份(因数据缺失,不包括港澳台地区)的数据,采用中介效应模型,考察数字经济、人力资本对产业结构升级的影响,发现数字经济对于产业结构升级有明显促进作用,中介效应表明人力资本间接促进产业结构升级,人力资本在数字经济促进产业结构升级中的影响不可忽视。     

广东连南瑶族自治县经济增长的内在动力研究——基于内生经济增长理论

粤北山区与粤港澳大湾区发展战略背景下的发达地区经济发展具有较大差距,要使山区经济发展抓住眼前机遇,使其经济水平跨上新台阶,则需要了解连南县经济增长存在的内在动力。结合连南2000-2017年具体实际,在对其资源禀赋与经济增长现状进行分析的基础上,通过内生增长理论分析其各要素参与经济增长情况,并采用柯布-道格拉斯生产函数进行回归分析得出,连南经济内在动力结构转换可从资本结构优化、人力资本转化和要素驱动转变三方面入手。     

Building a gross regional product accounting system for a regional economy forecast, with special reference to Moscow city

The experience of developing a system of accounts for the production, distribution, and utilization of Moscow’s gross regional product is analyzed. An important element of this study is the calculation of a number of indices currently not employed by statistical offices: the household sector gross value added, hidden compensation and mixed incomes, and imports and exports of goods within the Moscow GRP. The study results were used to develop mathematical tools to predict the Moscow budget revenues and expenditures depending on the long-term dynamics of macrostructural indices of the city’s economic complex. Therefore, the study covered the following: an analysis of the objectives of predicting a regional economy and the necessary system of macroeconomic indices and balances; an analysis of the methodology of developing indices of GRP production, distribution, and utilization, employed by the Russian State Committee for Statistics (Rosstat) and regional statistical offices; and the development of consolidated accounts of the Moscow GRP for 2000–2003 with the necessary additions and corrections to official data.     

Dynamics between government spending and economic growth in China: an analysis of productivity growth

This study investigates the dynamics between government spending and economic growth in China through influencing the productivity growth of human capital byapplying Markov switching estimates for the annual time series data of China over the period 1952–2014. Firstly, we found that the Chinese economy exists in two states including state one with low growth and state two with high growth. Secondly, the consumption spending has significantly positive effect both states, while the military spending has only positive effect in state two. Interestingly, the growth effect level of consumption spending in state two is smaller than that in state one, implying a reducing effect of total factor productivity in state two. Thirdly, the combined effects of consumption spending and military spending with human capital are state dependent. This combined effect is reduced in both states, suggesting that government spending does not improve the productivity growth effect of human capital.     

Higher education,employment and economic growth: Exploring the interactions

ABSTRACT

This article interrogates the impact and nature of South Africa’s post-apartheid economic growth performance through the lens of human capital investment with a particular emphasis on higher education. The South African economy has been characterised by a skills-biased trajectory, ensuring jobs for the better educated. By differentiating between tertiary and vocational training, we find that further education and training (FET) graduates are almost as likely to be employed as school leavers without higher education. We analyse the extent to which the educational attainments of labour affect the nature and trajectory of economic growth in South Africa, by estimating Olley and Pakes’ two-stage regression on a modified Cobb–Douglas production function. The results indicate that the degree cohort contributes to economic growth whilst other higher education institutions, including FET colleges, do not productively contribute to economic growth.     

Intertemporal production and asset pricing: a duality approach

This paper analyzes a firm's intertemporal optimization problemunder uncertainty and presents a new asset pricing model fromthe vantage point of the production side of the economy usingthe duality principle. The intertemporal profit-maximizationproblem is formulated using the familiar cost function, andthe production Euler equation that encapsulates the joint behaviorof production and asset returns is derived. An asset's riskis measured by its covariance with the stochastic discount factorrepresented by the ratio of discounted marginal costs. The riskpremium is determined by the conditional covariances of assetreturns with output growth scaled by the degree of scale economiesand with input price changes weighted by the cost share of aninput. The proposed model has the standard structure of a multibetapricing model and suggests four economic risk factors–outputgrowth, the return on human capital, the return on physicalcapital, and technology shocks–for use in empirical analysis.     

Accumulation and consumption of fixed capital in Russia: An alternative estimate

Official statistical figures of the availability and utilization of fixed capital in the Russian economy are reviewed. The reasons for unauthenticity of these figures are revealed. An alternative estimate of the macroeconomic indicators of capital consumption and accumulation is made based on a comparison of wear and tear and investment volumes. An estimate of the reproduction of fixed capital in 2001 is made by which the amount of consumption is much in excess of accumulation. The case is made for increasing investment in fixed capital and the scale of increase is calculated.     

Key Factors of Recent Chinese Provincial Economic Growth

The aim of this paper is to analyse the factors that affected Chinese provincial economic growth after the reforms of the early 1980s, through a panel analysis (period 1986–2001). The production function approach focuses on human capital, ‘space-serving’ infrastructure, sectoral allocation of labour and institutional changes. Indices relevant for the analysis are elaborated and provincial capital stocks are estimated. The empirical results indicate the positive role of capital stock, human capital and physical infrastructure and underline that sectoral allocation of labour and institutional changes affected the level of aggregate output. A redistribution policy in favour of the inland provinces needs to be implemented so that human capital and infrastructure can be enhanced, bottlenecks can be overcome and investment can be attracted.     

Modeling the Interdependence of the Economy and Power Industry Based on Multiplicative Two-Factor Functions

The paper has studied the change in the electric intensity of the Russian economy over the past 25 years. Equations have been constructed that correlate the electricity consumption with GDP (GVA for key economic sectors) and investment volume. The influence of structural changes and power consumption in particular sectors, as well as the modernization of the key economic sectors on the dynamics of the Russian economy electric intensity, has been identified.     

福建省农村人力资本对农村经济增长贡献的实证分析

中国是一个农业大国,保持农业的可持续发展,农村的安定,农民的稳步增收是中国经济快速发展的基础。本研究以福建省1997-2012年的数据进行实证分析,将人力资本投入作为一个要素引入到修改后的C-D生产函数中,研究农村人力资本在促进农村经济发展过程中的作用并对促进福建省的人力资本投入献策。通过双对数回归分析得出,人力资本存量的系数远高于物质资本投入的系数,说明在农村经济发展的过程中,人力资本具有重要的促进作用,劳动者素质的提高作用非常明显。