Forecast of the basic trends of economic development in Bryansk oblast

This article has analyzed the development of different economic sectors in Bryansk oblast, which indicates that the region has been most significantly affected by the geopolitical crisis compared to the other subjects of the Russian Federation. In particular, this is due to the fact that its transit value has sharply decreased, there are no innovative succinct projects in industry, and the successful development of agriculture cannot serve as an important driver for developing the region. The growing gap in the wage level us provoking the migration of the working-age population of the oblast and reduces its role in Russian economy to food and labor supplies for Moscow and St. Petersburg.     

Analysis and forecast of labor commuting in the Moscow region, the case of Dubna

The proportion of push-pull labor migrants (LC) in the city of Dubna (Moscow region) has been obtained on the basis of microdata for 2001 as well as the industrial composition of their workplaces. Results are presented of the assessed shadow wages, comparative analysis is performed of the residents employed in their home town and LC allowing for the age and gender. Dynamics and forecast of LC in Dubna are presented based on the analysis of economic macroindicators for 2001–2006 and the legislative activity of the city government. It is shown that the results obtained on the basis of micro-and macroanalysis are in satisfactory agreement both with each other and with the data of the earlier authors’ macroeconomic studies of LC in the Moscow region [1, 2].     

中国FDI区域配置效率:总体特征与地区差异

在开放模型中，区域FDI的内生程度是较高的。对大国经济来说，FDI区域配置效率问题意义重大。本文实证研究发现，中国FDI配置效应存在较大的区域差异，就动态趋势而言，东部总体优势相对减弱，其它地区尤其是中部地区综合优势较为明显。进一步的研究表明，在国家、区域间和区域内三个层面上，FDI配置效率影响因素各不相同。国家层面上。市场潜力、公共资本等因素权重较大。在区域问，区住、知识与技术、劳动力成本等因素的作用比较关键。在区域内部。各因素重要性各异。最后，就提高FDI区域配置效率问题，深化对外开放，促进区域经济协调发展问题。提出政策建议。     

对制造业人工成本管理的方法及对策研究

一些人认为人工成本低廉是我国制造业的产品竞争优势所在。但通过投入与产出的分析会发现,我国的制造业往往工资率较低与单位产品人工成本较高并存,存在着人工成本投入效率较低这一严峻问题。加强制造业人工成本管理仍然是提高我国制造业产品竞争力的关键。文章首先从我国制造     

四川省农村劳动力转移就业的有效路径研究

只注重非农产业的发展对农村劳动力的拉力作用,而忽视农业内部对农村劳动力的吸纳能力,就无法真正完成农村劳动力的有效转移。基于此,本文以四川省为例,分析了区域内转移应是当前农村劳动力转移的有效路径,进而指出实施区域内转移的载体是加速农村非农产业的发展,充分重视和提升农业内部的吸纳能力。     

European Inflation and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve

The majority of macroeconomists who have studied inflation dynamics in Europe argue that the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) provides a good way to describe changes in the price level from the 1970 on. However the vast majority of these articles estimate the NKPC using the labor income share as the proxy for real marginal cost. This article argues that the labor share cannot serve as a proxy for real marginal cost because of its countercyclicality and the lack of labor adjustment costs. Once we account for labor adjustment costs, we are able to derive a new marginal cost proxy that is indeed procyclical; however, we find that the NKPC fails to produce coefficients consistent with its underlying structural parameters when a procyclical marginal cost proxy is used. This casts serious doubt whether the NKPC is empirically applicable to Europe or, for that matter, any other country.     

劳动力成本上升与企业的发展道路选择

劳动力成本问题是当前企业不可忽视的一个问题,而劳动力成本的增加已经成为企业的一个重要的成本负担,企业如何应对劳动力成本的增加就成为一个值得研究的问题。文章主要从三个方面分析了劳动力成本上升的具体原因,及其给企业带来的影响,然后通过分离了劳动质量和资本质量的含体现技术进步的生产函数模型来分析企业应该如何应对劳动力成本上升的问题。     

北京市最低劳动力成本变动趋势及其启示

劳动力成本是企业经营成本支出的主要方面,在企业的发展过程中占有举足轻重的地位。文章以北京市最低工资标准为基础,测算了2000--2008年北京市由月最低工资标准、企业应缴纳的社会保险费下限、企业的月住房公积金缴存额下限、带薪休假引发企业间接成本、尚未完全包括的可量化的劳动力成本组成的最低劳动力成本的变动趋势。然后从政府和企业两个层面探讨了中小企业应如何应对劳动力成本上涨的压力。     

Transition from factor-driven to innovation-driven urbanization in China: A study of manufacturing industry automation in Dongguan City

Following the reform and opening up of China, the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region became a center of foreign investment due to its comparative advantages of cheap labor costs and low land use prices. The tide of migrant workers, comprising a large surplus rural labor force that flooded into the PRD region, caused a rapid increase in the urban population. From the 1980s to the 2000s, migrant workers were a key force that drove urbanization in China. The utilization of automation technology in production since the 2010s has increased the number of unemployed laborers and shifted the dynamics of urbanization. This study investigated how automation is applied in production processes and its effects on different industries, namely, those related to textiles, electronic information, and home electrical appliance manufacturing; specifically we sought to examine the complex relationship among automation, the labor forces, and urbanization by illustrating the implementation of automation in production processes and its influence on labor forces and urbanization. This study revealed that companies in different industries implement automation to differing degrees and through varied upgrading paths. All industries can ultimately achieve technological transformation and cross-industry development. For labor forces, automation exerts two simultaneous folded effects, namely, the direct replacement of low- to middle-skilled workers and the creation of new jobs. The penetration of automation into manufacturing industries has changed the dynamics of urbanization and the social spatial structure of cities, leading to a polarization of the labor forces and the emergence of “dual cities”.     

从社会保障角度研究人工成本与企业成本竞争力的关系

人工成本低廉一直是我国企业重要竞争优势所在。但是,随着经济的发展和工资水平的逐渐提高,以及我国社会保障制度的日益健全,国际经济体系中企业责任要求日益完备,企业继续采取低工资、低成本进行国际竞争的空间越来越小。基于此,对我国目前的人工成本状况进行分析,从社会保障的角度提出相关对策,对于维持和提高我国企业成本竞争力,促进国民经济发展,构建和谐社会具有重要的现实意义。本文的目的就在于对这个问题进行一些初步的探讨。     

Occupational injuries as a criterion of professional risk

This paper presents an analysis of occupational injury, which is one of the most important characteristics of professional risk to workers' health. The dynamics and completeness of recording industrial accidents in Russia during different periods of socioeconomic development have been considered, as well as the impact of labor legislation on the quality of injury recording at enterprises of the country. It has been shown that the current official data on the injury rates in the Russian Federation do not correspond to reality, which indicates a need to improve labor legislation in this area.     

The Russian Far East: Searching for a demographic development strategy

The paper analyzes the population dynamics in the Russian Far East, the economic, social and demographic factors of migration processes in the region; the consequences of migration for the social and economic development of the region, the situation in its labor market, etc.     

中国制造业竞争优势与产业结构的转型升级研究

文章结合汇总数据和制造业规模以上企业微观数据,全面测算了中国制造业在面临工人工资上涨冲击时,其单位劳动力成本的变化。发现在2004年之前,总体上看劳动力生产率的提高化解了工资的上涨,单位劳动力成本始终下降。而在2004年后,非劳动密集型产业和劳动密集型产业的轨迹开始分化,劳动密集型产业单位劳动力成本开始上升,而非劳动密集型产业单位劳动力成本依然下降。因此,中国制造业未来的竞争优势需依靠产业结构的转型和升级来带动。     

Tax(i)ing the Poor? Commuting Costs in South African Cities

In this paper, I describe the monetary and time costs of commuting to work in South African cities, and how these have changed in the post‐Apartheid era. I interpret these results in light of a paper by Brueckner, who used a simple urban model to suggest that location and commuting patterns by race could change as a result of the repeal of Apartheid era legislation such as the Group Areas Act that made it impossible for black South Africans to live near the centre of cities. A key finding is that monetary and time costs of commuting in South African cities are high and have increased in the post‐Apartheid period. Journey times are much higher than the OECD country average and a sample of developing country cities. Part of the explanation for increasing average commute times is population growth in South African cities, which has been substantial. Both the population and number of commuters doubled between 1993 and 2013 in the six metropolitan municipalities (metros) analysed in this paper. Since commuting costs a substantial amount and generates negative externalities through congestion I also explore the financing of public transport.     

劳动力成本上升对中国国际竞争比较优势的影响

"民工荒"使得关于我国劳动力成本是否上升,以及其上升是否降低了我国参与国际分工的比较优势这一命题的讨论日益增多。本文提出观点:近年来我国劳动力成本上升显著,但我国国际竞争的比较优势却并不因此下降,原因有如下两点:一是最集中体现我国国际竞争比较优势的行业——制造业工资水平的上升幅度远远小于整体工资水平的上升幅度;二是劳动力工资水平的上升可部分归因于劳动生产率的提高,而这并不会使我国丧失国际竞争的比较优势。本文的实证分析通过梳理劳动力工资水平的变化及其与FD I流入量和出口量变化的关系,印证上述观点。这说明我国国际竞争的比较优势仍然存在,加之我国依然存在大量的农村剩余劳动力,因而不能全盘否定廉价劳动力这一比较优势,技术创新与结构升级的政策不能一刀切,应在充分利用廉价劳动力优势的基础上,使生产率提高的源泉逐步替代人口红利源泉。     

Economic crises and unemployment in Russia

This article considers changes in the number of unemployed individuals in conjunction with the dynamics of the production volume in Russia in 1991–2015. An assessment has been given for the quantitative relationship between crisis declines in production and the number of unemployed individuals. Long-term trends determining the dynamics of unemployment under the effect of direct factors of economic growth (labor resources, fixed capital, and scientific and technical progress) have been analyzed.     

Macroeconomic assessment of the state of regional labor markets in the Asian part of the Russian Arctic

The article analyzes the current conditions of the sector of employment and labor market in the regions of the Asian part of the Russian Arctic (about employment in the European part of the Russian Arctic see No. 1, 2016). Major changes in the structure of the sources of the formation of the manpower resources and its distribution by sectors of activity have been studied. An inertial assessment of the medium-term dynamics of the basic parameters of the regional labor markets has been given.     

Labor Taxation and FDI Decisions in the European Union

This paper uses panel data on bilateral FDI stocks in the European Union to empirically analyze the impact of labor and corporate taxations on FDI decisions. While the effect of corporate taxes on FDI is well documented, the impact of labor taxes on FDI has barely been explored. This is surprising since labor taxation may influence FDI as well; the taxation of labor affects the production cost and the ability to attract and retain productive labor, and thereby it also, ultimately, impacts the return to the investment. By employing a Heckman two-step estimation model, which controls for possible sample selection bias due to many zero bilateral observations, we find that labor taxes do influence FDI decisions.     

On the efficiency of labor markets

Summary Important changes in labor market parameters and a growing awareness of the cost of equity-promoting policies have led to increased interest in the efficiency of labor markets. This paper uses the orthodox result in the case of perfect competition to survey efficiency aspects of deviating assumptions: collective negotiations, imperfect information, risk and dynamics associated with education and technology. Perfect competition is found an inadequate standard, as many ‘imperfect’ market modifications enhance efficiency. This is a translation and revision of my inaugural lecture at the Universiteit van Amsterdam. May 16, 1983.     

中部地区参与产品内国际分工的影响因素分析——基于河南省的实证研究

本文以河南省为例,运用2000～2007年间数据实证检验中部地区参与产品内国际分工的影响因素,结果表明:劳动力资源的成本、效率和素质是制约其参与产品内国际分工的主要因素;规模经济和宏观经济因素制约着中部地区承接外向型经济的转移和外包。