Macroeconomic adjustment programmes in the euro area: an overall assessment

Since the start of EMU (Economic and Monetary Union), the euro area, and more broadly the global economy, experienced an unprecedented credit boom. The expansion of credit was particularly strong in Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Cyprus and all of them subsequently needed official financial support. In each of the four programmes, financial assistance has been provided and promised against the commitment of each country to fulfil certain economic policy conditions contained in the macroeconomic adjustment programme. In general, a macroeconomic adjustment is a process driven by policies but also by changes in private spending behaviour (consumption, imports, investment) and improvement in competitiveness that countries are required to undertake after a large shock. In the case of the four countries, the shock emerged as a consequence of an excessive accumulation of imbalances in different parts of the economy: in the public sector in Greece, in the housing and banking sectors in Ireland, external imbalances in Portugal and in the banking sector in Cyprus. The paper looks at the feasibility of the fiscal adjustment comparing the macroeconomic conditions in the four countries and emphasising the role of the fiscal multipliers in the process. It also assesses the fall in the output in a comparative framework, stressing the role played by the different components of demand either in amplifying the effect of the fiscal consolidation or in offsetting it. In addition, it considers formulation of the programmes as well as their implementation with most attention devoted to reforms aiming at improving competitiveness, growth and employment in the framework of a cross-country approach.     

进一步完善服务贸易统计体系研究——以浙江省宁波市为例

完善服务贸易统计体系,做好国际服务贸易统计工作,为服务贸易的发展提供咨询、监督、预警和指导,是大力发展服务贸易所必须解决的一项基础性课题。由于服务贸易统计体系涉及部门较多,情况分散复杂,在推动和发展服务贸易的过程中尚未形成一个整体协调的有效工作体制,建立并完善宁波市服务贸易统计体系的步伐比较缓慢。文章认为,完善宁波服务贸易统计体系必须改善国际收支申报的细节工作,优化服务贸易申报过程;改进统计方法——大力提倡抽样调查法收集统计数据;确立有效的服务贸易统计主体;加快宁波服务贸易统计的制度化、信息化和科学化建设。     

Poverty in Zambia: Levels,patterns and trends

This article presents the results of the analysis of levels, patterns and trends in the incidence of poverty in Zambia between 1991 and 1998, based on data captured in nationally representative surveys. In 1998, about 73 per cent of the households in Zambia were poor, the majority of which were extremely poor. Most poor households were in rural areas, with wide inter- and intra-provincial and district variations. The incidence of poverty also varied according to employment status and sector, as well as by district, gender, marital status, education and stratum of head of the household. In general, households headed by females, those without any formal education, unpaid family workers, the inactive, the self-employed, and those in agriculture, forestry and fishing recorded the highest incidence of poverty, with those employed in private households being affected the worst. In spite of the general increase in poverty nationally, most rural provinces registered declines while urban areas experienced increases in the incidence of poverty during the period under review. Furthermore, except for the agricultural/forestry, mining and quarrying, and electricity and gas sectors, the incidence of poverty increased in all the other sectors while remaining almost the same in the real estate sector. The direction and magnitude in the incidence of poverty between 1991 and 1998 were also associated with gender, education, employment status, employment sector, and residence of head of the household, as well as size of the household. Based on the analysis, the article strongly recommends revision in the measurement of poverty, investigation of the types of coping strategies adopted by the poor, and the extent to which these impact on the general well-being and productivity of vulnerable households in Zambia. The need for more qualitative data has also been highlighted.     

大数据时代下的企业角色定位

大数据时代的来临，对各个领域传统的企业经营管理模式带来严峻挑战，企业管理将发生巨大变革。未来大数据在企业管理中运用将十分广泛，但大数据时代机遇与挑战并存，新兴企业不断兴起，大批企业被淘汰出局。所以，在新一轮的竞争中，企业必须在明晰大数据特点的情况下，变革企业管理思维，并结合大数据在企业管理中的应用，以此找准企业在大数据时代下的角色定位。同时，有利于企业发展的稳定大数据环境，离不开政府的引导与支持，基于此，阐述了政府在推动大数据发展中的积极作用。     

“十二五”战略定位与地区发展因应:重庆证据

以重庆十二五规划总体思路研究为案例,构建地区发展定位的理论分析框架,分析影响和制约因素,详细阐述重庆未来发展的五大定位:经济上成为西部的重要增长极和商务之都;城市上建成西部最大最强的绿色城市群和基础设施网络;开放上建成西部对内对外开放的重要高地;生态上建成长江中上游最大的生态安全保障区之一;社会发展上建成全国统筹城乡改革发展示范区。基于市情分析、发展阶段判断以及战略定位,重庆十二五战略目标可概括为三个率先,即率先在西部地区实现全面建设小康社会,率先在西部地区转变发展方式,率先在西部地区实现城乡统筹。     

农村消费品市场的现状、问题及对策研究——以赣州市农村消费品市场为例

由于我国城乡经济发展水平及收入水平的差异,消费品市场发展极不平衡。城市高档耐用消费品市场经过多年的发展,多数产品的消费已处于饱和状态；而全国占人口总数70%的农村,其高档耐用消费品的消费仍处于成长初期。因此,开拓农村消费品市场这一潜力巨大的市场对繁荣国内消费品市场、推动经济增长具有重要的现实意义。本文以赣州市农村市场的调查数据为依据,在分析农村消费品市场存在的主要问题和原因后,提出了开拓农村消费品市场的对策。     

中国服务业FDI决定因素的实证分析

本文通过对我国服务业利用FDI的影响因素进行实证分析,验证各个解释变量对被解释变量的相关程度,先对数据的平稳性进行分析,然后综合运用ADF平稳性检验,Granger因果关系和协整检验,对各自变量对因变量的影响程度及其原因展开了深入分析。     

社会流动对村庄信任模式的冲击

在社会化条件下的传统型中国乡村,生产、生活、乃至交往都被卷入了一个开放、流动、分工的社会化体系之中,以往那个封闭、保守、内敛的传统乡村社会中的乡村信任模式在新的社会环境下受到了不可避免的冲击与影响。本文从社会流动对于传统村庄信任模式的冲击的角度思考在社会转型期条件下构建村庄信任模式的理性道路。     

Rural Nonfarm Employment and Incomes in Chile

This article analyzes the evolution of rural nonfarm employment (RNFE) and income in Chile during 1990–96. The data used come from the National Socioeconomic Survey (CASEN), and from a household survey undertaken by the authors in two municipalities in 1999. The latter contrasted two zones, very different in terms of economic dynamism and rural poverty. We show that during the period, RNFE and incomes increased 10% and 18%, respectively, in 1996, reaching 39% of rural employment and 41% of rural incomes. The rate of multiactivity (the share of households participating in more than one sector) was only 20%, lower than expected, indicating a tendency toward economic specialization in rural income strategies. The determinants of such employment are mainly household characteristics, in particular variables related to human capital, such as the age and gender of the household head, and the schooling of the household members, although also important are access to credit and physical capital. The level of nonfarm income of rural households is determined mainly by the economic context, in particular the economic level and dynamism of the overall zone and the quality of the roads. It is proposed that policies to develop RNFE should be geared to zone characteristics, and should in general favor investments in education, in roads, and in access to credit. Moreover, households headed by women should be the object of special attention. To promote such policies, it will be necessary to address important gaps and weaknesses in the public institutional structure.     

论善意取得制度在不动产上的适用

善意取得是各国民法物权法上的一项重要的法律制度,它主要解决财产所有人与善意受让人之间的冲突,确认和保护善意受让人在交易中已取得的物权。不动产善意取得制度的研究,重在解析我国不动产善意取得的构成要件和法律效力,须以不动产善意取得制度的渊源和理论基础为出发点,同时,对我国应该实行不动产善意取得制度的问题进行深入探讨,还有必要综合考察不同法系国家的善意取得制度。     

中共刘集支部与《共产党宣言》

山东省东营市广饶县博物馆收藏着一本1920年8月出版的中文译本《共产党宣言》，这是1975年在广饶县刘集村发现的。许久以来，人们多认为中国最早的《共产党宣言》全译本是1920年4月出版的。毛泽东同志在谈到他的思想转变时，曾多次讲到他在1920年春第二次旅居北京期间，阅读过陈望道翻译的《共产党宣言》。     

我国城市营商环境的评价指标体系构建及其南北差异分析

我国经济发展南北差异较大,城市营商环境对于南北区域经济发展具有重要影响。基于生态系统理论,从公共服务、人力资源、市场环境、创新环境、金融服务、法治环境、政务环境七个维度构建我国城市营商环境评价指标体系,对我国南北区域的城市营商环境进行比较分析。结果表明,南方地区城市营商环境整体上优于全国平均水平,且南方地区城市间营商环境差异相对较大;北方地区城市的营商环境得分整体上低于南方地区、全国水平,但北方地区城市间营商环境差异相对较小。同时,在七个分项指标方面,南方地区城市得分全面高于北方地区城市。在优化区域城市营商环境方面,南方地区的城市要进一步打破城市间营商环境发展不均衡格局,建立城市间营商环境评比机制;北方地区的城市需依据区域特征制定更具针对性的优化城市营商环境的政策。     

Inequalities on the eve of mass migration: Agricultural holdings in Sweden and The United States in 1845–1850

Abstract

A comparison of economic conditions in Sweden and America in the middle of the 19th century is of vital interest because it highlights the push-and-pull aspects of migration to America. One method of analysis of this topic would be to compare the distribution of wealth in real estate in Sweden in 1845, say, with that in Illinois or Wisconsin in 1850, or with the distribution in Minnesota in 1860, or, more technically, for Swedes in those states and at those times. Surely the results of such a comparison would point vividly to the fact that the average individual could do better in America; letters from America bear strong testimony that this indeed was true.     

Assessing black progress: voting and citizenship rights,residency and housing,education

Farley discusses progress US blacks have made in the areas of voting and citizenship rights, residency and housing, and education. A major goal of the civil rights movement was to permit blacks to influence the electoral process in the same manner as whites. Most important in this regard was the Voting Rights Act of 1965; the proportion of southern blacks casting ballots increased sharply since the early 1960s. The Civil Rights Act of 1875 outlawed racial segregation in public accommodations, but by the turn of the century, Jim Crow laws in southern states called for segregation in most public places. Common customs and government policy in the North resulted in similar segregation of blacks from whites. The Montgomery bus boycott and similar protests in dozens of other cities led to enactment of Title II of the Civil Rights Act of 1964, which proscribed such racial practices. By the late 1960s, blacks in all regions could use the same public accommodations as whites. In most metropolitan areas, de facto racial segregation persisted long after the laws were changed. Supreme Court decisions and local open-housing ordinances supported the right of blacks to live where they could afford. However the major change was the Fair Housing Act of 1968, which outlawed racial discrimination in the sale or rental of most housing units. The separation of blacks from whites did not end in the 1970s. Today, in areas which have large black populations, there are many central city neighborhoods and a few in the suburbs which are either all-black or are becoming exclusively black enclaves. Most other neighborhoods have no more than token black populations. Another major effort of civil rights organizations has been the upgrading of housing quality for blacks. By 1980, only 6% of the homes and apartments occupied by blacks lacked complete plumbing facilities (down from 50% in 1940). Unlike the modest changes in residential segregation, racial differences in housing quality have been greatly reduced. By 1960, black students approached parity with whites in terms of measurable aspects of school facilities. In 1940, young blacks averaged about 3 fewer years of educational attainment than whites; the time is nearing when the years of schooling completed by blacks and whites will be the same. In small and medium-sized cities throughout the country, public schools are generally integrated. However, the situation in the largest metropolitan areas is very different. Today, large public schools are segregated, in large part, because blacks and whites live in separate school districts.     

Patterns of concentration in the newspaper industry

Abstract

This short paper, presented in 1967 as a thesis, is a resume of seven rather more specialised articles by the same author, together with some conclusions drawn from them. The original articles, running to 253 pages, described the concentration which has taken place in the structure of the Swedish press since 1945, resulting in a reduction of at least one-third in the number of daily newspapers and in the replacement, to a large extent, of fierce competition by local quasi-monopolies. The purely factual events were already known in some detail, in particular from the report of the Investigation into the Press (SOU 1965: 22) for which the author's own efforts were largely responsible. He is also responsible for the view, which rounds off his analysis of the structural development of the Swedish press, that growth and decline in newspapers are the result of a self-generated process of increasing strength within given marketing areas (e.g. local districts), the interaction of circulation, advertising and revenue automatically ensuring a continual increase in the lead of the largest paper until it finally eliminates its weaker competitors. This process is called by the author ‘the circulation spiral’ (upplagespiralen). The principle can be recognised in various forms in recent developments in the press of many western countries. Attention has been drawn to it by the present reviewer in connection with the even higher mortality rate in the Danish press, and it would appear to be relevant to the study of other branches of the economy.     

Migration,Education and Rural Development: Evidence from China 2000 Population Census Data

There has been a concern that the growth of towns has been stalled recently and with it, the creation of non-farm jobs in rural industries. This study uses 2000 census tabulations to look at this issue by examining in-migration in towns in three provinces in China, Zhejiang, Henan, and Sichuan. In addition to the diversified patterns of town in-migrants revealed in these provinces, this paper finds that town in-migrants generally possess higher levels of educational attainment than those of the local population in towns, especially in the less-developed western and central provinces of Sichuan and Henan. There is also evidence that as towns themselves grow wealthier, such as in Zhejiang, better educated people in rural areas were likely to shift their jobs from the farm to non-farm sector in towns nearby, instead of leaving the countryside to migrate to other provinces. Labor markets in towns in less-developed western and central provinces were more flexible in accommodating in-migrants, whereas in the coastal province of Zhejiang, labor markets tend to become segregated between migrants and the local population.     

Exchange rate movements in emerging economies - Global vs regional factors in Asia

The aim of this article is to analyse the main determinants of emerging markets' exchange rate movements, particularly in Asia. For this purpose, we implement a dynamic latent factor model to investigate the drivers of 24 emerging countries' exchange rate movements and decompose the patterns into three components: a global common factor, a regional factor and a country-specific factor. Our results reveal that, in the whole period of 2000–2015, the common global factor is by far the most important determinant of exchange rate variations for Asian economies and, albeit to a lesser extent, for Latin America. However, after 2005, there is a strong increase in the explanatory power of the regional factor in Asia, from 5.6% to 45.1%, and to 49.7% in the period of 2011–2015, which shows that it is becoming the dominant factor in this area. Then, we use a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model and an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to show that the regional factor in Asia, estimated from the dynamic latent factor model, is mainly explained by Chinese economic variables. More particularly, our results highlight that the bilateral exchange rate of China, both the onshore and the offshore rates, and the macroeconomic climate in China greatly influence the regional factor in Asia in the long-run. These results give some evidence of a Renminbi zone in the long-run and are robust to the inclusion of two other major currencies in Asia, the Japanese Yen and the Korean Won, notably in the long run.     

THE MOMENTOUS GOLD RUSHES

Gold discoveries in Australia in 1851 and New Zealand in 1861 galvanised the economic development of Australasia and had spillover effects in Britain, in ship technology, and even in the trans-Atlantic trade. The gold rushes quickly transformed economic, social, and political life. Moving around the continent in an anti-clockwise direction, they were to help found the northern port cities that grew to service the gold seekers. While the major strike in Western Australia in the 1890s out-produced the earlier period, Australia saw a third gold peak in the 1990s. The article surveys the contribution of the rushes to the development of Australasia.     

Gender Difference in Returns to Education Independent of Gender Wage Gap in Korea*

This study examined the difference between male and female groups’ return on investment (ROI) in education independent of the average gender wage gap. Women’s additional ROI in education was significant and positively estimated. Furthermore, the ROI in women’s education was consistently higher than that in men regardless of educational stage, except for graduate education. These gender differences were greater in the younger generation than in the older generation and have decreased significantly in the recent ten years in high school education. Although the additional ROI in women’s education was positive in the field of culture and arts, education’s effect on wage increases in professional occupations was less than in men, especially in the fields of law and medicine. In addition, we show that gender differences in ROI in education were countercyclical. A base effect, large wage declines for low‐educated women during recessions, could explain this phenomenon. However, coinciding with the existence of positive cash flow news in the stock market that promises good business performance, a significant wage increase among highly educated women was found.     

Global rebalancing: Effects on trade and employment

A sustained reduction of global current-account imbalances must include a decline in the share of household consumption in aggregate demand in the United States and the opposite development in China. Accordingly, import demand would decline in the United States and increase in China. Given non-homothetic demand preferences, the resulting change in the income distribution of global import demand affects both the intensity and pattern of other countries’ exports. Simulations suggest that, for the world economy, the net effect of this shift would be a decline in industrial exports, especially from labor-intensive sectors producing consumer durables. A multilaterally coordinated rebalancing that would also include an increase in the share of household consumption in aggregate demand of developed country surplus economies would reduce these adverse effects on trade and employment. Apart from the countries undertaking rebalancing, developing countries in East and South-East Asia face the greatest adjustment pressure from global rebalancing.