The underestimation of project duration: an explanation in terms of a time-horizon

The thesis of this note is that time is inherently underestimated because estimators are influenced by a time-horizon which has no objective existence. The bias will increase with the complexity, unfamiliarity and uncertainty of the task. Implications of this are indicated, and its bearing on a study recently published in this journal is briefly touched upon. An independent test would probably require the methods of individual or social psychological research. The possibility of improving time-estimation would exist if the time-horizon to which individuals are subject could be ascertained.     

The accuracy of project cost and duration estimates in industrial R&D

Abstract . This study of the accuracy of cost and duration estimates, both initial and intermediate, for industrial R&D projects, is based mainly on analysis of the records of 475 projects in four varying research organizations. Mean ratios of actual to estimated cost ranging from 0.97 to 1.51 are obtained, and mean ratios of actual to estimated duration from 1.39 to 3.04. The results are generally similar to those of other British and American studies, with which they are compared.
There is no evidence that the information gained as projects progress enables their future cost and duration to be estimated more accurately; at best, the accuracy of such estimates remains constant. No effect of project size on estimate accuracy is found; effects of project length on accuracy, and of time (i.e. increasing experience) on accuracy are found only in one organization each. The pattern of expenditure over time is examined, and found on average to be not far from linear, though with wide individual project variations.
When the individual project ratios are reduced by constant factors representing optimistic or pessimistic bias (derived from the mean ratios, and assumed to be characteristic of the firm), and then subjected to a log transformation to make their distribution more symmetrical, the remaining variation, which is a measure of the inaccuracy of estimation for the individual projects, is closely similar in the four organizations, and not greatly different in the organizations covered by other studies when the data are similarly treated.     

确定建设工程施工投票最终报价的技巧

建设工程施工投标最终报价是投标单位以标书编制的预算坐（标价）为基础，综合考虑各种因素后对预算标价进一步修订的报价，对是否中标将产生直接影响。章介绍了承包商选择工程标段位置和编制投标书的方法，论述了如何根据标工程报价的不同类型，确定工程施工投标最终报价的技巧。     

The application of a research project selection method

This paper describes the application of a linear programming model to project selection and resource allocation problems in two industrial R & D laboratories. Mathematical models have not been widely used in practice because of the inherent uncertainty of research. The model discussed here yields information about the outcome of decisions under conditions of uncertainty. The elements of the model are developed, using simple examples, and the form of the complete model outlined. Benefit evaluation is carried out using probabilistic networks and uncertainty in benefits included by utilizing the concept of certainty equivalence. The use of the model in practical situations is discussed, with examples of the information obtained from the solution, and sensitivity studies to investigate the uncertain environment are described. The result is a flexible model, which produces information necessary for planning purposes and which is acceptable to practising R & D Managers.     

The IRR of a project with many potential outcomes

This article shows that the internal rate of return (IRR) of a project's expected cash flow stream is a weighted average of the IRRs offered by the project's (many) possible future outcomes, where the weights are calculated using the outcome probabilities and invested capital balances. Because the invested capital associated with a particular realization is a function of the Macaulay duration of the cash flows in that outcome, the weights depend on the outcome probabilities and the effective length of each cash flow stream.     

施工项目管理微机化

党的十五届四中全会,对深化国营企业改革又提出了更高的要求,建筑施工企业的改革应该说是国企改革的先锋。施工企业应该看到,市场的变化必然要引起企业内部机制和措施上的变化,具体讲就是要在继承原来良好的管理经验和方法的基础上,精耕细作、精打细算;要通过现代化的管理手段,努力提高企业的经济运行质量。解决这个问题的关键是统一管理手段,提高管理档次,也就是要在施工企业内部逐步建立和实现项目管理微机化。1 当今建筑市场的显著变化是推行项目管理微机化的客观要求1994~1997年间,天津市的施工任务大多是一些体积大、建筑等…     

项目管理应遵循的原则

项目管理是企业管理之基、效益之本,当前,项目管理失衡、创效能力不足等问题普遍存在。从实践经验看,项目管理优劣决定了企业效力与可持续发展能力。项目管理优,则企业强大兴盛、政通人和;项目管理劣,则企业动力缺失、举步维艰。结合本企业项目管理实践,笔者认为加强和优化项目管理,应遵循以下原则：     

The functions of project evaluation

In trying to explain the difficulties of implementing evaluation models it can be useful to study how evaluations of product development proposals are carried out in practice when they are not influenced by normative models. In this article some results are reported from an in-depth study of how project proposals were evaluated in two Swedish companies operating in the same industry. One was among the most innovative in the industry, its product development activities had led it into a series of new products and had resulted in a very high profitability and an extremely high rate of growth. The product development of the other company had resulted much more in variations in existing products than in major innovations. Growth was very slow and profitability was approaching a critically low level. The way project proposals were evaluated in the companies proved to differ substantially. In one company the dominating evaluation mode was one where the task is considered to be to estimate what effect an acceptance of the project proposal will have on overall goals, such as profitability and growth. This is called the rationalistic approach. In the other company an evaluation mode with the opposite characteristics was used. The evaluators consider a few conspicuous or at least easily visible characteristics of the project proposal. On the basis of these a picture of the project is created which is perceived as good or bad. This picture is the basis for the decision. This is called the impressionistic approach. In the case reported here the rationalistic mode was used by the least successful and least innovative company while the impressionistic mode was used by the most successful and most innovative company. The paper presents arguments for interpreting the relationship between evaluation mode and performance not as coincidental but as causal. It is argued that even if the impressionistic mode may seem irrational from a traditional point of view, it is superior to the rationalistic one in some important respects.     

Integrated rural development in Nigeria: The Funtua project

The Funtua Agricultural Development Project is the oldest World Bank financed rural development project in Nigeria. This article evaluates the impact of the project on the area and its implications as a prototype for rural development in Nigeria. Increased agricultural production has not occurred to the extent and in the direction that the project expected. The project's activities appear to be concentrated on large-scale and progressive farmers rather than on the traditional farmer which could result in increased income differentials and the creation of a ‘landless’ class. The costs of the project are too high for the benefits involved. Extension of the project to other parts of the country would be difficult to organize and manage due to the lack of trained manpower.     

中国的饮水安全保障工程

尊敬的主席,女士们,先生们： 很高兴参加全球水伙伴（中国）举办的“饮用水安全高级圆桌会议”。首先,我代表中华人民共和国水利部对会议的召开表示热烈祝贺。     

河道疏浚技术在郊区河道整治中的应用

以上海市郊区河道疏浚工程为实例,阐述了河道疏浚方法的选定、设备的采用、施工中的质量控制、测量、竣工验收、疏浚后的淤泥处理等方面的做法及经验。     

Piecewise procurement of a large-scale project

This paper studies the optimal piecewise procurement of a large-scale project. In the unique Markov Perfect Equilibrium (MPE) of the dynamic procurement game, it is found that (1) unlike the static setting, the procurer's optimal strategy depends on the number of suppliers and more importantly, it is nonmonotonic. As one more supplier participates in the procurement auction, the procurer softens competition in the initial stages by including more cost “types” while increasing competition in the mature stages; (2) this, in turn, implies that existing suppliers might favor participation of additional suppliers; (3) absent scheduling and/or resource constraints, the procurer prefers to procure the project as one piece if the suppliers' technology exhibits constant or increasing returns, and no additional suppliers are enticed to bid; and (4) the optimal dynamic mechanism can be easily implemented via a sequence of dominant strategy auctions of the Vickrey type.     

The use and development of a research project planning and progressing system

This paper discusses the use and development of a research project planning and progressing system based on the system described by Baker & Smith (1967). It is an attempt to highlight some of the practical problems involved in setting up and developing such a system at Colworth/Welwyn, the largest Unilever research laboratory in the United Kingdom. The problem at Col worth/Welwyn, as at Port Sunlight, was to improve communications at all levels of management, and, in particular, to direct senior management's attention to those areas where it was most needed.
The system described here is only a project control system, and does not formally cover other aspects of research management such as project selection and result implementation. A project control system was chosen as the starting point because it was regarded as the most important, and the easiest to implement throughout the whole laboratory.
This paper was first presented at a conference to the R & D Study Group of the Operational Research Society, February 1970.     

The importance of a common project management method in the corporate environment

Like so many other major companies in the world today, Ericsson runs most of its product development operations as projects. The increasing complexity of telecommunication solutions often requires that many technologies are brought together in one turnkey project, such as telephone switching, mobile radio networks, DECT radio Access and others. Competence centres within Ericsson, spread out over many countries need to work together in'cross functional' projects.
While the advantage of the project concept is obvious, carrying out projects in which various Ericsson companies participate, in different countries, can prove to be a very complex undertaking. Many such projects are running simultaneously and often compete for resources and priority with ever increasing time constraints. In order to succeed we need a common methodology for managing projects.
This methodology must provide Ericsson with a shared view on how we allocate scarce (human) resources, the roles that need to be played by all those involved in the project and the supporting line functions, the criteria to be used for decisions to be taken inside the project and in relation to other projects, and many more issues that require a common view. A shared view on project management is also a prerequisite for handling conflicts within an organization in which the project, as a working form, is predominant. Various Ericsson companies and units have achieved different degrees of maturity in their management of projects. This combined experience has produced a methodology called 'PROPS' that Ericsson uses today. The widespread use of PROPS has given Ericsson a common terminology and common perspective of projects. This contributes to shorter lead-time, time to market and time to customer. In this article is explained some of the PROPS features and how PROPS is applied.     

中厄石油合作项目现状及发展前景

中国石油厄瓜多尔项目是中国石油企业较早开展的海外石油合作项目之一,该项目在勘探开发、生产销售、经营管理等方面都取得了良好的经济和社会效益.近年来,包括厄瓜多尔在内的一些南美国家为保证石油收益,陆续采取了一系列加强控制本国油气资源的措施,出台了相关限制性规定.同时,厄国内政治经济形势也较为严峻.这些因素都使得厄瓜多尔的国际石油合作环境日益复杂化.面对这种复杂的经营形势,中国石油厄瓜多尔公司有针对性地对该国投资环境进行风险分析,研究投资策略,制定相应措施,使中国石油集团与该国石油公司在稳定合作的基础上不断扩大合作领域.     

The clock project: gears as visual-tangible representations for mathematical concepts

As we have noticed from our own classroom experiences, children often find it difficult to identify the adequate operations learned in mathematics class when they are solving mechanical-operators problems in Technology class. We wanted to design a project that exploits the idea of a hands-on relationship between mathematics and technology to teach students the concept of ‘transmission coefficient’ in schools. Our purpose was to bridge mathematical knowledge and mechanical parts in technological devices. Our belief was that visual-tangible representations enhance human cognition by scaffolding the information process. We supplied a kit with rubber foam (Fomi) and balsa wood parts to construct an analogical clock. This included a series of gears to work with three different ratios. The project was conducted in 2007 and 2008, with 38 students ranging from 10 to 14 years of age. The students were from the 5th and 7th grades in two different schools. The project included six stages of both theory and hands-on work. In a final stage, the students were given a written test. All students were able to make workable systems of their design for a time-measuring device. This proved important for technological education. On the other hand, manipulating gears along with visual reasoning strategies allowed all students to achieve an understanding of operations with fractions. We think this is a major achievement in mathematical education.     

The relative importance of project success dimensions

Traditionally, the success of a project is assessed using internal measures such as technical and operational goals, and meeting schedule and budget. More recently, it has been recognized that several other measures should be used to define project success. These measures reflect external effectiveness: the project's impact on its customers, and on the developing organization itself.
In our study of 110 defense projects performed by Israeli industry, we used a multidimensional approach to measure the success of defense projects. Based on previous studies, we defined four dimensions of success: meeting design goals ; benefits to the customer ; benefits to the developing organization ; and benefits to the defense and national infrastructure . For each project, we asked three different stakeholders (the customer, the developing organization, and the coordinating office within the Ministry of Defense) for their views on the relative importance of these dimensions of success. Analysis of the data revealed that the dimension benefits to the customer is by far the most important success dimension. The second in importance is meeting design goals . The other two dimensions are relatively unimportant.     

Project team aging and performance: The roles of project and functional managers

The authors have explored further the effect of the tenure of an R&D group (that is, the length of time in which it has existed) on its performance. Several studies have shown that groups tend to reach a peak of productivity after a few years and decline thereafter. However, it seems that not all teams so decline and the aim of the authors' study reported in this paper was to see what could be learned from those groups that continued to be successful.
They therefore studied a sample of 181 teams comprising 2000 subjects drawn from a wide variety of R&D organizations. Their objectives were first to pick out those teams that remained effective and second, to discover the secret of their success. Group performances were assessed subjectively by senior members of each organization. Group tenures were measured by calculating the average time each individual member had spent in the group. Further information was obtained from questionnaires completed by participants.
Analysis of the results led to the surprising conclusion that there was no evidence whatever for the previously reported curvilinear relationship between performance and tenure. Nevertheless, some long-tenured teams per-formed much better than others and better than newly-formed teams, for which the authors have sought an explanation.
From information deduced from the questionnaires they conclude that the crucial factor is the extent to which the functional manager (department head) as distinct from the project manager nurtures individual researchers, especially in ensuring that they keep abreast of progress in relevant areas of expertise. The role of the project manager on the other hand is to maintain connection between the team and institutional objectives.