谈当前建筑产品价格的改革

谈当前建筑产品价格的改革杨庆（中南财经大学投资系武汉４３００６４）党的十四届三中全会决定，将计划经济逐步向市场经济过渡。在新形势下，当前建筑产品价格应如何改革，本文就此谈谈看法。在计划经济时期，我国的建筑产品没有当作商品。由建筑企业按国家的规定，编制...     

建立健全工程质量检测评价体系的重要意义

伴随着我国“入世”的步伐，一同跨入新世纪世贸组织大门的建筑业，也如同其它行业一样由计划经济时代向市场经济时代迈进的重要时期。这一时期各行各业都竖起“市场决定一切“的旗帜，争相搭乘“拿来主义”的直通车，向着国际惯例这一既定目标快速逼近。我们建筑业在近5年时间里，体制改革的进程之快，力度之强都超出了人们的预期。政府有关部门根据我国社会主义市场经济的原则和建立现代企业制度的要求，     

建筑经济学科的新课题

建筑经济学作为研究建筑业的经济关系和经济活动规律的专门学科，在新中国已有40多年的历史了，近来有一种说法：建筑经济学是计划经济的产物，它已完成了历史任务，我国进人社会主义市场经济体制的新时期，这门学科已不需要了。对此说法，有识之士是不会同意的。当然，产生于计划经济时代，以计划经济理论为基础的建筑经济学，不能适应社会主义市场经济体制的要求，这是事实；但不等于社会主义市场经济体制就不需要建筑经济学了。恰恰相反，社会主义市场体制的建立，给建筑经济学科提出了一系列的新课题，要求建筑经济学界给以回答。首先是…     

论工程造价管理体制与建筑产品价格形成方式的关系

本文在标准招标模型的基础上,结合我国从计划经济向市场经济型时期工程造价管理体制的变化,建立了包含体制因素在内的、新的招投标机制选择模型。通过此模型本文对我国目前建筑产品价格形成中出现问题的根源进行了剖析,并对经济转型时期工程造价管理体制的进一步改革提出了政策建议。     

建筑市场经济结构分析

深化建筑企业的改革,促进我国建筑业稳定发展,是我国目前及今后相当长一段时期要进行的重要工作之一。随着投标招标制的引入,促进了建筑市场的形成。本文试图应用市场经济理论,研究建筑市场的内在规律,探讨对我国建筑市场进行宏观调控的手段,以供建筑市场宏观管理参考。     

略论建筑产品价格改革的战略目标

自从1980年4月中央恢复建筑业2.5％的法定利润率以来,建筑业探索建筑产品价格改革之路已经整整七年了。但是,时至今日,建筑产品价格改革的步子基本上没有迈开,收效甚微。其原因固然是多方面的,但对改革的战略目标不甚明瞭,恐怕是其中一个重要原因。 一、应当选择什么样的战略目标 作为建筑产品价格改革的战略目标,至少应当包括以下两方面的内容: 第一,必须反映我国社会主义初级阶段的经济特征,即有计划的商品经济的基本要求;     

公共财政建设对税收制度的要求

所谓公共财政就是市场经济下的财政，随着经济体制改革的深入，我国从计划经济体制逐步转到构建市场经济体制上来，这就决定了我国的财政必须相应地从原有的计划模式转到市场模式公共财政上来。这样，建立公共财政就必然对原有税收制度提出新的要求，可以概括为三点：     

市场经济条件下人事档案管理模式初探

改革开放以后，我国的经济体制已经从计划经济模式转为了市场经济模式，与此相关的人事档管理制度，也需要进行改革。本文在充分考虑社会主义市场经济的客观条件下，对人事档案管理的新模式进行了探讨。     

新制度的实施对金融企业经营的影响及其对策

为了适应社会主义市场经济的需要，财政部颁发了《企业财务通则》和《企业会计准则》(以下简称两则)，并根据《两则》制定了一系列行业企业会计制度和财务制度，对企业财会法规制度进行了重大改革。它标志着我国财会制度由计划经济模式向社会主义市场经济模式的根本转轨。农行系统决定从1994年元月1日正式实施，本根据     

加强建筑企业财务管理的新举措

建筑业是我国的支柱产业,在国民经济中占有重要地位。建筑企业具有流动性、生产周期长、涉及面广等特点,在资金筹措、产品价格形成,工程价款结算方式、成本预算及考核等方面与其     

Forecasting commodity prices out-of-sample: Can technical indicators help?

Economic variables are often used for forecasting commodity prices, but technical indicators have received much less attention in the literature. This paper demonstrates the predictability of commodity price changes using many technical indicators. Technical indicators are stronger predictors than economic indicators, and their forecasting performances are not affected by the problems of data mining or time changes. An investor with mean–variance preference receives utility gains of between 104.4 and 185.5 basis points from using technical indicators. Further analysis shows that technical indicators also perform better than economic variables for forecasting the density of commodity price changes.     

Forecasting bulk prices of Bordeaux wines using leading indicators

Agricultural price forecasting has been being abandoned progressively by researchers ever since the development of large-scale agricultural futures markets. However, as with many other agricultural goods, there is no futures market for wine. This paper draws on the agricultural prices forecasting literature to develop a forecasting model for bulk wine prices. The price data include annual and monthly series for various wine types that are produced in the Bordeaux region. The predictors include several leading economic indicators of supply and demand shifts. The stock levels and quantities produced are found to have the highest predictive power. The preferred annual and monthly forecasting models outperform naive random walk forecasts by 27.1% and 3.4% respectively; their mean absolute percentage errors are 2.7% and 3.4% respectively. A simple trading strategy based on monthly forecasts is estimated to increase profits by 3.3% relative to a blind strategy that consists of always selling at the spot price.     

考虑市场力的短期边际电价预测

电价波动较负荷波动剧烈,使得整个电价的预测精度降低。造成这种价格波动的主要原因是由于在电力市场中,发电商拥有的市场力具有能够支配电价上下波动的能力,使得电价的变化更加难以预测。因此市场力在电价预测中是必须考虑的重要因素之一。提出将市场供需比指标作为电价预测的一个输入量,将其引入到预测模型中作为影响电价的因素,使预测精度得到提高。     

浅谈对工程造价及管理问题的认识

我国的建设工程造价管理改革仍处于起步和过度阶段,市场经济体制的内在要求与经济运行的现状存在着矛盾,是工程造价体制改革的背景。从工程造价领域看,虽然市场经济体制要求将工程定价权交给当事人,但施工企业仍依赖于现存的预算定额体制去计价。     

Forecasting the New York State economy: The coincident and leading indicators approach

Currently there are no reliable summary indicators of the economic and fiscal condition of states and localities. This deficiency has hampered the efforts of policy makers at the sub-national level to monitor changes in the economic environment and predict how those changes will impact the fiscal health of governments. This paper attempts to fill this analytical vacuum by providing summary indicators of economic and fiscal health for New York State. The models developed are based on the single-index methodology developed by Stock and Watson [(1991). A probability model of the coincident economic indicators. In K. Lahiri and G. H. Moore (eds.), Leading economic indicators: new approaches and forecasting records (pp. 63–85). New York: Cambridge University Press]. This approach allows us to date New York business cycles and compare local cyclical behavior with the nation as a whole. We develop a leading index of economic indicators which predicts future movements in the coincident indicator. The Stock and Watson approach is used to create a fiscal indicator which acts as a summary indicator of revenue performance for New York. In addition, we explore the ability of our economic indicator series to predict future changes in state revenues. We find that changes in the leading indicator series have significant predictive power in forecasting changes in our revenue index.     

工程招标投标概算的控制措施研究

随着我国市场经济的逐步发展,加入WTO已成为现实,各个领域与国际惯例接轨是不可避免的,在未来的经济发展中,市场因素是决定因素,国际惯例是促进经济发展的有效工具。在工程招标、投标的过程中,只有通过公开、公正、公平的工程招标投标,选择技术设备力量过硬、履约能力强、标价合理的专业队伍中标,提高工程质量,才能降低设计、施工、监理等各环节、方面的费用。     

Leading Indicators for Euro‐area Inflation and GDP Growth*

In this paper, we evaluate the role of a set of variables as leading indicators for Euro‐area inflation and GDP growth. Our leading indicators are taken from the variables in the European Central Bank's (ECB) Euro‐area‐wide model database, plus a set of similar variables for the US. We compare the forecasting performance of each indicator ex post with that of purely autoregressive models. We also analyse three different approaches to combining the information from several indicators. First, ex post, we discuss the use as indicators of the estimated factors from a dynamic factor model for all the indicators. Secondly, within an ex ante framework, an automated model selection procedure is applied to models with a large set of indicators. No future information is used, future values of the regressors are forecast, and the choice of the indicators is based on their past forecasting records. Finally, we consider the forecasting performance of groups of indicators and factors and methods of pooling the ex ante single‐indicator or factor‐based forecasts. Some sensitivity analyses are also undertaken for different forecasting horizons and weighting schemes of forecasts to assess the robustness of the results.     

Predictability of future index returns based on the 52-week high strategy

In a landmark paper, George and Hwang (2004) show that a stock's 52-week high price largely explains the momentum effect and that a strategy based on closeness to the 52-week high has better forecasting power for future returns than do momentum strategies. We find that the 52-week high strategy is unprofitable when applied to emerging markets indices, and that it is significantly less profitable than the corresponding momentum strategy. Overall the 52-week high effect is not as pervasive as the momentum effect.     

基于神经网络的股市资产收益率识别

本文以BP神经网络来识别中国股市不同行业未来的资产收益率,来检验财务数据的有效信号的假定,输入神经元选取了安全性指标、盈利性指标、成长性指标、现金流量结构分析指标四大类指标,共15个最为经典的财务指标,用以预测不同行业的未来超额收益率。预测结果显示,平均预测误差为0.7%,表明神经网络在分析行业未来盈利能力有很强的分类功能。模型分析证实财务数据在行业层面上有十分强烈的信号。同时,预测方法为投资者掌握未来投资资金流向有实用价值。     

Forecast on silver futures linked with structural breaks and day-of-the-week effect

Silver future is crucial to global financial markets. However, the existing literature rarely considers the impacts of structural breaks and day-of-the-week effect simultaneously on the volatility of silver future price. Based on heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) theory, we establish six new type heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) models by incorporating structural breaks and day-of-the-week effect to forecast the volatility. The empirical results indicate that new models’ accuracy is better than the original HAR model. We find that structural breaks and the day-of-the-week effect contain much forecasting information on silver forecasting. In addition, structural breaks have a positive effect on the silver futures’ volatility. Day-of-the-week effect has a significantly negative influence on silver futures’ price volatility, especially in the mid-term and the long-term. Our works is the first to combine the structural breaks and day-of-the-week effect to identify more market information. This paper provides a better forecasting method to predict silver future volatility.