The Timing of Technology Adoption by a Cost-minimizing Firm

Received December 7, 1999; revised version received July 26, 2001     

企业采用新技术的时点博弈分析

技术创新可以为企业带来超额利润,具有极大的经济价值,然而新技术的不确定性和风险性又使得企业不会立即采用。本文通过构建双寡头垄断博弈模型对企业采用新技术的时点进行研究,证明企业采用新技术时存在一个最佳时点,在这个最佳时点之前,企业应采取等待策略。     

The Determinants Of The Adoption Of Advanced Manufacturing Technology

The paper investigates empirically the decision of firms to adopt ‘Advanced Manufacturing Technologies’ (AMT) based on a comprehensive specification of a ‘rank model’ of technology adoption using firm-level data for Swiss manufacturing. The explanatory variables include numerous dimensions of (anticipated) benefits from and costs of technology adoption allowing for uncertainty as well as for information and adjustment costs. Moreover, the effect of complementarities between various functional groups of AMT (design, fabrication, communication, etc.) as well as of learning from the use of previous technology vintages within such functional groups is analyzed, Finally, the size-dependence of the adoption decision is studied in detail. The model yields a quite robust pattern of explanation across estimates with different adoption variables (time period of introduction of AMT, intensity of use of AMT, etc.) with plausible differences of the results based on the alternative adoption measures used.     

绿色经济发展中政府介入时机与政策选择——基于技术采用均衡时间的比较静态分析

发展绿色经济推进经济转型是实现科学发展的核心。市场自身转型的滞后是影响绿色经济发展的重要因素。转型具有公共物品的性质,公共财政的本质意味着政府介入从而消除滞后的合意性。绿色新技术采用的滞后是造成转型滞后的关键,新技术采用路径的均衡时间受多种因素影响从而滞后的程度也就不同;但均衡时间的比较静态分析结果表明,新技术创新的强度、市场需求、贴现率、技术采用成本、既有生产成本以及企业行为等因素的改变都会影响均衡的采用时间,这些都为政府的介入提供了基础。     

自助服务技术采纳的前因与模式:文献综述

通过系统梳理自助服务技术研究文献,总结了两类自助服务技术采纳前因——认知型前因和情感型前因,归纳出三种自助服务技术采纳模式——认知驱动模式、情感驱动模式及认知和情感综合驱动模式。研究表明:在自助服务技术采纳前因研究中,认知型前因所占比重很大,而情感型前因所占比重相对较小;三种采纳模式对自助服务技术采纳现象均起到了很好的理解和预测作用。最后,提出了自助服务技术采纳研究的发展方向。     

Adoption Of Advanced Manufacturing Technology And Firm Performance In The Netherlands

This paper presents characteristics of firms that employ advanced manufacturing technology (AMT), explores the pattern of adoption of such technology, and traces the effects of adoption on the evolution of employment and productivity. The study uses linked firm-level data on production, factor inputs and on advanced manufacturing technology. It is found that the percentage of firms that employ advanced technology increases with higher labor productivity, higher export-sales ratios, and especially larger firm sire. Corrected for interactions, however, only initial size and the initial capital-labor ratio aid in predicting adoption of AMT. Conditional on adoption of AMT it is seen that intensity of advanced technology inputs decrease with firm sire and with labar productivity. Finally, firms which employed AMT in 1992 show higher average growth rates of (toral factor) productivity and employment between 1985 and 1991.     

Timing and Commitment of Environmental Policy,Adoption of New Technology,and Repercussions on R&;D

We investigate the interplay between environmental policy, incentives to adoptnew technology, and repercussions on R&D. We study a model where a monopolistic upstream firm engages in R&D and sells advanced abatement technology to polluting downstream firms. We consider four different timing and commitment regimes of environmental tax and permit policies: ex post taxation (or issuing permits), interim commitment to a tax rate (a quota of permits) after observing R&D success but before adoption, and finally two types of ex antecommitment before R&D activity, one with a unique tax rate (quota of permits), the other one with a menu of tax rates (permit quotas). We study the second best tax and permit policies and rank these with respect to welfare. In particular, we find that commitment to a menu of tax rate dominates all other policy regimes.     

Adoption of health information technologies: the case of a wireless monitor for diabetes and obesity patients

This paper explores what determines the adoption of health information technologies through the use of a case study of a wireless service prototype developed for patients with diabetes and obesity. A technology acceptance model was used as the basis for developing the theoretical framework, which was later tested through a field study. Results indicated that the usefulness of an e-health service was affected by the quality of service, its compatibility with users’ lifestyle, the quality of support, the quality of information presented in the service, usage time, image, accessibility, and ease-of-use characteristics of the service. Designers should develop services that do not require much usage time as users do not want to spend much time using the service. In addition, users should be able to access data presented in the service quickly and easily when they need it. Customisable menu items and short cut keys can be used to make data access quick and easy.     

吸收能力对新技术采纳时机的影响

本文通过引入吸收能力并假设潜在的新技术采纳厂商可以凭借吸收能力实现对购买技术的自我改进,构建了一个两时期的非对称双寡模型,研究了吸收能力对新技术采纳时机的影响。研究结论为:该双寡模型存在两种均衡,即分离均衡和混合均衡。在分离均衡中,吸收能力强的厂商倾向于作为跟随者延迟采纳新技术,而吸收能力弱的厂商作为领先者即时采纳可得的新技术。混合均衡的结果是抢先进入均衡或等待均衡。另外,外部知识的性质对于新技术的采纳也有重要影响。     

采用RFID技术的供应链分析——从技术和商业角度

本文较深入地分析了在供应链上采用射频识别（RFID）技术以及其应用所面临的挑战和产生的商业意义。预计未来数年RFID技术的应用会迅速增加,而目前在使用的RFID面临的主要障碍包括标准化、互操作性、成本和人们对其了解不足等。本文采用一种基于RFID技术的主要用途的分类框架模型描述了一套RFID系统的基本组成部分,主要包括电子标签、阅读器和天线,并列举实例说明了它们如何在供应链系统中协同工作。我们的分析表明,RFID的广泛采用需要克服相关技术人员不足、资源稀缺性、标准化、立法和财务等方面的挑战,以便在供应链管理中各参与企业能共享相关信息,导入数据仓库,实现业务整合,从而更高效地获得更多经济利益,提高市场竞争力。     

Optimal combination of pollution prevention and abatement policies: The case of agricultural drainage

The adoption of pollution prevention and abatement practices is examined in the context of a model of exhaustible resource use with a backstop technology. For the sake of concreteness, the paper focuses on the problem of water-logging caused by the subsurface accumulation of agricultural drainwater. In modelling this problem, a region's underground capacity to store drainwater is considered an exhaustible resource, while the installation of subsurface drainage is viewed as the corresponding backstop technology (or abatement practice). The exhaustible resource is typically over-exploited due to common access problems, which forces a suboptimally fast adoption of the abatement practice. Conservationist irrigation technologies, such as drip and sprinkler systems, tend to reduce drainwater generation, and their adoption could increase social welfare by delaying the abatement stage. Public policies are suggested to increase the adoption of such conservationist technologies. Data from California is used to illustrate the results and to demonstrate the efficacy of the model for policy purposes. While the setting used for the analysis in this paper is quite specific (i.e., water-logging), the same general modelling ideas may be applied to many other problems of environmental degradation.     

Herd Behaviour in Adoption of Network Technologies

In technology adoption, herd behaviour can lead to a suboptimal outcome as shown, among others, by Choi (1997). However, empirics find little support for the idea that a less efficient technology can conquer the market and lock out a more efficient one. Accordingly, we improve and generalize Choi's results, by introducing an additional source of uncertainty: the economic environment. We investigate how the economic environment can affect herding and consequently the efficiency of the technology choice. The result is a smaller adoption bias. In the limit, firms may optimally experiment with the new technology that turns out to be social welfare improving.     

The Impact Of Technology Adoption On Firm Productivity *

In this paper an attempt is made to theoretically and empirically explore the impact of technology adoption on firm output and productivity. The theory is based upon a modified Cobb Douglas production function with capital, labour and technology adoption as arguments. Three versions of the model with varying degrees of endogeneity are developed and then tested upon a data set relating to the adoption of five different process technologies by 217 firms in the UK engineering industry over the period 1981–1990. All the results indicate that technology adoption has a positive impact on output and productivity.     

农业企业采纳大数据技术影响因素研究——基于ISM模型的实证分析

为提升大数据技术在农业领域的应用深度与广度,进一步挖掘农业数据资源,推动农业供给侧改革。基于189份农业企业调研数据,运用ISM模型,分析了农业企业采纳大数据技术影响因素及其关联关系与递阶层次结构。提出加大技术的研发力度,提高核心设备和技术的自主知识产权水平,加强大数据技术产业协作,培养企业数据管理意识与大数据技术型人才,加强大数据技术公共示范工程的宣传作用等对策建议。     

IT采纳作用下组织冗余与企业绩效的关系

研究了企业IT采纳作用下组织冗余与企业绩效的关系,考虑了IT采纳水平和IT采纳时间对该关系的调节效果。运用"中国企业信息化500强"中上市公司的面板数据进行验证,发现企业IT采纳实施后,在IT采纳时间和IT采纳水平的调节下,4种类型的组织冗余与企业绩效存在不同的关系。     

基于TOE框架的企业采纳RFID决定性因素研究

RFID即无线射频识别技术,是一种发展迅速的物联网技术。近年来,不少企业开始尝试采纳RFID以提高绩效和竞争优势。为了解释企业采纳RFID的决定性因素,研究者借助TOE框架开展了较多的实证研究,从技术背景、组织特征和外部环境的三大维度分析了影响企业采纳RFID的决定性因素。文献分析发现,技术复杂性、技术兼容性、成本、标准不统一、组织准备、高管支持、IT能力、环境不确定性、交易伙伴命令、竞争压力、政府支持和变革推动者是企业采纳RFID的主要决定性因素。研究结论既为RFID应用的相关者提供了管理启示,也指引了未来的研究方向。     

Adoption of network technologies in the presence of converters

In many high-tech industries, the emergence of new digital technologies allows companies to develop converters to overcome technology incompatibility. In this paper, we analyze the effects of converter introduction on the adoption process of competing, incompatible technologies in the presence of network externalities. Converter introduction may accelerate, extend or reverse the technology lock-in process. We determine which conversion options are profitable for weak as well as for dominant incumbents, depending on the timing of converter introduction and the degrees of conversion. We find that the optimal strategy for weak incumbents is to introduce full one-way converters early. For dominant incumbents, the optimal conversion option is to provide two-way converters with partial compatibility for the users of the competing network at a later introduction time. We illustrate our analytical results with numerical examples.     

Green Accounting for an Externality, Pollution at a Mine

This paper takes a value-added approach to ``green'accounting at an individual microeconomic unit, a mine. Capacities forextraction and for abatement of pollution are chosen subject to anenvironmental regulation. The implications for accounting for resource andenvironmental degradation are discussed. Depreciation is not quantitativelyunique, but can be compared qualitatively with a condition involving shadowprices. The costs of defensive expenditures contribute to increasing greenNNP, but depreciation of the resource is a charge against GNP in computinggreen NNP. Income from capital is the return on the undepreciated values ofextractive capacity, abatement capacity and the resource, and is a part ofnet domestic income.     

高速铁路建设时机：基于我国城市面板数据的计量分析

高速铁路建设时机影响运输资源配置效率与机会成本,也会影响区域社会经济发展.本文从建设时机影响机制入手,建立了由城市经济属性、城市社会属性与城市区位属性等的综合触发时机分析框架.以高速铁路有无作为因变量,运用触发机制模型分析高速铁路建设时机.实证结果显示,城市经济属性是高速铁路项目建设的主要影响因素,其中,可支配收入水平每提升1％,高速铁路建设触发概率会提高0.9％以上;城市的市场潜力或第三产业区位熵每提升1％,高速铁路建设触发概率会提高0.8％左右.当人均可支配收入达到8万元时,东中西部均可有效触发高速铁路建设.社会属性与区位属性并不能单因素引致高速铁路的触发机制.     

企业绿色技术创新驱动绿色发展探析

文章基于党的十八大提出的大力推进生态文明建设战略,从推进绿色发展加快生态文明建设的思路出发,对企业绿色技术驱动绿色发展问题进行了研究。文章运用宏观与微观相结合、理论和实践相统一的研究方法,在阐明了企业绿色技术创新是推进绿色发展的必然选择的基础上,从宏观和微观两个层面提出了绿色技术创新驱动绿色发展的途径和方法。从微观层面指出了企业绿色技术创新驱动绿色发展的基本途径,即企业在生产方式上,要通过开发利用绿色技术,建造绿色企业,发展绿色生产等措施以实现企业绿色技术创新;在技术运用上,要大力开发清洁生产技术和资源化技术,以推进企业绿色技术创新成果转化;从宏观层面给出了企业绿色技术创新驱动绿色发展的对策建议,即在宏观保障上,积极建构有利于企业绿色技术创新的社会舆论、政策制度和市场体系,以保障企业绿色技术驱动绿色发展的实施。