Deposit drains on “interest-paying” banks before financial crises

This paper conducts an econometric test of Diamond and Dybvig’s [Diamond, D., Dybvig, P., 1983. Bank runs, deposit insurance, and liquidity. Journal of Political Economy 91, 401–420] theory of bank runs as interpreted by Chari [Chari, V.V., 1989. Banking without deposit insurance or banks panics: lessons from a model of the U.S. national banking system. Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review 13, 3–19] and Calomiris and Gorton [Calomiris, C., Gorton, G., 1991. Origins of banking panics: models, facts, and bank regulation. In: Hubbard, R.G. (Ed.), Financial Markets and Financial Crises. NBER and Univ. Chicago press, Chicago, pp. 109–173]. We test whether or not seasonal deposit drains on New York banks coincide with the bank panics of 1873 and 1893 in the United States. We use individual bank level data to illuminate the reason for withdrawals. The evidence reveals that the panic of 1873 could have included a seasonal interior drain. A seasonal interpretation of Diamond and Dybvig’s model cannot be applied to the bank panic of 1893.     

“Post‐Truth,” “Alternative Facts” and “Fakenomics”

South African companies are accused of hoarding profits to accumulate large amounts of “idle” cash, as well as of being the perpetrators of massive illegal capital flight. This paper argues that much of the claimed corporate cash is either offshore or belongs to banks. It reminds that bank deposits increase when companies borrow, not when they retain profits. It shows, too, that measures of massive capital flight actually reflect data errors. Exaggerating, through faulty methodology the extent to which companies have cash or may be involved in illegal capital flight is unhelpful. It exacerbates already‐fraught government‐business relations, and complicates the search for solutions to South Africa's economic problems.     

The “hidden” side of the “flying-geese” catch-up model: Japan’s dirigiste institutional setup and a deepening financial morass

Akamatsu’s original “flying geese” (FG) growth model is often used as a frame of reference for both further conceptual elaborations and empirical explorations. So far, only the positive results of FG development have been focused on and emphasized in connection with Asia’s phenomenal growth in the precrisis period. The Japanese economy, supposedly Asia’s lead goose, is in the eleventh consecutive year of stagnation. How has such a once successful lead goose come to be stricken by financial woes? This paper points out that Japan’s once miraculous FG growth was made possible because it established an effective dirigiste catch-up regime in the early postwar period but that Japan’s present financial predicament is paradoxically a path-dependent outcome of this FG strategy. The institutional, especially financial, dimension of FG strategy needs to be taken into account to explain why such a strategy once proved effective but later culminated in a deepening financial morass. The FG model should encompass not only the industrial dimension of catch-up but also its institutional, particularly financial, dimension.     

“Capture” of anti-poverty programs: An analysis of the National Rural Employment Guarantee Program in India

Using pooled household level data for the Indian states of Rajasthan and Andhra Pradesh we find that the size of landholdings is a negative predictor of participation in the National Rural Employment Guarantee Program (NREGP). In state level analysis this pattern survives in Rajasthan but reverses in Andhra Pradesh where we notice a positive relationship. This paper examines whether this sign reversal in Andhra Pradesh is indicative of program capture in Andhra Pradesh and better targeting in Rajasthan. We compare land inequality, ratio of NREG and slack season agricultural wage rates, political interference, and geographical remoteness across the two states and conclude that program capture may be an issue in Andhra Pradesh, largely because of these reasons. We also find evidence of complementarity between NREGP and the Public Distribution System (PDS), implying that the real income transfer through food subsidy needs supplementation.     

“Regional questions”

Publications Reviewed:

Royal Town Planning Institute, 1986: Strategic Planning for Regional Potential. A discussion document.

Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, 1986: Regional Policy-A Fresh Approach.

Armstrong, H. and Taylor, J. 1987: Regional Policy: The Way Forward. The Employment Institute.

Northern Region Councils Association, 1986: The State of the Northern Region.

South East Economic Development Strategy (SEEDS), 1987: South-South Divide. An exposition of the SEEDS project.     

”Uneven development“

John Allen and Doreen Massey (eds), 1988: The Economy in Question. London: Sage Publications, £8.95 paper.

Doreen Massey and John Allen (eds), 1988: Uneven Re-Development: Cities and Regions in Transition. A Reader. London: Hodder and Stoughton, £7.50 paper.

Kevin Morgan and Andrew Sayer, 1988: Microcircuits of Capital: “Sunrise” Industry and Uneven Development Oxford: Polity Press. £35.00 cloth.     

Discussion of “The Psychology of Billing”

Hansen, Jackson, Schaefer, and Stewart (2018) examine the effects of three contextual features on tax professionals’ billing decisions in a case involving issue‐specific tax research. In this discussion, we present a tax fee model. In contrast to determining a bill, our model views tax fees in a more comprehensive perspective. We subsequently use this model to discuss the design choices and limitations of their study and to provide suggestions for future research.     

China's transition towards the market: “Socialization” of the safety net

Reform of the state-owned enterprise sector is probably the most strategic area of reform during China's transition towards a market economy. For efficiency improvements to be possible, stateowned enterprises must be able to adjust the size and nature of their operations in response to market signals, adding or shedding workers as necessary. However, given that housing, pensions, and healthcare, among a myriad of social welfare services, are tied to the enterprise, labor mobility is highly constrained. This makes it difficult to reallocate redundant labor across occupations, enterprises, and locations. Clearly, for more efficiently-operating labor markets to emerge, worker access to housing and other welfare benefits must be delinked from employment in the enterprise. This paper discusses the possible ways of breaking the link and strengthening the social safety net. The emphasis here being on the urban sector, issues related to safety net provisions in the rural areas, albeit of great importance, will not be discussed at length.     

“Creating jobs — meeting needs”

Centre for Local Economic Strategies, 1988: Meeting Real Needs — Creating Real Jobs. Research Study Series No. 1, Alberton House, St. Mary's Parsonage, Manchester M3 2WJ.£10.00.     

The “North-South” controversy and Britain's regional problems

The extent of regional economic disparities in Britain has recently become the focus of considerable controversy. Attempts have been made to portray the existing situation in terms of a “North-South divide” or as “two nations”. Opponents of this point of view have argued that no such stark division of the country exists, and that prosperous areas can be found in parts of the North just as depressed areas can be found in parts of the South.

This paper considers the pattern of regional disparities which now prevails in Britain. Section I is a detailed presentation of the existing situation. Section II considers the question of how sharp a division there now is between different parts of Britain, followed, in Section III, by a discussion of the process of change which has brought about the regional disparities which we now observe. Implications for government policy are then considered.