IS-LM: The Hicksian journey

Summary In the economics profession John Hicks is mainly known for his work during the 1930s. This paper is aimed at tracing the further development of Hicks' thinking, focussing on his IS-LM apparatus. During the 1950s Hicks used IS-LM to elucidate several issues, as in his Trade Cycle book and his review of Don Patinkin's Money, Interest and Prices. In the ensuing exchange Patinkin showed several weaknesses of IS-LM and pointed to new directions for research: the development of more elaborate models of the transmission mechanism and disequilibrium theory. But Hicks did not really participate in these developments, since, owing to methodological considerations, his thinking diverged more and more from mainstream economics.I would like to thank Jürgen Backhaus, Peter de Gijsel, Jan Snippe, Vic Van Rompuy, Arjen van Witteloostuijn and an anonymous referee for their comments on a former draft. Naturally, only the author is responsible for the opinions here expressed, as well as for any remaining shortcomings.     

Het duopoliemodel van van der weel

Summary In a recent article in this journal (1970, pp. 458–490) Van der Weel has developed a duopoly model founded on the thesis that the reaction functions of the duopolists can be derived from the profit maximization hypothesis and that, therefore, the set of equilibrium prices is determined endogeneously. The authors argue that this conception is not justified and that both the static and dynamic versions of the model are based on a reaction pattern in the sense of Launhardt.     

Towards an analysis of tax effects on labour market and allocation: A micro/macro approach

Summary Tax effects on labour market and allocation are analysed with a sectoral model which is based on the microeconomic theory of the behaviour of economic agents. The model contains a highly disaggregated household sector, an enterprise sector, equilibrium unemployment on the labour market and a detailed modelling of institutional aspects of the tax and social security system. The model is calibrated for 1985. Simulation results show that temporary increases of world trade and higher value-added tax rates do not affect the equilibrium unemployment rate in the long run. A higher replacement rate of unemployment benefits increases unemployment and a tax reform containing lower marginal and average tax rates reduces unemployment.The authors thank F.J.H. Don, C.J.J. Eijgenraam, F.H. Huizinga and R.M. van Opstal for assistance on the household model, the cumulated production structure approach, the wage model and the model of firm behaviour respectively, and other colleagues of the Central Planning Bureau for useful comments.See Shoven and Whalley (1984) and Borges (1986) for reviews, and Keller (1980) for an application to The Netherlands.See, for instance, Abel (1980), Summers (1981), Bruno and Sachs (1985), Van de Klundert and Peters (1986).Ginsburgh and Mercenier (1988) review AGE modelling and the disequilibrium approach.     

The effects on unemployment of reducing social security contributions: A general equilibrium analysis for Belgium

Summary At the end of 1987, a group of Belgian economists suggested, with an eye to the increase in employment, to reduce social security contributions paid by firms and to compensate the resulting loss in government income by an increase of excise and value-added tax rates. We have constructed a general equilibrium model to study the consequences of such a measure and show that the reduction of unemployment is twice as large as what calculations using macroeconomic models had shown.Very useful (though far from unanimous) comments on a previous version of this paper were provided by Mathias Dewatripont, Peter Kooiman and Jean Waelbroeck. Before starting to work on this paper, one of the authors thought that the proposal made by his Belgian colleagues was unrealistic, and that this would obviously come out as a result of a general equilibrium model. Alas! Once the results were gathered, they pointed in the other direction and he, nolens volens, had to accept the consequences of his own construction. We are grateful to the Ministry of Economic Affairs (Energy Program) under contract 86-07R and toActions de Recherches Concertées under contract 84-89/65 for financial support.     

How to derive keynesian results from first principles: A survey of new-Keynesian economics

Summary In the 1980s theoretical research in macroeconomics was dominated by what has become known as new-Keynesian economics. The principal aim of new-Keynesian economics is to explain how Keynesian results can be reconciled with the neo-classical principles of utility and profit maximization. This paper provides a survey and an assessment of New Keynesian economics. In our view, the theoretical foundation of new-Keynesian economics would be strengthened if more institutional detail is added to the analysis. The real challenge for new-Keynesian economics is to develop macroeconomics (and microeconomics) from a theory that takes the working of markets seriously.We would like to thank David Colander, Paul Davidson. Theo van de Klundert and Simon Kuipers for their comments on this paper and Esther Langeveld for research assistance. Of course, the usual disclaimer applies. An extended version of this paper, which addresses teh empirical evidence in substantially more detail is available as Research Memorandum no. 488 of the University of Groningen. Parts of section 3 are based on Van Ees (1991) and Garretsen (1992).     

The long wave — a real phenomenon?

Summary To explain the decline in economic growth after the beginning of the 1970s, several authors have reverted to the theory of the 40- to 60-year-long Kondratieff cycle. This article concentrates on the empirical foundations of this cycle. After a critical survey of the important investigations by Kondratieff, Imbert and Van Duyn, the thesis of the long wave is subjected to a new test on the basis of time series of indicators of real economic growth in Great Britain, France, (West-) Germany, and the United States. The results of this investigation are clearly negative with respect to the existence of a long wave in real variables in these countries.I wish to thank W. Driehuis and H.A.A.M. Thoben for their comments on an earlier draft of this article.     

Uit De Economist Van 1863

O.Van Rees,Antwoord aan den heer Mr. S. Vissering, hoogleeraar te Leiden, over de bank-kwestie. (blz. 451/2).     

Otto Mønsted and the early margarine industry:

Abstract

The story of the Danish margarine matador, Otto Mensied has not previously been researched in depth. This paper gives a short outline of the career of this international businessman. The main emphasis is on his involvement in the British market. The eclectic theory of foreign direct investment has recently been expanded to cover international networks or alliances. Using this framework we offer some explanation of the fact that Mensted's British operations for some time were a threat to the Dutch early movers, Gebr. Jurgens and Van den Bergh. Their first cooperation agreement of 1908 may be interpreted as a response to the threat of a superior alliance between Mensiea Ltd., its suppliers and its distribution channel.     

Tinbergen's work: Change and continuity

Summary This article provides an overview of Tinbergen's economic writings, comprising well over 900 publications. Six broad areas have been distinguished to allow for the classification and discussion of Tinbergen's economic work. These six areas embody the change in Tinbergen's areas of interest apart from the shift from physics to economics early in his career. Tinbergen's work, however, is not only characterised by change of areas but also by continuity in approach. To mark this continuity four main characteristics of Tinbergen's work have been elaborated. The article concludes with Tinbergen's observations on the achievements to be expected from scientific research.J. Kol is Associate Professor of International Economics and Economic Integration at the Faculty of Economics of the Erasmus University in Rotterdam; P. de Wolff is Emeritus Professor at the University of Amsterdam and was Director of the Central Planning Bureau in The Hague as successor of J. Tinbergen. The authors are grateful to Mrs. I.M. Lageweg and Mr C.J. van Opijnen for their assistance with references.     

Reviews

Book Reviewed in this article: M. M. Postan. Essays on Medieval Agriculture and General Problems of the Medieval Economy. M. M. Postan. Medieval Trade and Finance. Richard W. Kaeuper. Bankers to the Crown: The Riccardi of Lucca and Edward I. Alan Crossley (Ed.). A Victoria History of the County of Oxford, vol. X. Banbury Hundred. David Underdown. Somerset in the Civil War and Interregnum. Margaret Roake and John Whyman (Eds.). Essays in Kentish History. Alan Everitt (Ed.). Perspectives in English Urban History. David Baker (Ed.). The Inhabitants of Cardington in 1782. J. A. Robey and L. Porter. The Copper and Lead Mines of Ecton Hill, Staffordshire. John Foster. Class Struggle and the Industrial Revolution: Early Industrial Capitalism in Three English Towns. Philip J. Riden. The Butterley Company, 1790–1830: A Derbyshire Ironworks in the Industrial Revolution. Patricia Hollis (Ed.). Class and Conflict in Nineteenth-Century England, 1815–1850. Douglas C. North and Robert Paul Thomas. The Rise of the Western World: A New Economic History. D. V. Glass and Roger Revelle (Eds.). Population & Social Change. Henry A. Landsberger (Ed.). Rural Protest: Peasant Movements and Social Change. Georges Duby. The Early Growth of the European Economy: Warriors and Peasants from the Seventh to the Twelfth Century. Peter Earle (Ed.). Essays in European History, 1500–1800. Marcello Carmagnani. Les Mécanismes de la Vie Economique dans une Société Coloniale: Le Chili (1680–1830). Eugen Mewes (Ed.). Terra Nostra; Culegere de Materiale Privind Istoria Agrará a Romanici. Imre Wellmann (Ed.). Proceedings of the Hungarian Agricultural Museum, 1971–2. I. T. Berend and G. Ranki. Hungary. A Century of Economic Development. Theodore Zeldin. France: 1848–1945. Volume One. Ambition, Love and Politics. Ronald Dore. British Factory—Japanese Factory: The Origins of National Diversity in Industrial Relations. Internationaal Colloquium (Spa 5–8-IX-1968). De burgerlijke openbare gebouwen in de Europese steden en hun financiering in de Middeleeuwen en onder het Ancien Régime. Handelingen. D. Degreve, D'une analyse de la révolution industrielle à un diagnostic du sous-développement (suite et fin). H. Thomas, A. L. Constantse, et alia. ‘De Spaanse Burgeroorlog en zijn gevolgen. J. H. Munro. Wool, Cloth and Gold: The Struggle for Bullion in Anglo-Burgundian Trade, 1340–1478. K. Bertels. Geschiedenis tussen struktuur en evenment. Een methodologisch en wijsgerig onderzoek. ‘Special Issue on Agricultural History in Nineteenth Century Belgium’, Revue belge d'histoire contemporaine S. Hart. ‘Amsterdam Shipping and Trade to Northern Russia in the Seventeenth Century’, Mededelingen van de Nederlandse Vereniging voor zeegeschiedenis J. Everaert. De internationale en koloniale handel der Vlaamse firma's te Cadiz, 1670–1700 (avec un résumé français: le commerce international et colonial des firmes flamandes à Cadix, 1670–1700). Acta Historiae Neerlandicau: Studies on the History of the Netherlands. P. Creutzberg (Ed.). Het ekonomisch beleid in Nederlandsch-Indië. Capita selecta. Een bronnenpublikatie, Vol. I. W. De Vries. 150 Jaar Welstand, de Maatschappij tot bevordering van welstand, voornamelijk onder landlieden, 1822–1972. J. De Vries. De Nederlandse economie tijdens de 20ste eeuw. Een verkenning van het meest kenmerkende. M. Van Durme (Ed.). Les Archives générales de Simancas et l'histoire de la Belgique (IXe–XIXe siècles) P. M. M. Klep. Het huishouden in westelyk Noord-Brabant: Structuur en ontivikkeling, 1750–1849. H. A. Enno Van Gelder. Gegevens betreffende roerend en onroerend bezit in de Nederlanden in de 16e eeuw J. De Vries. De Coöperatieve Raffaisen- en Boerenleenbanken in Nederland, 1948–1973: Van exponent tot component. J. F. Bläsing. Das goldene Delta und sein eisernes Hinterland, 1815–1851. Von niederländischpreussischen zu deutsch-niederlandischen Wirtschaftsbeziehungen. T. Van der Wal. Op zoek naar een nieuwe vrijheid: Een kwart eeuw arbeidersbeweging in Friesland, 1870–1895. L. Vire. La distribution publique d'eau à Bruxelles, 1830–1870. J. van Herwaarden (Ed.). Lof der Historie. Opstellen over geschiedenis en maatschappij. L. Schepens. Van Vlaskutser tot Franschman. Bijdrage tot de Geschiedenis van de Westvlaamse plattelandsbevolking in de negentiende eeuw. G. Hansotte. La principauté de Stavelot-Malmédy à la fin de l'Ancien Régime. Carte de la principauté en 1789; dénombrement des maisons, des chevaux et des bestiaux vers 1750. J. Fichefet. Histoire de la commune de Saint-Martin. M. Claeys-Van Haegendoorn. Hendrik de Man: Biografie. C. Verlinden et. al. Dokumenten voor de Geschiedenis van Prijzen en Lonen in Vlaanderen en Brabant (XVIe-XIXe E.) W. P. Blockmans (Ed.). Handelingen van de leden en van de staten van Vlaanderen. Regeringen van Maria van Bourgondië en Filips de Schone (5 januari 1477–26 september 1506). Excerpten uit de rekeningen van de Vlaamse steden en kasselrijen en van de vorstelijke ambtenaren. Deel I: tot de vrede van Kadzand, 1492. Histoire Economique de la Belgique. Traitement des Sources et Etat des Questions—Economische Geschiedenis van België. Behandeling van de Bronnen en Problematiek. Actes du Colloque de Bruxelles—Handelingen van het Colloquium te Brussel. 17–19 nov. 1971 Histoire Economique de la Belgique. Traitement des Sources et Etat des Questions P. M. M. Klep. Groeidynamiek en stagnatie in een agrarisch grensgebied. De ekonomische ontwikkeling in de Noordanlwerpse Kempen en de Baronie van Breda, 1750–1850. Studies over de sociaal-economische geschiedenis van Limburg F. Pollentier. De Admiraliteit en de oorlog ter zee onder de Aartshertogen (1596–1609).     

Industrious peasants in east and west: markets, technology, and family structure in Japanese and Western European agriculture

Jan de Vries engages with Osamu Saito's discussion of Tokugawa Japan, in particular, his exploration of de Vries's concept of an industrious revolution for East Asia, which was published in this journal in 2010. The discussion bears on the ongoing debate over the timing and character of the Great Divergence, when advanced parts of Europe pulled ahead of Asia. de Vries argues that the constraint on the Japanese rural household to acquire and shed labour delayed the shift from supply-side industriousness to demand-motivated industriousness, which in turn meant that the Great Divergence was already in place before 1800.     

Foreign direct investment and export and import value

Summary This paper discusses the possible effects of foreign direct investment (FDI) on the current account of the balance of payments. Using data on FDI stocks the effect on the goods and services account is investigated in a cross-section analysis for 30 less developed countries.The author wishes to thank J.W. Gunning, H. Linnemann, J.H.A. van Maanen, F. de Roos, H.P. Smit, B. Vogelvang, H. Visser as well as an anonymous referee for giving valuable comments on previous drafts of this article. Any shortcomings are, however, his own responsibility.     

Discussion of: An analysis of the auditor's uncertainty about probabilities

The main objective of Larsson and Chesley's (1986) paper is to provide a framework for an auditor to assign a probability measure associated with uncertainty or ambiguity related to certain types of events arising in an audit environment. For this framework the authors extracted and applied the general methodology developed by Larsson (1976) in his doctoral thesis, which extends a subjective probability measure from a known s?-algebra θ to an unknown and an extended class β, such that an auditor (decision maker), when faced with an extended lottery on events in β, can still come up with the use of utility theory maximization to rank the decisions. The authors make the following claims: (1) their methodology helps the auditor with this new audit tool of probability measure assessment; (2) their measure can capture a number of previously specified approaches by others in this area; and (3) their measure provides some “intuitive conclusions and some well-known mathematical properties.” (Abstract)     

Den Hartog and Tjan's vintage model as a tool for the determination of structural unemployment: Some critical remarks

Summary The use of the vintage model with fixed coefficients as devised by den Hartog and Tjan for determining the causes of structural unemployment, is scrutinized; one should realize that this model had a great impact on the analysis of the unemployment situation by the Dutch government. On methodological grounds a sensitivity analysis of the model is performed and it is argued that the margins of uncertainty adhering to the results of this model are so large as to make the model in its current form a very questionable basis for an effective policy.The authors are indebted to Professors F. J. de Jong and Th. C. M. J. van de Klundert for valuable comments.     

Structural breaks in the mean of dividend-price ratios: Implications of learning on stock return predictability

In their out-of-sample predictions of stock returns in the presence of structural breaks, Lettau and Van Nieuwerburgh (2008) implicitly assume that economic agents’ perception of the regime-specific mean for the dividend-price ratio is time-invariant within a regime. In this paper, we challenge this assumption and employ least squares learning with constant gain (or constant-gain learning) in estimating economic agents’ time-varying perception for the mean of dividend-price ratio. We obtain better out-of-sample predictions of stock returns than in Lettau and Van Nieuwerburgh (2008) for both the U.S. and Japanese stock markets. Our empirical results suggest that economic agents’ learning plays an important role in the dynamics of stock returns.     

Legal Damages and Auditor Efforts*

Abstract. Conventional wisdom holds that an auditor's optimal response to an increase in legal exposure is to double his efforts in finding errors in his client's financial reports. This paper's main result is that in a market setting where clients shop for opinions and auditors must compete for clients, the conventional wisdom may fail. Increased damages: affect all auditors reducing the competition among auditors for clients. Thus, an auditor can reduce his legal exposure by reporting more conservatively, instead of working harder. The main result is mitigated if client firms also face legal damages and if clients themselves are more conservative in preparing their unaudited financial statements. If it is more likely that a client claiming “good news” is truly good, the auditor has an incentive to work harder to confirm this good report and satisfy his client. This incentive to work harder to please his client may prevent the auditor from retreating into conservatism when damages are increased. Finally, if the auditors' report space were continuous, as with a continuum of client types, the main result would be reversed: additional damages would (weakly) increase the auditor's efforts. With a continuum of possible reports, the competition is not eliminated as damages increase; only the range of reports that the auditors offer is reduced. Because the competition cannot be eliminated and the incumbent cannot resort to conservatism to reduce his legal exposure, the auditor works hard. Résumé. Par tradition, la sagesse veut que la réaction la plus appropriée d'un vérificateur à une augmentation des risques juridiques soit un redoublement d'efforts pour déceler les erreurs dans les rapports financiers de ses clients. L'auteur en arrive pourtant à la principale conclusion que, dans le contexte d'un marché où les clients font du «magasinage» d'opinion et où les vérificateurs doivent se disputer les clients, la sagesse nous amène à faire fausse route. L'augmentation des dommages touche tous les vérificateurs et atténue la rivalité qui les oppose dans la recherche de clients. Ainsi, un vérificateur peut diminuer le risque juridique auquel il est exposé en usant d'une plus grande prudence dans ses rapports plutôt qu'en travaillant avec plus d'acharnement. L'auteur est cependant moins catégorique à ce sujet lorsque l'entreprise cliente fait aussi l'objet de poursuites en dommages et qu'elle est donc plus prudente dans la préparation de ses états financiers non vérifiés. Il est davantage probable que les nouvelles positives qu'une telle entreprise publie le soient véritablement, de sorte que le vérificateur est, lui, davantage enclin à déployer les efforts nécessaires pour confirmer ces nouvelles positives et satisfaire son client. Cette incitation à travailler avec plus d'énergie pour satisfaire le client peut faire en sorte que le vérificateur ne se replie pas derrière la prudence lorsque les dommages augmentent. Enfin, s'il existe un large éventail de rapports de vérification, comme dans le cas d'une multiplicité de types d'entreprises, la conclusion principale se trouve inversée; l'augmentation des montants de dommages entraîne une (faible) hausse de l'intensité du travail du vérificateur. Dans le cas d'un large éventail de rapports possibles, la concurrence ne s'atténue pas avec l'augmentation des montants de dommages; seul l'éventail des rapports qu'offrent les vérificateurs est réduit. Étant donné que la concurrence ne peut être éliminée, et que le vérificateur attitré ne peut recourir à la prudence pour réduire le risque juridique auquel il est exposé, il redouble d'effort.     

On the relationship between Dutch and German interest rates

Summary In this paper the relationship between Dutch and German short-term and long-term interest rates is examined. Using cointegration techniques, it is found that the covered interest parity hypothesis holds for short-term interest rates. This evidence supports the recent shift of emphasis of Dutch monetary policy. It appears that the uncovered short-term interest differential is stationary. The long-term interest differential is stationary with a shift in mean. This does not imply that the uncovered interest parity (UIP) holds. Using the indirect approach suggested by Fama (1984), we show that a risk premium exists and that, therefore, UIP does not hold.The authors would like to thank H. Garretsen, L.H. Hoogduin, J. Jacobs, C.A. de Kam and two anonymous referees for their helpful comments on a previous version of this paper.Economic Bureau NMB-Postbank.     

Nonlinearity in the Returns-Earnings Relation: Tests of Alternative Specifications and Explanations*

Abstract. Several authors recently challenged the linearity of the returns-earnings relation. In this article, we test the adequacy of alternative nonlinear specifications and examine the validity of various explanations put forth for the returns-earnings nonlinearity. Our main findings are (1) that the nonlinearity persists even when the returns-earnings relation is estimated on annual data (most previous studies used quarterly data) and by a nonparametric procedure that does not impose a specific functional form on the relation; (2) that some nonlinearity exists in the relation between stock returns and earnings levels (previous studies have considered earnings surprises), although it is much less pronounced than the returns-earnings surprise nonlinearity; (3) that the main nonlinear estimation methods used in previous studies and in the current one appear to characterize equally well the underlying returns-earnings relation; predictions of subsequent stock returns based on each of the three specifications the authors examined are largely indistinguishable with respect to their accuracy; (4) that although “special items,” usually identified as transitory by the accountants, appear to contribute to the nonlinearity, there are probably additional contributing factors; the authors find that when all extraordinary items and “special items” are removed from earnings, the returns-earnings relation still exhibits nonlinearity, (5) that the inclusion of cash flow or accrual information also does not eliminate the nonlinearity; and (6) that the returns-cash flow relation is also nonlinear. The authors conclude that nonlinearity of the returns-earnings relation is quite robust across several alternative specifications. However, the candidate explanations they examined do not fully explain the observed nonlinearity. The search for the underlying cause of nonlinearity must therefore continue. Résumé. Plusieurs auteurs remettaient récemment en question la linéarité de la relation rendements-bénéfices. Les auteurs de l'article qui suit vérifient, pour leur part, si les formes non linéaires envisageables sont appropriées et examinent la validité de diverses explications mises de l'avant pour éclairer la non-linéarité de la relation rendements-bénéfices. Leurs principales observations sont les suivantes: (1) la non-linéarité persiste même lorsque la relation rendements-bénéfices est estimée à partir de données annuelles (la plupart des études précédentes s'appuyaient sur des données trimestrielles) et au moyen d'un procédé non paramétrique qui n'impose pas de forme fonctionnelle précise à la relation; (2) une certaine non-linéarité existe dans la relation entre le rendement des actions et les niveaux de bénéfice (les chercheurs avaient, jusque-là, pris en considération les bénéfices inattendus), bien que cette non-linéarité soit beaucoup moins accentuée que la non-linéarité des rendements-bénéfices inattendus; (3) les principales méthodes d'estimation non linéaire utilisées dans les études précédentes et dans la présente étude semblent définir tout aussi bien la relation sous-jacente rendements-bénéfices; les prédictions relatives aux rendements subséquents des actions en fonction de chacune des trois formes que les auteurs ont examinées sont, dans la majorité des cas, impossibles à différencier en ce qui a trait au degré d'exactitude; (4) bien que des éléments ? exceptionnels ?, habituellement définis comme étant provisoires par les comptables, semblent contribuer à la non-linéarité, d'autres facteurs y contribuent probablement aussi; selon les auteurs, lorsque tous les éléments extraordinaires et les ? éléments exceptionnels ? sont exclus des bénéfices, la relation rendements-bénéfices demeure non linéaire; (5) la relation demeure aussi non linéaire si l'on tient compte de l'information relative aux flux de trésorerie ou aux engagements; et (6) la relation rendements-flux de trésorerie est également non linéaire. Les auteurs concluent que la non-linéarité de la relation rendements-bénéfices, envisagée sous plusieurs formes différentes, résiste assez bien à l'analyse. Toutefois, les causes possibles qu'ils ont choisi d'examiner n'expliquent pas entièrement la non-linéarité observée, et les recherches doivent se poursuivre.