出口退税、行业集中度与出口行业“盯市”行为研究

本文以金融危机前后曾出现的出口退税较大调整为背景,应用面板平滑转换模型（ PSTR）对出口行业“盯市”（依市定价）程度与出口退税、行业集中度之间的关系展开探讨。研究结果表明,就行业集中度而言,无论危机前还是危机后始终对出口行业的PTM行为产生影响,且均与PTM存在平滑转变的非线性关系;出口退税仅在危机后的大幅提升后才对PTM影响显著,并表现为突变的快速向下的门限效应,而危机前对PTM并无影响;与出口退税相比,行业集中度对PTM的影响虽非立竿见影但却是缓慢且持久的。     

Investigating first‐stage exchange rate pass‐through: Sectoral and macro evidence from euro area countries

In this paper, we evaluate the first‐stage pass‐through, namely the responsiveness of import prices to the exchange rate changes, for a sample of euro area (EA) countries. Our study aimed to shed further light on the role of microeconomic factors versus macroeconomic factors in influencing the extent of the exchange rate pass‐through (ERPT). As a first step, we conduct a sectoral analysis using disaggregated import prices data. We find a much higher degree of pass‐through for more homogeneous goods and commodities, such as oil and raw materials, than for highly differentiated manufactured products, such as machinery and transport equipment. Our results confirm that cross‐country differences in pass‐through rates may be due to divergences in the product composition of imports. The higher share of imports from sectors with lower degrees of pass‐through, the lower ERPT for an economy will be. In a next step, we investigate for the impact of some macroeconomics factors or common events experienced by EA members on the extent of pass‐through. Using the system generalised method of moments within a dynamic panel‐data model, our estimates indicate that decline of import‐price sensitivity to the exchange rate is not significant since the introduction of the single currency. Our findings suggest instead that the weakness of the euro during the first 3 years of the monetary union significantly raised the extent of the ERPT. This outcome could explain why the sensitivity of import prices has not fallen since 1999. We also point out a significant role played by the inflation in the Eurozone, as the responsiveness of import prices to exchange rate fluctuations tends to decline in a low and more stable inflation environment. Overall, our findings support the view that the extent of pass‐through is comprised of both macro‐ and microeconomic aspects that policymakers should take into account.     

进出口视角下汇率对失业影响的效应研究

选取1992年～2009年G20国家中15个国家的进出口、汇率和失业率等数据,运用面板协整方法研究汇率对失业的直接影响,以及进口和出口两个渠道对失业产生的间接影响,结果表明,汇率对失业率的直接影响效应不显著,通过出口和进口渠道对失业率产生的间接影响也较小,但出口和失业率存在反向关系,扩大出口能降低失业率;进口和失业率也存在反向关系,进口贸易额的扩大能使失业率降低.     

Exchange rate management in emerging markets: Intervention via an electronic limit order book

This paper describes and analyzes the implementation of a crawling exchange rate band on an electronic trading platform. The placement of limit orders at the central bank's target rate serves as a credible policy statement that may coordinate beliefs of market participants. We find for our sample that intervention increases exchange rate volatility (and spread) for the next minutes but that intervention days show a lower degree of volatility (and spread) than non-intervention days. We also show for intraday data that the price impact of interbank order flow is smaller on intervention days than on non-intervention days. These stabilizing effects, however, rely on the conditions of large currency reserves and the existence of capital controls; an electronic market seems to support this goal.     

我国汇率的市场化进程模式探析与展望

我国的汇率市场化是政府推进型的汇率市场化。这一特点显示：政府在促进我国汇率市场化进程的同时，也不可避免地产生重汇率水平调节。轻市场培育的问题。这就与政府的目标不一致，它反而阻碍了汇率的市场化。所以,为了促进汇率的进一步市场化，我国政府应该将外汇市场的市场培育作为其一贯目标，以使得汇率的市场化走上一条良性循环的道路。     

Non-linear relationships between growth opportunities and debt: Evidence from quoted Portuguese companies

This paper analyses the relationship between growth opportunities and debt of quoted Portuguese companies using various panel estimators. The results show a cubic relationship between growth opportunities and debt. When companies' growth opportunities are low and high, the relationship between growth opportunities and debt is positive. For intermediate levels of growth opportunities, the results show the existence of a negative relationship between growth opportunities and debt. These results suggest that the relationship between companies' growth opportunities and debt is influenced by complex aspects in companies' capital structure decisions. The empirical results suggest that creditors recognize high growth opportunities when such opportunities exist, and debt is a way to discipline managers' actions in the presence of low investment opportunities. For intermediate levels of growth opportunities, the subinvestment problems seem to be relevant in explaining the relationship between growth opportunities and debt.     

Does US quantitative easing affect exchange rate pass‐through in China?

In this paper, we show theoretically and empirically that the US quantitative easing (QE ) policy results in lower exchange rate pass‐through into the destination prices of Chinese exporters. In addition, the more the exchange rate in the export destination appreciates than the Chinese yuan, the stronger this effect becomes. Our model combines various marginal effects of QE policy on the destinations of Chinese exporters and variable markups of export firms due to strategic complementarities. The model predicts that the impact of US QE policy on the pass‐through of Chinese exporters depends on its spillover on the exchange rate between China and the export destination of different firms. We provide strong support for the model predictions using Chinese firm‐product‐level data with information on export destinations. The baseline result and the heterogeneity we find in the response of exchange rate pass‐through of Chinese exporters to US QE policy remain robust to alternative measures of samples and controls.     

人民币汇率波动的微观效应——基于制造业上市公司财务数据的分析

根据我国522家制造业上市企业2001—2007年的财务数据,采用动态面板数据模型分析人民币汇率波动对企业融资能力的影响。研究结果表明:在企业存在货币错配的情况下,当期和滞后1期的人民币汇率波动对企业短期信贷能力和总信贷能力有显著的正相关效应,且滞后1期的效应更为明显,但对长期信贷能力的影响不明显。由于我国企业存在大量的债务型货币错配,人民币有效汇率的贬值给我国企业的融资能力带来了负面影响。     

Exchange rate effects: A case study of the export performance of the Swiss agriculture and food sector

The Swiss franc appreciated strongly against the currencies of Switzerland's most important trading partners after the global financial crisis in 2008. This has raised the question of how sensitive Swiss exports are with respect to exchange rate movements. We analyse this question for exports of the Swiss agriculture and food sector, using both time series and dynamic panel data models based on data from 1999 to 2012. We find that in the long run a one per cent appreciation of the Swiss franc leads on average to a decrease in exports of agricultural and food products between 0.8 and 0.9 per cent. Our results suggest that on average, producers in the Swiss agriculture and food sector are able to successfully avoid price competition by differentiating their products, producing high‐quality products for niche markets.     

中国股票与外汇市场相关性分析

根据中国政府在国际金融危机爆发后针对外汇市场所采取的不同政策,本文将汇改后时期分成三个阶段,利用协整检验和因果检验的计量方法,研究国际金融危机爆发后中国股票市场和外汇市场的连带关系。实证结果表明汇率制度改革后中国股市与汇市之间存在长期稳定的协整关系,但股票市场和外汇市场间的引导关系在不同的子样本区间内存在差异。     

A down-and-out exchange option model with jumps to evaluate firms' default probabilities in Brazil

We develop a tractable structural model to estimate a firm's default probability by modeling its asset and debt behavior. The model incorporates jump factors. For a set of Brazilian large corporations, we compare the structural model results to the default probabilities predicted by a survival analysis applied to the Central Bank debt information database. Our model outperforms other structural models. In a last step, we use a firm's sector failure probabilities to calibrate the model. This process is executed by adjusting the model jump volatility and it helps to explain the differences between debt and equity market failure probabilities.     

Export Performance of Brazilian States to Mercosul and Non-Mercosul Partners

ABSTRACT

We investigate the role of the trade-weighted real exchange rate and foreign income on the export performance of Brazilian states, differentiating between Mercosur and non-Mercosur partners. The results indicate that state exports are price and income inelastic. There are differences in the influence of the different trade factors between the two groups of partners. One crucial difference is the relevance of the real exchange rate effect for non-Mercosur partners. This might be associated with the existence of specific rules for Mercosur that can overcome the usual effect of relative competitiveness associated with movements in the real exchange rate.     

外汇交易市场的汇率协整分析

本文通过单位根检验,确定汇率的价格序列具有一阶差分平稳性,在此基础上对外汇交易市场几种汇率之间的协整关系进行实证分析,研究发现他们存在着长期的稳定关系,这将有助于投资者制定决策并有效地规避风险。     

技术创新、市场分割与收入不平等——基于中国省级面板数据的分析

基于1998—2017年中国省级面板数据,分析了省级层面收入不平等程度及其影响因素,重点研究了技术创新和市场分割对收入不平等的作用。研究结果显示,样本期内基尼系数总体水平较高,呈现出了先上升后下降的走势。地区收入差距与技术创新之间存在U型关系,当前“知识溢出”效应超过了“技能溢价”效应,创新水平的提高将有助于缩小地区收入差距;市场分割不仅会加剧地区收入不平等,还会通过阻碍技术创新间接弱化创新对收入差距的缓解作用。地区收入不平等与经济发展水平之间存在倒U型关系,贸易依存度、人均受教育年限和人均社会保障支出的提高有助于缩小地区收入差距,工业化率的提高则会加剧地区收入差距,财政支出对地区收入差距的作用不明显;动态面板模型的研究结果表明,地区收入差距具有惯性特征。最后,基于研究结论,给出了有针对性的政策建议。     

国际工程承包企业规避外汇风险的方法分析

随着我国“走出去”战略的进一步实施,国际承包企业如何规避外汇风险已成为我国企业经济管理的新内容。企业面临的外汇风险分为交易风险、会计风险和经济风险。企业须根据企业外汇避险的要求,选择适当的避险工具,提高防范风险的能力。     

我国汇率制度改革与银行间外汇市场发展分析

2005年7月21日,我国宣布开始实行以市场供求为基础,参考一篮子货币进行调节、有管理的浮动汇率。在这种新形势下,银行间外汇市场要改变过去依附于结售汇制度的框架,确立新的发展战略取向。本文将从外汇市场组织结构改革、交易清算方式改进、交易品种的引进的转变三个方面为切入点对此进行分析。