Exchange-Rate Volatility,Exchange-Rate Regime,and Trade in OIC Countries

The authors examine the impact of exchange rate volatility on trade in the Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC) countries from 1995 to 2008 using panel estimations to distinguish differences between disaggregate trade, and examine its threshold effects. Results reveal that exchange rate volatility generally has significant negative effect on export and import with lag. However, exports of OIC with flexible exchange rate regime have significant positive exposure to exchange rate volatility. The authors also document a threshold effect for countries with trade value constitutes more than 30% of the real gross domestic product, and the exchange rate volatility becomes significant positive for export but significant negative for import with lag.     

Impact of exchange rates on ASEAN's trade in the era of global value chains: An empirical assessment

ABSTRACT

Exchange rate risk remains a key concern for export-oriented economies in Southeast Asia. Traditionally, export performance is thought to be adversely affected by exchange rate appreciation and high exchange rate volatility. Nonetheless, in the context of global value chains where export production relies heavily on imported inputs, the trade effects of exchange rate may be weakened. Using the OECD-WTO Trade in Value-added (TiVA) database, this paper seeks to tease out the association between exchange rate movements, volatility and aggregate exports of goods and services among ASEAN economies. More importantly, it investigates whether integration into GVCs affects these relationships. Applying panel regression techniques to a sample of eight ASEAN countries over the period 1995–2011, we found that high share of foreign value added (FVA) embodied in exports almost completely offsets the negative effect of an appreciation in the real effective exchange rate (REER) on real gross exports. At the same time, high FVA share also dampens the negative association between exports and increased REER volatility.     

Business cycle synchronisation in East Asia: The role of value‐added trade

We empirically investigate the relationship between business cycle synchronisation and the role of value‐added trade focusing on a panel of 12 Asian countries from 1995 to 2011. In addition, we propose the inclusion of two novel determinants, for example external value‐added trade intensity and exchange rate volatility and also saturate our empirical model with other common determinants found in the literature. Our findings first confirm that value‐added trade intensity, rather than gross trade intensity, has a sizable, positive and statistically significant impact on synchronisation among East Asian countries. Second, the exchange rate volatility has a significant negative effect on the business cycle synchronisation, which verifies that the exchange rate volatility is another important determinant of business cycle synchronisation. Our findings have important implications for the monetary cooperation in the region: strengthening trade linkage could reduce the costs of monetary cooperation by increasing the incidence of symmetric shocks.     

我国教育服务贸易的新发展:“入世”十周年的回顾与反思

"入世"以后,我国的教育服务贸易得到较快发展,境外消费、中外合作办学和自然人流动是贸易的主要方式。但是,我国的教育服务贸易逆差大,对教育服务的可贸易性认识不足、教育服务国际竞争力弱、教育服务贸易立法不完善、教育管理体制僵化和国际合作有限等因素限制了我国教育服务贸易发展的深度与广度。因此,我国必须尽快制定教育服务贸易战略规划,完善教育管理体制与教育服务贸易立法,加强国际交流与合作,才能推动教育服务贸易快速健康发展。     

Exchange rate jumps and exports: Evidence from China

We apply the autoregressive conditional jump intensity (ARJI ) model to monthly exchange rate returns of China against 81 countries and investigate the impact of exchange rate volatility on exports over the period of 1995–2004. We decompose bilateral exchange rate volatility into continuous and discrete components and find that only the discrete part of exchange rate volatility, that is, the exchange rate jumps, has a significantly negative effect on exports, which to some extent reconciles the old yet unsettled debate in previous literature on the role of exchange rate volatility in international trade. There is also some evidence suggesting that the development of domestic financial market will boost international trade, but it does not help attenuate the negative effect of bilateral exchange rate jump risk on exports.     

Exchange rate volatility and Japan–U.S. commodity trade: An asymmetry analysis

Exchange rate volatility is said to affect trade flows in either direction. When increased volatility is separated from decreased volatility, asymmetric analysis reveals even more support for the fact that both increased volatility and decreased volatility affect trade flows in either direction. We add to this new literature by considering 57 industries that trade between Japan and the US. In addition to providing evidence of asymmetric response of their trade flows to a measure of exchange rate volatility, our approach identifies industries that could benefit from increased exchange rate volatility and those that could be hurt. Similarly, we identify industries that could benefit from decreased volatility and those that could be hurt. The overall conclusion is the adverse effects of dollar–yen volatility on the trade between the two countries.     

Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports: New Empirical Evidence from the Emerging East Asian Economies

This paper examines the impact of bilateral real exchange rate volatility on real exports of five emerging East Asian countries among themselves as well as to 13 industrialised countries. We recognise the specificity of the exports between the emerging East Asian and industrialised countries and employ a generalised gravity model. In the empirical analysis we use a panel comprising 25 years of quarterly data and perform unit‐root and cointegration tests to verify the long‐run relationship among the variables. The results provide strong evidence that exchange rate volatility has a negative impact on the exports of emerging East Asian countries. In addition, the results suggest that the pattern of bilateral exports is influenced by third‐country variables. An increase in the price competitiveness of other emerging East Asian countries has a negative impact on a country’s exports to a destination market, but the magnitude of the impact is relatively small. These results are robust across different estimation techniques and do not depend on the variable chosen to proxy exchange rate uncertainty. The results of the GMM‐IV estimation also confirm the negative impact of exchange rate volatility on exports and suggest that this negative relationship is not driven by simultaneous causality bias.     

Exchange Rate Volatility and International Trade Flows in sub-Saharan Africa: Empirical Evidence

In this article, the authors examine the relationship between the volatility in exchange rates and the volume of international trade in sub-Saharan African countries. Using the gravity equation and annual data for the period 1998–2007, they find a statistically significant and negative correlation between the volatility in exchange rates and the volume of trade. The estimated elasticities show that the responsiveness of the flow of international trade to changes in exchange rate volatility is very small. This suggests that eliminating the volatility in the exchange rates will result in only small increments in the volume of trade. Accordingly, pursuing a policy of exchange rate stability would not be sufficient to significantly increase the volume of bilateral trade in the sub-Saharan African region.     

交易成本与真实汇率的波动率——基于国际宏观经济模型的分析

文章重点论述了交易成本对真实汇率波动性的影响。基于Eaton和Kortum(2002)的思想,将两国和多国之间的Ricardian贸易模型进行改进,用于对宏观经济模型的分析,表明国家之间双边真实汇率的波动程度取决于各国生产力的比较优势和贸易国的交易成本。最后我们利用1980-2000年间巨大的跨境面板数据检验并支持了文章的这一结论。     

Trade in Services: The Elasticity Approach for The Case of Turkey

This study includes the analysis of global trade in the services and service sector in Turkey, and estimates the elasticity of trade in services to real exchange rates and income. There is an increasing role of the service sector in the Turkish economy; however, a decreasing trend of trade in services is taking place. The commitments of the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS) were found to be ineffective, at least in the case of Turkey. The empirical findings suggest that the real exchange rate is not a significant determinant for the trade in services. We found an inelastic real exchange rate and income elasticities in trade demand functions. However, the value of income elasticity significantly exceeds the value of real exchange rate elasticity.     

Teaching Real-World Political Economy: Simulating a WTO Negotiation

International educational experiences can provide benefits for faculty members as well as higher education institutions and their students. The opportunity to lecture and conduct research with colleagues at universities in other countries can foster the globalization or internationalization of academic teaching, the advancement of knowledge, and cooperation among institutions. Research has shown that the experience abroad helps educators to gain a more global perspective that will enhance business classes. This article will show that a Fulbright experience abroad helps faculty to lead business students to be more knowledgeable and aware of international issues and global concerns.     

Markov switching GARCH models of currency turmoil in Southeast Asia

This paper analyzes exchange rate turmoil with a Markov switching GARCH model. We distinguish between two different regimes in both the conditional mean and the conditional variance: “ordinary” regime, characterized by low exchange rate changes and low volatility, and “turbulent” regime, characterized by high exchange rate devaluation and high volatility. We also allow the transition probabilities to vary over time as functions of economic and financial indicators. We find that real effective exchange rates, money supply relative to reserves, stock index returns, and bank stock index returns and volatility contain valuable information for identifying turbulent and ordinary periods.     

我国服务贸易与GDP的协整分析

我国服务贸易与GDP之间存在长期均衡关系.服务出口对我国经济发展具有显著的推动作用,其对GDP增长的贡献大于服务贸易总额的贡献.我国经济发展为服务进口提供了源动力.我国服务贸易与GDP之间由短期偏离向长期均衡调整的速度很快.因此,增加服务出口是我国长期要坚持的策略,重视服务进口有利于我国经济的可持续发展.     

Endogenous exchange rate pass-through when nominal prices are set in advance

This paper develops a model of endogenous exchange rate pass-through within an open economy macroeconomic framework, where both pass-through and the exchange rate are simultaneously determined, and interact with one another. Pass-through is endogenous because firms choose the currency in which they set their export prices. There is a unique equilibrium rate of pass-through under the condition that exchange rate volatility rises as the degree of pass-through falls. We show that the relationship between exchange rate volatility and economic structure may be substantially affected by the presence of endogenous pass-through. Our key results show that pass-through is related to the relative stability of monetary policy. Countries with relatively low volatility of money growth will have relatively low rates of exchange rate pass-through, while countries with relatively high volatility of money growth will have relatively high pass-through rates.     

Services trade and credit frictions: Evidence with matched bank–firm data

The effects of credit supply shocks on the exports of services are not clear a priori. On the one hand, services need lower initial investment in physical capital than manufacturing. On the other hand, competitiveness for exporting services requires investments in intangible capital and in product customisation that may be subject to credit frictions. Using Italian matched bank–firm data and focusing on the sovereign debt crisis, we find an elasticity of services exports to credit supply, between 0.3 and 0.4. The effects of credit shocks are especially relevant for firms exporting complex services to countries with weaker institutions and for services that are not the main product of the firms. Overall, our results suggest that credit supply plays a relevant role for exporting services during crises.     

汇率风险如何影响中国对日本的出口

本文研究汇率风险对中国与日本的双边出口是否存在长期和短期的影响。使用多元JO-HANSEN协整检验法来检验汇率波动率与出口之间是否存在长期均衡关系。使用GRANGER非因果检验和脉冲响应函数检验短期影响是否存在。研究结果表明从长期看,汇率风险对出口没有影响,但是短期看,汇率风险确实会影响出口。     

Evidence on the dynamic relationship between international trade and the stock market

This study uses vector autoregressive analysis to examine the dynamic interactions of monthly real stock returns, return volatility, exchange rates, export growth and import growth for Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan for the period 1975–91. We find that exports and imports have significant interactions. The results also indicate that stock returns in Hong Kong and Singapore Granger-cause trade flows. Return volatility is found to react strongly to trade news in all four countries, a result supporting the efficient-market hypothesis.     

服务贸易开放度与碳排放 ——基于1995~2009年跨国面板数据的实证分析

在世界服务贸易取得迅猛发展的同时,全球面临的环境问题也日益突出。基于1995~2009年的国际面板数据,本文构建计量模型对服务贸易开放度与碳排放的关系进行了实证分析。实证检验发现,在全样本区间内,服务贸易开放度与二氧化碳排放呈倒U型关系;依收入水平分组的实证检验发现,高收入国家服务贸易开放度的提高可以显著减少二氧化碳的排放,中低收入国家则不显著,而中高收入国家服务贸易开放度与碳排放呈倒U型关系。     

Foreign exchange rate and trade balance dynamics in East African countries

This study investigates the effects of real exchange rate on trade balance in East African countries. In contrast to past studies that have often focused on one country in the region and adopted traditional empirical methods that are subject to shortcomings, the present study employed the ARDL procedure and investigated the issue in 10 East African countries. The main results are as follows. First, real exchange depreciation significantly improves trade balance for four countries in individual country estimations, as well as in panel estimation. Second, the elasticity of trade balance with respect to real exchange rate is inelastic. Elasticity slightly increases after exchange rate liberalization but remains inelastic. Third, significant short-run fall was not found for trade balance, which suggests lack of evidence for J-curve relationship     

假命题:“人民币汇率操纵”—一个基于马歇尔勒纳条件的实证

本文以后危机时代为背景,在中美人民币汇率现实争端以及学术界现有研究的基础上,从《IMF协定》关于"汇率操控"的定义出发、通过实证研究和对中美两国贸易实践的理论分析,得出美国等发达国家对中国政府"汇率操控"的指控不满足马歇尔-勒纳条件,即人民币贬值并不能带来中美贸易顺差。中美之间的贸易实践也有力地证明了美国对中国政府操纵汇率的责难缺乏事实依据和理论基础。美元主宰的国际货币体系、美元的霸权地位、美国的出口管制、美国的经济结构、消费模式等才是美国贸易逆差的最主要原因。