Profitability and factory-based cotton gin production in the antebellum south

Before 1820 Northern mechanics started factory-based cotton gin manufacturing to compete with traditional Southern “ginwrights.” Later, cotton gin production in factories was transferred to the South. This paper estimates the profitability of cotton gin makers in the antebellum industrial census. The Southern sector was more profitable than that of the North, explaining the regional migration of machine production resources. Besides transport cost protection, Southern firms had a cost advantage in sales and service networks. Specific factor investments in gin making limited further resource flows from North to South after 1840. It also reduced the industry’s impact on Southern economic development.     

Skill and Earnings Amongst Golfers on the Southern-African Sunshine Tour

This paper estimates the determinants of the success of golfers on the Southern-African Sunshine Tour. Using a simultaneous-quantile regression approach and real earnings per tournament as a measure of success, a higher greens-in-regulation percentage and a lower number of putts per greens-in-regulation are associated with higher earnings. Calculations of the value of the marginal product of key golfer skills suggest a dynamic human capital acquisition process for many Sunshine Tour golfers at the earliest stages of their professional golf career.     

ANOTHER SPINNING INNOVATION: THE CASE OF THE RATTLING SPINDLE,GARABŌ, IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE JAPANESE SPINNING INDUSTRY

Through the importation of the state‐of‐the‐art British spinning technology of the late nineteenth century, a new cotton spinning sector began to emerge in Meiji Japan during the 1870s and 1880s. This hectic technology transfer was accompanied by a remarkable domestic technological breakthrough that enabled the local spinners to significantly increase productivity to meet the unprecedented pace of the soaring market demand. This paper examines a relatively neglected case of the rattling spindle, Garabō, which was a product of Japanese native industrial endowments in parallel with the development of the British‐style mills.     

Capital Formation during the Industrial Revolution Revisited: Insurance Valuations and Some New Sectoral Estimates

National accounting and sectoral estimates of capital formation have underscored the picture of a "cut-price" industrialization in Britain with low capital requirements. Feinstein′s recent revisions to his earlier figures however have substantially increased the estimated level of capital stock in manufacturing during the late 18th century. This paper reexamines the sectoral estimates of capital in the cotton and wool textile industries for the period 1788-1835. The reliability of insurance valuations as a basis for these estimates is questioned. New capital stock figures are produced which incorporate allowances for capital missing from the insurance data used in the existing estimates. The thrust of these new sectoral estimates is to lend further significance to capital accumulation in British manufacturing during the Industrial Revolution.     

Intergenerational mobility of earnings in South Korea

The purpose of this study is to estimate the extent of intergenerational mobility of earnings in the Republic of Korea (South Korea). The elasticity of children's earnings with respect to parent's earnings is estimated using household microdata. When the simulation extrapolation (SIMEX) method is applied along with the multiyear-average method, the elasticity is estimated to be 0.24 or less for sons approximately 30 years old. When the two-stage approach is applied, the elasticity is approximately 0.25 for sons and 0.35 for daughters in their 30s, and approximately 0.35 for sons and 0.4 for daughters from 25 to 54 years old. Nonparametric regression illustrates that sons from low-income families in the younger generation have more equal opportunities than in the older generation     

Was Jules Dupuit a Market Socialist: A Retrospective Note on Marginal Cost Pricing

This paper examines the extent to which Dupuit preceded Hotelling in the theory of marginal cost pricing and the relation of marginal cost pricing to the Pigou–Robinson definition of exploitation, Coase’s multipart pricing, and the Kaldor compensation principle. Tsuneki’s partial rehabilitation of Hotelling’s proof of MC pricing is partially endorsed.      

Valuation and Clean Surplus Accounting for Operating and Financial Activities*

Abstract. This paper models the relation between a firm's market value and accounting data concerning operating and financial activities. Book value equals market value for financial activities, but they can differ for operating activities. Market value is assumed to equal the net present value of expected future dividends, and is shown, under clean surplus accounting, to also equal book value plus the net present value of expected future abnormal earnings (which equals accounting earnings minus an interest charge on opening book value). A linear model specifies the dynamics of an information set that includes book value and abnormal earnings for operating activities. Model parameters represent persistence of abnormal earnings, growth, and accounting conservatism. The model is sufficiently simple to permit derivation of closed form expressions relating market value to accounting data and other information. Three kinds of analyses develop from the model. The first set deals with value as it relates to anticipated realizations of accounting data. The second set examines in precise terms how value depends on contemporaneous realizations of accounting data. The third set examines asymptotic relations comparing market value to earnings and book values, and how earnings relate to beginning of period book values. The paper demonstrates that in all three sets of analyses the conclusions hinge on the extent to which the accounting is conservative as opposed to unbiased. Further, the absence/presence of growth in operating activities is relevant if, and only if, the accounting is conservative. Résumé. Les auteurs présentent sous forme de modèle la relation entre la valeur marchande d'une entreprise et les données comptables relatives à ses activités d'exploitation et ses activités financières. La valeur comptable est égale à la valeur marchande lorsqu'il s'agit d'activités financières, mais elle peut être différente dans le cas des activités d'exploitation. Les auteurs supposent que la valeur marchande est égale à la valeur actualisée nette des dividendes futurs prévus et démontrent que, lorsqu'on applique la méthode du résultat global, la valeur marchande est aussi égale à la valeur comptable additionnée de la valeur actualisée nette des bénéfices extraordinaires futurs prévus (qui sont égaux aux bénéfices comptables diminués de frais d'intérêt implicites sur la valeur comptable nette). Un modèle linéaire précise la dynamique d'un ensemble de données, incluant la valeur comptable et les bénéfices extraordinaires, relatives aux activités d'exploitation. Les paramètres du modèle traduisent la persistance des bénéfices extraordinaires, la croissance et le principe de prudence. Le modèle est suffisamment simple pour permettre de dériver des expressions fermées qui mettent en relation la valeur marchande et les données comptables et autres. Du modèle se dégagent trois formes d'analyses. La première porte sur la valeur, dans sa relation avec la matérialisation anticipée des données comptables. La deuxième porte sur l'examen précis du lien entre la valeur et la matérialisation actuelle des données comptables. Enfin, la troisième porte sur l'examen des relations asymptotiques à travers lesquelles se comparent la valeur marchande, d'une part, et les bénéfices et la valeur comptable, d'autre part, ainsi que sur la façon dont les bénéfices se rattachent aux valeurs comptables du début de l'exercice. Les auteurs établissent que dans les trois formes d'analyses, les conclusions s'orientent vers la mesure dans laquelle, dans le domaine comptable, l'accent est mis sur la prudence par opposition à l'impartialité. En outre, l'absence ou la présence de croissance dans les activités d'exploitation n'est pertinente que si et seulement si le principe de prudence est appliqué à la comptabilité.     

A portfolio analysis of crop diversification and risk in the cotton south

Scholars have long been aware of the influence of risk on the behavior of farmers.¹ Recently, several econometric historians have studied the influence of risk on the behavior of farmers in the postbellum South (Reid, 1973; Higgs, 1973 and Higgs, 1974; Wright and Kunreuther, 1975 and Wright and Kunreuther, 1977; McGuire and Higgs, 1977). The most recent contributions to this literature analyze the choice between cotton acreage and corn acreage ( Wright and Kunreuther, 1975 and Wright and Kunreuther, 1977; McGuire and Higgs, 1977). Several controversies discussed in those articles have not been resolved. Those controversies concern, for example, whether cotton or corn was the riskier crop in the late 1800s, whether postbellum Southern farmers displayed risk-averting or risk-taking behavior, and whether data and methods employed to analyze acreage management decisions are appropriate. Those controversies are the central concerns of this paper.     

Education and the ability to export manufactures: The relevance to South Africa of the Wood model

According to Wood there is a strong causal relation between education of the population and exports of manufactures. Also, a country that is rich in natural resources will tend to have low manufactured exports, which will be exacerbated by low investment in education. Wood's model is applied to South Africa. Increasing the education of the population will be crucial for expanding higher‐value‐added manufactured exports, increasing per capita incomes and reducing earnings inequality in South Africa.     

FOREIGN BANTU WORKERS IN SOUTH AFRICA: THEIR PRESENT POSITION IN THE ECONOMY

It is not possible to compile accurate statistics about the size, origin, distribution, earnings, remittances and similar measurable aspects of the foreign Bantu labour force in South Africa. From the foregoing discussion it will be obvious that such data are most unlikely to become available in the foreseeable future. There is, however, a growing need for reasonably reliable information concerning economic interrelationships in Southern Africa. The only way to arrive at a workable basis for informed studies of labour matters in the regional context, appears to be the one followed here. By compiling, and fully documenting, as much of the accessible and relevant data as possible into comprehensive and intrinsically consistent tables, the present article can, it is hoped, serve as a convenient starting point for further, more detailed investigations. Briefly, the principal figures derived in the foregoing may be recapitulated. The total number of foreign workers in the Republic in 1964 can be put at roughly half a million men, almost 300,000 (59 per cent.) of them in mining, about 140,000 (29 per cent.) in agriculture, and about 60,000 (12 per cent.) in other employment. In these sectors, they constitute roughly 53, 14, and under 4 per cent. respectively of all Bantu employed there. Approximately 45 per cent. of all foreign workers come from the former High Commission Territories (Basotho accounting for about 60 per cent of this group), about 30 per cent. from Moçambique, 18 per cent. from Rhodesia, Zambia and Malawi together, and the remaining 7 per cent. from South West Africa, Angola, Tanzania and other territories. The total annual earnings of foreigners can be put at R133.4 million (R82.3 million cash and R51.1 million in kind), out of which cash and goods to a total value of R23.9 million (R17.7 million cash and R6.2 million worth of goods) are estimated to be remitted to the countries of origin. About 40 per cent. of the total population of Southern Africa, more than 80 per cent. of its White inhabitants, and approximately two-thirds of the region's wage-earning opportunities for Bantu are to be found in the Republic. Apart from the remittances of migrant workers, the labour supplying countries derive substantial benefits, though of course to a varying degree, from the movement of their nationals to the Republic. These are: 1. the absorption of surplus population into the Bantu groups of the Republic; 2. the fact that at any given moment, a large number of people are living off the resources of another country instead of pressing on inadequate resources at home; 3. the financial benefits from the administrative activities of the recruiting organizations; and 4. the instruction in various subjects imparted to employees on the mines and elsewhere, and generally the knowledge and skills brought back by migrants to their home countries. (The social and economic drawbacks of the migrant labour system cannot be ignored but an evaluation of this system falls outside the scope of this study. It must be recognized that intra-regional labour movements are inextricably bound up with the economic life of Southern Africa. It can, rightly, be pointed out that the abundant supply of foreigners to mining and agriculture in the Republic tends to depress the earnings of indigenous Bantu in these sectors. It is, however, prima facie, open to serious doubt whether drastic reductions in the number of foreign workers is the best way to promote the economic well-being of the local Bantu population. From the standpoint of the labour exporting countries, it is naturally regrettable that their nationals are mostly confined to the less well paying sectors of the South African economy. On the other hand, and in view of the undeveloped state of their economies, they have every reason to welcome such employment opportunities as there may be in the Republic. The newly independent states of the region are earnestly striving to develop their potentialities. By supplying (or releasing) scarce resources, labour migration to the Republic contributes materially, and in the case of Lesotho and Botswana even decisively, towards the attainment of higher levels of living throughout the region. The Republic's neighbours would suffer most if political passion or animosity towards South Africa were to disrupt the present network of the intra-regional flow of labour.     

Global Innovative R&D Offshoring with Heterogeneous Labor: The Role of IPR‐Protection on Technology Transfer and the Brain Drain Effect

Using a North–South framework, this study proposes a theoretical general equilibrium model with multiple Northern firms offshoring innovative R&D to the South. Northern firms vary in their ability to manage Southern researchers, and Southern researchers vary in quality. Southern researchers of higher quality are more productive but also more likely to leave the firm and start a competing firm through imitation of the product. A strengthening of Southern IPR‐protection increases offshoring, global welfare, and innovation while eliminating employment opportunities for skilled Southern researchers. Therefore, stronger Southern IPR‐protection has the potential to contribute to the emigration of highly qualified researchers. The model then predicts the effects of changes to the Northern country as a result of this increased emigration. Increases in Northern technology increase offshoring and innovation while decreasing the amount of technology transferred. The effect of an increase in Northern researcher quality depends on the degree of the increase in productivity as a result of the higher quality workers.     

The causes and impact of the african debt crisis

This article examines the African debt crisis. It focuses on factors leading to the accumulation of the debts and their impact on the debtor nations. The significance of the study lies in the fact that the African debt burden presents a gruesome picture of hopelessness. This is reflected by the continent’s massive debt of $230 billion, equivalent to almost three times the continent’s annual export earnings. This is expected to jump to $550 billion by the year 2000. Africa’s crushing debt burden has become one of the most important factors constraining recovery and development. As the United Nations Children’s Fund estimates, one thousand people die each day in Africa because of the debt crisis. The analysis shows that due to the multifaceted nature of the causes of the debt crisis, both creditors and debtors should agree on the options for dealing with the crisis. It further shows that there is the urgency for Africa to tackle its numerous sociopolitico-economic problems. Africa can make real economic progress only when it begins to get on top of its debt crisis.     

The importance of being earners: why women in South Africa need well-paid jobs

The ‘children fare better’ viewpoint claims that children tend to be better fed if their mother (as opposed to father) has sufficient income of her own for food. This paper assesses this claim for South Africa, using data from household surveys. It considers the possibility that this issue is related to domestic violence between husband and wife, and finds an apparent link between wife's earnings, child nutrition and domestic violence. Children's well-being seems more assured if mothers have an adequate income; but there is more risk of inadequate nutrition in households where there is domestic violence against wives.     

Lewis Growth Model and China's Industrialization*

This paper examines China's industrialization in the light of the Lewis growth model. It begins with a perusal of Lewis's own writings and those of Fei and Ranis to clarify certain assumptions and predictions of the Lewis model. The paper then reviews previous applications of the Lewis model in studying industrialization of other countries, and notes the methodological problems that arise in this regard. In applying the Lewis model to study China's industrialization, the paper focuses on the dynamic relationship between wage and marginal product of labor in the traditional sector. For this purpose, the paper estimates a production function for China's agricultural sector using province level data and compares the estimated marginal product of labor with the corresponding wage of the sector. The results show that the marginal product has been increasing (from below) at a faster pace than the wage, as is predicted by the Lewis model. The results indicate that China as a whole is steadily moving toward the Lewis Turning Point.     

Combining Earnings and Book Value in Equity Valuation*

It is common to apply multipliers to both earnings and book value to calculate approximate equity values. However, applying a price-earnings multiplier or a price-to-book multiplier typically produces two valuations and the analyst is left with the question of how to combine them into one valuation. This paper calculates weights that combine the valuations and shows that these weights vary over the difference between earnings and book value, doing so systematically over time. When earnings are small compared to book value, the weights are different from when earnings are large relative to book value, and they vary in a nonlinear way over the difference between the two. The weights also combine forecasts of future earnings, based on earnings and book value separately, into one composite forecast. The paper calculates a second set of weights to ascertain how the two numbers are combined to forecast one-year-ahead earnings and three-years-ahead earnings. The calculated weights are applied out of sample to ascertain their predictive ability against other benchmarks.     

Unintended Effects of Preannouncements on Investor Reactions to Earnings News*

This study uses an experiment to examine three alternative theoretical explanations for the unintended effects of preannouncements on investor reactions to earnings news. The theoretical explanations are cue consistency, recency effects, and diminishing marginal reactions. The experiment varies the amount of a management preannouncement at five different levels while holding constant consensus analyst expectations prior to the preannouncement and the subsequent earnings announcement. Participants provide preliminary forecasts of current‐ and next‐period earnings per share (EPS) prior to the preannouncement, after the preannouncement, and after the earnings announcement. The pattern of participants' final next‐year EPS forecasts and the results of follow‐up analyses appear most consistent with the predictions of diminishing marginal reactions and, to a somewhat lesser extent, cue consistency, suggesting that both mechanisms play a role in determining the effects of preannouncements. There is little evidence supporting recency effects. Finally, supplemental evidence indicates that participants are unaware that preannouncements influence their reactions to earnings news, suggesting that the effects are unintended. This study has implications for managers who make preannouncement disclosure decisions and for academics who wish to understand and interpret prior research on earnings preannouncements.     

Determinants of the Time Series of Earnings and Implications for Earnings Quality*

This paper examines whether differences in accrual accounting methods across balance sheet accounts influence the time‐series process of earnings. We define earnings quality as the responsiveness of earnings to shifts in permanent earnings and predict that responsiveness will increase in a firm's use of variable rate debt, where accruals move directly with shifts in interest rates. We also predict that responsiveness will decrease in a firm's investment in property plant and equipment because depreciation is largely predetermined and does not respond to shifts in opportunity costs. </P><P>To test these hypotheses, we regress earnings on lagged earnings and a proxy for permanent earnings (that is, the implied dividend annuity in lagged equity value). Within the context of an adjustment cost model, this regression captures the responsiveness of earnings by the coefficient on lagged price and by one minus the coefficient on lagged earnings. Consistent with this framework, we find the unconstrained estimated coefficients on these two variables to be negatively correlated. Furthermore, consistent with our hypotheses, we find that the coefficient on lagged earnings (lagged price) is positively (negatively) associated with the relative magnitude and life of fixed assets on the balance sheet and negatively (positively) associated with the relative magnitude of variable rate debt on the balance sheet.</P>     

Estimating the Impact of Transgenic Bt Cotton on West and Central Africa: A General Equilibrium Approach

West and Central Africa (WCA)’s cotton sector is experiencing rising production costs and lower yields, reversing decades of growth. Declining input use, soil fertility and inefficient chemical pest controls are contributing factors. We evaluate the potential impact of Bt cotton on WCA using a multiregion general equilibrium model and multicountry estimates of Bt-induced productivity. We find that Bt cotton raises growers’ returns, land value and welfare. Released labor from cotton is shifted to food crops hence reducing labor shortage constraints. Overall, results indicate that potential gross benefits from Bt cotton are substantial for WCA cotton sector, and that the economic costs of nonadoption are equally significant.     

Employment constraints and sub-optimality in Chinese enterprises

In China the employment of rural migrants is tightly controlledby government, with regard both to numbers and to jobs: urbanresidents receive preference and are protected against competitionfrom migrants. A survey of enterprises employing both urbanresidents and rural migrants in four cities is analysed, usingenterprise-level earnings comparisons, employment functionsand production functions. We find both 'job discrimination'and 'wage discrimination' against migrants. The two groups arehighly imperfect substitutes or, in a sense, complementary:migrants do the jobs that non-migrants will nor or cannot do.The marginal product of migrants exceeds their wage whereasthat of non-migrants is below their wage. Although many enterpriseshave surplus urban workers, they find it beneficial to hiremigrant workers as well and are constrained in their employmentof migrants.     

Protection of trade for innovation: the roles of Northern and Southern Tariffs

Using a North–South trade model with innovation and imitation, we investigate the interaction of intellectual property rights (IPR) protection and trade protection. We show that unlike a Southern tariff, a Northern tariff supplements IPR protection and is not necessarily a beggar-thy-neighbor policy. The globally optimal Northern tariff increases as IPR protection in the North or the South decreases. Global welfare may rise as Northern tariff increases, but necessarily declines as Southern tariff increases. This suggests that pushing for freer trade in the South is more urgent than in the North in innovation-intensive sectors where IPR protections are weak in both regions.