The Enlarged EU and Russia-What Do Visegrad-Countries Contribute to EU-Russian Economic Relationship?

Abstract

The European Union's economic strategy on Russia had not been clearly and consistently worked out by the time of the 2004 May enlargement; major questions still needed to be answered. Since new member-states had not been really involved into the process of shaping EU policy toward its ‘strategic partner’, their approaches should be also included into the EU Russia-policy in the future. Though enlargement certainly brings about growing importance and new perspectives into the EU-Russia dialog, it will create new problems or deepen some old ones as well.

Beside Baltic-states, that have their special interests and attitudes-Visegrad-countries (Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and to a less degree the Czech Republic) are the most interested new-members in this dialog. They may turn to be either the most active ones in taking part of shaping EU-Russian economic and political dialog from among the 10 newcomers or the most influential ones in doing so. The role of Poland in this process is undoubtedly unique.

Notwithstanding the fact that characteristics of bilateral economic relations (Polish-Russian, Hungarian-Russian, etc.) are common to a great extent, it seems to be unlikely that these countries will intend or will be able to cooperate on this issue. The reasons for potential and already sensible divergence in their attitudes toward Russiacontrary to their more or less similar approaches regarding Ukraineare rooted more in politics then in different economic interests. Analysing figures concerning bilateral trade and investment flows indicates these common features. Energy is in the focus of Russian-Visegrad4 economic relations.     

Das deutsche Russlandgeschäft im Schatten der Krise: gefährliche Abhängigkeiten?

In view of the Russian annexation of Crimea and its ongoing efforts to destabilise Ukraine, political decision-makers in the EU and the US are considering economic sanctions against Russia. The article analyses whether the German economy would be affected by restrictions on trade and investment relations. As a result, German exporters would suffer from restrictions on business relations with Russia, but they would be able to compensate for possible losses. Russian gas export interruptions, however, would be a more severe problem. Due to Russia’s dependence on revenues from the export of natural resources as well as on technology imports from Western countries, the Russian economy would be hit particularly hard.     

EU Enlargement Creating a Framework for the Eu-Russian Rapprochement

Abstract

The Eastern enlargement of the European Union has substantial influence on EU external policy and its relations with non-EU countries, including Russia. In this situation, Russia's main concern is to avoid the creation of new dividing lines after the enlargement. This paper will argue that instead of dividing Europe, the EU enlargement would create a framework for further cooperation and eventually rapprochement between the EU and Russia. Therefore, Russia would be able to benefit from this process. The paper will analyse the consequences of the EU enlargement for Russia and examine the main political concepts determining directions of this rapprochement between the European Union and Russia: New Neighbourhood, Common Spaces and Eastern dimension.     

Wie geht es mit dem Brexit weiter?

The UK’s 2016 EU referendum may account for great income losses in the UK. Gabriel Felbermayr et al. use a “new” quantitative trade model to assess various Brexit scenarios. The results broadly show that all EU member states lose, and the relative losses in the UK are about five times those of the average remaining EU country. These findings have important implications for the EU’s negotiation strategy. The outcome depends largely on the decisions about trade relations. Michael Hüther thinks that the UK is heading for an extremely hard Brexit and that it already shows. Therefore, the UK government should work out a consistent industrial policy and make up its mind about its preferences on its future economic relationship with its neighbours. In light of the currently very close and mutually welfare-enhancing business relations between the EU27 and the UK, one of the central tasks and challenges of the Brexit negotiations is undoubtedly the creation of a new supportive post-supranational legal framework governing these economic transactions in the future. Andreas Grimmel argues that the EU’s crises are largely the result of a certain mode of integration that is based on actors’ interests rather than on a comprehensive constitutional framework.     

The EU Anti‐dumping Policy Towards Russia and China: Product Quality and the Choice of an Analogue Country

This paper uses the theory of international trade in vertically differentiated products in order to assess whether the EU has calculated disproportionately high dumping margins in its anti‐dumping policy towards the two non‐market economies (NMEs) Russia and China since 1992. Specifically, the investigation concerns cases in which the level of economic development in and the quality of the products from the chosen analogue country are higher than in the two NMEs. The conclusion drawn here is that, even when the EU chooses analogue countries at a higher level of economic development than Russia and China, the differences in product quality and in the levels of economic development between the dumpers and the analogue countries provide no systematic explanation of the size of dumping margins.     

中俄经贸合作对俄语专业人才培养的影响及建议

俄罗斯是中国最大的邻国,且地大物博,资源丰富。1992年来,中俄两国开创了睦邻友好新局面,两国关系走上了全面发展的健康轨道。经过20多年的合作发展,到2019年,中俄两国关系提升为“新时代中俄全面战略协作伙伴关系”,并提出将两国的贸易额从2018年的1000亿美元提升到2024年2000亿美元的目标,使中俄经贸合作再上一个新台阶。中俄两国贸易处于合作发展的快速时期,合作前景广阔,与此同时对高素质的俄语人才的需求急剧增加。对中俄经贸合作的发展现状进行简单阐述,从而简单分析中俄经贸合作对俄语人才培养的影响,并进一步提出培养适合当前中俄经贸发展的高素质复合型俄语人才的相关途径。     

俄罗斯国家经济安全对中俄经贸合作的影响

20世纪以来,俄罗斯经历了乌克兰危机、西方经济制裁、国际油价下跌等外部因素的冲击,经济安全遭受严重威胁,在此背景下的俄罗斯政治经济战略势必波及中俄经贸合作,进而影响丝绸之路经济带建设。本文从贸易合作和对外直接投资合作方面,基于计量模型剖析俄罗斯国家经济安全对中俄经贸合作的影响过程及关联因素。研究表明俄罗斯国家经济安全危机提升了中国在俄贸易伙伴国中的地位,促使俄与中国产能合作的意愿强烈,直接投资和产能合作逐渐成为推动中俄经贸合作向纵深发展的强劲动力;俄罗斯国家经济安全危机对中俄罗贸易有显著负向影响,中俄政治关系对贸易合作有显著正向影响。这是提高中国对俄罗斯投资、提升高新技术产品在俄罗斯进口比重的机遇期,亦是推进丝绸之路经济带的重要机遇期。经济强势崛起的俄罗斯和经济体系全面崩溃的俄罗斯对丝绸之路经济带的推进均有重要影响,在与其发展战略协作伙伴关系过程中,中国恰到好处地拿捏平衡其中的大国利益边界至关重要。     

加快推进中俄经贸高质量发展:基于产业链构建视角

高质量发展不仅成为中国经济发展的航标,也是中国对外经贸关系发展的行动指南。但从中俄两国经贸发展的现实来看,双边贸易规模波动比较大、贸易结构欠优、中间产品贸易占比低等问题均与经贸高质量发展要求不符。究其原因,缺乏产业对接与合作是制约中俄两国经贸高质量发展的关键因素。本文以中俄能源合作为例,以"能源+通道+市场"模式,搭建"俄罗斯主导、中国嵌入,中俄共同主导、相互嵌入,中国主导、俄罗斯嵌入"的产业链,实现上中下游全产业链合作,夯实两国贸易发展的产业基础,促进贸易与产业的互动发展,以产业链构建加快推进中俄两国经贸高质量发展。     

中俄边境贸易发展的学理性研究——以黑龙江省与俄罗斯的贸易合作为例

中俄边境贸易是中俄两国经贸关系的重要组成部分,黑龙江省与俄罗斯的贸易合作不仅对黑龙江省经济发展具有不可替代的重要作用,同时在中俄贸易中也占有举足轻重的地位。从生产要素的自由流动、比较优势、资源、产业的互补性、竞争性以及对经济发展的拉动作用等视角,运用经济学的基本原理分析双方的贸易规模、贸易结构、贸易差额、贸易效应,在互利共赢的基础上巩固双方的传统贸易优势,优化进出口商品结构,促进以技术贸易为先导的产业合作,实现贸易对本区域经济发展的拉动作用。     

中朝韩经贸关系纵深发展的战略进路

随着东北亚地区经济联系的日益紧密,域内国家间的相互依存度明显提高.东北亚经济合作划时代的契机是域内国家签订自由贸易协定,从而平行地促进产业分工.中朝韩三国经贸合作规模的提升和发展速度的提高,可以推动一度因日本态度消极而搁浅的中日韩自由贸易区建设,并将成为东北亚经济合作发展的催化剂.中朝经贸发展的能动力在于中国建设性的参与朝鲜的经济革新发展,而中韩经贸发展的增长点则在于加速建立自由贸易区.     

Brexit and its economic consequences

As the formal process of Brexit has already started, there is much uncertainty about Brexit's impacts on Britain's social, political and economic future. This paper examines the economic impact. After briefly discussing some significant EU treaties that serve as the background materials, it presents the key arguments advocated by the leave and remain camps. The economic impact depends critically on the negotiation outcomes. Aside from the debate on the divorce costs, there are numerous issues that must be negotiated, such as immigration, trade in goods, services, agriculture, fisheries and financial regulations. We discuss various scenarios of possible new trade regimes, resulting in different impacts on the UK economy. With each side having its bargaining chips to play, the trade‐offs between “give and take” in the negotiation game are analysed. Considering various strategic options, this paper urges rationality and cooperation, especially weighing both sides’ entwined economic interests, in addition to their mutual security, defence, environmental and world concerns. The potential gains and losses in the event where the UK contemplates new trade arrangements with the non‐EU countries are analysed in the Appendix .     

构建中欧经贸关系“合作范式”研究

近期欧盟对华经贸政策日趋强硬,中欧经贸摩擦不断增多,未来的争端焦点将主要集中在知识产权、政府采购、资源性产品、产品安全、贸易救济等方面。对此,中国要站在和平发展的战略高度来看待,积极打造中欧经贸关系"合作范式",在欧债危机的背景下以合适的方式施以援手,在全球经济治理中加强合作,做好投资欧洲的战略和技术性准备,不断拓展与深化中欧合作领域。     

浅谈新时期中俄经贸发展

随着经济全球化的不断深入，中俄双边贸易规模不断扩大，现已连续保持了9年的快速增长势头，但远未达到中俄贸易合作应有潜力，仍存在提升的空间。本文通过对中俄经贸发展的规模与结构分析，阐述了提升中俄经贸关系所存在的现实基础和主要问题，并有针对性地提出解决思路。     

WTO背景下扩大黑龙江省对俄产业内贸易规模的对策研究

近年来中俄双边贸易增长迅速,其中黑龙江省连续多年对俄贸易额占我国对俄贸易总额的25%左右,是全国对俄贸易第一大省。俄罗斯加入WTO之后,市场正式与世界经济接轨,市场环境进一步规范化,经济竞争力进一步提升。这将给中俄经贸合作带来新的机遇,同时也使两国的合作面临新的挑战。中俄贸易以互补型产业间贸易为主,限制了中俄经贸合作的深度和广度。因此,随着俄加入WTO,黑龙江省应及时调整对俄经贸合作的战略、结构和模式,抓住机遇,迎接挑战,努力寻找新的增长点,搭建新的互认互惠桥梁,实现互利共赢、共同发展。其中,产业内贸易开拓了一条实现中俄双边贸易利益的新途径。     

开拓对俄经贸对齐齐哈尔物流市场的影响研究

随着中俄两国关系的逐步发展,为齐齐哈尔市发展对俄经贸提供了难得的机遇,齐市应该加大对俄经贸市场开拓的力度,以实现产业结构的升级。主要措施有:推进齐市对俄物流体系建设;建设带有独特特色的对俄市场;与俄罗斯连手打造科技产业基地;积极与俄罗斯IT产业合作,大力发展服务外包产业;开拓对俄家电产品售后服务维修市场;充分利用"哈大齐工业走廊",开拓对俄经贸大通道等。     

中俄合作“伞”型新模式的现实支撑——哈牡绥东对俄贸易加工区的建设

中俄区域经济合作的＂伞＂型模式为中国东北振兴与俄罗斯东部地区开发之间的互动合作提供了崭新的思路,而新模式的实行离不开中俄双方共同的努力。哈牡绥东对俄贸易加工区的建设,无论从近期的优化资源配置,形成地方国际化产业集群,还是从远期的进一步加速生产要素聚集,实现东北亚区域内的互动合作,都为中方构建新模式提供了强有力的支撑。     

Anti‐dumping: What are the Numbers to Discuss at Doha?

While tariff barriers have decreased worldwide through various GATT rounds, anti‐dumping has surged to play a crucial role as the most important non‐tariff barrier. After much debate and opposition, anti‐dumping is on the agenda of the Doha round of multilateral trade negotiations and it is one of the most important issues, especially for developing countries as they are the main targets of this policy instrument. With this prospect, it is important to assess the relevance of anti‐dumping not only by focusing on traditional users but by analysing the experience of new users, which are now major players in the field. This paper improves upon existing studies by providing a comprehensive assessment on the use of anti‐dumping. First, data on the time pattern of worldwide implementations of anti‐dumping laws are presented. This time profile shows interesting relationships with legal developments in GATT and WTO dispositions. Second, usual sources of data are complemented with various other sources. This allows the inclusion of recent heavy users like China, Russia, Taiwan and Ukraine, which are ignored in similar studies but important for their trade volumes. This enlarged and updated dataset shows that new users are even more important than previously thought, with implications for the Doha negotiations.     

《洛美协定》对当前中非经贸合作的启示

近年来,中非经贸合作日益加强。随着非洲地区经济进入快速增长期,美欧等发达国家开始积极调整对非经贸政策以应对中国在非洲经贸关系中地位的迅速提升。在此背景下,中非经贸政策安排将面临欧美国家的挑战。与非洲经贸关系有着制度性整体安排并卓有成效的当属欧盟与以非洲国家为主的非加太地区签署的《洛美协定》,其可以为中非经贸合作提供有益借鉴。本文将深入梳理、分析《洛美协定》产生的历史背景和核心内容,并对当前中非经贸合作安排提出相关建议。     

Growth Potential for Maritime Trade and Ports in Europe

Global economic development in recent decades has been characterised by a rapidly progressing intensification in world trade and the international division of labour. As a result of the expansive development of international merchandise trade, cargo shipping has been one of the fastest growing economic sectors. The progressive global integration processes, the future reduction in trade barriers and the expected increase in prosperity in numerous regions of the world will also call for a marked expansion in world trade and cargo shipping. This designates maritime logistics as an economic sector with favourable perspectives for development. What growth rates can be expected for EU maritime trade? And what impact will these have on Europe’s ports? This article is based on the HWWI and Berenberg Bank study “Maritime Trade and Transport Logistics” published in 2007.     

Effects of multilateral and preferential trade policy reform in Africa: The case of Uganda

Abstract

This paper estimates the effects on production, trade and economic welfare of current trade policy regimes throughout the world on Uganda relative to other economies. This will be a benchmark against which to examine various multilateral and preferential trade policy scenarios that might emerge over the next decade as part of the WTO's Doha Round and from the expected move later this decade towards Economic Partnership Agreements with the European Union. The results suggest modest gains or worse for Uganda, in part because it already has low tariffs and ready preferential access to rich-country markets. Several important caveats to this type of analysis are stressed though, before drawing out some trade and policy implications for Uganda.