中国上市银行现金股利分配影响因素研究

现金股利分配是上市银行的重要财务管理活动,合理分配现金股利对上市银行至关重要。基于2009年至2013年上海和深圳两个证券交易所上市的16家银行的数据,从上市银行的盈利能力、负债水平、现金流量和银行规模等方面,选取相应指标构建回归模型进行实证分析,发现盈利能力和负债水平对我国上市银行现金股利分配有显著影响,而现金流量与银行规模对现金股利分配的影响并不显著。     

中国货币运行中现金漏损率的变化规律及其原因分析

文章首次采用结构突变模型,将现金漏损率纳入资产需求理论分析框架对中国的现金漏损率的变化规律和影响因素进行实证研究.得到如下结论:现金漏损率的变化在1992年发生了明显的结构突变,改革开放以来,中国现金漏损率变化呈现先上升后下降的阶段性特征,存在明显的季节性波动规律;1992年之前,现金漏损率的不断上升主要归因于物价上涨因素,而1992年之后,现金漏损率的逐渐下降则主要是由于中国经济的持续增长与金融改革的深化造成的;而近段时间通胀预期和各地出台的各种地产调控有可能导致现金漏损率反弹.因此文章建议,当前在稳定物价和房价的同时,必须开辟更多的金融投资渠道,以免现金漏损率的反弹带来通胀的潜在隐患.     

高管薪酬差距、现金持有及其市场价值——基于不同产权性质比较

薪酬差距这一话题引起社会各界的广泛关注，国内外学者对此问题已经进行了大量的研究，并取得了丰硕的成果，但目前我国上市公司高管薪酬差距如何影响其现金持有水平及其价值，几乎尚未见探讨。基于此背景，以中国A股2005—2018年非金融类上市公司为研究对象，实证考察了不同产权性质公司高管薪酬差距对其现金持有水平及价值的影响。研究结果表明：国企高管薪酬差距增加了现金持有量，降低了现金持有价值；民企高管薪酬差距降低了现金持有量，但提高了现金持有价值；稳健性检验表明文中论断依然成立；进一步分析可知国企高管薪酬差距更加倾向于增加内部现金流用于现金持有的积累，且同时导致过度投资水平的增加，民企高管薪酬差距降低了内部现金流用于现金持有的积累，对过度投资水平影响不显著。从以上结果可以得出，国企高管薪酬差距对现金持有行为的影响支持了社会比较理论；民企高管薪酬差距对现金持有行为的影响支持了锦标赛理论。     

建筑施工企业现金管理

现金是变现能力最强的非盈利性资产,旨在研究如何对建筑施工企业现金的流动性和收益性进行管理。结合现金管理领域较为前沿的方式以及行业的现状,创新研究了建筑行业现金特殊的管理方式。通过研究可以使建筑施工企业更有效地管理现金,特别是对现金数量方面和时间方面进行管理,以保证企业日常活动的需要,提高资金投资回报率。     

Applicability of the Classic WACC Concept in Practice

ABSTRACT

A large percentage of companies use the discounted cash flow (DCF) approach as the primary technique for investment/project evaluation and the capital budgeting process. This approach requires forecasting the detailed cash flow of the project under evaluation and then discounting the resulting cash flow to the present value (Net Present Value–NPV) using an appropriate discount rate.

The discount rate commonly used represents the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) of the firm. There is no scarcity of literature on this subject as the concept has been around for the last 50 years or so. Although most analysts believe the concept is simple and very well known, the irony is that its misinterpretation and misuse prevails. There are many versions of the WACC equation and each is specific to a certain cash flow. Therefore, using the classic WACC relationship in all cases may result in the calculation of an overly optimistic NPV. Depending on the cash flow pattern, the investment may show a positive NPV at the classic WACC but it will actually be losing equity.

This paper highlights (a) pitfalls and misuses of the WACC, (b) interdependence between types of cash flow and WACC, (c) assumptions behind the WACC and whether these assumptions are realistic, and (d) alternative approaches to arrive at the correct net present value (NPV). Company CEOs, management, analysts, and other investors using the WACC for investment decisions need to be fully aware of its pitfalls and misuses.

RESUMEN. Un gran porcentaje de empresas usan el enfoque del flujo de caja descontado (DCF–discounted cash flow), como la técnica principal para evaluar las inversiones/proyectos y el proceso de elaboración del presupuesto de capital. Este enfoque exige la proyección detallada del flujo de caja del proyecto bajo análisis y, a continuación, el redescuento del flujo de caja resultante al valor actual-Valor Actual Neto (Net Present Value–NPV) utilizando una tasa de redescuento apropiada.

La tasa de descuento comúnmente utilizada representa el Costo de Capital Medio Ponderado (Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) de la empresa. No falta literatura a este respecto, ya que el concepto ha existido ya alrededor de 50 años. Aunque la mayoría de los analistas creen que el mismo es simple y muy conocido, irónicamente, lo que prevalece es su mala interpretación y uso equivocado. Existen muchas versiones sobre la ecuación WACC, y cada una se identifica con un flujo de caja específico. Consecuentemente, el uso de la relación WACC clásica puede resultar, en todos los casos, en un cálculo de NPV exageradamente optimista. Dependiendo del tipo de flujo de caja, la inversión puede mostrar un NPV positivo con un WACC clásico, cuando en realidad estará perdiendo patrimonio.

Este documento coloca en destaque (a) escollos y mal uso del WACC, (b) interdependencia entre el tipo de flujo de caja y el WACC, (c) presunciones por detrás del WACC, y si ellas son realistas, y (d) mostrar enfoques alternativos para llegar al valor actual neto correcto (NPV). El CEO de la empresa, su gerencia, analistas y otros inversores usarán el WACC para tomar decisiones inherentes a la inversión.

RESUMO. Uma grande porcentagem das empresas usa a abordagem do fluxo de caixa descontado (DCF) como técnica básica de avaliação de investimentos/projetos e do processo de orçamentação de capital. Essa abordagem requer que se preveja o fluxo de caixa detalhado do projeto sob avaliação e, depois, desconte o fluxo de caixa resultante para obter o valor presente líquido (NPV) usando uma taxa de desconto apropriada.

A taxa de desconto geralmente usada representa o Custo de Capital Médio Ponderado (WACC–Weighted Average Cost of Capital) da empresa. A literatura sobre este tema é abundante, já que o conceito existe há uns 50 anos. Embora a maioria dos analistas considere o conceito simples e bem conhecido, o fato é que erros de interpretação e utilização predominam. Existem muitas vers$oTes da equação do WACC, cada uma específica a certo fluxo de caixa. Portanto, aplicar a relação WACC clássica a todos os casos pode resultar em cálculos de NPVs otimistas demais. Dependendo do padrão de fluxo de caixa, o investimento pode exibir um NPV positivo no WACC clássico, quando na verdade estará perdendo patrimônio.

Este artigo realça (a) as armadilhas e usos equivocados do WACC, (b) as interdependências entre tipo de fluxo de caixa e WACC, (c) pressupostos por trás do WACC e se esses pressupostos são realistas, e (d) mostra abordagens alternativas para se chegar ao valor presente líquido (NPV) correto. Visa os CEOs das empresas, a gerência, os analistas e utros investidores que usam o WACC nas decisões de investimentos.     

浅谈现金流量管理的意义

近代理财学发展的一个重要结论就是:资产的内在价值是其未来现金流量的现值,而且现金流量指标在评价企业经营业绩和财务状况方面有着很大的优越性,因此,现今流量越来越受到人们的关注,这也使现金流量管理的地位逐渐得到提高。但由于长期以来人们对现金流量管理的意义没有一个清晰的认识,所以有必要对其进行一下论述。     

Understanding the New Potato Futures Contract and Its Implications for Marketing

ABSTRACT

This paper provides an economic interpretation of the prices for the recently introduced potato futures contract trading on the New York Cotton Exchange, based on a review of economic literature. Potatoes differ from other commodities traded on futures markets, because they are stored from one crop year to the next. Harvest contract prices are expected to be similiar each year when first introduced for trading, but become more variable as specific supply and demand information for that year becomes available. Spreads across crop years will be much less correlated than spreads within a crop year. Inverse carrying charges are not expected within the crop year.     

Determinants of Federal Reserve lending to failed banks

Many of the banks that failed in the years 1985–1990 borrowed from the Federal Reserve for extended periods in their last year. This article tests hypotheses about the determinants of borrowings by banks that failed in these years. Results are consistent with the hypothesis that borrowings were greatest among the banks with the greatest liquidity needs in their last year. They do not support the hypothesis that the Fed favored member banks in its allocation of credit to troubled banks. The results indicate significant variation in lending practices across Federal Reserve districts, and there is weaker evidence of variation in lending practices across time.The rate of bank failure in the second half of the 1980s and early 1990s was high relative to failure rates in earlier decades. Many of the failed banks borrowed from the Federal Reserve for extended periods in their last year. Of the sample of failed banks in this study, 58% borrowed at some time in their last year, and 48% borrowed in their last three months. In most cases, the Federal Reserve would have been aware of the financial problems of these banks when lending to them, based on the supervisory ratings of the condition of the banks.Congress acted in 1991 to restrict Federal Reserve lending to undercapitalized banks, in the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Improvement Act of 1991 (FDICIA). These restrictions were based on the view that Federal Reserve lending to undercapitalized banks increased the losses of the FDIC in bank failure cases.There was a lot of variation among the borrowers in terms of the length of time they borrowed and average borrowings relative to their total deposits. This variation makes it possible to test hypotheses about the borrowings of these banks near the time of their failure. One hypothesis is that the Federal Reserve made credit available to the troubled banks with the greatest liquidity needs. Banks with liquidity needs have exhausted most of their liquid assets, must draw down reserves to pay depositors who are withdrawing funds, and cannot raise funds in the private sector. Fed lending to the troubled banks with the greatest liquidity needs would have given supervisors time to determine which banks to close and the methods for resolving the failed bank cases.¹ Another hypothesis is that variation among the banks in the patterns of their borrowings reflected preferences of the Fed to aid some banks rather than others, such as banks that were members of the Federal Reserve System. Yet another hypothesis is that the variation in patterns of borrowings reflected differences in Fed practices across districts and across time in lending to troubled banks.Tests of these hypotheses do not indicate whether the practice of Federal Reserve lending to troubled banks was good policy.² These tests, however, may shed light on the factors that motivated the Fed to lend to troubled banks.     

管理者过度自信与企业投资行为异化——来自我国证券市场的证据

Based on data of A-shares listed companies in China, this paper studies the relationship between managerial overconfidence and firms’ overinvestment behaviors. We first define a manager as an overconfident one if his or her compan’s announced earnings forecast is higher than its actual earnings at least once in 2002–2004. After controlling such factors as growing opportunity, size, etc., we find that overconfident managers tend to over-invest and their overinvestment behaviors have higher sensitivity to cash flow generated by financing activities. In other word, when their firms obtain an abundant cash flow from financing activities, overconfident managers will over-invest, or vise versa. Contrary to other relevant studies, we find that the sensitivity between over-investment and free cash flow has little to do with managerial overconfidence. Robustness testing is conducted to verify the reliability of our conclusions. We also use “whether top managers increase their holdings of company shares within the observation period” as a substitute variable for managerial overconfidence and run the tests again, and the results are consistent with the above. Finally, findings of this paper indicate that it is necessary for firms to establish a scientific and rigorous investment managing mechanism. Translated and revised from Nankai Guanli Pinglun 南开管理评论 (Nankai Business Review), 2008, (2): 77–83     

A SUPPLY CHAIN‐ORIENTED APPROACH OF WORKING CAPITAL MANAGEMENT

This article analyzes and illustrates the role of payment terms for working capital improvements in supply chains. So far, research has shown how individual industries and powerful companies were able to enhance their cash‐to‐cash cycles at both their supplier's and customer's expense. From a “network perspective,” the exploitation of individual advantages by a single powerful company lowers the overall financial wealth of the supply chain. Therefore, a collaborative working capital management approach is proposed, by which the cash‐to‐cash cycles of companies with the lowest weighted average cost of capital (WACC) should be extended, while companies with higher financing costs are relieved by a shortened cash‐to‐cash cycle. An unequal distribution of power, however, between supply chain members can be the main hindrance for developing a collaborative working capital management solution.     

现金股利、股权结构和组织特征:一个Logistic分析

本文以763家上海证券交易所A股上市公司2003年的横截面数据为观察值,运用logistic回归分析分别考察了股权结构和组织特征对现金股利发放概率的实证影响。本文发现,股权结构(第一大股东持股、前二大股东持股和前三大股东持股)对现金股利发放概率具有显著的正向影响。公司各项组织特征(成长性机会、每股收益、每股留存盈余、资产规模和财务杠杆)也对现金股利发放概率具有显著的影响。本文的结论支持自由现金流假说。     

浅谈确立现金流量作为财务管理核心的必要性

当前世界上许多跨国公司重视现金流量甚于重视利润,增加现金流量净额除适度负债、正确地进行投资以外,还有一个重要的因素就是缩短现金循环周期。因此,确立现金流量作为财务管理核心很有必要。本文将对这些问题进行探讨,以抛砖引玉,引起共鸣。     

Why Greater Cash Holdings and Short-Term Debt Simultaneously Persist? The Case of Transition Economy

This study observes and explores a puzzle in Chinese firms whereby both cash holdings and short-term debt simultaneously account for more than 20% of total assets for at least two consecutive years over the sample period. This phenomenon conflicts with the principle of corporate value maximization, and is not clearly explained by the classical theories in corporate finance. Based on the implications in the extant literature and discussions of institutional constraints of the transition economy in China, this paper develops four hypotheses that are involved with agency conflicts between the largest shareholders and creditors and the formation of this puzzling financial structure. The empirical analyses suggest that the largest shareholders with tunneling motives seek to hold more cash to serve their private interests and/or the consequent operational deficit of the listed corporations. To the ends, these corporations tend to manage the timing of short term debt financing to increase cash reserves temporarily at the end of year. Essentially, greater cash holdings on the balance sheet of these corporations related with the puzzle become a misleading signal for potential creditors, possibly contributing to the refinancing of short-term debt of these listed firms for the following year. Hence, the puzzling financial structure is connected with the timing of debt financing and adverse selection of creditors. This study enriches the stream of literature on cash holdings and debt maturity, and provides new evidence on the impact of agency problems of the largest shareholders on the association between cash holdings and debt maturity in the context of a transition economy.     

中国上市公司现金流管理研究——兼对中美市场现金流管理行为比较研究

This paper examines cash flow management in the Chinese market and compares it to that in the U.S. market. It adopts Burgstahler and Dichev (1997) and Degeorge et al.’s (1999) method and the best-fitted distribution model to analyze the financial data of Chinese listed firms during 1998–2005 and the forecasted cash flow per share (CPS) data for Chinese firms in the I/B/E/S database during 1993–2005. Results reveal that cash flows reports are not as reliable as people think, and managers manipulate cash flows just as they manipulate earnings. Further analyses show that zero point, last year’s cash flow and analyst cash flow forecast are the three thresholds that influence managers’ decision when they report cash flow performance. Over 16% of the firms with small positive cash flows manipulate their cash flow. Moreover, 16.64% of the firms with small changes in cash flow and 9.81% of the firms with small surprises manipulate cash flows to reach the targets. A comparative analysis shows that cash flow management behaviors around zero and zero changes are more prevalent in the Chinese market than in the U.S. market. Cash flow management around analyst cash flow forecasts, however, is no more prevalent than that in the U.S. market. Translated and revised from Zhongguo Kuaiji Pinglun 中国会计评论 (China Accounting Review), 2007, 5(3): 381–400     

Consumer Consumption and Perceptions of Salmon

Abstract

The percentoffarmed salmon production has grown from 20.3% of total world salmon supply in 1989 to 52.0% in 1998. This trend poses a major challenge for the wild salmon industry. The impact of the wild salmon industry's marketing programs on the demand for ocean-caught salmon needs to be addressed. This study explored the consumption and perceptions of wild and farmed salmon among college students. Results showed that salmon consumption varied noticeably within this market segment, as well as consumers' familiarity with the terms wild salmon and farmed salmon and related issues and attributes. These findings suggest that the wild salmon industry may need to place more emphasis on product differentiation awareness and promotion campaigns targeting niche markets to increase sales of ocean-caught salmon.     

Sensitivity of external resources to cash flow under financial constraints

This paper explores the external financing–cash flow relationship in capital structure theory by comparing unlisted (financially constrained) and listed (financially unconstrained) companies. We postulate that investment is determined endogenously in the case of unlisted firms, as they are strongly dependent on internally generated funds (cash flow). Consequently, unlisted firms invest their cash flow in profitable projects, using any residual cash flow to increase their holdings of safe assets. In turn, listed companies determine their investment exogenously and may reduce leverage if they raise an excess of cash flow. As a result, listed companies would react more negatively to shocks in cash flow. Our findings reveal that both unlisted and listed companies show a negative external financing–cash flow relationship, that of the latter being clearly more intense.     

基于迎合理论的中国上市公司现金股利变更性研究

基于现金股利变更的动态视角,利用2000－2013年度中国证券市场的数据,分别从市场整体迎合与上市公司单个迎合方面,实证检验了迎合理论在中国证券市场的适用性。研究发现,迎合理论能够作为解释中国上市公司分配现金股利的原因。从市场整体状况来看,上市公司的当年度现金股利意愿与上年度的市场股利溢价之间存在明显的相同趋势,而从上市公司状况来看,若上市公司的现金股利意愿与市场股利溢价水平之间的差距越大,则更有可能变更现金股利形式以迎合证券市场投资者的需求。     

How Large Is the Risk of Stagflation in the Eurozone?

The rapid recovery of demand combined with supply constraints has led to rising prices during the past months. This is evident in oil and gas markets, but also in international trade, which has been thrown out of step by bottlenecks at Asian ports. This situation creates a trade-off for the European Central Bank, because a more expansionary monetary policy cannot mitigate the supply bottlenecks and supply-side restrictions, while a more restrictive monetary policy would slow down the economic recovery. For this reason, key interest rate hikes in the eurozone are not to be expected for 2022. If the supply-side factors become persistent and wage policy tries to pass the price effects on, monetary policy will be forced to become restrictive.

     

Operating performance of European bank mergers

With very few exceptions the accepted viewpoint established by (predominantly) US research is that bank operating performance is not improved after merger. In this article we concentrate on European banks and investigate post-merger operating performance for 35 publicly listed bank mergers that were completed between 1992 and 1997. We find that industry-adjusted mean cash flow return did not significantly change after merger but stayed positive. We also find that the merger led to a significant decrease in profitability and capitalisation. Our key finding, in contrast to the US evidence, is that cost-efficiency ratios improved, although the improvement was not large enough to offset the profitability decrease. We also find that low profitability levels, conservative credit policies and good cost-efficiency status before merger are the main determinants of industry-adjusted cash flow returns and provide the source for improving these returns after merger.     

公司治理机制对公司现金持有量的影响——来自我国上市公司的经验证据

本文以我国部分上市公司为样本实证研究了公司治理机制对公司现金持有量的影响。结果表明,公司治理机制并未对公司现金持有量形成显著影响,从公司现金持有量的视角为我国上市公司治理机制的不完善性提供了经验证据。