Poland's Investment Development Path and Industry Structure of FDI Inflows and Outflows

ABSTRACT

This study explores changes in industry composition of FDI inflows to and outflows from Poland, using the conceptual framework of J. Dunning's model of the investment development path (IDP). The data time frame used (from 1996 to 2005) allows for identification of significant changes in FDI structure as Poland moves through stage 2 of her IDP. The leading position of the manufacturing sector in both FDI inflows and outflows is replaced by services (especially financial and trade). The last section presents policy implications focused on measures designed to redress the imbalance between the still much larger inflows than outflows of FDI.     

ASEAN's role in Japan's economic policy in East Asia

Although Japan's economic and trade policy with the United States and Europe has been widely researched in such works as Tyson (1992), relatively less research has been done on Japan's recent trade and economic policies towards other East Asian countries such as Korea and Taiwan. Since the mid-1980s, because of rising labor costs and appreciation of the Japanese yen, Japan has increased manufacturing production in ASEAN countries such as Thailand and Malaysia. The purpose of this short article is to discuss Japan's increased economic focus in Asia, and implications for East Asian countries such as Korea and Taiwan. © 1993 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Successes and dangers of Japanese foreign trade strategy

Japan's high and increasing trade and current account surpluses have aroused in the other industrialized nations a growing fear of Far Eastern competition. Some countries consider that protectionist measures are the only suitable response to increasing imports from Japan. Japan's “unfair” conduct of its foreign trade is often cited as a reason for such a reaction. Is this reproach justified? What can be done to avert the dangers to both Japan's foreign trade and the world economy caused by this situation?     

No Risk,No Fun? Foreign Direct Investment in Central and Eastern Europe

In the course of transition from planned economies to market economies, foreign direct investment played an important role and contributed to international economic integration in Central and Eastern Europe. This paper investigates the determinants of FDI in Central and Eastern Europe, a region which in large part still lacks strong institutions. The empirical analysis presented in this article fi nds evidence that country default risk is not necessarily a hindrance to FDI. In contrast, factors like market size, labour cost and trade liberalisation do matter for FDI engagement in the region.     

Bulgaria's Inward FDI and EU Accession

Bulgaria's extraordinary openness performance in terms of international trade and inward foreign direct investment (FDI) volumes has not been affected by both the country's failure to reach the levels of structural transformation and technological upgrading achieved by Central and Eastern Europe member states and by the failure to comply with European Union (EU) law within certain time frames. Although a substantial literature has evolved on the country's inward FDI due to this performance, empirical microeconomic studies explore the time frame up to EU accession. This study focuses on the effect of EU accession in order to revisit Bulgaria's primary inward FDI determinants via a meso-economic panel analysis of disaggregated data by industry. The findings indicate the neglected importance of extra-EU exports as a driver of Bulgaria's inward FDI and the appropriateness of micro-/meso-approaches to the subject.     

CENTRAL AND EAST EUROPEAN TRADE ORIENTATION AND FDI FLOWS: PREPARATION FOR EU MEMBERSHIP

At the June 1997 Amsterdam Intergovernmental Conference (IGC) the heads of state of the 15 European Union (EU) nations decided to expand to the East. At the Luxembourg IGC in December 1997, they invited the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Estonia, and Solvenia from Central and East Europe (CEE) and Cyprus from the Mediterranean region to begin admission talks in early 1998. Efficient involvement in international trade and the division of labor through foreign direct investment (FDI) are two of the most important prerequisites to economic transformation, modernization, and sustained economic growth. Thus, trade reorientation by the CEE nations from the former Council for Mutual Economic Assistance (CMEA) region to the OECD region in general and the EU in particu lar, as well as the volume and nature of inbound FDI are among the most reliable indicators of these countries' abilities to meet the EU admission standards. Trade reorientation by the CEE nations and FDI inflows between 1990 1995 have established a sound basis for effective economic transformation and modernization. It has also increased the ability of selected industries to compete in the EU Single Market. By 1997 the CEE nations were in a good position to generate sustained economic growth and to gradually meet the EU admission requirements.     

Foreign Direct Investment Motives and Marketing Strategies in Central and Eastern Europe

Summary

Foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows are of crucial importance for the process of reintegration of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) in the global marketplace. This paper explores the motives of foreign investors, host governments, and host companies in the FDI process taking place in CEE. The degree to which the motives of the three parties have been achieved is evaluated. The motives of foreign investors, host governments, and host companies are related to the strategic priorities of the FDI companies. The way in which these priorities have been realized is discussed. Recommendations for foreign investors' behavior in the CEE context are presented at the end of the article. The research data come from four countries: Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, and Slovenia.     

International R&D spillovers in emerging markets: The impact of trade and foreign direct investment

While economic theory predicts that growth in developing countries will gain significantly from technology spillovers, the empirical evidence on this issue remains relatively scarce. The present study focuses on a panel of 27 transition and 20 developed countries between 1990 and 2006 and uses the latest developments in panel unit root and cointegration techniques to disentangle the effects of international spillovers via inflows of trade and FDI on total factor productivity (TFP). The findings show that imports remain the main channel of diffusion for both sets of countries, while FDI, although statistically significant, has a lower impact on productivity of the recipients. The domestic R&D capital stock plays an active role in Western Europe while in the Eastern part it is less significant owing to lower levels, transitional disinvestment and relative obsolescence. Human capital affects TFP directly as a factor of production as well as indirectly by enhancing a country's absorptive capacity. In aggregate, the results show that transition countries from Eastern Europe and Central Asia seem to enjoy bigger productivity gains from the international diffusion process than their Western counterparts.     

Asymmetric effects of cultural institutes on trade and foreign direct investment

The purpose of a cultural institute is to improve international relations with other countries by promoting language familiarity and cultural awareness. In addition, cultural institutes can provide additional business opportunities that lead to positive economic side effects such as increases in trade and foreign direct investment (FDI). In this study, gravity models were used to analyse the data for the Goethe Institut (Germany), the Cervantes Institute (Spain) and the Confucius Institute (China) to identify any stylised international patterns of the documented economic effects. The study finds significant positive effects on bilateral trade and FDI outflows for all three programmes, along with two important (i) the effects are stronger for non‐advanced economies and (ii) the effects are substantially larger on FDI than on trade. These results suggest that cultural institutes can be an effective policy tool in promoting FDI outflows, with the strongest effect realised when a home country locates its cultural institutes in host countries with developing economies. Importantly, results also suggest that the Chinese government's approach to extend its soft power through rapid expansion of Confucius Institutes worldwide has not been as successful as the efforts by the German Goethe Institut in increasing trade and FDI.     

我国FDI、对外贸易和经济增长关系动态分析

本文利用1983～2006年的年度经济数据,对我国FDI、对外贸易和经济增长之间的关系进行实证分析。结果表明：我国FDI、对外贸易和经济增长之间已经形成了良好的互动关系,可以相互影响;FDI带动了对外贸易的增长,促进了经济的发展;我国的FDI具有明显的出口导向型特征,FDI对进口的影响迅速。对GDP的影响具有明显的时滞性。     

EU Enlargement and the Portuguese Economy

The main focus of the present paper is on the emerging and likely future trade effects of enlargement. Though our particular concern is with Portugal, we set the scene by comparing the trade structures of the 10 countries of Central and Eastern Europe (i.e. the eight CEE accession states plus Bulgaria and Romania) – including an analysis of the individual cases of the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland – with those of the EU15 as a whole, and with those of the 4 EU cohesion countries. The elimination of trade barriers between incumbents and accession states will have two trade‐related effects on EU incumbents: an increase in bilateral flows with the CEEC and a shift effect as the CEEC displace some incumbent exports to EU markets. The first effect is likely to be strongest for those incumbents for which there is a strong overlap between their export structure and the import structure of the CEEC. Portugal emerges as one of the economies with the least overlap. The displacement effect, we conclude, is likely to be particularly strong in the case of Portugal, given the high degree of similarity between Portuguese exports and those of the CEEC. Portugal appears to be ‘being squeezed from below’ in that, for the majority of its traditional export sectors, the CEEC became progressively more competitive during the second half of the 1990's. Portuguese specialisation was increasingly confined to low‐technology, low‐added‐value sectors with declining demand, as strong FDI inflows to the CEEC led to an increasing preponderance of more dynamic sectors in their export structures. Thus, Portugal is also being squeezed from above. This suggests that there may be substantial industrial disruption, in response to which labour‐market flexibility and dynamic entrepreneurial response is crucial. Intersectoral mobility is generally easier the more highly educated the workforce – an indicator on which Portugal scores poorly. The Portuguese labour market, however, displays a high degree of flexibility, consistent with its long lasting low rate of unemployment. Continued flexibility will help minimise these likely adjustment costs. Besides the trade and industry effects, other topics considered in the paper include the implications of enlargement for Portugal's ability to attract FDI, the likely consequences for Portugal of inward migration from the CEEC to the EU, and the implications of enlargement for Portugal's budgetary relations with the rest of the EU.     

East Asian FDI in Europe and Germany

During the 1980s foreign direct investment (FDI) expanded remarkably. Simultaneously, the regional structure of foreign direct investment changed. This relationship is discernible among industrial countries, as well as between industrial and developing countries. Of particular importance is the interface of foreign trade relations between the “Triad” and the economically dynamic East Asian and Pacific area. This article highlights, in particular, foreign investment coming from Eastern Asia into Europe and Germany.     

Exchange Rate,Exchange Rate Volatility and Foreign Direct Investment

In the light of the importance of foreign direct investment (FDI) for the promotion of economic development, this paper examines the impact of the changes in the real exchange rate and its volatility on FDI. Examining Japan's FDI by industries, we found that the depreciation of the currency of the host country attracted FDI, while the high volatility of the exchange rate discouraged FDI. Our results suggest the need to avoid over‐valuation of the exchange rate and to maintain stable but flexible exchange rate in order to attract FDI.     

Environment and Performance of Family Businesses in the Reforming Polish Economy

Abstract

In the former planned economies, a major result of the economic reform programs has been the resurgence of private sector. As recent research has been unable to explain what leads to substantive growth performance in family businesses in Central and Eastern Europe, this study seeks to increase our understanding of the growth process in small businesses in the region. The paper attempts to identify the types of problems and impediments Polish small family businesses confront. The paper investigates the association of various problems with a firm's stage of growth and development using a sample of one hundred family businesses that operate in the southern region of Poland.     

Foreign direct investment in Central Eastern Europe

Foreign direct investment (FDI) has a significant role to play not only in the process of accelerating privatization, but in the development and strengthening of the emerging market economies of Central Eastern Europe (CEE). The inflow of FDI into Poland up to 1994 was marginal as compared to Hungary and the Czech Republic. The following paper examines the situation in Poland and outlines what lessons can be learnt from the Hungarian experience.     

Megamarketing

Abstract

Recent political, economic, and social changes occurring in Eastern Europe are providing opportunities for Western firms to expand to this region. This study presents evidence on the wealth effects associated with expansion by U.S. firms to Eastern European countries. The results of this study show that differential wealth effects are associated with announcements of different modes of expansion, and with country of expansion. The results suggest that Hungary and Poland are important for expansion to Eastern Europe, and that joint ventures should be the preferred mode of expansion for U.S. firms seeking to expand to Eastern Europe. The results also suggest that investors are able to discern between different levels of country risk.     

Internationalization of Japanese Multinational Corporations in Central and Eastern Europe

Abstract

The paper focuses on the internationalization activities of Japanese MNCs in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) analyzing data on national level considering Japan's modes of market entry in the CEE region and some of the countries in it. Major trends and the development of Japanese internationalization in CEE are presented. Individual mini case studies contribute to the analysis using the experience of several major Japanese MNCs that have invested in the region. The goal of the paper is to uncover the specifics of the internationalization process of Japanese corporations in the CEE region. Main characteristics of the penetration of Japanese MNCs in CEE are unveiled and discussed in the concluding part of the paper. The management implications and conclusions from the study are discussed further in the final part of the paper.     

Regional development of German foreign trade in the 1990s

With a double-digit growth rate, Germany's export sector was again very successful last year. While the industrialised countries continue to be Germany's main trading partners, growth in the past few years has been stimulated by trade with the booming regions of Southeast Asia and Central and Eastern Europe as well as with Central and South America. The current crisis in Southeast Asia has led to an abrupt slowdown in the region's economic development. What will be the consequences for global trade in general and for German foreign trade in particular?     

The Enlarged EU and Russia-What Do Visegrad-Countries Contribute to EU-Russian Economic Relationship?

Abstract

The European Union's economic strategy on Russia had not been clearly and consistently worked out by the time of the 2004 May enlargement; major questions still needed to be answered. Since new member-states had not been really involved into the process of shaping EU policy toward its ‘strategic partner’, their approaches should be also included into the EU Russia-policy in the future. Though enlargement certainly brings about growing importance and new perspectives into the EU-Russia dialog, it will create new problems or deepen some old ones as well.

Beside Baltic-states, that have their special interests and attitudes-Visegrad-countries (Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and to a less degree the Czech Republic) are the most interested new-members in this dialog. They may turn to be either the most active ones in taking part of shaping EU-Russian economic and political dialog from among the 10 newcomers or the most influential ones in doing so. The role of Poland in this process is undoubtedly unique.

Notwithstanding the fact that characteristics of bilateral economic relations (Polish-Russian, Hungarian-Russian, etc.) are common to a great extent, it seems to be unlikely that these countries will intend or will be able to cooperate on this issue. The reasons for potential and already sensible divergence in their attitudes toward Russiacontrary to their more or less similar approaches regarding Ukraineare rooted more in politics then in different economic interests. Analysing figures concerning bilateral trade and investment flows indicates these common features. Energy is in the focus of Russian-Visegrad4 economic relations.     

FDI、对外贸易与经济增长的关系——基于Granger检验及西部面板数据（1998-2005）的研究

伴随全球一体化进程加快和我国经济的发展,经济增长、对外贸易与FDI的关系日益密切。本文通过Granger因果关系检验分析了我国经济增长、对外贸易和FDI的因果关系,并通过对中国西部10省1998～2005年面板数据分析,对三者的关系进行了进一步探讨。