The Enlarged European Union and Its Eastern Neighborhood

Abstract

This paper deals with the economic relations between Russia, Ukraine and the enlarged European Union. We start with some essential characteristics regarding the huge gaps in the size and trade structures of these three economic entities, before briefly outlining the development of their institutional relations. We discuss the impacts of EU enlargement on Russia and Ukraine, as well as the prospects for Russia—Ukraine relations. Given all the complexities of these relations, the mutual interdependence and the uncertainties concerning the future, we conclude that rather than devising grand new schemes, Russia, Ukraine and the EU should focus on practical steps that would facilitate closer cooperation in areas such as the development of border regions, the implementation of a free trade area and the support of economic reforms. Regarding Ukraine, whose official aspirations of EU membership seem highly unrealistic at least in the medium term and whose already high economic dependency on Russia is becoming even more pronounced, the policy challenges will be formidable. Whether Ukraine will succeed in a fine-tuned balancing act to establish closer relations with both the enlarged EU and Russia simultaneously, remains to be seen. Concerning economics, Ukraine's already intense eastward integration may even deependespite Ukraine possibly getting more hearing in the EU at the insistence of some new member states.     

Enlargement and the EU budget: The battles ahead

The coming enlargement of the EU is unprecedented as regards both the number of acceding countries and the wealth differentials existing between the Union's current members and the candidates. The contributors to this forum present their views on how the complex financial issues involved can be solved in a way that will enable the enlarging Union to continue to function while ensuring a fair distribution of the costs and benefits of enlargement. This article is part of the project “Membership of Central and Eastern European Countries in the EU” funded by the Otto Wolff-Stiftung, Cologne.     

Enlargement and the Textiles,Clothing and Footwear Industry

The textiles, clothing and footwear (TCF) industry is a labour intensive industry, strongly determined by globalization and easy relocation to low‐cost countries. Hence also in the European Union this industry is relatively more important in the low‐wage regions of the EU‐Southern periphery. With the envisaged enlargement, however, these countries fear a further shift of the sector to Central and Eastern Europe as these countries still have a comparative advantage in terms of low labour costs. The present article investigates whether this fear is justified, looking at three main aspects: first at the position and history of the TCF sector in the European Union and its role in the EU periphery, second at the sector in the Central and Eastern accession countries, and third at gobalization issues. The second aspect is dealt with in great detail, as development trends in the Central and East European countries are important and telling. Much has happened during the 15‐year (and more) period between the collapse of communism and the EU membership in this region, most important the integration to the EU by the means of trade, in particular outward processing trade. These developments mainly seem to determine future trends in an enlarged Europe. Overall however, future prospects have to be seen in a global context, strongly influencing the sector via changes in global trade policies.     

Evaluation of the Information and Communications Infrastructures of Bulgaria and Romania Following Their Accession to the EU

ABSTRACT

The European Union (EU) completed a massive expansion in 2004. On January 1, 2007 Bulgaria and Romania were admitted into the union. EU accession requires the fulfillment of a list of requirements relating to judicial, economic, information and social infrastructures. This article examines Bulgaria's and Romania's National Information Infrastructures (NII) analyzing traditional, high technology and competitive structures. Comparisons are made to the original 15 European Union member countries' (EU15) NII structures and to those ten countries which entered in 2004 (EU10). Results of the analysis indicate that Bulgaria and Romania compare favorably on traditional measures, though high technology infrastructures lag considerably in some instances, and will be costly to build well beyond available EU funding sources. The gap will provide opportunities for western high technology firms which should be favorably embraced by the two resource strapped governments.     

Is the EU's labour market threatened by a wave of immigration?

As the accession negotiations continue between the European Union and the Central and Eastern European Countries, Germany in particular fears that granting free movement of labour to these countries might generate a wave of new entrants that could overwhelm its labour market. The following article uses migration determinants and draws on previous experience of integrating countries into the EU in an attempt to reach conclusions about migration patterns that may result from the forthcoming eastward enlargement.     

Measuring financial market integration in the European Union: EU15 vs. New Member States

This paper quantifies financial market integration in the European Union, using a large array of credit and bond market indicators, stock market indicators, as well as indicators based on household and firm decisions. It focuses on comparing the evolution of the European Union before the Eastern enlargement (EU15) with that of the 12 New Member States (NMS) that joined after 2000. It documents improvements in the integration of the credit and bond markets as well as stock markets for both groups within the EU27, the heightened heterogeneity brought about by the NMS, but also a reversal of the integration process over the recent years (corresponding to the financial crisis), divergence disrupting both the EU15 core and the NMS. For all the decades of achievements within both the EU15 and NMS groups in terms of credit and stock market integration, the ultimate goals of financial market integration, perfect capital mobility and full international risk sharing remain out of reach.     

Accession of the Czech Republic,Hungary and Poland to the European Union: Impacts on Agricultural Markets

We analyse the consequences on agricultural markets of enlargement of the European Union (EU) to include the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland. We produce a market outlook up to 2010 for two enlargement scenarios assuming different policy restrictions on grain and dairy production in the acceding countries. Accession of the three Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) leads to a permanent but moderate decrease in EU prices for most commodities. In the three acceding CEECs, domestic prices increase drastically, final consumption of agricultural products decreases in most instances, while production increases. Higher domestic prices in the CEECs reduce exports of most commodities to non‐union countries. Consequently, excess supplies are placed in stocks or exported to the original 15 member countries. Supply management mechanisms in the dairy and grain sectors would reduce the build‐up of surpluses in the new member states, but limit their ability to take advantage of the expanded market. Accession of the three CEECs would increase the CAP budget over its proposed maximum if area payments are extended to incoming crop producers.     

The Enlarged EU and Russia-What Do Visegrad-Countries Contribute to EU-Russian Economic Relationship?

Abstract

The European Union's economic strategy on Russia had not been clearly and consistently worked out by the time of the 2004 May enlargement; major questions still needed to be answered. Since new member-states had not been really involved into the process of shaping EU policy toward its ‘strategic partner’, their approaches should be also included into the EU Russia-policy in the future. Though enlargement certainly brings about growing importance and new perspectives into the EU-Russia dialog, it will create new problems or deepen some old ones as well.

Beside Baltic-states, that have their special interests and attitudes-Visegrad-countries (Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and to a less degree the Czech Republic) are the most interested new-members in this dialog. They may turn to be either the most active ones in taking part of shaping EU-Russian economic and political dialog from among the 10 newcomers or the most influential ones in doing so. The role of Poland in this process is undoubtedly unique.

Notwithstanding the fact that characteristics of bilateral economic relations (Polish-Russian, Hungarian-Russian, etc.) are common to a great extent, it seems to be unlikely that these countries will intend or will be able to cooperate on this issue. The reasons for potential and already sensible divergence in their attitudes toward Russiacontrary to their more or less similar approaches regarding Ukraineare rooted more in politics then in different economic interests. Analysing figures concerning bilateral trade and investment flows indicates these common features. Energy is in the focus of Russian-Visegrad4 economic relations.     

German Investment in Ireland and in the Central and East European Countries

The accession of Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) to the EU is expected by many to lead to the diversion of foreign direct investment towards the CEECs and away from other EU countries. The following paper focuses on the investigation of the internationalisation strategies and location choices of German multinational corporations (MNCs) in manufacturing against the background of growing regional economic integration, and particularly the fifth EU enlargement. It draws on the findings of a case study and interview results covering three German MNCs and their location choices for investment in both Ireland and the new EU member countries from Eastern Europe. This research project has been co-funded by the RIA in Dublin and DAAD. A first version of this work was presented at the September 2005 Irish Academy of Management Annual Conference in Galway.     

Trade and migration flows between some CEE countries and the UK

The recent enlargement of the European Union (EU) has enhanced interest in the causes and also the consequences of migration between Central and Eastern European (CEE) and Western European countries. This paper considers the possibility that some of these consequences make themselves felt in the trade flows between migrants' countries of origin and destination. Using a panel of data covering a number of CEE countries between 1996 and 2003, we employ an augmented gravity model to examine the effects of immigration from these transition countries on their bilateral trade flows with the UK. We pay attention to a number of issues that have been raised within the literature on gravity models. We find evidence that migration positively enhances the bilateral exports of the migrants' home country; however, there is less (but some) evidence that the imports from their destination country are also enhanced.     

EU accession: Negotiating “environmental dumping”?

“Environmental dumping” is a concern frequently raised in discussions on the potential risks involved in the eastern enlargement of the European Union¹ (EU).² There is a general concern that the Central and Eastern European accession countries may be neither willing nor able to fully apply the EU’s environmental acquis communautaire, the body of Community environmental legislation, once they have joined the EU. As a result, these countries would benefit from a competitive advantage when selling their goods on the Internal Market. This article asks whether, and in which specific cases, such concerns may be justified.     

Emigration and wages: The EU enlargement experiment

The enlargement of the European Union provides a unique opportunity to study the impact of the lifting of migration restrictions on the migrant sending countries. With EU enlargement in 2004, 1.2 million workers from Eastern Europe emigrated to the UK and Ireland. I use this emigration wave to show that emigration significantly changed the wage distribution in the sending country, in particular between young and old workers. Using a novel dataset from Lithuania, the UK and Ireland for the calibration of a structural model of labor demand, I find that over the period of five years emigration increased the wages of young workers by 6%, while it had no effect on the wages of old workers. Contrary to the immigration literature, there is no significant effect of emigration on the wage distribution between high-skilled and low-skilled workers.     

中国与欧盟农产品产业内贸易实证分析

基于产业内贸易理论,采用格鲁贝尔—洛伊德指数、布吕哈特边际产业内贸易指数、汤姆&麦克杜威尔水平和垂直产业内贸易指数,本文综合评估了1996年以来中国与欧盟15国农产品产业内贸易水平及结构特征。实证分析结果显示:中国与欧盟整体农产品产业内贸易水平较高,且以技术差异为特征的垂直型产业内贸易为主;双方四大类农产品产业内贸易水平呈上升趋势。     

欧盟在华直接投资对中国与欧盟贸易的影响

本文运用面板数据的方法,研究了欧盟在华直接投资对中国与欧盟贸易的影响,结论表明,欧盟在华直接投资促进了中国对欧盟各成员国的进出口贸易,但影响较小,影响中、欧贸易的主要因素是中国和欧盟各成员国的经济实力(GDP)。这表明欧盟在华投资企业的市场战略主要是针对中国广阔的国内市场的。文章最后部分对如何促进欧盟对华直接投资和扩大中、欧贸易提出了建议。     

Financial services spillover effects on informal economic activity: evidence from a panel of 20 European countries

ABSTRACT

This study aims to investigate the spillover effects of the financial services sector development on the size of informal economic activity in the case of the European Union (EU) countries. The results from panel data analysis show that there exists an inverted U-shaped relationship between financial services and informal economic activity in the EU; that is, at the initial levels of the financial development, the reaction of informal economic activity is positive while it becomes negative at the further stages of the financial development in the EU. Thus, this study finds that financial services sector is a major contributor to changes in the volume of informal economic activity in the EU countries.     

EU enlargement and labour markets in the CEECs

The implications for labour markets are central to any political and economic evaluation of EU Eastern enlargement. The resulting new levels of unemployment and of wages will have direct effects on social welfare in the acceding countries as well as in the present member states of the EU. Furthermore, employment and wages are substantial factors of political stability in the central and eastern European countries (CEECs). The following paper analyses the present situation on the labour markets in the CEECs and discusses the effects of their reintegration into the Western European system and the resulting implications for labour market and wage policy institutions. Helpful comments by participants of the 2nd convention of the CEEISA “Globalisation of International Relations—Implications for Central and Eastern European Countries”, Warsaw, 15–17 June 2000, and of the 4th International IMAD Conference “Institutions in Transition”, Portoroz (Slovenia), 23–24 June 2000, are gratefully acknowledged.     

The economics of enlarging the European Union: Policy reform versus transfers

While the European Union will hardly be in a position to receive new members without extensive policy and financial reform, the discussion so far has exaggerated the link between reform and enlargement. It has also tended to neglect the economic benefits to be expected from integrating the CEECs into the EU and has been dominated by concerns about intra-EU transfers. In an attempt to placate those member states which have complained that they pay too much, recent proposals could give rise to more inefficiencies and disparities within the Union. The author is grateful to Beuter, Frank Bollen, Veerle Deekmyn and Les Metealfe for their comments on a previous draft. The author alone is responsible for the views expressed in this paper.     

New risks ahead: The eastward enlargement of the Eurozone

The eastward enlargement of the eurozone will follow hot on the heels of the eastward enlargement of the EU. The membership of the accession countries in the eurozone, however, may cause additional risks both for these countries and for the EMU itself. The following paper gives an overview of how policies and markets will be affected and discusses, in the light of the risks involved, whether the Maastricht criteria should be revised to cater for the special needs of the accession countries. Professor Bolle and his team coordinate the research programme “EZONEPLUS—The Eastward Enlargement of the Eurozone”, supported by the European Union. The project includes research institutions from Estonia, Finland, Italy, Poland, Portugal and Slovenia.     

Productivity,Employment and Growth in European Integration

We compare the evolution of key macroeconomic indices for the European Union (EU), viewed as a unified economy, with that of the USA and Japan for the period 1950–95, report the process of convergence in the EU, and analyze the effect of its potential enlargement through the accession of 10 Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC) that are in active negotiation for EU membership. The EU has followed a path of rising labor productivity, declining capital productivity and rising capital intensity typical of advanced capitalist economies. Its productivities in the 1990s lie between those of the USA and Japan. There is evidence of convergence of EU-15 relative labor productivity and capital intensity levels to those of the USA. Relative real wages also seem to be converging. Profit rates in all three economies fell, most rapidly before 1975. There is a general pattern of convergence in the EU members in the evolution of labor productivity, capital productivity, real wage, gross profit rate, investment per worker, consumption per worker and capital intensity. The evidence for a specific membership effect on convergence is weak. The CEEC have much lower relative labor and capital productivity than any other countries that have entered the EU. The process of development in the CEEC will have to follow an atypical path of increasing or constant capital productivity and rising labor productivity in order to converge to EU norms. EU membership might have a positive impact on the prospective economic growth in the CEEC in these respects, as the vehicle for the transmission of critical changes in technology and productive organization.