金融与增长：动荡条件下的政策选择

编者按:2001年5月31日,世界银行和国务院体改办在北京联合发布了题为"金融与增长:动荡条件下的政策选择"的世行最新金融研究报告.研究报告的两位作者卡普里奥先生和赫诺汉先生,是世行研究金融政策与经济发展关系方面享有盛名的金融专家.两位专家通过大量的实证分析,特别是通过对亚洲金融危机和新兴市场国家金融体制的深刻分析,指出了由政府部门直接提供金融服务可能带来的种种问题,提出了金融改革的方向和原则,阐明了金融服务市场化的必要性和完善监管体系的重要性,论述了建立金融安全网、防范金融风险的原则和方法,分析了金融开放的意义与时机选择.本文简要介绍了世行报告的基本观点及两位作者对中国金融政策的建议,仅供参考.     

投资增长分析及政策选择

文章分析了目前投资过度增长的内在扩张机制,指出不宜以传统的行政命令手段为经济降温,因为这样会对市场经济的自我调节功能造成破坏。应该以通过改变国债投资方向、规范地方政府投资、建立国有企业的投资预算约束等方式来建立与完善市场经济的各个微观要素,使经济能够通过市场的自我调节以实现发展。     

Concentration and Inefficiency in the Defense Sector: Policy Options

This article, which is a part of a larger comprehensive study of the effects of employee ownership and worker participation on productivity in the United States, focuses on and documents the lack of worker participation in employee-owned firms [Rooney 1987]. It is estimated that more than 7,000 U.S. firms covering some 10 million employees have some degree of employee ownership [Rosen, Klein and Young 1986, p. 15]. By employee ownership, we simply mean that most of the employees own some shares of stock in the company in which they work. While most employee-owned firms have less than a majority ownership stake, several hundred U.S. firms are majority emp10yeeowned, and are the target of this study.     

公用事业民营化改革:理论基础与政策选择

公用事业的民营化改革是中国经济发展与改革的必然趋势。本文论述了公用事业民营化的理论基础，分析了民营化改革是公用事业治理方式变革的一种方式；实证描述了中国公用事业民营化的体制背景和基本形式，分析了中国公用事业民营化改革存在的主要问题，并研究设计了公用事业民营化过程中的政府规制政策。     

外来入侵物种的法律规制

外来物种入侵已经成为世界各国面临的严峻问题,外来入侵物种对生物多样性、社会经济以及人类健康造成了严重的危害,国际上对建立预防和控制外来入侵物种的法律制度取得了许多成功的经验。我们应当在借鉴这些经验的基础上,以人与自然和谐发展的环境观和可持续发展观为指导,通过完善环境风险评估、行政许可、名录、检验检疫以及法律责任追究制度来加强外来入侵物种的法律规制。     

Reconciling Economic Growth and Carbon Mitigation: Challenges and Policy Options in China

As the biggest carbon emitter in the world, China is facing tremendous pressure domestically and internationally. To promote the international efforts to tackle climate change, the Chinese government announced its 2020 carbon intensity target and is actively taking part in the international climate negotiations. In this paper, we review some of the climate burden-sharing proposals raised by Chinese scholars to shed some light on China's perspective on the post-Kyoto climate architecture. Then we summarize China's current pollution abatement policies and measures, and analyze some potential policy instruments for China to reconcile its future economic growth and carbon mitigation, as well as some practical design and enforcement issues to be considered for the near term.     

广东中小企业年金制度设计与政策选择

企业年金作为一种延期支付的工资,可起到维系人才、减缓企业劳动力流动的“金手铐”作用;中小企业为了能赢得人才,更是不能忽视联合年金计划这个“HR法宝”。广东中小企业数量众多,中小企业建立企业年金制度有利于促进中小企业的健康发展,提升竞争力,有利于完善我省多支柱的养老保障体系,本文对我省中小企业建立企业年金制度进行了探讨,希望能有助于我省中小企业建立和完善企业年金制度。     

中国零售业存在的问题及其政策选择

中国零售业存在着诸多问题,如过度竞争,业态结构不合理,业态区域结构失衡及过度开放等。为进一步优化零售产业的组织结构,中国应制定反垄断政策,加大力度实行零售业进入管制政策,制定零售业并购、联合的政策。制定零售业国际化经营政策,鼓励开拓农村市场等。     

Financial System Leverage and the Shortage of Safe Assets: Exploring the Policy Options

In this article, we provide a simple supply and demand framework in which the build‐up of an excessive level of leverage can result in a shortage of safe assets. On the basis of this, we discuss various policy options. First, we address the question of what policy‐makers should do if shortages of safe assets arise. Second, we discuss what has to be done to prevent potential shortages of safe assets. Our main finding is that a smoother leverage cycle – which, in particular, implies less leverage in booms – is a major condition for preventing shortages of safe assets.     

外来物种入侵的刑事控制模式

物种入侵正日益成为危害人类生命健康、生态环境安全的又一风险因素;对物种入侵行为的刑法规制的犯罪构成模式设计是危险犯与实害犯并用;建立在统计科学概率论基础上的疫学因果关系是破解生态犯罪刑法因果关系的合理选择.     

加拿大实现碳中和的政策部署与路径

本文根据加拿大联邦政府发布的增强版气候计划,阐述了加拿大实现碳中和的有关政策部署和路径。在围绕碳中和的新一轮全球博弈中,加拿大将减排重点放在能够显著减排的关键领域,给予有利政策和资金支持,并且将政府引导与碳定价机制相结合,从而激励相关行业企业不断革新技术,以技术创新带动绿色低碳产业的发展,进而推动加拿大在后疫情时代实现经济复苏。     

Evaluation of Policy Options to Encourage Welfare to Work

This article compares five alternative policy options with the January 2006 tax and social security system. Each option is designed to cost a similar amount of approximately $5 billion per year to the government at the observed level of labour supply. The five options include reducing the lowest income tax rate, increasing the tax‐free threshold, increasing the low income tax offset, decreasing all taper rates on own and partner's incomes for a number of allowances, and introducing an earned income tax credit. The criteria for comparison are the labour supply responses, the expected budgetary cost to the government after taking into account labour supply responses, the number of winners and losers from the policy change, the effects on the distribution of effective marginal tax rates, and the effects on the number of jobless households. From the results, it is clear that the option to reduce taper rates is dominated by the other options on all criteria. The other four options each have their advantages and disadvantages; no option scores best on all criteria.     

滞胀风险下的宏观经济调整与货币政策选择

随着金融危机向实体经济转移和扩散,我国经济增长出现下滑,已远低于潜在增长率;而由宽松货币政策所导致的广义货币供应量在不断增加,通货膨胀压力正逐步显现。在外需短期无法恢复、内需相对不足的情况下,滞胀的风险在逐步加大。VEC模型结果表明:货币流通速度、广义货币供应量增长速度共同决定我国通货膨胀率。当经济景气程度上升、货币流通速度加快时,货币供应量增长过快会引发通货膨胀。因此,现阶段应在有效监控经济景气程度和货币流通速度的基础上,对宏观经济政策进行微调,以便提高政策搭配效果,有效化解风险。     

The Macroeconomics of Financial Crises: How Risk Premiums and Liquidity Traps Affect Policy Options

The paper offers an overview of what structural models of the IS-LM and Mundell-Fleming variety can tell about the macroeconomics of economic crises. In addition to demonstrating how the emergence of risk premiums in money and capital markets can generate liquidity traps at positive interest rates and may drive economies into recessions, it shows the following: (1) Fiscal policy works even in a small, open economy under flexible exchange rates when the country is stuck in a liquidity trap; (2) Near the fringe of liquidity traps, there may be perfect traps, in which neither monetary nor fiscal policy works when used in isolation but policy coordination is called for; and (3) Massive financial crises in the domestic money market may even destabilize the economy.     

Disguised Protectionism, Global Trade Rules and Alien Invasive Species

Current international law strongly favors policies designed to make imports safer (e.g., in terms of invasive species) over policies explicitly designed to discourage imports. We show that this preference may be counterproductive. A externality in trade is incorporated into a political-economy model of policy formation. Nations can address the externality by inspecting cargo and imposing a fine on contaminated imports. We compare the equilibrium when inspection is the only policy option relative to the equilibrium that emerging when nations may also manipulate the tariff. Ruling out the tariff causes socially excessive stringency in general, social welfare losses if domestic supply is highly inelastic, and in some circumstances an increase in the real tariff, measured as the difference between world and domestic prices.     

中国县乡财政收入能力提升的政策选择

本文基于调查研究,具体探讨了我国县乡财政收入的现状与原因,提出了增强县乡财政收入能力的制度设计、资金管理、最低财力保障等方面的措施.     

Spatial and Temporal Efficiency in Climate Policy: Applications of FUND

FUND is an integrated assessment model of the interactions between climate and economy. Nine world regions emit greenhouse gases, and suffer damages from climate change. A number of greenhouse gas emission reduction policies are compared, including optimal and cost-effective strategies, strategies with early and late abatement, and strategies with and without international co-operation. The analyses confirm that co-operation matters, resulting in substantially lower costs or higher welfare. The real commitments of policy targets based on an absolute level (e.g., 1990 emissions) are hard to estimate because of the uncertainties in the baseline. Postponing action conflicts with minimising costs and maximising welfare, but so does sharp emission reduction at the short-term as proposed in the Kyoto Protocol.