THE CYCLICALITY OF SEPARATION AND JOB FINDING RATES*

This article uses CPS gross flow data to analyze the business cycle dynamics of separation and job finding rates and quantify their contributions to overall unemployment variability. Cyclical changes in the separation rate are negatively correlated with changes in productivity and move contemporaneously with them, whereas the job finding rate is positively correlated with and tends to lag productivity. Contemporaneous fluctuations in the separation rate explain between 40 and 50% of fluctuations in unemployment, depending on how the data are detrended. This figure becomes larger when dynamic interactions between the separation and job finding rates are considered.     

REACHING THE RURAL POOR THROUGH AGRICULTURAL COOPERATIVES IN MONGOLIA

This paper focuses on the cooperative sector in central Mongolia. Its aim is to provide new insights into the role and importance of cooperatives among poor rural populations. We analyse cooperatives’ inclusiveness of smaller herders and farmers and cooperatives’ governance structures. The research is based on data collected in selected provinces of the central Töv region. The data were collected for three distinctive target groups – cooperative board members, cooperative members and non‐members. We found that the cooperative sector in Mongolia is strongly affected by the governmental policy regarding wool subsidies, which provides subsidies only to cooperative members and has consequently caused rapid growth in the number of new, free‐riding cooperative members and led to very low levels of members’ self‐identification with their cooperatives. This policy also affects the inner organizational structures of cooperatives. Further, we found indications that poorer farmers tend not to be members of cooperatives and that the overall benefits for non‐members and the general community arising from local cooperatives are rather low.     

TRUE HOUSEHOLD EQUIVALENCE SCALES AND CHARACTERISTICS OF THE POOR IN THE UNITED STATES

In this paper we deal with the question of which measures of economic well-being are adequate to identify those groups of households in the U.S. whose economic conditions justify public concern and assistance. We derive a utility based measure of economic well-being from the estimation of a complete set of consumer demand equations. The demand system is Lluch's Extended Linear Expenditure System (Lluch, 1973). Household characteristics are incorporated using the scaling method proposed by Barten (1966). Using the welfare indicator derived, we study the composition of the poorest part of the population, using data from the 1972–73 Consumer Expenditure Survey. We compare our results with those obtained using various other welfare indicators, including the official U.S. poverty line. We show that using different family composition adjustments significantly and systematically affects just who are considered to be at the bottom of the welfare distribution. We finally suggest that program designers therefore can improve their target efficiency by carefully selecting from among the acceptable indices of welfare when defining program eligibility.     

我国封闭式基金折价原因探析

噪声交易理论较好地解释了我国封闭式基金的折价交易问题。但是,实证结果表明,还存在着其他因素影响着基金的折价。由于我国证券市场处在发展阶段,基金管理者独立性差,持股集中、持股重叠、内幕交易现象很多,基金管理中存在着道德风险,这是造成我国封闭式基金大幅折价的重要原因。     

论我国贫富差距问题

分析一国贫富差距的常用标准是基尼系数的大小,国际上将基尼系数值的合理区间定为0.2—0.4。在我国国内,有人提出根据我国特殊国情,可以将此值的上限确定为何0.48,事实上也基本上是按0.45的标准进行操作的。然而,在目前,运用这一指导思想将会是十分不利的。本文在就目前贫富差距的现状进行分析的基础上,提出了几点建议。     

THE INEQUALITY OF WEALTH I N BRITAIN'S NORTH AMERICAN COLONIES: THE IMPORTANCE OF THE RELATIVELY POOR

This paper presents original estimates of the distribution of personal wealth in Nova Scotia, Canada in 1871 using the estate multiplier technique and discusses the sensitivity of estimates of the wealth distribution to the assumed wealth holdings of non-probated decedents. We examine, in particular, the implications of assuming: (1) that non-probated decedents had zero wealth, (2) that the wealth distribution was quasi-Paretian (with parameters that can be estimated from the distribution of wealth of probated decedents) or (3) that the wealth distribution had the form assumed by A. H. Jones in her analysis of wealth inequality in the Thirteen Colonies in 1774. We conclude that it is unlikely that large estates escaped the probate process in Nova Scotia, but it is also unlikely that all non-probated decedents had equal wealth-thus our "best guess" is that the wealth distribution of non-probated decedents was quasi-Paretian. However, a methodology similar to Jones' would have implied considerably less measured inequality in the wealth distribution and greater average wealth in 1871– and would therefore have altered our perception of long term trends in the distribution of wealth and in the rate of accumulation of wealth. The measurement of wealth inequality in a society with a significant slave population, such as the thirteen colonies in 1774, is also highly sensitive to the treatment of slavery. Our preferred estimates of wealth inequality in Nova Scotia in 1871 and in the Thirteen Colonies in 1774 indicate a much higher inequality in the distribution of personal wealth than exists today.     

我国农村贫困区域及农村人口转移问题研究

从居民个体与区域政府角度分析了"农村贫困区域"问题的表现特征,并认为区域政府在为城乡提供公共物品方面的缺乏是"农村贫困区域"的重要特征.从克服地理障碍的发展成本、距离成本、市场条件、发展机会及交换权利短缺,体制与制度力量空间潜力狭小,人口迁移存在障碍等方而分析了"农村贫困区域"形成的内在机制.最后提出了解决问题的具体措施,并认为促进农村人口城市化转移才是解决农村贫困区域问题的根本.     

POOR AND SICK: ESTIMATING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN HOUSEHOLD INCOME AND HEALTH

This study evaluates the effect of the individual's household income on their health at the later stages of working life. A structural equation model is utilized in order to derive a composite and continuous index of the latent health status from qualitative health status indicators. The endogenous relationship between health status and household income status is taken into account by using IV estimators. The findings reveal a significant effect of individual household income on health before and after endogeneity is taken into account as well as a host of other factors known to influence health, including hereditary factors and the individual's locus of control. Importantly, it is also shown that the childhood socioeconomic position of the individual has long lasting effects on health as it appears to play a significant role in determining health during the later stages of working life.     

IDENTIFYING THE POOR: POVERTY MEASUREMENT FOR THE U.S. FROM 1996 TO 2005

The poverty measure presented compares spending needs to resources available to meet those needs. The analysis is for the U.S.; however, lessons from other countries regarding desirable properties of a poverty measure are considered. A primary focus is internal consistency between thresholds and resources. This study is among the first for the U.S. to describe an internally consistent poverty measure, drawing from recommendations of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences (NAS). Thresholds reflect spending needs as “outflows.” Resources measure “inflows” available to meet spending needs. The U.S. Consumer Expenditure Survey is used for thresholds, and the Current Population Survey is the basis for resources. Trends are reported with comparisons to the official and a relative measure. An important finding is that increases in expenditures for shelter, captured in the NAS thresholds, suggest a greater increase in the number of families not able to meet basic needs than is reflected by official poverty statistics over this time period.     

DETERMINANTS OF SCHOOL ENROLLMENT AND PERFORMANCE IN BULGARIA: THE ROLE OF INCOME AMONG THE POOR AND RICH

Where credit markers are incomplete, households must finance educational investments out of past savings or current earnings. Poor households, with low savings and low current income, may accordingly be highly constrained in their educational choices, whereas richer households are not. The commonly used log-expenditures specification of the relationship of income to school enrollment may therefore be imprecise. Using data from the 1995 Bulgarian Integrated Household Survey, this analysis shows that the roughly 50% of Bulgarian households with expenditures per adult-equivalent of less than 5,000 Leva (1995 prices) are financially constrained in their educational choices, while richer households are not.     

THE ROLE OF MODEL SPECIFICATION IN FINDING THE INFLUENCE OF OWNERSHIP AND REGULATORY REGIME ON UTILITY COST: THE CASE OF SWEDISH ELECTRICITY DISTRIBUTION

The lack of consensus on how utility cost is affected by variation in ownership and regulatory regime has been attributed to sector‐specific conditions and interacting observed heterogeneous factors. This study investigates a further source of ambiguous outcomes as it evaluates different econometric specifications related to variations in utility objective/the design of regulatory regime and influences from unknown/uncertain heterogeneous factors. Consistent with theoretical predictions, 7 years of data from the Swedish electricity distribution sector reveal that private ownership and stronger financial incentives are associated with lower costs. It is also demonstrated that inappropriate model specifications can produce arbitrary conclusions. (JEL D24, K23, L51, L94)     

致贫的制度经济学研究:制度成本与制度收益的不对称性分析

本文通过构建多元利益结构下的政策歧视模型,指出制度成本与制度收益的不对称关系具有内生性,这是致贫制度的核心特征。本文进一步指出,由于制度成本的层层转嫁,主导者无约束地追求收益最大化,不仅将导致当代社会贫富分化加剧和社会动荡,还将招致自然生态和资源、环境的严重负反馈,给人类自身的可持续性带来严峻挑战。     

TECHNOLOGY GAPS BETWEEN RICH AND POOR COUNTRIES*

We have started by asking the question: why are there international income inequalities? We have ascribed them to differences in applied productive knowledge. This raised the question: why can productive knowledge be communicated and diffused within an advanced nation but not between nations or within underdeveloped nations? What are the obstacles to the international diffusion of benefits? We have found these in two areas: obstacles to communication and absence of suitable technologies. The obstacles to communication can again be divided into those due to costs of transfer and those due to intentional restrictions or the exercise of monopoly power. But even perfect communication would not meet the need for quite different technologies from those developed in high-income countries. Measures that reduce the Communications Gap might make the Suitability Gap wider and vice versa, but a set of integrated actions attacking both gaps has a chance of success. Technical knowledge cannot be marketed like other products or factors because it possesses peculiar features: (i) indivisibility, (ii) inappropriatability, (iii) embodiment in other factors, (iv) uncertainty and (v) impossibility to know its full value until bought. Policies for closing the two gaps are interdependent, so that the pursuit of any one in isolation might make matters worse. What is needed is a set of integrated actions, attacking both the Communications Gap and the Suitability Gap. Transfer must be supplemented by indigenous capability; adaptation by invention and innovation.     

AN EMPIRICAL EXAMINATION OF THE SOURCES OF CHANGES OVER TIME IN THE JOB FINDING RATE USING RESERVATION WAGES AND REJECTED WAGE OFFERS*

We consider a structural dynamic job search model where nonstationarity originates from the change over time in the benefit level, the job offer arrival rate, and the wage offer distribution. The model is estimated on the French sample of the ECHP taking advantage of direct observation of reservation wages, rejected job offers, and associated rejected wages. We find that the offered wages deteriorate rapidly (13.8% over six months, 19.2% over one year, and 30% over two years) and that changes in the wage offer distribution are the unique source of negative duration dependence in the hazard.     

CANADA: RICH BY NATURE, POOR BY POLICY

This paper examines the political economy of Canada, particularly the question of why Canada's economic performance has so persistently lagged behind that of the United States. It argues that this shortfall cannot be traced to values and choices arising out of a unique Canadian "political culture," as is conventionally assumed, but instead is the consequence of poorly designed institutions. These institutions directly benefit powerful interest groups in Canada and are thus explicable in Public Choice terms. Nevertheless, they are under strain as the underlying social reality of Canada cannot be suppressed indefinitely. One symptom of this is the bilateral free trade agreement recently negotiated between Ottawa and Washington, D.C.     

ON TRENDS IN THE GAP BETWEEN RICH AND POOR IN LESS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES: WHY WE KNOW SO LITTLE

This paper considers the problems involved in measuring trends over time in inequality in less developed countries. After considering some of the conceptual problems involved in choosing a measure of economic welfare, the period it should cover, and the statistical units to which it should be applied, the paper goes on to draw up a list of minimum data requirements for reaching reliable conclusions about such trends. It concludes that in many countries the available information falls well short of the minimum list, and it explores various sources of indirect evidence on trends in distribution. The central argument is that the available data permit no easy tests for trends in the level of economic inequality in less developed countries. At present, the best bet is to complement evidence on income distribution with available data on consumption distribution and on wage trends and production aggregates by occupational and sectoral groups. Inconsistencies will highlight problem areas, and their reconciliation should provide a firmer foundation on which to draw conclusions about distributional trends.     

紧缩性货币政策应对当前通货膨胀的低效性

近期我国出现了居民消费物价指数快速上涨的现象,通货膨胀压力逐步显现,货币当局采取了一系列紧缩性货币政策。然而当前通货膨胀的重要特征是结构性价格调整,其深层次原因是扭曲的要素价格体系的调整和经济增长方式的转变,数据也显示货币供给量的平稳增长和通货膨胀率存在背离的现象。因此,继续采取紧缩性货币政策应对当前通货膨胀是低效的,应当综合采取多种政策手段实现对经济的调控。